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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #250,541
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:52am Sep 2, 2010 6:52am
Quoting ams
This week and next is all about Euro and primarily Aussie / commodity currencies.

It sure is, the whole week has been dominated by equities and mainly oil. Lots of other commodities are rising in conjunction with the wheat shortage.

Yesterday was a good indication of where oil and heating oil are heading with the price increasing in spite of increased storage numbers.
  • #250,542
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:53am Sep 2, 2010 6:53am
Quoting cloggie
Just outside of London, enjoying the countryside.
Lovely. Hertfordshire myself.
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #250,543
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:54am Sep 2, 2010 6:54am
Quoting pips stunner
Keep selling.. we stil got some pips going there.
Going down as i said but i aint trading it... reasons??
LATE ENTRY!!
  • #250,544
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:58am Sep 2, 2010 6:58am
Hi Cloggie,
Hope you are doing great.

I have a request to make. If you have the time, could you please explain what the following paragraph means? (I picked it off another forum here on FF)

"Trading the "hot hand": Trading the strongest/weakest market is actually really simple. For example, yesterday the Eur/Usd was up more proportionately than the Usd/Chf was down. This was because the Usd/Chf wasn't even a down day. Definitely off its highs but not down relative to last week's close. The Eur/Usd was up, up and away! So that is the market you buy."

Thanks in advance
  • #250,545
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:00am Sep 2, 2010 7:00am
Quoting PipChick
Tomorrow is NFP so we could just hang out in a little range all day or get spikes up or down with no follow thru. Need to use lots of confirmations before trading a set up today I think.

GJ may be a little easier to trade today.

aiaiai...

thanks pip chick
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #250,546
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:01am Sep 2, 2010 7:01am
Quoting gammase1
I'm keeping well, BB.

I'm looking forward to Tuesday, mate, when normal service should be resumed after Labor Day. Out for most of tomorrow, so I'll miss any moves provided by the NFP numbers.

Good to see you posting here again.
sell today collect tom bro...
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #250,547
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:02am Sep 2, 2010 7:02am
Quoting need-help
Hi Cloggie,
Hope you are doing great.

I have a request to make. If you have the time, could you please explain what the following paragraph means? (I picked it off another forum here on FF)

"Trading the "hot hand":...
Not knowing the entire context I can only deduce that he is talking about finding the correlated pairs that are mostly out of sync. There are several basket or cluster indicators available that identify the currency that are or getting out of correlation.

Correlation trading is actually one of the projects on my list for this year, just have not gotten around to it yet. If you google "cluster trading" and "basket trading" there is plenty of info out there to read up on. Or more in general form google "stat arb trading" and "Black-Scholes", which is the principle that most quants are based on. In general it is the partial differential between 2 correlated instruments.

So in the case of GU, you look at EU and EG and see which one of the 3 is out of sync and trade it accordingly.

Both UC and uCAD are good indicators to see where the dollar is going and whether a rise in EU is a strength of the euro or a weakness of the dollar, so is the Dixy and GB index.
  • #250,548
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:06am Sep 2, 2010 7:06am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
I've been trading aussie and euro alongside cable this week.

Totally stopped trading Yen pairs..although they are ranging and serious money can be made until UJ decides it's next move but doesn't make any sense yet to me.

Imagine some guy said oil will be $10 PB. If and when that happens we won't be here on this forum. Might be in a queue for state help


ta
ams


Quoting cloggie
It sure is, the whole week has been dominated by equities and mainly oil. Lots of other commodities are rising in conjunction with the wheat shortage.

Yesterday was a good indication of where oil and heating oil are heading with the price increasing in spite of increased storage numbers.
  • #250,549
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:07am Sep 2, 2010 7:07am
good to see u back Q..

this is what im seeing right now..32 fibo having some confluence in this area..trend on weekly has broken to up..denoted by the downtrend trendline break, testing previous swing high..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #250,550
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:07am Sep 2, 2010 7:07am
Quoting ams
I've been trading aussie and euro alongside cable this week.

