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  • #1,581
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:53am Aug 28, 2010 8:53am
Hi Paul,

This might be right if we were trading equities... but this is forex, so the whole short side only thingy means nothing. If you knew with absolute certainty what the (one and only) risk factor was... you could pick a single direction and currency to trade. In forex you could get news that causes the EUR to crash, the USD to crash, the JPY to crash ... etc and vice versa... this means you cant predict a "safe side" for a currency pair.

It could go mental to the upside or the downside depending on what country the economic/geopolitical development has taken place in. By the same token... you dont know whether something significant is going to happen to cause the whole risk on/risk off (risk aversion model) to shift either way... or whether its is in vogue or out of vogue.,.. coming into vogue or going out of vogue.

Basically, ... there are too many variables, and the fact that you are always quoting one currency against the other... you cant be sure if "short only" is gonna be the safe side forever.

I would guess that 'Joe's' short-only rule stems from the psychological side of things. Many people watching the same major pairs will attach differernt meanings (or give more creedance) to breakouts to the downside rather than breaks to the upside. The market tends to fall more quickly than it rises (say, for a major pair - once you get into the crosses its all relative).

Given that Joe is trying to build big-ass positions on relatively quick and clean moves... it prob makes sense to try and target the types of moves that will be smoother rides. This is obviously easier said than done, but maybe he subscribes to the whole thing about sell offs happeneing quicker and cleaner than rallys.

Either way... apparently he's making a butt-load of cash doing it...

Cheers
MM


Quoting paul1
Hello, I Have a Theory about joe.
graeme if i understand has only been doing actual trading for relatively short time 2 years if i'am not mistaken.
But has applied to trading the methods he uses in his original business.

Joe if i understand does shorter term trading only on short side.If i assume he has been trading for many years he may have been hurt at some point by market crashes that have occurred fast and unexpectedly.

In these events you struggle to exit /enter and people with open positions long lose there shirt in minutes .There are...
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,582
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:11am Aug 28, 2010 9:11am
Quoting Ari Gold
Hi Paul,

This might be right if we were trading equities... but this is forex, so the whole short side only thingy means nothing. If you knew with absolute certainty what the (one and only) risk factor was... you could pick a single direction and currency to trade. In forex you could get news that causes the EUR to crash, the USD to crash, the JPY to crash ... etc and vice versa... this means you cant predict a "safe side" for a currency pair.

It could go mental to the upside or the downside depending on what country the economic/geopolitical...
Yes your right missed that rather important detail lol.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,583
  • Aug 28, 2010 10:39am Aug 28, 2010 10:39am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
THis thread has potencial but wondering PIpEeasy do you make money with this ?
Petar in one of the posts Graeme has already mentioned he's made 7million with this approach and his percentage gain is over 700%

The point he's trying to make is to trade for infinity yield not to limit profit by using targets.
  • #1,584
  • Aug 28, 2010 11:19am Aug 28, 2010 11:19am
Allthough many years have passed. I still recall a multiple choice exam question that stated "To see is to observe and to observe is only a step away from the mind and its memory. This statement best describes a......b.....c.....d?" I've thought about this question many times and often wondered why my mind chose to remember it. I also believe that when the student is ready - the answer will be revealed. Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up and get ready for a ride that will change your life forever.
  • #1,585
  • Aug 28, 2010 11:32am Aug 28, 2010 11:32am
For anyone looking for more information on Utility Theory I have attached a PDF with the topic.

You might also find alot of interesting reads through the postings of Joel Rensink.

Some may have read his work which is on the same lines (not sure if Graeme had read his stuff before) but I encourage you to have a look.

RT

PS I have read through the bulk of this thread so dont shoot me if this has been posted already
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Trading+for+Infinite+yield--+Utility+theory+and+you.pdf   378 KB | 2,908 downloads
  • #1,586
  • Aug 28, 2010 3:13pm Aug 28, 2010 3:13pm
In the last few pages we seem to have gotten in a debate about taking short term profits vs long term gains. Throughout the thread Graeme has pointed out the advantage of holding a position for long term gains. He has also pointed out that one must diversify and take short term profits to smooth out your equity curve and replenish trading capital. So even though the long term objective is to have a few legs survive that does not mean that you don't take some short term profits.

