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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #250,281
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:33am Sep 1, 2010 8:33am
Quoting cloggie
Next month T-bill report will be a good indicator of that. China is ofloading US debt at the fastest rate in couple of years, if they continue to do that and continue to diversify into the Euro, a longer bear run on the dollar could well be in the cards, the big prob though is equities, if they take a turn for the worst also that could halt the decline in the dollar.
thanks for the input buddy..
  • #250,282
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:35am Sep 1, 2010 8:35am
Quoting cloggie
No the expectation is -100, mostly due to Government losses, the ADP today did not include the government employment figures.
So ADP is private sector? am i right?

so private sector +government = true NFP?

so -10 k is 30k lower + (unchange government data) = -70k? its 130k sorry

Please correct me
Peace And Quite Is Utterly Malapropos Of My Departure . . .
  • #250,283
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:35am Sep 1, 2010 8:35am
Quoting nAVIN2007
thanks for the input buddy..

Longer term I share your view, not necessarily due to a weakening dollar, but a strengthening euro and Sterling. However as it still is summer trading I, unlike you, don't position trade now.
  • #250,284
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:36am Sep 1, 2010 8:36am
Quoting Vegapunk
So ADP is private sector? am i right?

so private sector +government = true NFP?

so -10 k is 30k lower + (unchange government data) = -70k?

Please correct me

The 101 is a lot simpler, 1,000 was lost in the private sector according to ADP today and the consensus is a loss of 100k in government so -101 in total.
  • #250,285
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:38am Sep 1, 2010 8:38am
GU update:

See chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU update 2.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #250,286
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:41am Sep 1, 2010 8:41am
Quoting cloggie
The 101 is a lot simpler, 1,000 was lost in the private sector according to ADP today and the consensus is a loss of 100k in government so -101 in total.

Thank you Sir

so in "assumption" the current situation is USD bearish
Peace And Quite Is Utterly Malapropos Of My Departure . . .
  • #250,287
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:42am Sep 1, 2010 8:42am
Quoting PipChick
GU update:

See chart
what does it take for the channel to break?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #250,288
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:43am Sep 1, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Vegapunk
Thank you Sir

so in "assumption" the current situation is USD bearish

Not if the NFP comes out spot on, and let's be honest how can they be so sure on a population of 300 mill?
  • #250,289
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:44am Sep 1, 2010 8:44am
Quoting GlobalMacro
what does it take for the channel to break?

ISM in 15 should do the trick and that's why you and I are flat now.
  • #250,290
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:45am Sep 1, 2010 8:45am
Quoting cloggie
Longer term I share your view, not necessarily due to a weakening dollar, but a strengthening euro and Sterling. However as it still is summer trading I, unlike you, don't position trade now.
yup i know me..gonna position where ever i can

i hate scalping..lose money to quick
  • #250,291
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:46am Sep 1, 2010 8:46am
Quoting cloggie
ISM in 15 should do the trick and that's why you and I are flat now.
Well I hope everyone is flat with ISM due out.lol
  • #250,292
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:47am Sep 1, 2010 8:47am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yup i know me..gonna position where ever i can

i hate scalping..lose money to quick

It is going to be an interesting autumn ahead of us.
  • #250,293
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:47am Sep 1, 2010 8:47am
Quoting cloggie
The 101 is a lot simpler, 1,000 was lost in the private sector according to ADP today and the consensus is a loss of 100k in government so -101 in total.

What are the soldiers coming back from afghanistan and iraq doing? There are tens of thousands of them, all looking for work.
  • #250,294
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:47am Sep 1, 2010 8:47am
Quoting PipChick
Well I hope everyone is flat with ISM due out.lol

You'd be surprised, plenty of retail "news" traders..... And plenty of big boys hunting their stops.
  • #250,295
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:49am Sep 1, 2010 8:49am
Quoting GlobalMacro
what does it take for the channel to break?
Good call today man.. you are the one guy who i follow blindly.. Thanks for the posting your trades..
  • #250,296
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:50am Sep 1, 2010 8:50am
hi,
Hope everyone is doing great.

Just one question; I understand the ADP news data was bad so just why are stocks up?

About as confused as a lost sheep

Thanks in advance
  • #250,297
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:54am Sep 1, 2010 8:54am
Quoting cloggie
It is going to be an interesting autumn ahead of us.

yup..god i hope pound doesnt fall like a stone
  • #250,298
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:56am Sep 1, 2010 8:56am
Quoting LostMyShirt
Good call today man.. you are the one guy who i follow blindly.. Thanks for the posting your trades..
cheers man....but always consider your level of risk tolerance and risk management...best don't follow blindly always do your own analysis as well...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #250,299
  • Sep 1, 2010 8:58am Sep 1, 2010 8:58am
Quoting trending
What are the soldiers coming back from afghanistan and iraq doing? There are tens of thousands of them, all looking for work.
Us national Debt is threatening GDP

I wonder if they could offer tens of thousand more jobs
Peace And Quite Is Utterly Malapropos Of My Departure . . .
  • #250,300
  • Sep 1, 2010 9:08am Sep 1, 2010 9:08am
Quoting need-help
hi,
Hope everyone is doing great.

Just one question; I understand the ADP news data was bad so just why are stocks up?

About as confused as a lost sheep

Thanks in advance

Yesterday's CB and today's ISM, the only way stocks can go is up. The only thing ADP signifies is slow domestic growth, the ISM shows good exports, so manufacturing is doing well (today), let's see if it lasts.

Oil is up, heating oil is up, ISM up, so stocks are reacting naturally. Got the GM report and oil inventories in 20 mins.
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