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  • #1,901
  • Sep 2, 2010 12:37pm Sep 2, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting pip_daddy
I think it would be unrealistic to expect you could hit a weekly/daily trend precisely the minute it starts happening. If you only care about what happens in the next few hours that is a different story but that is not what this thread is about IMHO.
Agreed, but that wasn't Graeme's question. He asked: "Which timeframe does a new trend start?" He did not ask "When can a position trader realistically expect to observe a new trend and then be able to take advantage of it?" A position trader's idea of a tradeable trend will probably be a lot different than a scalper's. A trend, albeit a very short one, can begin on a tick chart. You probably couldn't trade it (or, then again, maybe you could. I should re-phrase... I probably couldn't trade it), but that does not mean it isn't there. To me, Graeme's question is a theoretical one in order to get us to think about it, rather than the practical, and if a trend is defined as a series of moves in one direction (which is how I define it), then it can be on any timeframe, beginning with the tick chart. It's all relative. Of course, I could be wrong about that as only Greame knows what he had in mind when he asked it.

At any rate, it was a thought provoking question and it did get me to think about it.

Kevin
  • #1,902
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:06pm Sep 2, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
Trick question... HA, you can't fool me! It all starts with the 1-tick chart. The ticks are compressed into the 1 minute chart. The 1 minute is compressed into the 5 minute chart. The 5 minute is compressed into the 15 minute chart. And so on...

Nice try, Graeme

P.S. It seems like I have read some of this before. Hmmmmm
I tend to respectfully differ on this. Trend is independent of any TimeFrame as it happens on ALL timeframes (at a different scale). Just reiterating what Graeme has already told us in his previous posts. Lower timeframes only allow you to get on an early ride and keep your drawdowns to a minimum. That's all there is to it. Pretty simple stuff overall but have to admit...I am struggling with the diversification aspect of this approach. I won't know unless I personally experience it myself via these assignments.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,903
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:27pm Sep 2, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hello Graeme,

Thank you for the insight, to answer your question I would think that a trend starts at the same time on all the timeframes , it might however be visible quicker on the lower timeframe charts, but other times it might be visible better on the higher timeframes.

After all for example 100 buys and 100 sells are the same quantity on all the timeframes, just the "drawing" takes different shapes if time is taken into consideration i.e. it is all relative.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
"....at the same time on all timeframes..." - How is this even possible? Would you see 10 previous up candle on weekly TF and 10 previous up candles on a 5M TF at the same time?

Precise Start and end times of an up or down trend on each TF can happen at ANY time but never at the same time. That is why we are dropping soldiers all over the place to see which ones survive to give us early validation on our highsight.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,904
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:40pm Sep 2, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Agreed, but that wasn't Graeme's question. He asked: "Which timeframe does a new trend start?" He did not ask "When can a position trader realistically expect to observe a new trend and then be able to take advantage of it?" A position trader's idea of a tradeable trend will probably be a lot different than a scalper's. A trend, albeit a very short one, can begin on a tick chart. You probably couldn't trade it (or, then again, maybe you could. I should re-phrase... I probably couldn't trade it), but that does not mean it isn't there. To me,...
Just to reiterate what I said in other posts. Trends start and end in all TFs but they never start at the same precise time and in the same precise direction in all timeframes. So if anyone here thinks that an hourly trend WILL start with a tick chart or a 5M chart will soon have a rude awakening. All we can do is anticipate and get in the same direction!
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,905
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:41pm Sep 2, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting VEEFX
"....at the same time on all timeframes..." - How is this even possible? Would you see 10 previous up candle on weekly TF and 10 previous up candles on a 5M TF at the same time?

Precise Start and end times of an up or down trend on each TF can happen at ANY time but never at the same time. That is why we are dropping soldiers all over the place to see which ones survive to give us early validation on our highsight.
What you say makes some sense ... if you think of a trend in a very material sense. I see a trend as more of a common 'feeling' between the market participants, so it's not always visible to the eye. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to start a controversy, just stated what I thought in my mind.
  • #1,906
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:49pm Sep 2, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting cameron1st
What you say makes some sense ... if you think of a trend in a very material sense. I see a trend as more of a common 'feeling' between the market participants, so it's not always visible to the eye. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to start a controversy, just stated what I thought in my mind.
As the master said... there is no right or wrong or controversial answer. It's all good discussion and thoughts that we all ought to explore at some point (publicly or within oneself). Sorry if I came out a bit strong in my opinion in these past few posts.

Respectfully,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,907
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:58pm Sep 2, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting VEEFX
Just to reiterate what I said in other posts. Trends start and end in all TFs but they never start at the same precise time and in the same precise direction in all timeframes. So if anyone here thinks that an hourly trend WILL start with a tick chart or a 5M chart will soon have a rude awakening. All we can do is anticipate and get in the same direction!
surely the one hour candle growing longer is a trend of 60 one minute candles or 12 five minute candle.

for intance a pin bar on one hour time frame is a series of shorter time frame candles closing and showing short term trend up and reversal before one hour candle closed.

