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  • #2,041
  • Edited 12:03pm Sep 6, 2010 11:11am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting paul1
Not much happening on eur/jpy
Trying a short on eur/gbp see what happens.
Why would you do that? Both weekly and daily are showing long. I see the FB on H4 but you are going counter trend.

If Daily was forming a FB, which it could be in the next day or two, I might consider a short on H4 FB.
  • #2,042
  • Sep 6, 2010 11:29am Sep 6, 2010 11:29am
Quoting paul1
Not much happening on eur/jpy
Trying a short on eur/gbp see what happens.
I am Long on eurgbp as weekly and monthly both show UP direction and on weekly 2 weeks back it was a flying buddha for going up
  • #2,043
  • Sep 6, 2010 11:43am Sep 6, 2010 11:43am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi all,

I was able to run a report in my demo platform and calculate pips manually in excel.

Week2 Hindsight:

Hindsight: EUR/JPY Long

Anticipation: Price will go up from the current 108.50 to the monthly 50% fib of 109.80 area before it retraces down to the 107.70 area. If 110 is broken, it will be a validation of my long hindsight. If it drops below 107 and never retraces, then I will consider my hindsight to be incorrect. Watch out for range bound week on the daily/4H for this week as a possibility and avoid...
Guys,

I added a 2nd pair yesterday to this week's project. I am going short hindsight on GBP/CAD. I have one leg building up @ 96pips at the moment from yesterday evening since 1.6026. E/J is going nowhere (as is the case whenever US stock markets are closed). My other two 50+pips soldiers from last week got swallowed during weekend gap so left with just one 175+pip leg.

Graeme,

I want to share a behaviour pattern emerging recently and wondering if you can comment if this is 'normal'. Perhaps this is emerging from my past trading strategies/philosophy to always try and net out and recover realized losses before the week ends. Starting of last week, I have negative $500 balance due to some lost soldiers. I quickly recovered that loss by taking (literally 'forcing' myself) some short term trades. Had I not closed those trades, they would still survive!

And now this week, I am experiencing same symptom but in a different manner. If I have 2 positions in the negative closed to hitting my SL and one in 50+ pips profit, I am getting tempted to close all 3 positions to net out as PA was not supporting direction movement to my favor. Would you recommend closing all 3 positions (sacrificing a captain to save a couple of soldiers!)? Adding 2nd pair is definitely taking a interesting spin on my behavior and mental attitude. Perhaps it is just me and my past multi-pair correlation strategies that has tuned my brain to think in a certain way :-

It would be interesting to know how to narrow your focal interpretation to just one pair/position and not worry about other open pairs/positions. This is going to be a challenge as it is a huge paradigm shift for me.

Just wanted to share my experience to see if anyone else is also struggling with this.

Best Regards,

- Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,044
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:10pm Sep 6, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting pip_daddy
Why would you do that? Both weekly and daily are showing long. I see the FB on H4 but you are going counter trend.

If Daily was forming a FB which it could be in the next day or two I might consider short as monthly trend is down.
I don't know. I think a case could be made for shorting this pair, although I'd personnally wait for additional confirmation. On my platform, the last 4 daily candles have closed as FBs suggesting that the daily uptrend is losing steam. Also, the weekly is currently running into resistance at the the 20 SMA while in a pullback from the long-term weekly downtrend. The hourly is still printing higher highs/lows, which tells me it's not ready to short yet, but that's where I'd be looking for weakness to show up before entering short. A retest of H1 trendline support appears to be imminent. Failure to hold would present a nice short opportunity. Just my $0.02, FWIW.

Kevin
  • #2,045
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:11pm Sep 6, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting cameron1st
TradeStar,

Not much of a trend there though (in the screenshot). Also hope you know that it's bank holiday in US (Labour Day).