I know many of us will struggle with the idea of letting a position that is up 200-300 pips come back to BE. I think that is why you need to enter every position with 2 lots (whatever size suits your account) and take profit on one lot and let the other ride until it goes into long term profit or comes back to BE.

If you think about it, you can have the best of both worlds by combining your goals of having some long term legs survive with the need to take some profit out of the market by using 2 lot entries. Trading in this manner will at least provide the opportunity to develop long term legs in your portfolio. If you keep closing all of your positions when you think price is turning against your position you will never be able to develop any long term legs to your millipede.

Adopting Graeme's approach to looking at the market for long term gains certain challenged me to re-think my trading mentality and how I viewed the market.
  • #1,587
  • Aug 28, 2010 3:56pm Aug 28, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting ozziedave
In the last few pages we seem to have gotten in a debate about taking short term profits vs long term gains. Throughout the thread Graeme has pointed out the advantage of holding a position for long term gains. He has also pointed out that one must diversify and take short term profits to smooth out your equity curve and replenish trading capital. So even though the long term objective is to have a few legs survive that does not mean that you don't take some short term profits.

I know many of us will struggle with the idea of letting a position...
Totally agree this is what i propose to do from next week.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,588
  • Aug 28, 2010 4:15pm Aug 28, 2010 4:15pm
Graeme isn't interested in short term gains so he lets them come back to break even. When he started he was financialy secure already.
I personally am not.
I have a personal rule that is ,"not to let a winner turn into a loser".
Also I wouldnt dream of letting a position that had been 100 pips green go to break even.
I will decide as i go along how close to b.e. i will let it come based on the action at the time.
I will takes some pips after all if its so close there is nothing stopping me getting back in.
If i had 7 million dont think i would be bothered same as graeme and would have a minimum profit that i would take.
Until i have the luxury of setting a minimum profit.
once a position has moved more than say 50 pips i will go say b.e. plus 10 pips.this will be reviewed.
But i will aim to stick to the principals of the method whilst tailoring it to suit my circumstances.
No point me saying different just being honest.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #1,589
  • Edited 4:57pm Aug 28, 2010 4:40pm | Edited 4:57pm
It seems that someone have to put more front money in it, see #74 , please,... despite of that what you could read in #11 , nevertheless an attractive trading concept,...no doubt!
  • #1,590
  • Aug 28, 2010 6:20pm Aug 28, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting ozziedave
In the last few pages we seem to have gotten in a debate about taking short term profits vs long term gains. Throughout the thread Graeme has pointed out the advantage of holding a position for long term gains. He has also pointed out that one must diversify and take short term profits to smooth out your equity curve and replenish trading capital. So even though the long term objective is to have a few legs survive that does not mean that you don't take some short term profits.

I know many of us will struggle with the idea of letting a position...
Hi Dave,
I was also subscribing to the 2 lot theory. My problem is that my entries are still quite sloppy. With this in mind I now start with 1 lot and add second as soon as I get confirmation. On a flying buddah for example i will try and get 1st lot on at the wick of the next candle, then second lot at the breakout. This way when the move goes against me I only loose 1 lot. It has certainly helped with my draw-downs while the effect on profit is minimal. Like you say having 2 legs really helps with diversification.
Regards,
Ben
  • #1,591
  • Aug 28, 2010 6:28pm Aug 28, 2010 6:28pm
Good morning, all

Thank you for the posts and the compliments.

Since we have more participants/readers now than when I first started the thread, I acknowledge all compliments in my mind and thank you for them. Apologies if I do not acknowledge them in the posts as I try my best to keep this thread from growing more than necessary.

Last few hours, I have read all the new questions in the recent posts, private messages.

I thought perhaps I could leave some of these questions for the question asker to step back and think. Because if they turn off their computer and sat silently and thought about what they were really asking, the answer might emerge from all the related information I have supplied so far. I assumed that alot of readers had this type of sensible realistic reasoning power.

