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  • #249,861
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:09pm Aug 30, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting disegnosys
I did longs today. All I did was long the EU and GU but only scaling and scalping off low TLs and bounces for a few pips. Not really worth trading today with GBP bank holiday. Soon the summer will be over and the market should pick up again. Every should be back from vacation to hit it hard again.

Best Wishes.
interesting on eu as trend was down on 15 since asia spike up , hulls on 15 and 30 min still red

suggestion if i may and not trying to tell you how to trade... maybe looks at 15 min with something like hulls , or other trend indie (simple 8 and 16 sma works also ) and then scalp on lower time frame in direction of 15.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #249,862
  • Edited 1:32pm Aug 30, 2010 1:30pm | Edited 1:32pm
All of this is some more,

Great... "sKinny"!-!
I hate to get really political in all of this,
but i almost believe it's gotta get worse again,
Thanks to the Christopher "Do-Da-" Bill,
The US Banks thing, (you mention below),etc, etc, is -no joke.

They still want,
"Government to the Rescue" in Obama-Nation here; but we better
get off the you know what, to the bottle soon. Maybe
like you/i said... "It'll Get worse, come some election(s)/get better(???),
Then maybe half the US marketeers won't leave the US-?
Dunno if it's worth it, for us little guys. I still plan/aim on doing
Dukascopy w/an LLC paid for/move out to "St. Kitt's / Nevis"! !
w/1:100 vs. the coming 1:10 !!!
-Let's not think it ain't gonna happen, either.
That "Real Brilliant" bill was already signed in ink.

-'Do agree there's some bad outta either administration...

Best of Work, brother,
Thanks again for more good input,

Jeff


Quoting malcolmb14
gu already under last weeks close , if that holds for week (5537) we could see 5400 or lower ....range could be as much as 400 pip

GJ i covered in my vsa thread this morning ... broke what looks like flag / channel and could head to 129 to 127 , then see if that holds.

they talk of stocks being cheap and p/es coming down .... some are . I have been watching JPM but to be honest us banks scare the crap out of me. All this talk of to big to fail means they can fail ....and the unreported losses banks are tkaing...
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #249,863
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:43pm Aug 30, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting malcolmb14
they talk of stocks being cheap and p/es coming down .... some are . I have been watching JPM...
That's not true.

As you point out, banks now record their housing loans on an accrual form of accounting, rather than the old mark-to-market (fair value) method. This means the loan appears on the asset side of the balance sheet, marked at the loan origination value, less any repayments made.

Thus, a $350k loan extended in, say, 2005, on a property that was worth $400k, will be marked as an asset of $350k on the bank's balance sheet, less any principal repayments received. It will not be marked as a $400k asset, implying a $50k accounting gain, as your post incorrectly stated.

Under accrual accounting methods, once the borrower of that loan runs into trouble, say losing his job, and misses a couple of repayments, the bank will need to set aside increased provisions/reserves for bad and doubtful debts, as this hypothetical loan clearly falls into that category. The amount of money set aside for bad debts will depend, in large part, on the amount (if any) of negative equity that exists on the house that mortgage is secured against, and the probability, based on "sophisticated" proprietary credit models, that the borrower will be unable, or unwilling, to repay the debt.

If it is assumed, for the sake of the above example, that there is a 0% probability of the borrower being able to make any further repayments, and the borrower's house is now worth $300k, then the bank would repossess the property and be left with a $50k loss on the original loan, plus associated legal and maintenance costs.
  • #249,864
  • Edited 1:57pm Aug 30, 2010 1:55pm | Edited 1:57pm
Ok,

But 'still would Say... 'Rich Dad', would
not really count that bank property as an...
"Asset"...
Esp. When ten's of thousands of them are still hanging
around out there... worth way less than what they were.

-Not much of
a "asset", -rather so more easily put into the
"Liability" colum!
True though, the game still keeps going of 30 yr's of
Interest payments on $300,000 to millions plus...

Best of Trading,
'Wish i were in your 1:10 League,

Jeff!
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #249,865
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:56pm Aug 30, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting malcolmb14
interesting on eu as trend was down on 15 since asia spike up , hulls on 15 and 30 min still red

suggestion if i may and not trying to tell you how to trade... maybe looks at 15 min with something like hulls , or other trend indie (simple 8 and 16 sma works also ) and then scalp on lower time frame in direction of 15.
Your advice is gladly taken and I'll try it. I'm always open to learn more to become a better trader. I actually follow you and many other senior members learning bits here and there to help build my style.

I trade on Asian, DAK, London, NY markets open/close, looking for strong against weak pairs, momentmum, S/R levels, and trying to take 50% of a move. I keep a lot of powder on the side so I can even fix a loser into a winner or BE. So I will long and short trade all day long.

I mostly trade the EU and GU but I do trade GJ, EJ, AJ, AU, NJ, NU, UJ, and EG when opportunites are available. Maybe this is the wrong way to trade and too much work, but I got it to work for me. I would like to develop into a VSA, Swing and Position trader for longer move, so this is my future work.

