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  • #1,701
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:11am Aug 30, 2010 4:11am
Quoting TradeStar
Excellent execution Watkins. Getting ready to place orders both ways requires a skill, I guess.

TS
TS,

No skill, only executing when FB signals either direction then attempting to stack on momentum and move to BE. A tricky thing to be sure when range-bound. I use scripts for progressing SL settings after entries. -15, -10, -5, BE and +5 PIPs for those with plenty of room to breath. I enter a position w/o a SL first then apply the scripts as the position moves into profit.

Seems we end up in the same place. I am now all out with positions with the following stats...

Stats today:
29 - Total positions taken
20 - Losses
3 - BE
6 - In Profit
3.48 - PIPs average cost per position taken

Total Losses on 10,000 demo capital (split 50/50 long/short): $168.86 net or 1.68% in losses. Its a learning process right.

Out for a bit of a nap as Frankfurt nears lunch and whiplash/narrow range rules. But, this was a great practice run to kick the tires a bit more.

One weekly, still looking for a break of 1.2755 R / 1.2700 S to confirm weekly FB up or deny and resume larger downward trend.

RDWatkins
  • #1,702
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:25am Aug 30, 2010 5:25am
Quoting Chris_B
Hi guys!

I was lurking in this thread from the start..and now I've decided to join Graeme's 2 weeks project...

I'm working on demo with EURJPY and this is my plan:

Pair: EURJPY

Realistic expectation: Weekly chart. 100+ pips minimum

Hindsight: Up, reversal after Flying Buddha / Pin Bar

[size=2][font=Arial]Analysis: Last week was a typical reversal pattern. Good Pin Bar at a swing low. The week closed nearly the open price so this can...
E-mail it to graeme buddy he will keep it to assess
[email protected]
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,703
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:31am Aug 30, 2010 5:31am
been moving to b.e. too quickly.
trying 10 pip stop loss set break even at 20 pips profit now.
entering on break of lows or highs if it moves up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURJPY (5 Min) _ $EURUSD (5 Min) _ $GBPUSD (5 Min) 30_08_2010.jpg Size: 144 KB
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,704
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:32am Aug 30, 2010 5:32am
Quoting paul1
E-mail it to graeme buddy he will keep it to assess
[email protected]
Thanks Paul...I've already sent my email to PipEasy yesterday..
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #1,705
  • Aug 30, 2010 6:00am Aug 30, 2010 6:00am
Hi Everyone
UJ has stopped dead at 50% retrace of previous weekly candle. It is also touching a trendline on 4hr. If it bounces here it will probably form a pin bar flying buddah on 4hr. I entered long on recent flying buddah on 5 min.
  • #1,706
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:09am Aug 30, 2010 9:09am
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, all

Thank you all for the participation.

Most readers are charging forward and it is fantastic to see.

Keep it very simple please.

Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says UP. No trade.
Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says DOWN. 5min price action says UP. No trade until 5min also agrees.

Throughout the week, ask yourself is price action really to your anticipation.

Most of the time it will be not.

This is a psychological aspect. The market moves slower than most...
Good morning Graeme (and greetings to all weekend assignment followers),

Seeing some of the recent posts from fellow traders is making me wonder if we are 'allowed' to take trades in the opposite direction of our weekly hindsight. Reading this last post from Graeme (in post #1675), I think we all ought to stay focused on the higher TF direction and take positions only in the direction of your hindsight. I have not taken any short positions on E/J since my last post in http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1689. My weekly hindsight was Long on E/J. I will be focused on spacing out my entries over 2 weeks.... especially when this week is driven by news and fundamentals (NFP is on Friday!).

Graeme - appreciate a quick clarification if I am on the right track.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,707
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:30am Aug 30, 2010 9:30am
Quoting VEEFX
Good morning Graeme (and greetings to all weekend assignment followers),

Seeing some of the recent posts from fellow traders is making me wonder if we are 'allowed' to take trades in the opposite direction of our weekly hindsight. Reading this last post from Graeme (in post #1675), I think we all ought to stay focused on the higher TF direction and take positions only in the direction of your hindsight. I have not taken any short positions on E/J since my last post in http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1689....
I do believe Graeme said to manage your trading account and if things don't go in your planned direction how will you handle that. One of the suggestions is to plan for both long and short trades but have a bias toward one direction based on your anticipation.
  • #1,708
  • Edited 10:09am Aug 30, 2010 10:03am | Edited 10:09am
I think I remember reading in an earlier post where Graeme recommended not taking trades against "Hindsight" (counter-trend) until having a good grasp of this method.

