Building an equity millipede | Page 90 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Thegman's Journal (Equity Millipede Concept) 102 replies

Trading an Equity Millipede 23 replies

Equity millipede & Flying Buddha trading journal 9 replies

Build an Equity Millipede with the filtered Flying Buddha 171 replies

Application Development - Journal of Building an equity millipede 14 replies

Attachments: Building an equity millipede
Exit Attachments

Building an equity millipede

  • #1,781
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:10am Aug 31, 2010 10:10am
Quoting sixx58
Sorry guys, this might be a dumb question...

... but when we're talking about those 50% Fib levels, do we calculate that 50% level from the high and low of the BODY of the previous candle or do we include eventuell wicks as well in that calculation?
I'm pretty sure it's the entire candle, including wicks. Somebody jump in and correct me if I'm wrong.
  • #1,782
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:12am Aug 31, 2010 10:12am
That's what I thought. Just wasn't sure...
  • #1,783
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:31am Aug 31, 2010 10:31am
Hi leggo, I chose U/J as well (if you need a shoulder to cry on )...

Quoting leggo
Morning All,
Welcome to Marion!! I had 5 attempts yesterday to go long on UJ. 3 attempts on initial breakout Sydney am. Then 2 attempts around the 50% retrace of the weekly. My net loss is 53 pips. This is lower than the recommended average but higher than I would like. My last attempt skewed the average somewhat as I had to leave a hard stop loss and get some sleep. The currency is slowing down and I will look now for a retrace to the end of last weeks wick. Hope we get to hear more from Marion about her trading.
Kind Regards,
Ben
  • #1,784
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:32am Aug 31, 2010 10:32am
Quoting Chris_B
Today I've made 5 attempts with eurjpy:

1 loss (15 pips)
3 Breakeven
1 still surviving for the moment...

If this position goes stopped I will start to doubt my weekly hindsight...
Agree been a rough day getting stopped out but .
most longs would get stopped out by that big sell off.
just got wait for it too break one way or the other.
am focused on this pair for this excercise .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,785
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:53am Aug 31, 2010 10:53am
Quoting paul1
Agree been a rough day getting stopped out but .
most longs would get stopped out by that big sell off.
just got wait for it too break one way or the other.
am focused on this pair for this excercise .
I don't see anything all that interesting today. I'm on the sidelines for now. Taking the opportunity to re-read this thread.
  • #1,786
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:14am Aug 31, 2010 11:14am
Quote
Most people just want the answer. But even if you get the answer it won't help. That is where the belief that there is some kind of secret originates. You have to discover the experience yourself in order to see the truth of what is happening.

Hello mjaymay,

I share the same sentiments as what you have said above.

In my perspective, Greamy's intention was to make us think, while him trying to avoid giving direct answers which will make us follow, but not reason or rationalise.

I feel that he wants to drive us towards becoming independent traders, being able to make our own informed decisions while harnessing greater control over our psychological obstacles, which will give us a better edge in trading as we mature as traders.
  • #1,787
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:23am Aug 31, 2010 11:23am
Quoting mjaymay
...I am starting to see the market as a foreign language of sorts. We need to learn to understand this language in real time. Just like learning French or Italian. (For us English speakers) Many ask why more people don't learn a foreign language, even though many would like to. The simple answer is IT IS HARD. It's not easy and takes time. Our brains just don't have the pliability they did when we were young. And market action is just the same, it is a foreign language. And we must learn to understand it if we hope to be consistently profitable...
Hi Michael,

this is a very good comparison. Thanks for your nice post.
  • #1,788
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:24am Aug 31, 2010 11:24am
Here are a list of the FB signals that we started this week with.

Long FB signals:
EURUSD
EURJPY
EURCHF
GBPJPY
GBPCHF
USDJPY
NZDCHF
CADJPY
NZDJPY

Short FB signals:
GBPCAD
USDCAD

If you look at this weeks currently generated candles, all of them are to some extent against the FB signals thus far. Anyone have any feedback as to why and if this is normal or if somehow fundamentals and larger player/government influence cause us to have false FBs this week and a second round of signals next week.

Just trying to look at the larger picture and gain insights...

RDWatkins
  • #1,789
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:29am Aug 31, 2010 11:29am
Quoting rdwatkins
Here are a list of the FB signals that we started this week with.

Long FB signals:
EURUSD
EURJPY
EURCHF
GBPJPY
GBPCHF
USDJPY
NZDCHF
CADJPY
NZDJPY

Short FB signals:
GBPCAD
USDCAD

If you look at this weeks currently generated candles, all of them are...
My take is there is a lot of uncertainty right now. The signals as to where the US economy is headed are still mixed and what if anything the BOJ will do to devalue their currency. I think those 2 things are the biggest concerns right now. Of course the financial health of Euro countries like Ireland/Spain still looms large in the background and only adds to the uncertainty.

