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  • #1,661
  • Aug 29, 2010 5:52pm Aug 29, 2010 5:52pm
On e/j.
looking for entries up at moment.
big reversal bar on weekly and flying budha
signals for up side.
it has started moving north lets see what this week brings
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,662
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:06pm Aug 29, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting paul1
On e/j.
looking for entries up at moment.
big reversal bar on weekly and flying budha
signals for up side.
it has started moving north lets see what this week brings
Volatile breakout failed 2 positions closed for average loss of -6.9 pips both closed manually. Pin bar has formed on hourly against hindsight. Time to just observe. Could be a retrace now to fib level or wick on the weekly. I thought that breakout so early in week was too good to be true!
  • #1,663
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:10pm Aug 29, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting paul1
On e/j.
looking for entries up at moment.
big reversal bar on weekly and flying budha
signals for up side.
it has started moving north lets see what this week brings
Hi Paul,

It is against strong 4H resistance at the moment. My hindsight is long also on weekly but just added a soldier on short side on 5M retrace to take a quick profit as it might touch Sunday open before going up again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Staying in my lane...
  • #1,664
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:17pm Aug 29, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting paul1
Hello can anyone help.
I never posted charts before I can save a chart to "my documents".
how can i post it in forex factory.
I copy it but when i click on window when creating post i dont get option to paste?
Thanks
Hi Paul,

If your using an MT4 platform, just right click on the chart you want to save, choose save as picture and save to a file on your desk top or "C" drive. In FF when you make a post go down below the submit reply button and find the manage attachments button. Click that button and then click browse button. Find the file where you saved the chart picture and attached it to the post by clicking upload. This will take a minute or two. Once that's done click the submit reply button. That should be it.
  • #1,665
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:23pm Aug 29, 2010 6:23pm
The one thing to be aware of is on Monday's opening most pairs finish the move they started on Friday. I typically wait for a few hours on Monday before I place any trades. Any other day this doesn't seem to matter but on Monday's I wait to see where price might be headed.

Just my two cents worth.
  • #1,666
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:38pm Aug 29, 2010 6:38pm
Ok back at london open look forward to working with you guys cya.
Bank holiday in england too might be slow day?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,667
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:43pm Aug 29, 2010 6:43pm
I've looked at just about every JPY cross and in almost all cases there is some sort of weekly pin bar forming. Has anyone noticed the slight difference between USDJPY, EURJPY and all of the other JPY crosses??? All JPY pairs hit new lows in early 2009 and retraced up during the past year. The only 2 pairs that have broken the lows establish in 2009 are USDJPY and EURJPY. Both have just made new lower lows while all other JPY crosses have not. Not sure if that is a significant point as all JPY crosses look like they could retrace to the upside at the moment.

Maybe Graeme will comment on this....
  • #1,668
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:51pm Aug 29, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting ozziedave
I know every one is waiting for Graeme's posts so I thought I'd show you how one might apply what Graeme has taught us.

Ok, so we start by determining the last weekly FB on the EURUSD. If you go back a few weeks you'll notice the last weekly FB was the week of 2 Aug to 6 Aug. Also notice this was an FB above the EMAs so we would be looking for trading opportunities on the short side. Now let's break this down into a real simple entry that every one can understand and combine it with a small enough time frame that almost every one can trade with...
Hi Dave,

I hugely applaud your effort to study and share that post. While I do agree with you in terms of the overall effect from what you show, you must realize that it is unrealistic because the human body cannot survive without sleep. I've tried various sleep schedules over my 6 years of trading and can honestly confirm that sleep is a required ingredient

However, since you have done the work above and seem to be moving towards collecting some baseline statistics for an objective and repeatable hindsight study. You may want to consider repeating the same thing you did above on several other pairs and several other weekly FBs until you have 100 or so trades in your list. Then I would suggest bootstrapping them for sample sizes of say 1000. Then I'd want to run that bootstrapping another 1000 times. This should give you some baseline limits that you can use with some confidence. Even if you are only recording S, BE, or L.

Excellent post, thank you for sharing it.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #1,669
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:52pm Aug 29, 2010 6:52pm
Beware the ***JPY pairs at the moment. The BOJ is jawboning about intervention - something they have not done for a few years. They say they want a weaker YEN but seem happy enough with a strong YEN at the moment.
And this weeks JPY Balance of Trade was a nice green figure
  • #1,670
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:17pm Aug 29, 2010 7:17pm
My usd/jpy leg is -20 toady and my usd/chf lege is +40 not even legs more like toes.
  • #1,671
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:18pm Aug 29, 2010 7:18pm
We have a bullish FB on EU Weekly chart and a bearish FB on EU Daily chart (Sundays candle).

What to do in such a situation?
Attached Images
  • #1,672
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:20pm Aug 29, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting MidKnight
Hi Dave,

I hugely applaud your effort to study and share that post. While I do agree with you in terms of the overall effect from what you show, you must realize that it is unrealistic because the human body cannot survive without sleep. I've tried various sleep schedules over my 6 years of trading and can honestly confirm that sleep is a required ingredient

However, since you have done the work above and seem to be moving towards collecting some baseline statistics for an objective and repeatable hindsight study. You may want to consider repeating...
Hi MK..