I think all time frames show same thing depends which one you prefer.

With daily candles for instance you just see candle go up an down.
with shorter time frames you may see patterns being formed to give you clues to what the daily candles are going to do.

If you look for patterns in daily candle formations it would probably tell you which way a yearly candle is gonna grow.

conclusion:- short time frames candles show you whats going on inside long time frame candle.

Dont think there is right or wrong way to interpret just personal preference based on how long you likely hold your positions.

long term investors probably wont go lower than daily.

daytraders probably use 60 minute to 1 minute

Think we just tailor the time frames to our own circumstances.

With my funds am concentrating on one second time frame lol ( just joking)
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,908
  • Sep 2, 2010 2:04pm Sep 2, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting pipEASY
I might have confused some readers with my last post so please allow me to ask all a question.

Which timeframe does a new trend start..?

Would you say on 5min?

or Would you say on higher timeframe like 4hr?

Look forward to your replies.

Once again no right or wrong but perhaps an useful insight on how everything in the market really is all relative and there is no answer because there is no question..

Sincerely,

Graeme
Trend is in the eyes of the beholder. This can't be answered because there is no right answer. Personally I believe timeframes are irrelevant to market optimism and pessimism. Trends start when a majority of big $ has a same viewpoint - and then we piggyback off of them once we recognize they are positioned and ready to go.
  • #1,909
  • Edited 3:41pm Sep 2, 2010 3:23pm | Edited 3:41pm
In earlier posts Graeme stated that either 'price is in a trend or a range; - on any TF. He also stated that only a volatile breakout of the range is a continuation of a previous trend or a reversal. Therefore since we know that price is in a range most of the time then when a volatile break occurs on a lower TF rrange, often where we would take a position, only time will tell if it breaks a higher TF range. If you think about it that is why we try to take positions on a lower TF, i,e, in the hope that it will be a trend starting position that will last months or years. ............from little acorns etc.

Edit: apologies for above as it may mislead; Whilst a trend reversl or continuation will be a breakout from aa 'stalled' area that area might be a range, an FB, a pennant, a flag inside bar or engulfing bar that you might choose to use as a signal; also Graeme stated he uses 4Hr for breakout then zooms down for entry - wrt range plays at least. See pages 56 > of thread.
  • #1,910
  • Sep 2, 2010 3:33pm Sep 2, 2010 3:33pm
As I stated in my introductory post, I have been trading the Forex for the past 7 years and have logged in over 17,000 hours of personal trading. This only means that I know enough to be dangerous. However, having given these credentials, I spent the first 5 years trying to figure out what was the best time frame to trade on. I also learned to invent all sorts of indicators, even taking 3 and 4 standard indicators and intertwining them into 1. I learned how to bend lines, create a plethora of algorithms through a process of mathematical formulas, but for the life of me I could not understand why I couldn't become a gazillionaire with all of this knowledge. And then one day I came to understand my folly - the price doesn't know nor does it care anything about my mathematical ability or my gift of creativity. It will move where it wants to move, when it wants to move and will not necessarily follow anything I have so diligently created. It will oscillate and vacillate, but it is not commanded to insinuate or indicate anything. I previously stated and feel compelled to state it once more. "You have millions of traders trading different account balances, trading different time frames (1 minute to 1 month), using a multiplicity of indicators (all giving them different information predicated on their particular time frame), using different strategies and set-ups, trading the spot, futures, and options, using mechanical and automated systems, involved in retail and institutional, trading with all degrees of human emotion. Why would any of us think that we can compete with all of these variables?" Graeme continues to teach and instruct what it took me 5 years to comprehend and as of yet, he has done so without sending out even one invoice for payment. The answer(s) are all here within. And if I may be so bold to say, even if we never make a dime in this market, we have achieved something even possibly greater - we have taken the most rewarding and challenging business in the world and we have read its mind and observed its soul. Having said that - let's make a dime anyway.
  • #1,911
  • Edited 3:47pm Sep 2, 2010 3:36pm | Edited 3:47pm
Each timeframe has it's own trend. The idea is to enter a trend on a low TF at the moment it is in sync with the higher TF which is in sync with the higher TF. He used the movie 'Inception' as an example which really seems to fit well.

Perfect example was about 16 hours ago on G/U. Weekly and daily were down. 4H was a FB. I entered 3 positions on 5min just after it peaked and during the momentum down. Still looking good for now and the same circumstances could materalize again near the end of the Asian session for another move down. Total risk was 8 pips. 8pips for what could end up being thousands. Or I could get stopped out but since I am at BE that is of no consequence. I'll just do it all over again.
  • #1,912
  • Sep 2, 2010 3:57pm Sep 2, 2010 3:57pm
To be fair to us. Looking at the range on the last 3 weekly candles on the most popular pair eur/usd and the one I'am on at moment eur/jpy.
they have not had big bodies compared to some of the previous candles
and they have been big pin bars a bit indecisive bars I'd say.