That's my take on it all for what it's worth. It's all pretty much reflected in the charts which look kind of choppy/rangey to me right now.

Some of the CHF pairs are starting to look interesting.
  • #1,790
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:49am Aug 31, 2010 11:49am
Quoting rdwatkins
Here are a list of the FB signals that we started this week with.

Long FB signals:
EURUSD
EURJPY
EURCHF
GBPJPY
GBPCHF
USDJPY
NZDCHF
CADJPY
NZDJPY

Short FB signals:
GBPCAD
USDCAD

If you look at this weeks currently generated candles, all of them are...
with the exception of CAD pairs, I strongly feel this week is driven by "fundamentals and larger player/government influence". This is especially true for USD, JPY and CHF pairs. Price patterns/TA usually become unreliable when there is so much uncertainty in regards to the global economic recovery especially during the week of NFP.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,791
  • Aug 31, 2010 12:36pm Aug 31, 2010 12:36pm
[quote=pipEASY;3988267]
Im reading all the emails and private messages and have printed out all of them. There are currently 30+ participants.



Hi Graeme, just wanted to say again how much I appreciate this thread. I did the assignment - written in my book, with full intentions of emailing you the charts; however, this thread seems to be growing by leaps and bounds! Everyday there are more and more posts to read - which I am making it a priority to get through them all each day.

My "hindsight" was exceeded beyond my imagination this morning. Before I had my first cup of coffee, I noticed a retrace happening and shut them all out before it was too late.

Only after my second cup of coffee did my "hindsight" continue on....

So todays "rule" I have written in my trade book: "STICK TO THE WEEKLY PLAN - Especially if it is going my way!"
  • #1,792
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:08pm Aug 31, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting Chris_B
Today I've made 5 attempts with eurjpy:

1 loss (15 pips)
3 Breakeven
1 still surviving for the moment...

If this position goes stopped I will start to doubt my weekly hindsight...
There is plenty of hindsight on the chart you posted.
  • #1,793
  • Edited 3:00pm Aug 31, 2010 2:32pm | Edited 3:00pm
Good morning, all

Thank you for the continued interest.

I have been observing individual traders and noticed few things of importance.

Many of the traders are trying to force the price to happen as per their hindsight

Market doesnt know about your intentions nor has any interest in your hindsight. If your weekly hindsight is DOWN then there is no need to take every sell opportunity that you come across.

Today, is first day of september.

What does this mean?

Im gravely interested in movement that opens:

First day of month and charges forward to end of the month
First day of week and charges farward to end of the week
First hour of the day and charges forward to end of the day

Taking every FBs

I mentioned in my earlier posts that FBs only have 40% chance of probability. I will apply this generalisation/ratio to inside bars, pin bars, engulfs.

60% probability of loss + spread = losing games to all traders already

It is your responsibility to make sure the failed FBs does not dent your capital or your emotions.

Aggressive stacking

You will greatly maximize profit taking with the mentality to add just 1 or 2 more positions on top of the initial position. Yes, I do stack several tens of positions when it does work out for me however I also control the positions well enough so any large changes will only cause me to lose 1 or 2 positions that were recently added. Is that you?

Price Interpretation

Would you like to know if your price interpretation is upskilled?

You can test it yourself.

GO back to any 5min chart, any session, and pair. Use your current price interpretation and enter accordingly. Dont look at the pips you make but how many candles go your way.

If your price interpretation is correct and the price moves at least 3 candles to your intended direction without the price closing below your buy entry or above your sell entry then your price interpretation is upskilled enough.

3 candles on 5min chart would mean less than 10 pips but 3 candles on weekly chart would mean hundreds or thousands. Do you get the point? Remember the scale is different

If market is all relative then use the same price interpretation of 5min chart on the weekly chart to create your hindsight.

I can honestly say, 8 or 9 out of 10 price interpretation entries on 5min chart will always goto my direction by at least few candles.

At the end of 2 weeks:

Scenario A
Trader with large drawdown but weekly hindsight didnt work out

It was your responsibility to minimize your losses and it needs to be looked at. Hindsight not working out is all part of the plan/trading.

Scenario B
Trader with large drawdown but weekly hindsight was correct

Losses greater than your profit. Price interpretation may have been correct but you need to lower your risk taking/stacking/entries greatly

Scenario C
Trader with small profit and weekly hindsight was correct

It means you have been selective of your entries to avoide drawdowns and positioned yourself for greater profits only to have random price fluctuation to take your winning positions out early. This is good sign and sooner or later you will hit it big with this approach.

Scenario D
Trader with complete profit that grew for 2 weeks and according to hindisight

Same as scenario C trader but the only difference is you sat infront of your computer at a different time. Price moved towards your hindsight for the complete 2 week candles.