True; but what annoyed me was, it just came down enough to take me out and started going back up again.
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #2,046
  • Edited 12:34pm Sep 6, 2010 12:16pm | Edited 12:34pm
Quoting Starvin4Pips
......On my platform, the last 4 daily candles have closed as FBs suggesting that the daily uptrend is losing steam.
Just because a candle closes above the 5ema does not make it a FB IMHO. You need confirmation from the next candle so those are not FB's by my definition.
  • #2,047
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:26pm Sep 6, 2010 12:26pm
Hi Pipseasy (Graeme),


Thanks for taking the time out to share your experience with us. I have come across this thread recently and look forward to participating in your two week forecast task (I know I am a little late, hopefully not to late). My heart sank a little when you posted earlier on in the thread that you wouldn't be posing after your initial posts (many thanks that you continued).

this post is in relation to your quiz regarding charts A & B regarding which was weekly and 5 min. I did try to PM instead, but am still a junior member as I don't post much.

My answer would be as follows

Chart A = 5 Min
Chart B = Weekly

Reason - I am presuming that the MA's are the same on both charts.
From my POV the MAs on the 5 min appear to be following PA alot more closely then on Chart B with the blue line looking at the shorter time period. The Gap between the MA's on the drop down Chart A also indicate to me that this is the lower timeframe.

Regards,

Mae
  • #2,048
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:33pm Sep 6, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting pip_daddy
Those are not FB's by my definition. You need confirmation from the next candle. Just because it closes above the 5ema does not make it a FB IMHO.
Hi pip_daddy,

Could you please expand a little on what you mean by "confirmation from the next candle" ? I have found some success by doing the following... I watch the FB form on 5M and then measur the size of the upper and lower wicks of FB and then take long or short position after about a minute into the open of next candle if price confirms moving in my direction.

May I add that this works only when you are staring at the chart watching the FB and next candle contruct. If I have arrived late and there are already 2-3 5M bars formed in the direction I 'would' have taken, then it is too late and I consider it as a miss opportunity.

Best Regards,

- Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,049
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:44pm Sep 6, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Scott,

Graeme has stated that he doesn't use a hard stop loss most of the time. He is relying on his superb entry skills to take advantage of momentum that will allow him to move SL to BE after a quick move of 15-20 pips. If the momentum doesn't hold, he will close the trade after one or two M5 candles and take a small loss. For those of us who are not so comfortable trading w/o SL, it may make sense to set a 20 pip SL right from the start or above/below the most recent swing high/low, but still watch price action and close the trade early if...
Okay, thanks. I have read his comments and I remember him saying this, but for some reason I felt I had missed something. Probably because I was up all night reading posts...things just got fuzzy.

Thanks again, this was all I wanted to know.

Scott
  • #2,050
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:47pm Sep 6, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting pip_daddy
Just because a candle closes above the 5ema does not make it a FB IMHO. You need confirmation from the next candle so those are not FB's by my definition.
I respectfully disagree on the definition of an FB. If it's outside the 5 & 10, it's an FB in my book. Totally agree on the confirmation part though, since we know that most FBs fail. Confirmation is subject to personal preference, though. For you it may be a break of the FB's low or high on the same TF, but for others it may be weakness showing up on a lower TF, which is how I have been trading them. It all depends on how aggressive or conservative one chooses to be.

Kevin
  • #2,051
  • Edited 2:55pm Sep 6, 2010 2:35pm | Edited 2:55pm
Quoting Starvin4Pips
I respectfully disagree on the definition of an FB. If it's outside the 5 & 10, it's an FB in my book. Totally agree on the confirmation part though, since we know that most FBs fail. Confirmation is subject to personal preference, though. For you it may be a break of the FB's low or high on the same TF, but for others it may be weakness showing up on a lower TF, which is how I have been trading them. It all depends on how aggressive or conservative one chooses to be.

Kevin
FB is similar to a pin bar. And like a pin bar you do not know it's a pin bar till you know what the candle is after it. That is my definition. Graeme explains FB's starting on post #832. You are correct that he says it is an FB after it closes and is above the 5ema. I added the requirement of the next candle to not go above this possible FB. It increases probability.

