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  • #2,001
  • Sep 4, 2010 6:14am Sep 4, 2010 6:14am
That replied to a question I had as well, thank you very much to Graeme and TradeStar.
  • #2,002
  • Sep 4, 2010 8:04am Sep 4, 2010 8:04am
Hi Graeme,

The eur-jpy was the pair I chose for the assignment. My hindsight was down. I had a bad week and I didn't took any long, even if it was temptating. Your post make a lot of sence.
Thanks,
Mel

Quoting pipEASY
Good question, Tradestar

eur/jpy is showing a conflict of interest between monthly and weekly.

It is the conflict of interest that causes a trader to be uncertain of what to expect.

Do they take into consideration of monthly chart?

or

Do they take into consideration of weekly chart?

eur/jpy last month closed below the previous 2 months. This is a good sign. Price currently at 50% fib of last month candle which is nothing special (almost classic). If price retraces any higher than 50% I would be cautious but for...
  • #2,003
  • Sep 4, 2010 8:37am Sep 4, 2010 8:37am
This was my comment last weekend:
Chosen pair: USDCAD
Analysis:
"Last week was significant in as much as we have a pin bar that could signal possible downward move soon, is just above 10 ema so is an FB, it has bounced off, (close to) what has been significant resistance for several months, which is also a 00 figure.
Note that the range low is not to far from the neckline of H&S formation started in April.
The pin itself is over 200 pips, which was established in 12 hours of trading from Sunday Open. The long wicks show a great deal of change in mood swings between buyers and sellers but the consistency and depth of the range allows for ample opportunities to profit from the swings.
The last 2 years have shown significant pressure to downside with continuing dollar weakness and there is no reason to presume this will change in near term.

Anticipate: If there is a compelling move to the downside in early part of week will anticipate shorting on any signals, in further anticipation of a move to the range low over the next 2-3 weeks and a possible breakout further; however aware that last week has been mainly up and a retrace towards 1.0700 is very possible, and given that pin is over 200 pips will take the long side watching for a bounce around 1.0650, no higher than 1.0700".
Despite last comment missed high.
Strategy: Sell stops at Vol BOs of 4 Hr and FBs on 5 min.

35 trades:
5 BE
18 losers -250 pips - avg 14 pips (of these 6 were buys on 5min FBs)
Closed 7 for +650 pips
Unrealised 5 for + 700 pips

Reflections:
Would not have been so successful without NFP.
Surprisingly broker also opened sell stops on the button immediately following NFP!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hr usd cad.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #2,004
  • Sep 4, 2010 9:00am Sep 4, 2010 9:00am
Hello Guys,

I maintained live micro accounts with Interbankfx and Alpari UK. Please see the attached charts on the closing prices on gpbusd. One is up and the other is down. Anyone care to comment?

Thanks,
chonghm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: interbank fx quotes.jpg Size: 156 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: alpari quotes.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #2,005
  • Sep 4, 2010 9:14am Sep 4, 2010 9:14am
Quoting chonghm
Hello Guys,

I maintained live micro accounts with Interbankfx and Alpari UK. Please see the attached charts on the closing prices on gpbusd. One is up and the other is down. Anyone care to comment?

Thanks,
chonghm

I always stick to opening 1701 hr NY time.
You have to use FXPro and Windsor Mt4 for this timing.
  • #2,006
  • Sep 4, 2010 9:17am Sep 4, 2010 9:17am
Quoting chonghm
Hello Guys,

I maintained live micro accounts with Interbankfx and Alpari UK. Please see the attached charts on the closing prices on gpbusd. One is up and the other is down. Anyone care to comment?

Thanks,
chonghm
Looks like Interbank closed their trading session exactly one hour prior to Alpari, as the Alpari chart contains exactly 12 more M5 candles (= 1 hour). I know some brokers go offline at 4PM New York time and others continue to allow trading until 5PM. Interbank appears to be the former and Alpari the latter.

Kevin
  • #2,007
  • Sep 4, 2010 11:30am Sep 4, 2010 11:30am
finished 134 pages of great wisdom . the best ever thread in FF
  • #2,008
  • Sep 4, 2010 12:28pm Sep 4, 2010 12:28pm
Hi Graeme, Hi fellow traders,
Last week I chosed the AUDCAD. Hindsight bullish. I could not be at the computer for entering as by Graemes rules, so I set a buy order that got me in at 9528. I could reach a computer on wednestday and put a stop loss at entry + 1pip.
The next day I was out. I did not have any chance to add to the position.
The pair is now bellow my enter price.
That was all for me last week. Overall a great experience.