I've been trading Forex since September 2007, lost big 2008, 2009 even, and 2010 finally rebuilding and positive. I guess I'm more of a short term trader because I don't like to pay swaps and like to be flat at the end of the day.

Thanks for your help.

Best Wishes.
  • #249,866
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:12pm Aug 30, 2010 2:12pm
me to ..I am a day trader. I hate having overnight positions in fx or futures as anything can happen at any time

recently for longer term charts I have been playing options on stocks ( mostly etfs) faz ( 3 x bear etf banks) , dxd / ddm , gld , qqq etc etc . The risk is limited to the value that I pay for the option trade. Ie if I buy 1 option contract for $2 a share my risk is limited to $200. That is the MAX I can lose if the option expires worthless , NO more... this makes me sleep better at night. with fx your stop may have to be 300 or 400 pip to give the whipsaw enough room before a 1000 pip move works out. I find with an option trade i look at weekly , daily then decide on trade , with risk being limited I do not even worry about it. I got some very nice CAT nov puts when CAT was 72.50 , dxd calls at 26

Then someone introduced me to spreads , when you buy a put you sell a call , the selling a call money comes into your account offsetting the cost of the options....pretty nice. I also learnt that by using options with limited risk you can still make 200 to 1000 % on a trade ... much like you can in fx.

Quoting disegnosys
Your advice is gladly taken and I'll try it. I'm always open to learn more to become a better trader. I actually follow you and many other senior members learning bits here and there to help build my style.

I trade on Asian, DAK, London, NY markets open/close, looking for strong against weak pairs, momentmum, S/R levels, and trying to take 50% of a move. I keep a lot of powder on the side so I can even fix a loser into a winner or BE. So I will long and short trade all day long.

I mostly trade the EU and GU but I do trade GJ, EJ, AJ, AU, NJ,...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #249,867
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:13pm Aug 30, 2010 2:13pm
thanks for that .. I always wondered about this and could not find any info on how they reported .

Quoting gammase1
That's not true.

As you point out, banks now record their housing loans on an accrual form of accounting, rather than the old mark-to-market (fair value) method. This means the loan appears on the asset side of the balance sheet, marked at the loan origination value, less any repayments made.

Thus, a $350k loan extended in, say, 2005, on a property that was worth $400k, will be marked as an asset of $350k on the bank's balance sheet, less any principal repayments received. It will not be marked as a $400k asset, implying a $50k accounting gain,...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #249,868
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:25pm Aug 30, 2010 2:25pm
Our lady is showing some sign of exhaustion, but my MACD on H4 just crossed 0 down and Laguerre just turned heading down. Stochastic and CCI are also not over-sold on H4. This is tricky. Those who like to pull long quickly, just watch it.
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #249,869
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:27pm Aug 30, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting autopips
I'm still looking for a 5th wave down from the 1.5997 top before we start the retracement, so have stayed short (SL BE). I realise the 4th wave up (1.5373 to 1.5597) might still have some legs in it, so I'm keeping careful watch.
Looks like she started out on this mission today, what a nice day without sitting in front of the screen. Closed earlier short for a small loss earlier when price was looking testy at the top, and then shorted again at 1.5568.

I'm looking at this extending beyond the bottom of wave 3, so lower than 1.5373, but I appreciate there is a lot of ground to clear inbetween. The bottom of the channel @ 1.5302 looks a long way off.

Tempted to take profits, but this is a big weakness of mine. I look at the chart and only see down from here, and can't imagine trying to get back in after closing out. Help!
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #249,870
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:41pm Aug 30, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting Precap2
Our lady is showing some sign of exhaustion, but my MACD on H4 just crossed 0 down and Laguerre just turned heading down. Stochastic and CCI are also not over-sold on H4. This is tricky. Those who like to pull long quickly, just watch it.
Until I see a positive cross on my Moving Averages, I will not be taking any shorts.

I am in my 3rd set of longs on the day since NY open.

Watching for my cross to come, TP area on chart and will wait to see what rollover has to offer for an entry.

Count on long positions today 148, not including trades opened Friday and closed for the gap.

On a predominantly short day, not a bad scalping profit.

Shorts 3 lots @ 66 pips profit.

There is always a play...just really depends on what you see and want to see out of your trades.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,871
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:42pm Aug 30, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting Precap2
Our lady is showing some sign of exhaustion, but my MACD on H4 just crossed 0 down and Laguerre just turned heading down. Stochastic and CCI are also not over-sold on H4. This is tricky. Those who like to pull long quickly, just watch it.
I saw the 2 marked volume bars as potential buyers... BUT we have seen zero reaction to that

bond interest rates dropped today , sending bond price up , hence strength usd .

Thinking this moves sideways to slightly up ( shallow bear flag) in asia , 1.5500 is key to longs IMHO.