I could be wrong, I'm sure Graeme will respond later.


edit...Post # 1617; page 108
Hej.
  • #1,709
  • Aug 30, 2010 11:08am Aug 30, 2010 11:08am
Could everyone who posted Graemes full email address here, edit his/her post to "pipeasy at yahoo com". Just to avoid spam.
  • #1,710
  • Aug 30, 2010 11:35am Aug 30, 2010 11:35am
Quoting Stitch961
I think I remember reading in an earlier post where Graeme recommended not taking trades against "Hindsight" (counter-trend) until having a good grasp of this method.

I could be wrong, I'm sure Graeme will respond later.


edit...Post # 1617; page 108

Until we hear from Graeme, I am sticking to my Long E/J Hindsight for this 2 weeks assignment. To me, it does not makes sense at all to have a Long hindsight on weekly trend and then jump on 5min and take short positions like most of us did on Sunday. Perhaps it was the excitement of getting off with our assignment on a good start

I think, we should atleast wait for a daily or 4H 'counter-hindsight' FB to appear first before going against our weekly hindsight on a 5M FB. This assignment is about having a weekly plan in place based on hindsight analysis, document what you anticipate from the market this week and then follow through your 'plan' for next two weeks and have Graeme (and of course yourself) assess how well you did in your weekend planning, learn from your mistakes in understanding PA, evaluate how many soldiers you went in loss and how many survived, money/position management etc.

My personal approach is to first prove to myself that I CAN trade with the current weekly hindsight/trend. Once you get better at this long term trend trading philosophy, that is when I would start counter trend trading. Throwing soldiers in both directions yesterday and today without having atleast a few 500+ pips positions is just shooting into thin air for me (i.e guessing /gambling). This is just my opinion though... until we wait for Graeme to clarify this for us.

p.s. I am currently Short on E/J in my live account since 3 weeks back from 110+ area but chose Long on my weekly Hindsight yesterday.... so this exercise is turning out to be quite an interesting endeavor for me :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,711
  • Edited 11:57am Aug 30, 2010 11:44am | Edited 11:57am
I will explain my understanding why Joe only takes shorts on FB. It is because short movement is not the same as long. It's more of a human nature thing than anything else. If you look at falling and rising trends they look as if they are influenced by gravity. Falling trends tend to fall faster and in larger runs between consolidation/retrace compared to rising trends. It's more about human perception than anything else.

This is explained in the book "Martin Pring on Price Patterns". Worth a read. My understanding is most of the price action patterns you read about on the internet come from this book.
  • #1,712
  • Aug 30, 2010 11:54am Aug 30, 2010 11:54am
Quoting pip_daddy
I will explain my understanding why Joe only takes shorts on FB. It is because short movement is not the same as long. It's more of a human nature thing than anything else. If you look at falling and rising trends they look as if they are influenced by gravity. Falling trends tend to fall faster and in larger runs between consolidation/retrace compared to rising trends. It's more about human perception than anything else.

This is explained in the book "Martin Pring on Price Patterns". Worth a read.
Fear is a stronger emotion than Greed. When you are being attacked by a wild bear, won't you run as fast as you possibly can? A bank robber does not barge in a bank when he wakes up one fine day.. same 'Fear' analogy applies to risk aversion days when money flows into treasuries, USD and JPY. It makes perfect sense what Joe does.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,713
  • Aug 30, 2010 11:59am Aug 30, 2010 11:59am
Quoting VEEFX
Fear is a stronger emotion than Greed. When you are being attacked by a wild bear, won't you run as fast as you possibly can? A bank robber does not barge in a bank when he wakes up one fine day.. same 'Fear' analogy applies to risk aversion days when money flows into treasuries, USD and JPY. It makes perfect sense what Joe does.
Yes, I believe that is the explanation Martin Pring uses although that is more relevant with stocks than forex.
  • #1,714
  • Aug 30, 2010 12:23pm Aug 30, 2010 12:23pm
My bias was due to a fb and reversing candle but the last few weeks was down. But as greame says go with the flow you never know when it could be a reversal. The market will tell me if i was right or wrong by this friday.
in my assessment i included what needed to happen to reinforce my bias unfortunately up to now it didnt break the lvl i specified to back up my bias.
hold hands with the market lol go with her dont try make her go your way.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,715
  • Aug 30, 2010 12:26pm Aug 30, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting marionb
I just had to register to come and witness it for myself.
It took some time to skim through few pages but im pleasantly surprised at the effort graeme has placed.
Not many individuals can or will do this feat of charity.