This is not an attack on the integrity of the questions. There is no such thing as wrong question and I ask for your understanding.

It is common human behaviour/characteristic to ask a question and expect a direct answer back. However, for any of the readers who are in the education industry knows that this is not how we show/teach. The 'show-er' leads the question-asker just enough for the question-asker to have an 'aha' moment on their own. That is effective learning.

"Dad, I have a friend who's brithday is coming up but I dont know what to get him"
"Son, get him a new baseball cap. All boys like them"

The above dad may be true about boys liking baseball caps but what does this teach the son? All guys like baseball cap? Does dad's answer teach his son anything else but his personal assumption that boys like baseball caps? Im sure dad can stop there and answer his son with an answer that may sound slightly offhand but lead to a better understanding about not just his son's friends birthday but perhaps a related life teaching.

"Dad, I have a friend who's brithday is coming up but I dont know what to get him"
"Son, what do you think?"
"Dad, I dont know so Im asking you"
"Son, I dont know your friend well however I think if you get him any present you really think he will like than it is the effort your friend will appreciate"
"??? But dad, what I think he might like but he might not like"
"That is true son. And you wont know what he likes until you ask him but you wouldn't do that to ruin the surprise"
"Ofcourse Dad"
"Then son, you have to think. You have known your friend few years so you know what he likes. Perhaps he likes sport? Baseball? What do you guys do when you meet up?
"Uhh... we play baseball often at the park. He loves it"
"Then what do you think, son?"
"OK dad. I sort of get it"

And thats what I do here.

However, before questions grow into problems and then disputes amongst the readers, please allow me to extinguish once for all the current questions/problems/discrepancies you may believe that you see.

Continuing on..
  • #1,592
  • Aug 28, 2010 6:58pm Aug 28, 2010 6:58pm
There are many many questions on current readers lips.

For once I will supply a direct answer to the questions asked and then leave little space for you to think.

Why does Joe only trade sell?

Joe only trade sells as he also knows very well that in forex everything is all relative. You can trade sell/buy to potentially profit more and potentially take slightly more losses. However you can be just as effective to trade one direction not just with flying buddha but any price pattern; pin bar, inside bar, engulf and still achieve success. Why? Its because the important ingredient required is what you do during the opportunity. You need to stretch the given opportunity to the maximum profit taking and keep your loss static and as small as possible. Its not the flying buddha that creates profit for you but your ability to minimize risk and expand on profits. Joe has sharpened his focal interpretation to interpret price action very well when coming down. We all agree that price action going down is exactly the same as price going up but we are looking at it upside down. Joe agrees that he still cannot make a focal connection between price action coming down and going up. He knows its the same but he notices that his personal focal interpretation is better when price is coming down and as he knows very well its all relative in the markets hence he knows he can create just as much profit by participating one side of the direction. Hope this helps.

Graeme, you said this before and now you say this?

Good observation. If you are genuinely under learning mode and not auto-attack mode, I ask you to sit back and think.

First of all, my initial intention of this thread was roughly 10 pages. I didnt have time nor the intention to go into depth on any particular subject. Few readers comment that everything I have said is already said. Yes, true. But then I wonder if its already being said few times why there are still losing traders? Its because you cannot teach everyone and expect all of them to come down to your focal interpretation overnight. And since this is a public forum and your dealing with many many traders all with different skills, focal interpretation, trading traits, trading beliefs it makes it almost impossible. How many trading system threads actually created successful traders? I dare say not many. How do I know? Just like a dad looking at his son growing up, he can look down and into his own past to see where his son is currently standing. You can try and concel very hard what you do not know and what you might know but it just shows in your writing. Think about this as you might think you are doing a great job covering your tracks but professionals who are above and beyond you, can just tell.

I had to squeeze what I do in the first 10 pages of this thread. All I intended to do was just tell them how I was trading 'briefly' and diversification and bid farewell. Which I did near the start.

Then I was asked about questions and my entries.