We may see better progress after the holiday period.

Don't lose hope friends

We can do it.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,913
  • Sep 2, 2010 4:24pm Sep 2, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
I tend to respectfully differ on this.
Quote
Arguing on the internet is like running in the Special Olympics. Even if you win you're still retarded.
  • #1,914
  • Edited 4:49pm Sep 2, 2010 4:38pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting Warburg
As I stated in my introductory post, I have been trading the Forex for the past 7 years and have logged in over 17,000 hours of personal trading. This only means that I know enough to be dangerous. However, having given these credentials, I spent the first 5 years trying to figure out what was the best time frame to trade on. I also learned to invent all sorts of indicators, even taking 3 and 4 standard indicators and intertwining them into 1. I learned how to bend lines, create a plethora of algorithms through a process of mathematical formulas,...
Thank you for taking the time to express your views of Graeme's efforts here. I can see (5 posts to date in two years) that you are a person of few words (at least online) but that you have felt strongly enough about this thread to lend support by posting your positive comments. It is encouraging for myself and others to see this kind of support from those that we might perceive as successful in endeavors that we ourselves are pursuing.

Dan
  • #1,915
  • Sep 2, 2010 4:47pm Sep 2, 2010 4:47pm
Hi Guys...

Very interesting conversation for the last few pages. I think this just goes to prove how frustrating it can be to trade forex. There are so many different approaches and so many different variables to how one trades the markets. I agree with Graeme when he says there's no right or wrong way to trade. I think each of us has to find what works for you and build on that. This methodology may or may not work out for me but I know one thing from this experience; since I've been reading this thread the way I view the market has changed drastically. I just hope I have the mental fortitude to keep going while the market gives me small loses and BE trades until I hit that pair that decides to trend for the next 6-12 months.
  • #1,916
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:02pm Sep 2, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Guys...

Very interesting conversation for the last few pages. I think this just goes to prove how frustrating it can be to trade forex. There are so many different approaches and so many different variables to how one trades the markets. I agree with Graeme when he says there's no right or wrong way to trade. I think each of us has to find what works for you and build on that. This methodology may or may not work out for me but I know one thing from this experience; since I've been reading this thread the way I view the market has changed...
Agree 100% .
Taking losses is hard but taking smaller losses on the 5 min is not that bad when you know that sooner or later some on the entries will be legs and then it will all make good sense.
  • #1,917
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:04pm Sep 2, 2010 5:04pm
Dan,

I appreciate your kind words. My wife would differ with you regarding being a man of few words. However, with that being said, this is not my thread and I will assure you that I cannot improve on what's being said or taught. Thank you again.
  • #1,918
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:13pm Sep 2, 2010 5:13pm
@ Warburg. . .carefull - your running up your 'postcount' LOL!

Hi all

I would like to offer my opinion on trend start. IMHO a trend may start on any two ticks (any and all timeframes).

Dan
  • #1,919
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:16pm Sep 2, 2010 5:16pm
Good morning all

Thank you for the continued interest and the compliments. They are greatly apperciated.

Today I would like to step in and if I may re-adjust/ammend mindset that is required.

Before I begin, everyone is doing fine and it is all part of the learning curve.

First post of today, I would like to tell a quick story and this will answer the small quiz from last night.

When does trend start?

Thank you for your contributions and they are all correct to some degree. If market is universal and neutral then all your answers are correct whilst they are wrong as well.

Having said that, if the market is universal and neutral then trends start anytime, anywhere.

It can start from the tick of the minute chart or the double wick bounce of the 4hr chart. No one can ever state with proof that trends start on any particular timeframe. Nothing is pre-defined and destined.

All you could ever do is participate at the cost of a low-risk entry and let it grow. <-- And that is all about trading.

Many of the traders are trying to implement/add mathematical variables to an equation with no numbers.

Trust me when I say, you cant. Look around for many of the established traders on this forum. They had an 'aha' moment which was simply throwing out everything they were doing and finally just following the market.

Market is coming down, they enter sell, and then they risk control the position. When they enter, they want to see price continuing, not stalling or indecisive. So the pros start honing their skills to when they can enter so the price will at least go towards their direction by at least few candles.

If you are still trying to work out things in % and numbers, you will soon realize there is no such parameters to an infinite variables. And trading effectively is so much easier.

Continuing on..
  • #1,920
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:20pm Sep 2, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning all

Thank you for the continued interest and the compliments. They are greatly apperciated.

Today I would like to step in and if I may re-adjust/ammend mindset that is required.

Before I begin, everyone is doing fine and it is all part of the learning curve.

First post of today, I would like to tell a quick story and this will answer the small quiz from last night.

When does trend start?

Thank you for your contributions and they are all correct to some degree. If market is universal and neutral then all your answers are...
UP UP and Away!

Thanks Graeme your thread has been truly inspirational.

Dan
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