I wasn't suggesting anyone could trade the 15M chart like I showed. I was only demonstrating how one could use the weekly in conjunction with the 15M chart to trade if they wanted too. You would just take the 15M trades that you would see during the time your at your computer.
  • #1,673
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:20pm Aug 29, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting fguru
We have a bullish FB on EU Weekly chart and a bearish FB on EU Daily chart (Sundays candle).

What to do in such a situation?
My opinion, diversify... take 5min positions in both directions until there is a winner and stack like mad with the trend. Diversification at this point will place you nearest the wick end that will survive longest, right???

RDWatkins

edit: According to the FB entry guidelines and trend as they emerge of course.
  • #1,674
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:27pm Aug 29, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Reverb
Beware the ***JPY pairs at the moment. The BOJ is jawboning about intervention - something they have not done for a few years. They say they want a weaker YEN but seem happy enough with a strong YEN at the moment.
And this weeks JPY Balance of Trade was a nice green figure

Yes, this is very important. Just the fact the the JOB is talking about intervention will make people nervous about getting caught short on these pairs. The JOB doesn't want the yen to get any stronger against the USD and EUR since they're the biggest export markets for Japan.
  • #1,675
  • Edited 7:56pm Aug 29, 2010 7:32pm | Edited 7:56pm
Good morning, all

Thank you all for the participation.

Most readers are charging forward and it is fantastic to see.

Keep it very simple please.

Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says UP. No trade.
Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says DOWN. 5min price action says UP. No trade until 5min also agrees.

Throughout the week, ask yourself is price action really to your anticipation.

Most of the time it will be not.

This is a psychological aspect. The market moves slower than most traders expectations vs time. Please remember that.

Also, you do not need to stay up all night as that will affect your health. There is no such thing as too late in forex but always too early. I sense that many traders are in a rush which a is healthy dose of motivation however market moves much slower than your motivation.

At the end of 2 weeks. "Graeme, my weekly hindsight 2 weeks ago didnt work out. However, for the potential profit of few hundred pips, I lost -200 pips overall."

That is a fantastic result. A weekly opporunity that works out will reap thousands and thousands while you stretch the profit taking and you took calculated risk but unfortunately turned out -200. Remember world/life/market doesnt end with this one opportunity.

This is where your money management may come into practice. Tell yourself, I spent 200 pips just on the last weekly hindsight. How many more can I sustain? If its anything above 20 more opportunities (for the new starters) than your capital is fine. And thats all to money management. Even if you adhered to one pair of currency, look at x20 weekly candles. Im sure there are few segments within that 20 candles (5 months) that are absolutely profit making. All agree?

For now I will take a step back and let all traders take hold of their actions and prove to themselves they can. And I say you can. You can.

All the answers are here but inside you already. Everyone is doing well.

Thank you for private messages/emails I will answer them shortly.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,676
  • Edited 8:30pm Aug 29, 2010 8:02pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, all

Thank you all for the participation.

Most readers are charging forward and it is fantastic to see.

Keep it very simple please.

Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says UP. No trade.
Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says DOWN. 5min price action says UP. No trade until 5min also agrees.

Throughout the week, ask yourself is price action really to your anticipation.

Most of the time it will be not.

This is a psychological aspect. The market moves slower than most traders expectations...
Hi All

I really like this post. There are many statements within that could be quoted as traders mantras.

For instance these are very wise words IMHO "The market moves slower than most traders expectations vs time."

Or

"Remember world/life/market doesnt end with this one opportunity"



  • #1,677
  • Aug 29, 2010 9:38pm Aug 29, 2010 9:38pm
Hi Guys

I have cable, EURJPY & USDJPY long. Hindsight gained from weekly low test bars and possible "anticipation" of Yen interception. All positions in profit, stops will be moved to breakeven just before Euro session opens.

Pair I'm waiting for some explosive action on is NZDUSD:

http://www.xboxmod.co.uk/NZDUSD.JPG

Happy trading all ;-)
  • #1,678
  • Aug 29, 2010 10:08pm Aug 29, 2010 10:08pm
I was hoping for price to go back up before reversal.

Looks like this has already started the downward journey. Should we look for some tight entries and join the move or wait for some eventual retracement?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #1,679
  • Aug 29, 2010 10:16pm Aug 29, 2010 10:16pm
Now I was expecting a retrace on the yen but that was ridiculous!!!!
  • #1,680
  • Aug 29, 2010 10:52pm Aug 29, 2010 10:52pm
It's possible the yen pairs may retrace upto 50% of the weekly pin bars before they attempt another up move. Even though the USDJPY and EURJPY are in a downtrend the weekly pin bars and the fact they are FBs with the threat of BOJ intervention makes me very hesitant about taking short positions. I may wait until the weekly pin bars are broken to the downside before I think about shorting these pairs.

Again, just my opinion for what it's worth.
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