Just on a practical note, if you were to treat all candles that stay above 5ema as FB's you are going to have a much lower success rate. The example you give of the last 4 daily candles on E/G is a perfect example. If you traded all 4 as a FB all 4 would have been stopped out. More than likely at a loss.

By waiting till the next candle forms you are going to have a much higher probability IMHO. Sometimes it may mean getting in at a slightly lower (or higher) price and sometimes it may mean a slightly higher (or lower) SL but not always. We are not interested in short term gains if we are on this thread so does it really matter if we waited for 1 more candle?
  • #2,052
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:08pm Sep 6, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting pip_daddy
FB is similar to a pin bar. And like a pin bar you do not know it's a pin bar till you know what the candle is after it. That is my definition. Graeme explains FB's starting on post #832. You are correct that he says it is an FB after it closes and is above the 5ema. I added the requirement of the next candle to not go above this possible FB. The idea, like a pin bar, is that you have reached a crest of a wave and sellers (or buyers) have run out of steam and are being overrun by the other side. You cannot know that until you see the other side...
Not to beat a dead horse (Ooops! Too late!), but I think both approaches can be equally valid. It just depends on your comfort level. As you stated, you prefer to wait for the next candle to get confirmation that the FB (or pin bar) is really signalling a reversal. And I would agree that doing so is a sound strategy. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that in my book. What I will often do, as I stated before, is if I see an FB on a daily or H4 chart, I zoom in to M5 and look for weakness signalling a potential reversal. With the normal up and down of a daily or H4 candle, one can usually enter off M5 and get your stop to BE with out too much difficulty even if the FB ultimately turns out to be a lull in the action and the move continues in the original direction. Worse case is you get stopped out at BE or take a small loss, all for the opportunity to get on board at the very beginning of a possible trend reversal. That's a tradeoff I'll take over and over again and it's been working for me pretty well. At the end of the day, I don't think there's a wrong answer here. You just gotta do whatever works for you. As the saying goes, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

Kevin
  • #2,053
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:05pm Sep 6, 2010 4:05pm
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Not to beat a dead horse (Ooops! Too late!), but I think both approaches can be equally valid. It just depends on your comfort level. As you stated, you prefer to wait for the next candle to get confirmation that the FB (or pin bar) is really signalling a reversal. And I would agree that doing so is a sound strategy. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that in my book. What I will often do, as I stated before, is if I see an FB on a daily or H4 chart, I zoom in to M5 and look for weakness signalling a potential reversal. With the normal up and...

Im with you here Kevin,
A FB is a FB, what happens after it has formed either makes it a good one or a failed one, but when they form on a monthly, you would surely look for a good cut price area to get in on a smaller time frame, same on the weekly,daily,4hr, its all relative, if the FB is a good one then waiting till the next candle has formed will get you in for sure and make you feel better about it, but might be late too, could have taken the low risk option straight after it formed and got in several times.
as graeme say's FB's are hindsight, on the higher time frame, they give us one of our reasons to look smaller time frame for our low risk cut price entry.

just my 2 cents

cheers
Geoff
  • #2,054
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:54pm Sep 6, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting geoffrod
Im with you here Kevin,
A FB is a FB, what happens after it has formed either makes it a good one or a failed one, but when they form on a monthly, you would surely look for a good cut price area to get in on a smaller time frame, same on the weekly,daily,4hr, its all relative, if the FB is a good one then waiting till the next candle has formed will get you in for sure and make you feel better about it, but might be late too, could have taken the low risk option straight after it formed and got in several times.
as graeme say's FB's are hindsight,...
By your definition the current E/G daily candle is a FB. Even if your brokers Daily candle has not closed yet I'm guessing it will remain an FB. So are you taking shorts on E/G now or shortly and on what timeframe?