I moved on and explained to how to enter is not important but the participation.

This caused more interest and more questions.

So, through the sheer frustration, I showed everyone just .00 entries with 2 position entries. I failed when I saw all readers taking things literally.

It was a losing battle for me already.

All I could do is keep going and hopefully few do manage to connect.

And we are here now.

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> I diversify when there is growth -> Thank you

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> but also trade lower timeframes -> cause I know the importance of partcipation -> I diversify when there is growth -> Thank you

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> but also trade lower timeframes -> cause I know the importance of partcipation -> I diversify when there is growth -> yes, i also trade lower timeframe and these are the charts I use -> Thank you

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> cause I know what has happened from 2 weeks ago -> but also trade lower timeframes -> cause I know the importance of partcipation -> I diversify when there is growth -> yes, i also trade lower timeframe and these are the charts I use -> i use momentum on lower timeframe -> Thank you

Im not surprised its all confusing and I apologize and admit there was no intended flow. My writing was expanded and grew so I can answer all the questions and then pull any readers behind in the understanding before proceeding with the next topic.

I ask for your understanding.

I will return later on with the posts and further explanation of the project

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,593
  • Aug 28, 2010 7:41pm Aug 28, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting paul1
Graeme isn't interested in short term gains so he lets them come back to break even. When he started he was financialy secure already.
I personally am not.
I have a personal rule that is ,"not to let a winner turn into a loser".
Also I wouldnt dream of letting a position that had been 100 pips green go to break even.
I will decide as i go along how close to b.e. i will let it come based on the action at the time.
I will takes some pips after all if its so close there is nothing stopping me getting back in.
If i had 7 million dont think i would...
I cant say for certain that this is correct, it is merely my interpretation of the mindset of Graeme.

He doesnt consider watching 200 pips or more go to zero a hard thing because at some point he would have diversified his trades, therefore he would have positions that counter the trades that are heading towards BE in the interest of larger movements.

So if he was short a few legs that were up 200 + pips and there was a point where he felt was compelling to diversify (could be back with the major trend) then he would be adding positions that would take the slack of the short positions with the scope that these 'new' positions will run past 200 pips thereby putting him in better place.

Now some will not understand this. Those with shorter intentions will immediately think, why not take profit on the short positions first. The answer will be that we dont know whether the new long positions will do there job, they may get stopped in action, they may not however he is set his positions in play for the longer run.

Now I am in Ozziedaves boat in that I like to get multiple positions in play and take some profit which will over time take out some of the jaggedness of the equity curve. The profit factor of doing this vs just holding full posi's in my testing hasnt been big, in most cases the benefit is around .10-.15 better. Over the long run this will add up to larger potential gains, however you will see slightly larger drawdown and during really rough periods you will notice frustration levels go up.

In the context of getting down to the nitty gritty timeframes you will notice one thing and that is the risk parameters are so tight. This can be highly beneficial if you are looking to protect multiple positions in that you only need small moves to lock in BE. In the case that you get some strong breakouts you can quite easily net 10:1 R/R on 1 position and level your SL where it was on the other. 10:1 is better on half your % risked than most will get trading daily candles because the weight of your positions for the fractional risk will allow greater short term gains.

If you risked just 1% (2 positions of .5%) and got 10:1 on one position you would have at worst on a market reversal around 4.5% growth.

It really is a mindblowing ideology however the payoff comes after months and years of holding positions with turn those pathetic little soldiers (as you guys call them) into Army Generals.

RT
  • #1,594
  • Edited 9:33pm Aug 28, 2010 9:16pm | Edited 9:33pm
I know alot of people like to see systems back tested so for those people I did a visual back test of the EURUSD. Granted it wasn't run through some simulator but it will give you an idea of what you might expect.

Ok, I used the EURUSD weekly chart and I found every clear FB, the FB had to be clearly above or below the 5/10 EMAs. If above the EMA it was a short trade and below the EMAs it was a long trade. SL was the top of the FB for short trades and the bottom of the FB for long trades. Between 10/4/1998 and 1/4/2004 I counted 50 FBs on my MT4 platform.