Now, I am not sure if I will continue with that pair, as EURGBP is tempting since last week.

Thank you again and see you next week
Muntuntu
Patience is magic
  • #2,009
  • Sep 4, 2010 3:32pm Sep 4, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good question, Tradestar

eur/jpy is showing a conflict of interest between monthly and weekly.

It is the conflict of interest that causes a trader to be uncertain of what to expect.

Do they take into consideration of monthly chart?

or

Do they take into consideration of weekly chart?

eur/jpy last month closed below the previous 2 months. This is a good sign. Price currently at 50% fib of last month candle which is nothing special (almost classic). If price retraces any higher than 50% I would be cautious but for...
September has started and we know the monthly open price. When the market opens next week we will have a new weekly open price. A weekly open above the monthly open would mean price is up for the month. Price dropping from the weekly open would mean price is down for the week. There is a conflict, yes? Price dropping below the monthly open would end the conflict, no? On the other hand, price going up above last's week's high price would indicator price is moving up. Would it not be wise to wait and let others resolve the conflict prior to entering a trade?
  • #2,010
  • Sep 4, 2010 4:43pm Sep 4, 2010 4:43pm
Hello Graeam,

I am a regular visitor to FF and few other forums, but I never posted anything on these forums. Some how I was knocked by your thread in the 1st week of August. I read few of your posts (that what I do with other threads too) and it encouraged me to read more. Your knowledge on the subject and the way you taking the topic simply amazing.

I decided to read each and every posts in this thread and finally I completed 133 pages of wisdom on the NFP day. This is one the best threads I have ever read on any forums.

Nowadays, it is very difficult to find a person like you. You spend your valuable time to teach other fellow traders without any expectation, you spend lots of time to prepare your lesson, you spend hell lot of time to answer every question asked, you make sure everyone in this thread understand your teaching.

So, this is my time to pay appreciation and big thanks to you (and others in this thread), THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Keep up the good work . We may from different faith, but I pray my God for his blessing on you.

I will start practicing your teaching from next week onward and will participate with your assignments.

-English is not my 1st language, so apologies for mistakes-

Thank you,

-maaj-
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #2,011
  • Sep 4, 2010 5:04pm Sep 4, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
September has started and we know the monthly open price....
I believe NY is closed Monday. Not sure what effect it will have but something to keep in mind.
  • #2,012
  • Sep 4, 2010 5:29pm Sep 4, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
September has started and we know the monthly open price. When the market opens next week we will have a new weekly open price. A weekly open above the monthly open would mean price is up for the month. Price dropping from the weekly open would mean price is down for the week. There is a conflict, yes? Price dropping below the monthly open would end the conflict, no? On the other hand, price going up above last's week's high price would indicator price is moving up. Would it not be wise to wait and let others resolve the conflict prior to entering...
Good question, tjfxtrader

Any trader with some degree of experience in trading will all agree that market indeed often have periods with conflicting interest in the difference of the timeframe.

4hr says UP
1hr says DOWN
Weekly says UP

and so on.

This is a normal part of randomness in the markets. Like any method/ideology/system in the markets there are both pros and cons:

If, you wait for the conflict of interest to line up between 2 different timeframes before entering, most often you will arrive late to the trend and most of the valuable and volatile movement have already happened. You can still create profit if the trend continues on for extended period of time.

If, you believe you have the flexibility to participate into the market via a low-risk entry at given opportunities for both buy/sell and attempt placing positions for the next upcoming big movement, I recommend using conflict of interest on daily and 4hr and nothing less. The reason is that any conflict of interest on lower timeframes, e.g; 4hr/1hr is too insignificant + potential profiting range too small (scale too small) + not enough space to move around. Eur cross has less than 30 pip range on most of the 1hr bar, which means it is very hard to quickly enter and exit when 2 pip spread is 7% of the movement already.

I personally prefer conflict of interest between monthly and weekly.

Sooner or later it will line up to one side of the direction. But I do know that waiting for the line up to happen first and then entering would have cut my potential profit greatly.

I anticipate and watch price action at important areas and for the example of eur/jpy I will watch the tip of the lower wick, 50% fib of the weekly candle that just closed, tip of the upper wick. However, I will also keep in mind if the intended movement of this week is volatile Im aware that less than 33% retrace before a move that continues all the way until friday. And to respect that I will have 1 or 2 positions early in a low risk entry to respect that. If they hit it will be big, if they dont I know I have to see what the market is telling me.

I hope this information helps.

