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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #250,901
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:39am Sep 3, 2010 7:39am
I am glad I stayed on the side lines as I do not understand what happened there ??

good news for the dollar made the pound stronger ??

anyone able to shed some light on the subject
  • #250,902
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:39am Sep 3, 2010 7:39am
Quoting pipgame
thank you very much, "I can see clearly now"

yes, I have much to learn......

See how this develops now, good news, dollar is dropping, the big boys don't get paid to hold cash, equities up, cable up.
  • #250,903
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:42am Sep 3, 2010 7:42am


btw, dragon is tearing bears a new a-hole 140++ pipperoos in zero time
Thank You
  • #250,904
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:42am Sep 3, 2010 7:42am
Quoting cloggie
See how this develops now, good news, dollar is dropping, the big boys don't get paid to hold cash, equities up, cable up.
it works for all news of USD?
why UJ is going up?
  • #250,905
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:42am Sep 3, 2010 7:42am
Quoting Dayboy001
I am glad I stayed on the side lines as I do not understand what happened there ??

good news for the dollar made the pound stronger ??

anyone able to shed some light on the subject

No, the dollar and yen are weakening, no point in holding "safe" cash. Trading news is risk-on risk-of, today it is risk-on
  • #250,906
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:43am Sep 3, 2010 7:43am
Quoting wormboy


btw, dragon is tearing bears a new a-hole 140++ pipperoos in zero time
, huge inverted head and shoulder pattern , took 2 days you can bet the bears are getting whacked, ah geez Im holding a stick lol
  • #250,907
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:44am Sep 3, 2010 7:44am
Quoting cloggie
No, the dollar and yen are weakening, no point in holding "safe" cash. Trading news is risk-on risk-of, today it is risk-on

Do you tend to see these retrace as good news means more foreign investors buying ther dollar?
  • #250,908
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:45am Sep 3, 2010 7:45am
Quoting wormboy


btw, dragon is tearing bears a new a-hole 140++ pipperoos in zero time
i had a long on dragon But average price was not so good, long too early this week ( but i get 30 pips on this move) i close it at the WP, but i think you long on GU is better
Trade with the momentum
  • #250,909
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:47am Sep 3, 2010 7:47am
Quoting cloggie
No, the dollar and yen are weakening, no point in holding "safe" cash. Trading news is risk-on risk-of, today it is risk-on
so its like selling safe haven currency such as franc yen and gold?
i am kinda confused with the Dow Jones thingy though..
Which affect which.. usd affect dow jones or dow jones affect usd..
cos US news is good > stock goes up > dollar goes down..
  • #250,910
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:47am Sep 3, 2010 7:47am
Quoting Dayboy001
Do you tend to see these retrace as good news means more foreign investors buying ther dollar?

No it is simpler then that, when the news is bad, traders want to hold the safe currencies, USD, CHF, YEN. When the news is good, they need to put that money to work, they don't get paid for holding cash, so they sell of the safe currencies and buy equities and other risk.

This was not just a good number for August, but July was revised to the good side also, a double whammy.
  • #250,911
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:52am Sep 3, 2010 7:52am
Quoting Phate
so its like selling safe haven currency such as franc yen and gold?
i am kinda confused with the Dow Jones thingy though..
Which affect which.. usd affect dow jones or dow jones affect usd..
cos US news is good > stock goes up > dollar goes down..

Correct, when times are bad you hold cash, gold and silver, when times are good you need to put that money to work so you buy risk and sell the cash. So on good news you see dollar, yen, swissy, gold down and oil, crosscurrencies, equities up.
  • #250,912
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:52am Sep 3, 2010 7:52am
Quoting cloggie
No it is simpler then that, when the news is bad, traders want to hold the safe currencies, USD, CHF, YEN. When the news is good, they need to put that money to work, they don't get paid for holding cash, so they sell of the safe currencies and buy equities and other risk.

This was not just a good number for August, but July was revised to the good side also, a double whammy.
Well, if the dollar goes up, we can say then that the news is good therefore the dollar goes up. If it goes down we say trader need to put money to work. What's the use for fundamentals again?
  • #250,913
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:54am Sep 3, 2010 7:54am
I am very confused too. Is this a retracement? or the initial reaction was wrong? Is it changing the direction now???
  • #250,914
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:54am Sep 3, 2010 7:54am
bears are well in the game, careful bulls....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.JPG Size: 118 KB
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #250,915
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:56am Sep 3, 2010 7:56am
what a spikes in all the currencies i trade... made a nice 50 fast pips from gbp/usd... now is falling... probably more than it gained but its enough trade for today - got into the right direction of two more spikes.
  • #250,916
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:57am Sep 3, 2010 7:57am
Quoting Bull_Bear
bears are well in the game, careful bulls....

Yup, battle between the fundies and the techies, cable up on drop in dollar due to good news, plenty of sellers out there to top it out. Battle between the equity traders and the currency traders. The big funds are selling dollars to buy equities, the currency traders are gobling that up as liquidity providers, the currency traders then see opportunity to pass on the risk and the sellers come back out again.

And retailers wonder why they get burned on trading the news. Just wait for the liquidity to level of to get the proper direction. We are in the last day of summer trading and volumes are still thin.

I still don't see the bears winning this convincingly. The key in this will be a sustained rally on the equity side.
  • #250,917
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:00am Sep 3, 2010 8:00am
Quoting cloggie
Correct, when times are bad you hold cash, gold and silver, when times are good you need to put that money to work so you buy risk and sell the cash. So on good news you see dollar, yen, swissy, gold down and oil, crosscurrencies, equities up.
okay.. so let me type my understanding of this whole thing..

so when the news is bad... those big boys will buy USD n other safe stuff...
they dun buy stock just yet or even selling their stock on hand which pull the stock down .

When the news is good .. they will buy stock with their USD in hand...
thus stock goes up.
so those retracement is probably dollar buying to buy stock??
damn i getting even more confuse.. haha
as they say ignorance is probably a blessing
  • #250,918
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:02am Sep 3, 2010 8:02am
The big portfolio (bond and equity) flows move through the UJ (not the GU and EUR).

So far it's not been whipping like the GU and EUR, where the flows are not as large. UJ 84.50 is the line in the sand.
  • #250,919
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:03am Sep 3, 2010 8:03am
Quoting cloggie
Yup, battle between the fundies and the techies, cable up on drop in dollar due to good news, plenty of sellers out there to top it out. Battle between the equity traders and the currency traders. The big funds are selling dollars to buy equities, the currency traders are gobling that up as liquidity providers, the currency traders then see opportunity to pass on the risk and the sellers come back out again.

And retailers wonder why they get burned on trading the news. Just wait for the liquidity to level of to get the proper direction. We are...

Okay. So, I'm now expecting that when the NY market opens, there'll be more equity purchases. Is that in line with your thinking?
  • #250,920
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:03am Sep 3, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Phate
okay.. so let me type my understanding of this whole thing..

so when the news is bad... those big boys will buy USD n other safe stuff...
they dun buy stock just yet or even selling their stock on hand which pull the stock down .

When the news is good .. they will buy stock with their USD in hand...
thus stock goes up.
so those retracement is probably dollar buying to buy stock??
damn i getting even more confuse.. haha
as they say ignorance is probably a blessing

Holding cash does not pay the bills, so when the economy is growing and the news is good, you need to put that cash to work so you sell the cash and buy the riskier investments. You also need to keep in mind that most of the big MF's are not allowed to short stocks, they can only unwind their positions into cash, so they don't make an income, they start buying stocks again when the news is good and they sell of their cash piles, that's where the currency traders make the money.
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