Results:

11 trades went into profit and if you lost money you just weren't paying attention. Two of these positions went for 20 weeks.

12 trades went into profit and depending on your money management could have either been profit or BE.

7 trades were clearly losers and taken out at the bottom or top of the FB candle.

20 were No Trades - the next weeks price did not exceed either the bottom or top of the FB. Basically an inside candle week.


Note: 2 of the winning positions went for 20 weeks each. So balance that with the 7 FBs that were losers and you can see these 2 winning positions would have easily made up for the losers. Now add in all of the other winning positions and the possible profits from those positions that were profit/break even and you would have a nice equity curve going north.

No, I didn't count all of the pips but you would have clearly made way more than you would have lost.

Just some food for thought when you are considering whether trading weekly TF can be profitable or not.....
  • #1,595
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:51pm Aug 28, 2010 9:51pm
Quoting ozziedave
I know alot of people like to see systems back tested so for those people I did a visual back test of the EURUSD. Granted it wasn't run through some simulator but it will give you an idea of what you might expect.

Ok, I used the EURUSD weekly chart and I found every clear FB, the FB had to be clearly above or below the 5/10 EMAs. If above the EMA it was a short trade and below the EMAs it was a long trade. SL was the top of the FB for short trades and the bottom of the FB for long trades. Between 10/4/1998 and 1/4/2004 I counted 50 FBs on my MT4...

So just weekly using weekly type SL (ie. big loss)? Interesting. Can't think of a less stressful set it and forget type system than trading weekly bars. You could basically do all your analysis on the weekend and enter your trades Sunday afternoon then just forget about it till the next weekend.

And that would give plenty of time to look at 20+ pairs without breaking a sweat. Although weekly SL size would sting quite a bit when taking a loss.
  • #1,596
  • Aug 28, 2010 10:20pm Aug 28, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting pip_daddy
So just weekly using weekly type SL (ie. big loss)? Interesting. Can't think of a less stressful set it and forget type system than trading weekly bars. You could basically do all your analysis on the weekend and enter your trades Sunday afternoon then just forget about it till the next weekend.

And that would give plenty of time to look at 20+ pairs without breaking a sweat. Although weekly SL size would sting quite a bit when taking a loss.
Hi Pip_daddy...

Yes, a weekly candle loss would sting a bit but you have to keep in mind that all of the winning trades went up or down from the entry multiple weeks and the other trades that I denoted as profit/BE typically went up or down from the entry 1-3 weeks. I would assume that most traders would take some profit out of those trades that were profit/BE. So if you look at a 50 week span you will make profit on 23 of the 30 entries with 20 weeks of no trades. That's nearly an 80% win rate.

Before I did this back test I would never have guessed that just trading weekly candles would produce a win rate that high. Now with that said I am not suggesting that anyone trade the weekly candles with the potential for that kind of drawdown. What one might do is determine the direction of the next weeks price action using the weekly FB and then drop down to a smaller TF that suits your risk tolerance and trade in that direction.
  • #1,597
  • Aug 28, 2010 10:30pm Aug 28, 2010 10:30pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Pip_daddy...

Yes, a weekly candle loss would sting a bit but you have to keep in mind that all of the winning trades went up or down from the entry multiple weeks and the other trades that I denoted as profit/BE typically went up or down from the entry 1-3 weeks. I would assume that most traders would take some profit out of those trades that were profit/BE. So if you look at a 50 week span you will make profit on 23 of the 29 entries with 19 weeks of no trades. That's nearly an 80% win rate.

Before I did this back test I would never...
Absolutely Dave.

Thank you for the explanation.

One single good flying buddha will bring in thousands and thousands for over an extended period of time. Some not so good flying buddhas will still bring in profits that are caught in diversification or closed out at traders personal choice. Both methods capturing both short/medium and the potential of infinity reward. Covering all possible scenario and still growing your equity little by little until that golden opportunity comes along with 10+ weeks of movement.

