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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #251,181
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:10am Sep 6, 2010 7:10am
Quoting Gbp/usd
But wouldn't that make it unlikely as the U.S is the world reserve currency. I've looked into the likes of peter schiff arguments but i'm not convinced. For example how would people pay for oil, since the petro dollar governs the price of oil. Even if you wish to avoid dollars you still have to convert it into dollars just to pay for it.

In the Uk QE help raise the GBP/USD to a post recession high of 1.7100 but as soon as they removed QE the pound, over 6 months, descended to 1.4600. However i would say a weaker pound makes UK exports more competitive,...
MATE, the Arabs have already started talking about making oil sales in a bundle of currencies instead of just dollars... Chinese have started to get rid of Dollars and rather buy gold and Euro...

The Dollars only saving grace is they convinced the world to use them as a reserve currency, once that bails, its all over...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,182
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:11am Sep 6, 2010 7:11am
Quoting danielabas
actually i'm not sure it will reach 5325, but i'm not sure if i buy from now, either.anybody has an opinion what price GU will be bouncing back to north??
I wouldn't necessarily be looking to buy at 5325 as this is a critical resistance level. If it goes then we go down 100 pips. I would look to wait to see what sort of support it gets at 5325 before entering a long. MOO
  • #251,183
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:11am Sep 6, 2010 7:11am
Quoting nAVIN2007
becarefull folks..4hr got diverence building..pretty strong looking as well

Jip, got in at 5361 and looking to TP at around 5450...

S/l at 5335... Risking 2% for a possible 9% gain... Let's see
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,184
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:13am Sep 6, 2010 7:13am
Quoting HiCS
GBPUSD Doomed?? A pic speaks a thousand words.... but that looks its heading at least down to 5250.... slightly concerned i closed my short too early at 5390
Open another one then
  • #251,185
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:17am Sep 6, 2010 7:17am
Quoting OldReigatian
Open another one then
dont like to be too greedy, 90 pips from 5484 is enough for now
  • #251,186
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:21am Sep 6, 2010 7:21am
Quoting pawpaw1000
MATE, the Arabs have already started talking about making oil sales in a bundle of currencies instead of just dollars... Chinese have started to get rid of Dollars and rather buy gold and Euro...

The Dollars only saving grace is they convinced the world to use them as a reserve currency, once that bails, its all over...
hindsight is a wonderful thing but you assume to many variables. The Chinese are holding $ 2trillion worth of IOU bonds from U.S, Japan is holding $ 1 trillion IOU bonds as well. Now assuming they both wish to move into EUR/USD that would mean a selling of USD and buying of EUR. Such a move would be notice by both Europe & America. Japan would sell USD, hello, the USD/JPY would plummet as well thus hurting the Japanese economy by making exports too expensive; Since Japan is an export driven economy. This also factors in that assuming Europe agrees to sell them euros which i doubt as NATO is as much a military machine as an economic one too.

Now if you think the EUR is a safe haven just look at what happened to it over the Greece crisis it fell against the dollar, which means the world ran to buy USDs. This is how currencies move, someone buys and another sells.
Our beliefs are based on logic and the pursuit of clearity.
  • #251,187
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:21am Sep 6, 2010 7:21am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Jip, got in at 5361 and looking to TP at around 5450...

S/l at 5335... Risking 2% for a possible 9% gain... Let's see
buyers will likely come in once the previous weekly wick is tested..assuming we right!
  • #251,188
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:24am Sep 6, 2010 7:24am
  •  zigizum
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Not in a hurry too blow my account | 52 Posts
yes, if we brake 5326 we can goo faar...next res. I see at 5117..

for now...retrace to 5379 (23,6%) 54 (38,2%) and 50% at 5417...

just dont wanna asia trading be "unresonable" and swing the market again to 5489!

sorry: next BIG res. at 5117 before at 5285
  • #251,189
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:26am Sep 6, 2010 7:26am
Quoting zigizum
yes, if we brake 5326 we can goo faar...next res. I see at 5117..

for now...retrace to 5379 (23,6%) 54 (38,2%) and 50% at 5417...

just dont wanna asia trading be "unresonable" and swing the market again to 5489!
not going to go that far! see my pic above
  • #251,190
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:29am Sep 6, 2010 7:29am
Quoting mahathir
I have buy post from the morning.what should i do now,price getting lower n lower.want to cut loss or wait for retracement.anybody can give opinion?
for me cut the loss...
no one know when the cable will go up again...
i have same mistake when i was noob...
but now i will let -20 or -25 as SL....
if it hit SL i can try to get it back...
  • #251,191
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:31am Sep 6, 2010 7:31am
Quoting Gbp/usd
But wouldn't that make it unlikely as the U.S is the world reserve currency. I've looked into the likes of peter schiff arguments but i'm not convinced. For example how would people pay for oil, since the petro dollar governs the price of oil. Even if you wish to avoid dollars you still have to convert it into dollars just to pay for it.