Which one are you?

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,794
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:32pm Aug 31, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting VEEFX
My last long trade was at 107.16 around 50% FIB on weekly at a loss....
Anticipation on 1H candle: Placed buy order on 106.62 which is 50% retrace on H1 candle as well as Pivot Support(WS1) on Weekly. Let's see how this 'anticipation' works out for me :-
Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,795
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:37pm Aug 31, 2010 2:37pm
Dinopips and fguru,

You are welcome and thanks for the acknowledgment. The main point that I feel is important to recognize is the difference between techniques and principles. We are drawn to techniques because they give us the impression that things can be the same all of the time. But things are not always the same. They are alive so we need to understand their nature in order to be able to follow them. If you understand the principles you can then create the technique that is appropriate for that moment.

We can see that when someone asked Graeme why he didn't take such and such a FB as an entry. Well, he was listening to what the market was telling him. A technique would be to just enter the FB on the break of the candle. But that doesn't take into consideration what the market is doing. Sometimes he waits one candle, sometimes several candles, or enters on a retrace rather than a break. If we are thinking in terms of techniques this might be confusing. But if we think in terms of principles we are then open to seeing what each individual situation is presenting us with. This is what I see Graeme trying to teach us. He has even said so.

The market is alive. This is why it sometimes will suddenly retrace and take us out. Sometimes it just takes off. It is like an animal, we don't know for sure what it is going to do. So we need to try it out. Make a small trade and test the waters and see how it reacts. It then could either come back and take us out or move on in the direction we thought. Then we just keep following what it tells us. If it goes for a while so we have several positions and then turns. It is telling us that maybe the move is done for now. But we don't know if it is completely done or just making a pause. So we don't want to get rid of everything we built up. Just take some of it off the table. If it reverses direction and goes that way for a while, why not ride that as well. The positions are not necessarily to make money on every single one. They are there to make money if the market takes them away with the momentum.

I think a big hurdle for us is to learn to be OK with not knowing. This is a philosophical concept that I have been exploring recently, and here is a perfect application. We as humans have a very hard time staying in a condition of "not-knowing" for very long. We desperately need to feel like we know. But in life there are things that are just unknowable. And the market lives by the same laws. The more comfortable we can be with not knowing the better we will be as a trader.

This is why I was so drawn to this thread, it lays out the concepts that have been starting to take shape in my mind. I have read books that describe this organic approach to the market, and it just makes sense to me. It was so reassuring to finds someone who understands this and has been putting it into practice successfully. And then can explain the process to help others develop their own understanding. I am excited.

I can understand this not from my trading, but because I am very conscious of operating from a principle oriented perspective when dealing with the voice as a singer. I am starting to see how to do it in the market, but I am not skilled at it yet. But that is how we learn. First you develop your understanding conceptually and learn to see it in your mind. Then you learn to put it into practice. I teach this every day to people learning to use their voice. So I'm not trying to teach how to trade, but maybe these insights might help someone see their way.

Something I would suggest, if I may, is to consider a skill you have already developed. Something you feel like you understand well and can perform the skill confidently. It could be a musical instrument, a sport, anything. If you can identify the underlying principles that determine the successful behavior of that skill you can then apply that understanding to your involvement in the market. Then trading doesn't have to be something quite so unfamiliar and new.

Hope that gives some food for thought. (My apologies if this is out of line. The thread is a little slow right now.) Thanks.

Michael
  • #1,796
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:38pm Aug 31, 2010 2:38pm
Hi Rdwatkins.

I am just focussing on the eur-jpy for the next 2 weeks, because of the assignment. My hindsight for the week is still down, I know that there are different traders who's hindsight is to the opposite direction. but this was my anylisis last sunday and to me it hasen't changed. But of course, I could be wrong.

My hindsight was down, because the trend on the weekly is down for me, however I know that last week candle closed as a Flying buddha to the upside. To me this meant that at the opening of the market (this week), we probably should see some retracement. I anticipated that market could first retrace to +- 109,30 area. Why? because this was 50%fib of the candle of 2 weeks ago and it was also at the lower wick of the weekly candle of 3 weeks ago.
Monday, price did retrace, as anticipated but to 109.50 (ok 20 pips away, but it's still ok to me) and then dropped 330 pips!Unfortunatly, as I came to my computer we already had a drop of 200 pips also, so I did not take any trades. If we look at the 4 h chart for this periode of time, there was no retrace for the total move yet. as I came to my computer at london open today, I saw that the candle on the 4 h chart was a flying buddha to the upside. To me, this could mean that we should probably see some retrace before the move continue to go south. The market retrace to approximatly 50% of yesterdays move and the dropped again.