Kindest Regards,

Graeme
  • #2,013
  • Sep 4, 2010 7:21pm Sep 4, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good question, tjfxtrader

Any trader with some degree of experience in trading will all agree that market indeed often have periods with conflicting interest in the difference of the timeframe.

4hr says UP
1hr says DOWN
Weekly says UP

and so on.

This is a normal part of randomness in the markets. Like any method/ideology/system in the markets there are both pros and cons:

If, you wait for the conflict of interest to line up between 2 different timeframes before entering, most often you will arrive...
Thanks Graeme for another round of wisdom. I have some questions in regards to this week's assignment...

(1) is it alright to change last week's hindsight of my chosen pair E/J into this week's assignment?
(2) is it alright to add one more pair in our exercise for this week to experience the effects of multi-pair hindsight.
(3) is it alright to do experience some diversification (counter-trend/hindsight) this week ? I have 3 legs surviving from last week (221, 51 and 29 pips=302 pips) and would like to experience some diversification if the price continues upward in my direction past 500 pips.
(4) Would we get any further changes/instructions this weekend from you for Week 2 of this assignment?

Just want to make sure what I do this week won't affect the flow of this thread and your future teachings.

Best Regards,

- Vee
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PipEasy-EURJPY- 2010-09-04 update2.jpg Size: 53 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,014
  • Edited 9:01pm Sep 4, 2010 8:43pm | Edited 9:01pm
First off I must say I'm very impressed by the number of trades some of you guys have taken in a week. It appears many of you are doing a great job of minimising your loses while keeping a scout in the game.

My pair for the week was EURJPY with a hindsight of down and a weekly FB that closed below the 10/5EMA so I am aware of the possible reversal.

I had 10 trades 2 long positions and 8 short positions. Since my hindsight was down I concentrated on short positions.

Stats:

10 trades

3 BE
4 Positive
1 Negative
2 Floating loss at the moment

My strategy was to trade 2 lots on each position and take small gains and cover the SL of the open position with the gain from the closed position.

I have +103 pips gained, 6 pips loss and -71 pips as a floating loss at the close of the week. For me, worst case senario the week will be Break Even. Considering Price action for a large part of the week was in the long direction I feel I did a reasonable job at managing my positions and not taking any large loses.
  • #2,015
  • Sep 4, 2010 9:03pm Sep 4, 2010 9:03pm
Good morning, all

Thank you all for the updates. Everyone is doing well and it is all part of the learning curve.

In regards to answering VEEFX;

1. If your weekly hindsight did not work last week or still pending (price did not close against your preferred intended movement) it is wise to flick through the pairs and pre-selct a new pair. For example, eur/jpy is not a prime candidate for this week at the moment.

2. In regards to trading multiple pairs, you are welcome to attempt trading multiple pairs if you believe your actions are fast enough to handle the changes of price action on the fly. Many readers are having difficulties with one pair and if so please continue practicing one pair for now. For all readers who was successful with last week hindsight then you could try multiple pairs this coming week.

3. Diversification is at your own personal leisure. I have mentioned few times but as long as you are not diversifying for a loss and you have allowed time for the positions to grow then please go ahead and diversify. You will find that if you diversify early = you guarantee a small profit but stop the potential bigger profit. If you take slightly more risk and let the position grow or close on breakeven = you are aiming for the bigger growth but less accuracy. Its give or take.

4. There will be no major changes to the project however few recommendation that I will address little later.

Hope this answers your questions, VEEFX.

Kindest Regards,

Graeme
  • #2,016
  • Sep 4, 2010 11:15pm Sep 4, 2010 11:15pm
Quoting maaj
Hello Graeam,

I am a regular visitor to FF and few other forums, but I never posted anything on these forums. Some how I was knocked by your thread in the 1st week of August. I read few of your posts (that what I do with other threads too) and it encouraged me to read more. Your knowledge on the subject and the way you taking the topic simply amazing.

I decided to read each and every posts in this thread and finally I completed 133 pages of wisdom on the NFP day. This is one the best threads I have ever read on any forums.

Nowadays, it...




I feel exactly the same. Though I have been trading for years, there is always something to learn and review. You're off to a good start, Graem. Please keep up the good work.
  • #2,017
  • Sep 5, 2010 12:16am Sep 5, 2010 12:16am
Graeme and gang,

Thanks for your very constructive thought provoking lessons and interactions. I like all your styles. A very small token for all looking at alerts to cell phones. This one is free and in my experience is sufficent. See you after another in depth study of what has been taught thus far. No need to respond. Thanks Graeme, thanks all.

http://www.alertfx.com/admin/about.asp
T
  • #2,018
  • Edited 3:03pm Sep 5, 2010 3:03am | Edited 3:03pm
Hi guys,
I know this has been said many many times before but what an excellent and positive thread, it’s taken three days to get to the end of it and yes my brain does hurt a bit but well worth it. This is the type of trading style that I think will fit for me, just need to practise practice practice.