My new daily just started 1 hour ago and it's currently at approx the 50% fib line of the previous candle which by your definition is a FB.
  • #2,055
  • Sep 6, 2010 5:57pm Sep 6, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting pip_daddy
By your definition the current E/G daily candle is a FB. Even if your brokers Daily candle has not closed yet I'm guessing it will remain an FB. So are you taking shorts on E/G now or shortly and on what timeframe?

My new daily just started 1 hour ago and it's currently at approx the 50% fib line of the previous candle which by your definition is a FB.
The definition given by Graeme for FB is that the body and wick do not touch the 5MA.
He also said that the success rate is low. I believe he gave the figure of 40%.
He did also say that anyone can add filters depending on the risk appetite.
  • #2,056
  • Sep 6, 2010 6:17pm Sep 6, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting pip_daddy
By your definition the current E/G daily candle is a FB. Even if your brokers Daily candle has not closed yet I'm guessing it will remain an FB. So are you taking shorts on E/G now or shortly and on what timeframe?

My new daily just started 1 hour ago and it's currently at approx the 50% fib line of the previous candle which by your definition is a FB.

personally my analysis was done on gbp/usd, so i have not invested anytime into eur/gbp.

i hope i haven't offended you pip daddy, was not my intention, my definition as you call it is only that of how graeme brought forward the idea of FB's. I was just agreeing that the FB is an FB by his definition and therefore Marion's definition, if it doesn't touch the ems's, and it is or should be used as a hindsight, for me that is a good reason to start looking for razor sharp entries to participate in the market, if it agree's with my analysis, as i am not taking oposite direction trades as yet. if we aren't participating we cant be in on the big moves. using razor sharp entries reduces our level of exposure, to allow for the fact we will be wrong more times then right.If we are still trying to be right all the time or most of the time, we are bound to miss the move or most of it.

cheers
Geoff
  • #2,057
  • Edited 6:46pm Sep 6, 2010 6:36pm | Edited 6:46pm
Quoting geoffrod
personally my analysis was done on gbp/usd, so i have not invested anytime into eur/gbp.

i hope i haven't offended you pip daddy, was not my intention, my definition as you call it is only that of how graeme brought forward the idea of FB's. I was just agreeing that the FB is an FB by his definition and therefore Marion's definition, if it doesn't touch the ems's, and it is or should be used as a hindsight, for me that is a good reason to start looking for razor sharp entries to participate in the market, if it agree's with my analysis, as i am...
It was a legitimate question. Now that it appears a lot of people are doing it different than me I am curious what they are doing, when and how they are doing it.
  • #2,058
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:05pm Sep 6, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting pip_daddy
By your definition the current E/G daily candle is a FB. Even if your brokers Daily candle has not closed yet I'm guessing it will remain an FB. So are you taking shorts on E/G now or shortly and on what timeframe?

My new daily just started 1 hour ago and it's currently at approx the 50% fib line of the previous candle which by your definition is a FB.
Pip_daddy, I know your question was directed at Geoffrod, but since I have been in the middle of this discussion, I'd like to add my take. Please see charts below. The first one is the daily with the FB. The next one is an hourly which indicates an area of support, which if broken would signal an entry. The last one is the M5, which I'd be watching for the entry and managing the trade until I either move the SL to BE or close it manually if price moves wrong way. Once SL is at BE, we let the market decide. If daily FB fails later and the position is stopped out at BE, no biggie as very little was risked with the position.

Kevin
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_D1.JPG Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_H1.JPG Size: 60 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_M5.JPG Size: 55 KB
  • #2,059
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:14pm Sep 6, 2010 7:14pm
I am sorry if this has been asked before.
Which brokers are you guys using that allow you to have separate entries and not lump all positions of the same currency together?
  • #2,060
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:20pm Sep 6, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting the novice
I am sorry if this has been asked before.
Which brokers are you guys using that allow you to have separate entries and not lump all positions of the same currency together?
I have two live accounts that do what you're asking. MB Trading using MT4 platform and FXCM-UK.

Kevin
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