My hindsight was short and Graeme said that we only have to focus on the direction of our hindight for the coming 2 weeks, so I didn't took the trades to the upside.

I just wanted to give you an example on how I was looking at things but of course I could be wrong!

Sincerly,
Mel



Quoting rdwatkins
Here are a list of the FB signals that we started this week with.

Long FB signals:
EURUSD
EURJPY
EURCHF
GBPJPY
GBPCHF
USDJPY
NZDCHF
CADJPY
NZDJPY

Short FB signals:
GBPCAD
USDCAD

If you look at this weeks currently generated candles, all of them are to some extent against the FB signals thus far. Anyone have any feedback as to why and if this is normal or if somehow fundamentals and larger player/government influence cause us to have false FBs this week and a second round of signals next week.

Just trying to look at the larger picture and...
  • #1,797
  • Aug 31, 2010 2:45pm Aug 31, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, all

Thank you for the continued interest.

I have been observing individual traders and noticed few things of importance.

Many of the traders are trying to force the price to happen as per their hindsight

Market doesnt know about your intentions nor has any interest in your hindsight. If your weekly hindsight is DOWN then there is no need to take every sell opportunity that you come across.

Today, is first day of september.

What does this mean?

[color=purple]Im gravely interested in movement...
Another jewel post from the Master It's absolutely amazing how much clarity you are bringing to my thought process. Thanks Graeme.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,798
  • Aug 31, 2010 3:13pm Aug 31, 2010 3:13pm
Hi Mel,
i like you hindsight, it is similar to mine, just a different pair, i'm in on GBP/USD, short.
i like you am sticking to the one pair,

my analysis is this.

Pair- gbp/usd
Week starting date – 30/08/2010
Submitted by- geoff

Realistic Expectations- weekly chart 100+ pips minimum

Hindsight- Down, continuation trend.

Analysis- Last weeks candle was smallish, after the movement of 2 weeks ago on the back of the Flying Buddah candle, price has stalled, Last weeks candle showed movement in the direction of the trend, only to retrace back inbetween both ema’s, price has already retraced back to around 50% of the week before last candle.

Anticipate – I am anticipating a continuation of down movement, on the daily chart, price has moved away from the ema’s and has already come back, so I anticipate that price could continue down right from the get go. I anticipate price could come back up and retest the open from 2 weeks ago, I will keep an eye on this level which is close to the wick high from last week.
Price may also turn up, and I will look at the area of the wick high from the week before last week for long opportunities.


i have had to date 4 positions in the market, withh 2 of thhem closing at BE, ad 1 for an average loss of 10pips. the very first position i put on is still in play, mind you i shhould have been inn a lot earlier buut i was away from my computer, 1 position will do for now.

I am really enjoying this exercise, even if i end up out of the market, this is a great exercise in learning to focus and hone skills, with a pre defined purpose. instead of jumping here and there.

Thanks again to graeme.

cheers
Geoff

Quoting @mel
Hi Rdwatkins.

I am just focussing on the eur-jpy for the next 2 weeks, because of the assignment. My hindsight for the week is still down, I know that there are different traders who's hindsight is to the opposite direction. but this was my anylisis last sunday and to me it hasen't changed. But of course, I could be wrong.

My hindsight was down, because the trend on the weekly is down for me, however I know that last week candle closed as a Flying buddha to the upside. To me this meant that at the opening of the market (this week), we probably...
  • #1,799
  • Aug 31, 2010 3:25pm Aug 31, 2010 3:25pm
Hi Geoffrod,

Thank you for the reply. I agree with you that this is a really good exercice and that we all could learn so much during this 2 weeks project.
I think that the hardest thing, is to be at the computer on the right time, wich is not always evident, but I don't give up, we'll see ....

Graeme has been a source of inspiration to me.. i always enjoy, reading everythink he has to say...

Good luck to you,
Mel

Quoting geoffrod
Hi Mel,
i like you hindsight, it is similar to mine, just a different pair, i'm in on GBP/USD, short.
i like you am sticking to the one pair,

my analysis is this.

Pair- gbp/usd
Week starting date – 30/08/2010
Submitted by- geoff

Realistic Expectations- weekly chart 100+ pips minimum

Hindsight- Down, continuation trend....
  • #1,800
  • Aug 31, 2010 3:26pm Aug 31, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting mjaymay
Dinopips and fguru,

You are welcome and thanks for the acknowledgment. The main point that I feel is important to recognize is the difference between techniques and principles. We are drawn to techniques because they give us the impression that things can be the same all of the time. But things are not always the same. They are alive so we need to understand their nature in order to be able to follow them. If you understand the principles you can then create the technique that is appropriate for that moment.

We can see that when someone asked...
Apologies, I had to step in.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

Kindest Regards,

Graeme
3 traders viewing now