I have a quick question, during the week I’m normally mentally busy at work so the weekends and evenings are good for me but obviously the market is closed for most of the weekend which seems like a lot of practice time I’m wasting are there simulators or such out there that you guys would recommend?

I have chosen a pair for the week due to monthly and weekly heading down (would have been good to get there in Feb 09) I only got position on late Friday but currently 39pips and counting.

Thanks again and hope everyone has a good week.
  • #2,019
  • Sep 5, 2010 3:45am Sep 5, 2010 3:45am
http://www.ozforex.com.au/reference/...ket-prices.asp

Found this,Just a bit of background to what behind price action.

I think the big moves are made by large companies who need a particular currency to do business with other companies not by speculative currency traders like us.
Therefore i believe its impossible for us without inside knowledge to know when major companies are going to need large sums of a particular currency.
So as greame has taught us. And i believe is the best way to be involved in any major price move is to have small low risk entries and when it happens it happens. and stack,stack,stack,stack. lol
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,020
  • Edited 9:18pm Sep 5, 2010 7:46am | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting cumquat
Hi guys,
I know this has been said many many times before but what an excellent and positive thread, it’s taken three days to get to the end of it and yes my brain does hurt a bit but well worth it. This is the type of trading style that I think will fit for me, just need to practice practice practice.

I have a quick question, during the week I’m normally mentally busy at work so the weekends and evenings are good for me but obviously the market is closed for most of the weekend which seems like a lot of practice time I’m wasting...
cumquat,

Here are two simulators that I use. Ron's simulator (BacktestTrader) allows for stacking of positions and I have used it to practice the approach outlined on this forum. However, I believe the other Trading Simulator might offer an ability to update to BE via the scripts and thus will better represent that aspect of Graeme's teachings but, only on one position at a time. In my mind this is less useful unless you are willing to enter, get to BE then speed up the simulator to the end of the week to determine if the leg has died or is still in profit. Then you would reset and find another entry to take, move to BE and rinse and repeat. The only outcome would be validation of one week of leg viability at a time. I don't believe either will total allow for implementation of the full methodology.

That being said, using Ron's this past weekend I have increased my breakout/FB entries to my satisfaction. Incremental wins are what I am looking for and to be able to use these simulators on focused aspects of the method is just what I needed. My intention is to practice several hundred entries per week across many pairs to perfect my "one thing". I will practice on the weekends like yourself.


Update:

Using the BackTestTrader enter each position on the M5 TF with no SL and 24 PIP TP (8 PIP ATR on M5 TF) settings.

My Simulator Practice Criteria:

Each Candle Close (pause simulator)...
- (1) is position in negative by -10 PIPs (or other SL selected by trader) or more,
Then close position
- Else continue to hold position open until close of next candle

On the Open of Fourth Candle/Close of Third (pause simulator)...
- (2) is position in Positive territory by greater than spread + ATR (selected by trader),
Then move to close with minimum profit short of TP target (capture gain)
- (3) Else Close position as loss or BE

Take Profit reached prior to close of Third Candle
- (4)

Results will show the following (descriptions are my opinions):
(1) Positions taken with poor judgment on direction (i.e. flow of market)
(2) Positions taken with good judgment on direction & moderate momentum
(3) Positions lacking sufficient momentum or neutral market direction
(4) Positions taken with excellent direction & momentum

Export the Strategy Tester report to evaluate the results and keep track of progress towards proficiency levels of your choosing.

Understand that this does not evaluate your hindsight being correct. Simulators and the strategy testing interface do not allow for switching between

Time Frames to evaluate hindsight. It is meant to evaluate your entry skills in seeing developing momentum using whatever entry methodology you are trying to learn. In my case, I am trying to better my entries using Flying Buddhas and Breakouts similar to Graeme's demonstrated approach.

Disclaimer: None of what I have outlined should be misconstrued as in alignment with or endorsed by Graeme's teachings or opinions. I am simply stating what I am doing to try and better my skills needed to apply Graeme's teachings. And as always, I will be adjusting this to suit my internal feedback/results and progress.

Cheers,

RDWatkins

http://www.forexmt4.com/mt_yahoo/Tra...0simulator.zip
http://www.forexmt4.com/BacktestTrader/
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