1.5400 zone majopr support under us. That breaks 1,5280 next support level. 1.5400 holds then look for move back to 1.5500 to 5600

Daily today closed on lows ... should be bearish tomorrow but this market is insane and tomorrow could be 200 pip up day ...lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #249,872
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:43pm Aug 30, 2010 2:43pm
If current hour close above 1.5460/50 and next hour fails to break below it, then we might 1.5500 area before resuming the downward move.
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #249,873
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:48pm Aug 30, 2010 2:48pm
interesting Mag ...

ma # 2 closing gap down to your buy zone and trending down , so please explain why you taking longs ? always like to see what you are up to and what you are seeing.

Quoting Magix
Until I see a positive cross on my Moving Averages, I will not be taking any shorts.

I am in my 3rd set of longs on the day since NY open.

Watching for my cross to come, TP area on chart and will wait to see what rollover has to offer for an entry.

Count on long positions today 148, not including trades opened Friday and closed for the gap.

On a predominantly short day, not a bad scalping profit.

Shorts 3 lots @ 66 pips profit.

There is always a play...just really depends on what you see and want to see out of your trades.

Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #249,874
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:11pm Aug 30, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
me to ..I am a day trader. I hate having overnight positions in fx or futures as anything can happen at any time

recently for longer term charts I have been playing options on stocks ( mostly etfs)...
Do you trade FX and options all from one broker? What broker(s) do you use?

My FX brokers are GFT, InterbankFX and MB Trading.
  • #249,875
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:18pm Aug 30, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting disegnosys
Do you trade FX and options all from one broker? What broker(s) do you use?

My FX brokers are GFT, InterbankFX and MB Trading.
How is MB Trading as far as trading options go? I hear they are one of the best. MB is my broker for FX but I would rather trade options with a different broker if I ever do decide to make that leap. We are talking 6--12 months time minimum before I do if I ever decide to do so.
  • #249,876
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:20pm Aug 30, 2010 3:20pm
Will the pairs Support hold strong around 1.5442--1.5451?

I hope so.
  • #249,877
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:24pm Aug 30, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
interesting Mag ...

ma # 2 closing gap down to your buy zone and trending down , so please explain why you taking longs ? always like to see what you are up to and what you are seeing.
My Friday longs got closed on the gap up plus a couple at market open (held over the weekend because of a positive close on Friday, green circle on the chart). When we drifted back down, I added a few and rode them through Asian Session, waiting for a bit of a cap, got what I needed, closed them and went to sleep.

This mornings action was negative for NY open, so was playing it for what it would produce.

The MA counter cross...Select Moving Averages...When they cross, I add counters at 100 pips, and will add to these positions based on the strength of the day and the time...this morning, if you see the time stamp of my post with my 1m chart, you could see that we had hit exactly the 100 pip target about 15mins before London close. ATR...a neat little trick you taught me...Play out what the tradeable range is...what the charts tell me, is where the bottoms will come in...some what of a fractal and atr based on pure price action compared to price movement.

The Moving average Cross...yeah, short chart, I am holding longs and waiting for positive action??? Seems like a pretty newb kinda thang to do...unless you realize the value of this tool...These lines will cross, I will get my profits out, and won't be looking at a short until I see we have completed this cycle.

It happens almost everyday.(exceptional days are when we do not see the 100pips, no counters taken) I see my 1m chart hit the 100 pip mark and start to look for a reversal pattern...

2 charts below...
Longs and shorts off the 5m, and 1m chart with no noise.

The daily range has been completed, no real volume on a GBP holiday...these is just the plays that makes the most amount of sense to me Mal...

But you know me mango, crazy as a shithouse rat!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,878
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:30pm Aug 30, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting disegnosys
Do you trade FX and options all from one broker? What broker(s) do you use?

My FX brokers are GFT, InterbankFX and MB Trading.

use mf global for fx / futures
td waterhouse for options ( in canada tax free savings account you can trade options in and td , quest trade etc etc are pretty good .. all profit tax free )
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #249,879
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:32pm Aug 30, 2010 3:32pm
makes perfect sense ... today did not produce the standard bounce on the daily range... found that interesting. Sign of things to come for balance of week ?? maybe





Quoting Magix
My Friday longs got closed on the gap up plus a couple at market open (held over the weekend because of a positive close on Friday, green circle on the chart). When we drifted back down, I added a few and rode them through Asian Session, waiting for a bit of a cap, got what I needed, closed them and went to sleep.

This mornings action was negative for NY open, so was playing it for what it would produce.

The MA counter cross...Select Moving Averages...When they cross, I add counters at 100 pips, and will add to these positions based on the strength...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #249,880
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:39pm Aug 30, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting malcolmb14
makes perfect sense ... today did not produce the standard bounce on the daily range... found that interesting. Sign of things to come for balance of week ?? maybe
Rollover in 30 mins...if we open bottom, we are again still looking at a buy back, imo...

It's a goofy start to the week, but keeping London close price from Friday and the spike high last night, if we are going down, I gotta believe London is going to want a better price.

Balance the boox...

And, again, this consolidation range, really nothing that we all didnt see coming...As soon as we hit support on the daily, I posted the range on the chart, and guess what...We are still there.

Chart one, when we hit, chart 2 current.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=248400
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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