Consider a monthly hindsight that lasts 2+ years. Remember 2001 to 2007 eur/usd up trend? It all started with x1 single flying buddha at 2001 June which was also heavy support from 2000 oct and november. Price never came back for 6 years after that x1 flying buddha.

Im still waiting for one of those, thats why im still prodding here and there on the monthly. Some are growing but i dont know if they will grow like eur/usd 6+ years of uptrend. I can only 'anticipate.' And while Im anticipating Im capturing short/medium growth and continuing to add realized profit into my trade balance making sure worst case scenario I still have something for my efforts.

Just letting all readers know Im still preparing the lost charts from yesterday.

Edit: I should add that price for eur/usd 'still' hasnt come back and perhaps the downtrend of the last 2 years was only a 50% fib of this uptrend? Market doesnt know we are talking/looking at a monthly chart. Its all relative.

Talk to you all very soon

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,598
  • Aug 28, 2010 11:17pm Aug 28, 2010 11:17pm
I just had to register to come and witness it for myself.
It took some time to skim through few pages but im pleasantly surprised at the effort graeme has placed.
Not many individuals can or will do this feat of charity.

Graeme, has humourously named me 'joe' and the founder of flying buddha. Truth be told, the actual founder was none other than Graeme himself and he deserves the recognition. This is just one of the ways graeme works and it is a true gesture of his humbleness.

Everything he said about me is true and I have been a live trader for few years and in the later years have found great success from trading FBs only. Graeme's tutelage has been the main reason of my success. For the record, flying buddha was noticed by graeme when he examined history for price abnormality. I feel obliged to post this correction for the due admiration to be properly placed.

Graeme I hope you dont mind about this small surprise.

Take care

-Marion
  • #1,599
  • Aug 28, 2010 11:32pm Aug 28, 2010 11:32pm
Master Graeme:

My impression so far is that your reasoning and elaboration are incredibly logical and organised. your expression skill is among the best on the FF. if you don't trade, you may be an outstanding teaching professor. you are too modest and there is no need to feel sorry for your well-written wisdom.

however, we should be realistic----you cannot make it mastered/learned by everyone. there is no point pursuing that.

i learned a huge lot, and according to the other respondents, many of the followers are far beyond my understanding. your contributions are definitely significant. no hard feeling at all...

many thanks again.

Quoting pipEASY
Im not surprised its all confusing and I apologize and admit there was no intended flow. My writing was expanded and grew so I can answer all the questions and then pull any readers behind in the understanding before proceeding with the next topic.


Graeme
  • #1,600
  • Aug 29, 2010 12:39am Aug 29, 2010 12:39am
I know every one is waiting for Graeme's posts so I thought I'd show you how one might apply what Graeme has taught us.

Ok, so we start by determining the last weekly FB on the EURUSD. If you go back a few weeks you'll notice the last weekly FB was the week of 2 Aug to 6 Aug. Also notice this was an FB above the EMAs so we would be looking for trading opportunities on the short side. Now let's break this down into a real simple entry that every one can understand and combine it with a small enough time frame that almost every one can trade with small drawn downs or loses.

So here we go, let's go straight to the 15 M chart and the only entries we'll take are FBs to the down side. I will do this day by day for 5 days just to show you how this might work for you.

I have number all entries and beside the entries you'll see <S> Survive, <L> Loss or <BE> for break even. If it has an <S> it would still be open as of the end of the week 27 Aug and in profit.

1. First chart shows the weekly FB has formed - indigo rectangle.
2. Day 1 chart shows 3 entries that have survived until 27 Aug.
3. Day 2 shows 4 entries with only 1 surviving until 27 Aug.
4. Day 3 shows 5 entries with 2 surviving until 27 Aug.
5. Day 4 shows 5 entries with 1 surviving until 27 Aug.
6. Day 5 shows 3 entries with no entries surviving until 27 Aug.

I know this is short term but if you look at this simple entry methodology you would have 7 positions still open and in profit on 27 Aug. Not bad for 15 M chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd fb week 4 29.08.10.gif Size: 31 KB
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