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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #250,981
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:36am Sep 3, 2010 9:36am
selling from 5446
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #250,982
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:40am Sep 3, 2010 9:40am
Quoting cloggie

Y'all have a good weekend and see you guys 'n girls on Monday, the start of normal trading after a pretty good summer actually in retrospect.

Oh and for those intraday traders, I still see no shorts out there on Cable.
Happy week end to you too Cloggie.
Thanks again
  • #250,983
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:55am Sep 3, 2010 9:55am
Quoting iqyu5an

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=639
will you share your indicator? thanks before
  • #250,984
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:35am Sep 3, 2010 10:35am
Quoting Yngwie
selling from 5446
what is your tp?
yesterday was good, today is the best, tomorrow is amazing.....
  • #250,985
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:04am Sep 3, 2010 11:04am
Quoting iqyu5an
Happy weekend brother javajames....
Now I do see ur bullish bias. I managed a short scalp to the downside before it recooperated to the north. Are you holding your long over the weekend? Ive been hesitant to hold longer term positions over the weekend...
  • #250,986
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:08am Sep 3, 2010 11:08am
As I alluded in an earlier post I have been doing some work on correlated pairs and fair value of one pair compared to the rest of the currency pairs.

This is not the same as the Dixy, which weighs the value of the dollar compared to weighted currency, I just look at fair value based on all cross currencies that have either GBP or USD in its pair. It takes quite a bit of computing power and a good data feed to calcutate the fair value, but it helps me as another tool in the toolbox to stay on the right side of the market.

Today was a perfect example of dollar dropping against all the cross currencies due to the search of risk in the marketplace.

This picture shows the current fair value with the green line of the Indy showing the fair value of Sterling and the Blue line the fair value of the dollar.

This clearly shows that there still are no shorts in sight. The ma on the chart is the 200 ema.

So until the fair value of Sterling and Dollar converge as indicated by all GBP and USD currency pairs, there is no reason to short this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fair value correlated pairs.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #250,987
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:20am Sep 3, 2010 11:20am
Here is a second view on M5 of the fair value of both Sterling and Dollar and you can clearly see how the fairvalue of the dollar dropped below Sterling once NFP came out and how it has stayed there since then.

Again, the ema is the 200. This is just a very good way of looking at correlation of currency pairs.

Blue is fair value of the dollar and green is the fair value of Sterling based on all crossses.

Again the intraday bias has remained long, and won't change until the fair value of either Sterling or Dollar changes in relation to all crosses.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fair value correlated pairs 2.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #250,988
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:25am Sep 3, 2010 11:25am
Hey cloggie,
Have you tried the overlay chart strategy? what do you think of it?

Thanks in advance for your time
  • #250,989
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:27am Sep 3, 2010 11:27am
Quoting need-help
Hey cloggie,
Have you tried the overlay chart strategy? what do you think of it?

Thanks in advance for your time

I quickly discounted that because you can only overlay a handful of pairs before it becomes cluttered, I look at the correlation of 40 pairs to see how each of the base currencies react.
  • #250,990
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:32am Sep 3, 2010 11:32am
Hi,
I am particularly referring to this strategy where you put only two currencies on a single chart i.e GU and EU

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=160912


Quoting cloggie
I quickly discounted that because you can only overlay a handful of pairs before it becomes cluttered, I look at the correlation of 40 pairs to see how each of the base currencies react.
  • #250,991
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:39am Sep 3, 2010 11:39am
For the shorts would be good looking for retrase to NFP pre-release 1.5410.
Good numbers are suggesting it.
  • #250,992
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:53am Sep 3, 2010 11:53am
Quoting cloggie
Here is a second view on M5 of the fair value of both Sterling and Dollar and you can clearly see how the fairvalue of the dollar dropped below Sterling once NFP came out and how it has stayed there since then.

Again, the ema is the 200. This is just a very good way of looking at correlation of currency pairs.

Blue is fair value of the dollar and green is the fair value of Sterling based on all crossses.

Again the intraday bias has remained long, and won't change until the fair value of either Sterling or Dollar changes in relation to all crosses....
i don't know cloggie, but on my chart 1.5457 as R1 and 1.5450 my manual s/r are pretty good holding the price
yesterday was good, today is the best, tomorrow is amazing.....
  • #250,993
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:14pm Sep 3, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting danielabas
i don't know cloggie, but on my chart 1.5457 as R1 and 1.5450 my manual s/r are pretty good holding the price
R1 based on London is 5448, and that did not stop it. Like I said, correlation and fair value is just another tool in the toolbox, no point shorting Sterling when its fair value is still diverging from the dollar and the dollar is still dropping in value in correlation to every currency except for the Yen.
  • #250,994
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:15pm Sep 3, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting need-help
Hi,
I am particularly referring to this strategy where you put only two currencies on a single chart i.e GU and EU

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=160912

Not enough for me, I want to see fair value based on all pairs, not just 2. I look at fair value of the underlying currency itself, including against uncorrelated pairs. So it is a bit more then just correlation.
  • #250,995
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:19pm Sep 3, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting cloggie
As I alluded in an earlier post I have been doing some work on correlated pairs and fair value of one pair compared to the rest of the currency pairs.

This is not the same as the Dixy, which weighs the value of the dollar compared to weighted currency, I just look at fair value based on all cross currencies that have either GBP or USD in its pair. It takes quite a bit of computing power and a good data feed to calcutate the fair value, but it helps me as another tool in the toolbox to stay on the right side of the market.

Today was a perfect example...
what is that indicator sir ?
  • #250,996
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:20pm Sep 3, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting dil
what is that indicator sir ?

It is not an indicator, it is driven of a SQL server.
  • #250,997
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:44pm Sep 3, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting cloggie
R1 based on London is 5448, and that did not stop it.

For those still desperate enough to be in a trade, next stop is 5472. I am just here killing time watching the footy in my tradingroom, the Mrs hates it with a passion.
  • #250,998
  • Sep 3, 2010 1:05pm Sep 3, 2010 1:05pm
My Plan goes nice
Quoting egkid
Long e/[email protected] , Added @ 1.2800
Long g/u @1.5350 , Added 1.5440
  • #250,999
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:59pm Sep 3, 2010 9:59pm
Quoting dashboard
will you share your indicator? thanks before
Hi...

I just standard mt4 indicator... such as fibonacci and moving average

Thank you.

Rgds, Iqyu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=665
not euphoria follower
  • #251,000
  • Sep 3, 2010 10:02pm Sep 3, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting joemiami
Now I do see ur bullish bias. I managed a short scalp to the downside before it recooperated to the north. Are you holding your long over the weekend? Ive been hesitant to hold longer term positions over the weekend...
Hi bro joe...

Yes... if my long term chart say to do it . MM is the heart

Happy weekend,

Rgds,Iqyu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=665
not euphoria follower
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