In the Uk QE help raise the GBP/USD to a post recession high of 1.7100 but as soon as they removed QE the pound, over 6 months, descended to 1.4600. However i would say a weaker pound makes UK exports more competitive,...
As far as I can remember QE caused the move from 2.11 to 1.35 after election (on the spot) we recovered from 1.3500 towards 1.6000 so could be wrong but in my eyes market rewarded the end of QE......
In the long run strong economies have a strong currency, declining rates improving exports are not a strong sign to me (compare with pre-euro Germany).
With the reserve currency-argument you have a point imo, but I'm sure this argument will decline over the years because alternatives will be found.
Chinese are already nett sellers, Russians too.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #251,192
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:33am Sep 6, 2010 7:33am
Quoting HiCS
not going to go that far! see my pic above
It can go as far as it wants...I'm still waiting for your Fibre long @ 1.32 to come into profit from last month

For what it is worth I'm flat at the moment and won't be looking to come in until we've cleared the top / bottom shadow (doesn't matter which one) of the bullish hammer on the m15 at 11.45 BST by 10 pips.
  • #251,193
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:34am Sep 6, 2010 7:34am
Quoting dzulfx
for me cut the loss...
no one know when the cable will go up again...
i have same mistake when i was noob...
but now i will let -20 or -25 as SL....
if it hit SL i can try to get it back...
in my opinion you shouldnt use anything more than 20 pips... i used 10 pips this morning for my short from 5484... and then just trail and manage manually at same time... trade with me for precision
  • #251,194
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:34am Sep 6, 2010 7:34am
Just got an Iphone 4 can anyone advise a charting app that i can use?
cheers guys
cats
Trade what you see never what you think!
  • #251,195
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:35am Sep 6, 2010 7:35am
Quoting Gbp/usd
hindsight is a wonderful thing but you assume to many variables. The Chinese are holding $ 2trillion worth of IOU bonds from U.S, Japan is holding $ 1 trillion IOU bonds as well. Now assuming they both wish to move into EUR/USD that would mean a selling of USD and buying of EUR. Such a move would be notice by both Europe & America. Japan would sell USD, hello, the USD/JPY would plummet as well thus hurting the Japanese economy by making exports too expensive; Since Japan is an export driven economy. This also factors in that assuming Europe agrees...
Aah, didn't think of the NATO factor... But if they want to sell their Dollars surely no one can stop them? and since they are now the top producer of Gold, they can easily buy their own gold and also sell gold in Euro's???

Many ways to skin a cat?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,196
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:36am Sep 6, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Gbp/usd
hindsight is a wonderful thing but you assume to many variables. The Chinese are holding $ 2trillion worth of IOU bonds from U.S, Japan is holding $ 1 trillion IOU bonds as well. Now assuming they both wish to move into EUR/USD that would mean a selling of USD and buying of EUR. Such a move would be notice by both Europe & America. Japan would sell USD, hello, the USD/JPY would plummet as well thus hurting the Japanese economy by making exports too expensive; Since Japan is an export driven economy. This also factors in that assuming Europe agrees...
Well said.
  • #251,197
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:37am Sep 6, 2010 7:37am
Quoting USD-Bear
As far as I can remember QE caused the move from 2.11 to 1.35 after election (on the spot) we recovered from 1.3500 towards 1.6000 so could be wrong but in my eyes market rewarded the end of QE......
Your timing is out
  • #251,198
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:39am Sep 6, 2010 7:39am
Quoting HiCS
offer still stands t corner forex market
There is a programmers thread on FF, you can try in there or contact SwingMan, look him up under member's list and pm him. He's a great programmer, always looking for something new.

Be sure to share it in here when it is done. I often use 1 min for entries as well.

PS a 'river box' forming on the 15 min.
river box = area of price consolidation
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #251,199
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:40am Sep 6, 2010 7:40am
Quoting Gbp/usd
hindsight is a wonderful thing but you assume to many variables. The Chinese are holding $ 2trillion worth of IOU bonds from U.S, Japan is holding $ 1 trillion IOU bonds as well. Now assuming they both wish to move into EUR/USD that would mean a selling of USD and buying of EUR. Such a move would be notice by both Europe & America. Japan would sell USD, hello, the USD/JPY would plummet as well thus hurting the Japanese economy by making exports too expensive; Since Japan is an export driven economy. This also factors in that assuming Europe agrees...
Agreed there are no single "currency" alternatives atm, but other bases can be found, assume a new reserve currency based on commodity-prices that could do the job
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #251,200
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:41am Sep 6, 2010 7:41am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Aah, didn't think of the NATO factor... But if they want to sell their Dollars surely no one can stop them? and since they are now the top producer of Gold, they can easily buy their own gold and also sell gold in Euro's???

Many ways to skin a cat?
So the EUR becomes the reserve currency du jour? Or, perhaps, the JPY?

The restructure of Irish and Greek debt hasn't yet happened, but it's very likely on its way. As for the JPY, will the Japanese government stand idly by, as their currency appreciates at breackneck speed, crushing the export sector or will they simply counter this appreciation by ramping up the printing presses to monetise their gargantuan public sector debt load, which far exceeds that of the US.

Then we have the CNY? Don't make me laugh. The internationalisation of this currency is many, many years away.
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