Totally stopped trading Yen pairs..although they are ranging and serious money can be made until UJ decides it's next move but doesn't make any sense yet to me.


ta
ams

I have been ignoring yen crosses too for the last 2 weeks or so until BOJ shows its hand. I really can't see oil at $10.00 again in the next few years at least.
  • #250,551
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:12am Sep 2, 2010 7:12am
Quoting dil
All those 3 candles bounced from 1.5372 3 times .. and the new one are higher that those previous no point to sell man....
the last 4 H4 candles has lower highs & lower lows. One can say there's no point to buy either.
Thank You
  • #250,552
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:15am Sep 2, 2010 7:15am
Quoting wormboy
the last 4 H4 candles has lower highs & lower lows. One can say there's no point to buy either.
slightly different illustration good to see u doing so well bro!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart3.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #250,553
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:15am Sep 2, 2010 7:15am
Quoting wormboy
the last 4 H4 candles has lower highs & lower lows. One can say there's no point to buy either.
Wormy

Where are you my friend ? How your trades?
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #250,554
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:17am Sep 2, 2010 7:17am
Quoting nAVIN2007
good to see u back Q..

this is what im seeing right now..32 fibo having some confluence in this area..trend on weekly has broken to up..denoted by the downtrend trendline break, testing previous swing high..
Nav me main man

I come back from from holiday and I get some punk having a go at me

whats doing mate?
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #250,555
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:19am Sep 2, 2010 7:19am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
it's all politics mate...
Japan can't afford to produce expensive cars', electronics and sell cheap "but" from what I heard, US is directly in "cold war" with China over currency issues, cheap yen is costing US labour market it's jobs, china kept buying tresuries to keep US (it's biggest customer) calm. They can't do it anymore aggresively, they are also giving a helping hand to JP by buying their debt, afterall even JP companies (exporters/importers) get their products from china at cheap cost and strong yen is good for them as well. On every yen rise they are the one keep selling the damn yen. So all in all, it's currency war everywhere. Hence JP and US changed the FX rules, all the big player are now in FX market directly. Not investing in equities anymore. No risk of company going bust and trades overnight



Quoting cloggie
I have been ignoring yen crosses too for the last 2 weeks or so until BOJ shows its hand. I really can't see oil at $10.00 again in the next few years at least.
  • #250,556
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:19am Sep 2, 2010 7:19am
Quoting Bull_Bear
Nav me main man

I come back from from holiday and I get some punk having a go a me

whats doing mate?


yeah i notice bro if he only knew huh! im good pal..just chilling hoping the big guns are on my side..interesting weeks ahead for sure.

did u have a great holiday..bet u missed the yoga huh

(the news abt jacko was a shocker!! i take u heard?)
  • #250,557
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:22am Sep 2, 2010 7:22am
While we wait for the patterns to develop here. You guys/girls see the latest BIS survey?

Spot FX now 1.5trn a day (up 48%) FX overall now 4Trn a day (up 20%)

London's market share up 25%, now 36.7% of daily volume with NY 17.9% and TY 6.2%

EURUSD share 28% of daily volume
USDJPY share 14% of daily volume
GBPUSD share 9% of daily volume

Shows again without a doubt that the London market is the one to trade, and retailers are starting to make a difference in total volume now.

BIS Survey
  • #250,558
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:31am Sep 2, 2010 7:31am
Quoting nAVIN2007

yeah i notice bro if he only knew huh! im good pal..just chilling hoping the big guns are on my side..interesting weeks ahead for sure.

did u have a great holiday..bet u missed the yoga huh

(the news abt jacko was a shocker!! i take u heard?)
Shit happens bro... life goes on buddy
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #250,559
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:32am Sep 2, 2010 7:32am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Yup, expect more volatility and some stupid, crazy rules coming UK ways as well



Quoting cloggie
While we wait for the patterns to develop here. You guys/girls see the latest BIS survey?

Spot FX now 1.5trn a day (up 48%) FX overall now 4Trn a day (up 20%)

London's market share up 25%, now 36.7% of daily volume with NY 17.9% and TY 6.2%

EURUSD share 28% of daily volume
USDJPY share 14% of daily volume
GBPUSD share 9% of daily volume

Shows again without a doubt that the London market is the one to trade, and retailers are starting to make a difference in total volume now.

BIS Survey...
  • #250,560
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:35am Sep 2, 2010 7:35am
Just to check I am understanding this properly. Am I right in thinking that we should see a rise at some point during NY to take us back up to the Asian session?
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