Graeme, has humourously named me 'joe' and the founder of flying buddha. Truth be told, the actual founder was none other than Graeme himself and he deserves the recognition. This is just one of the ways graeme works and it is a true gesture of his humbleness.

Everything he said about me is true and I have been a live trader...
Hi Marion... er, "Joe," nice to have you along! Thanks for setting the record straight on the origin of the flying buddha. I must say, based on my overall impression of Graeme that has formed over the course of this thread, I'm not the least bit surprised he chose to give the credit to somebody other than himself. He definitely comes across as that kind of guy and has earned the admiration of many here.

Regards,
Kevin
  • #1,716
  • Aug 30, 2010 12:33pm Aug 30, 2010 12:33pm
I am a little at a loss about exits for the long-term, major leg holds. Are we essentially only building and holding until the weekly shows a close past TL break or s/r, or something? Then eject on full? I was preparing a written outline and noticed there was no criteria for when to exit the final legs - or perhaps I missed it. Eventually the legs have to be closed, but I just don't know how aggressive / conservative we are looking to be
Thanks
  • #1,717
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:16pm Aug 30, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi guys!

I was lurking in this thread from the start..and now I've decided to join Graeme's 2 weeks project...

I'm working on demo with EURJPY and this is my plan:

Pair: EURJPY

Realistic expectation: Weekly chart. 100+ pips minimum

Hindsight: Up, reversal after Flying Buddha / Pin Bar

[size=2][font=Arial]Analysis: Last week was a typical reversal pattern. Good Pin Bar at a swing low. The week closed nearly the open price so this can...
Hi Chris_B

I also am working on the same idea as you, EURJPY long with hindsight, I see this weekly bar has already retraced about 50% of last weeks.

I was in long last night, but then price topped out and started coming down. After it had gone against me 30 pips, and broke the 200EMA onthe 5 min chart I anticipated that it was heading back to daily pivot point (which happened to be another 30 pips away). So I then opened a short poisition for twice the stake of the original long, closed both at daily pivot for a small net win in the end. Did exactly the same on USDJPY as well.

I then just opened a long and short at pretty much the pivot point for EURJPY and have left it until now (12 hours later). Now just waiting for a reason to close the short position for some profit, with a view for the long trend to take over. This is always the tricky part!

Cheers
Mark
  • #1,718
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:17pm Aug 30, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting qwerty00
I am a little at a loss about exits for the long-term, major leg holds. Are we essentially only building and holding until the weekly shows a close past TL break or s/r, or something? Then eject on full? I was preparing a written outline and noticed there was no criteria for when to exit the final legs - or perhaps I missed it. Eventually the legs have to be closed, but I just don't know how aggressive / conservative we are looking to be
Thanks
I agree that the exit strategy is not as well defined. However I believe that is because it does not need to be. If you try duplicate this method closely then you will diversify out of positions and into new positions as the trend appears to be changing. I personally prefer the term averaging out and averaging in but that's just semantics.

However, because the exit strategy is not as important there is opportunity to customize it to your preferences.
  • #1,719
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:20pm Aug 30, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting qwerty00
I am a little at a loss about exits for the long-term, major leg holds. Are we essentially only building and holding until the weekly shows a close past TL break or s/r, or something? Then eject on full? I was preparing a written outline and noticed there was no criteria for when to exit the final legs - or perhaps I missed it. Eventually the legs have to be closed, but I just don't know how aggressive / conservative we are looking to be
Thanks
The general idea is to hold on to them as long as you feel they will keep growing or if you think another pair is trending faster you could take some off and diverify Generally its to not cut your winners. When there winners leave em.
slit there throat wen there losers. well at least sack em lol.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,720
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:25pm Aug 30, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting mcornbill
Hi Chris_B

I also am working on the same idea as you, EURJPY long with hindsight, I see this weekly bar has already retraced about 50% of last weeks.

I was in long last night, but then price topped out and started coming down....
My #1 rule about hedging against the same pair is to NEVER open a new trade in the opposite direction when the current trade is already in the red. Believe me... you will be better off in the long run. Graeme only suggests to diversify when the current long/short legs have some floating profits with Stops set to BE.
Staying in my lane...
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