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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #249,561
  • Aug 28, 2010 12:42pm Aug 28, 2010 12:42pm
following this weekends discussion I have a comment

we are not in a bull market nor a bear market .. instead this is a wolf market. One where as soon as you think a trend is starting the wolf comes and bites you in the arse and gobbles up your profits.

gartlys , moving averages , vsa , h and s will all work to some degree in this market as they do in every market. No point in arguing that .... but fact is in current market conditions ( last few months) keep the stops toght , the mm real and take profits off the table when they are there.... this is what I have come to understand , till the congestion that we are seeing on global indexes breaks out to upside or down side.

last few months have been one of the most frustrating in stocks. my 30 year bond futures did well as did my gld options , other than that I have been having a roller coaster ride with profitable trades being stopped out for partial profits etc etc.

those that have the time and patience to day trade can make some good coin

I have switched alot to trading es and have a strategy that makes me 5 to 10 points a day in under 1 hour. ( do not ask me about it I need to keep my edge somehow)

now for dx ... and this pretty much ties in with the temp weakness I am seeing on the 30 year bond charts....

pip chick .. this one is for you .... look for 82 test , if you see low vol on the down day that 82 is tested then we may see move towards top of channel 83.7 once more. really dx seems sideways for now till the 82 to 83.60 channel breaks. I am hoping this happens in sept and we get a bit more direction to the market

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  • #249,562
  • Aug 28, 2010 1:27pm Aug 28, 2010 1:27pm
look like there is still a chance that 1.5715 will get hit, i would love to see cloggie make a trade call where he say i went long or short and this is my t/p and s/l in stead of telling everybody about his charts and how to set it up, lets see if he can do that, i bet your find him loose more then he wins, just my thought, any way lets see where we at by monday, im flat at the moment, but all signs still point to 1.5715, just have to wait and see. il be with the trend either way, good luck to all
  • #249,563
  • Edited 2:08pm Aug 28, 2010 1:57pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting fxoxford
look like there is still a chance that 1.5715 will get hit, i would love to see cloggie make a trade call where he say i went long or short and this is my t/p and s/l in stead of telling everybody about his charts and how to set it up, lets see if he can do that, i bet your find him loose more then he wins, just my thought, any way lets see where we at by monday, im flat at the moment, but all signs still point to 1.5715, just have to wait and see. il be with the trend either way, good luck to all
Give the poor psycho a break. It can't be easy going through life with voices in your head screaming "turd, muppet commercial" etc, etc etc all the time!!!
  • #249,564
  • Aug 28, 2010 2:16pm Aug 28, 2010 2:16pm
you realy think some one is making money is gonna help you make make money the way they do
  • #249,565
  • Aug 28, 2010 2:18pm Aug 28, 2010 2:18pm
Mooi manne mooi, julle daai ausies hard in hulle vy gespeel.
First time in a few weeks i am happy, gl guy, happy batling lol.
The south african oaks impresd me tonight, but de villiers is stil a damn drol.
  • #249,566
  • Aug 28, 2010 2:24pm Aug 28, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting david777
Give the poor psycho a break. It can't be easy going through life with voices in your head screaming "turd, muppet commercial" etc, etc etc all the time!!!
  • #249,567
  • Aug 28, 2010 2:24pm Aug 28, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
Mooi manne mooi, julle daai ausies hard in hulle vy gespeel.
First time in a few weeks i am happy, gl guy, happy batling lol.
The south african oaks impresd me tonight, but de villiers is stil a damn drol.
Was that a reference to rugby (first line)? My afrikaans is not so good!
  • #249,568
  • Aug 28, 2010 2:26pm Aug 28, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
Mooi manne mooi, julle daai ausies hard in hulle vy gespeel.
First time in a few weeks i am happy, gl guy, happy batling lol.
The south african oaks impresd me tonight, but de villiers is stil a damn drol.
good luck to you to
  • #249,569
  • Aug 28, 2010 2:29pm Aug 28, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting david777
Was that a reference to rugby (first line)? My afrikaans is not so good!
yeah for the rugby yes.
Let me point out for a yank your afrikaans is not to shabby, for starters you did not call it african thts a really good start.

GL to you to
  • #249,570
  • Aug 28, 2010 4:02pm Aug 28, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting malcolmb14
following this weekends discussion I have a comment

we are not in a bull market nor a bear market .. instead this is a wolf market. One where as soon as you think a trend is starting the wolf comes and bites you in the arse and gobbles up your profits.

gartlys , moving averages , vsa , h and s will all work to some degree in this market as they do in every market. No point in arguing that .... but fact is in current market conditions ( last few months) keep the stops toght , the mm real and take profits off the table when they are there.......
MUST agree with you... Last week was ok but hell, this week was terrible for trading! Oxford, Cloggie actually makes many trade calls and I can promise you, he is right about 90% of the time, TO THE PIP!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #249,571
  • Edited 4:25pm Aug 28, 2010 4:13pm | Edited 4:25pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
MUST agree with you... Last week was ok but hell, this week was terrible for trading! Oxford, Cloggie actually makes many trade calls and I can promise you, he is right about 90% of the time, TO THE PIP!
Yes, malcolmb14's post was very helpful and much appreciated.

If you are right about the psycho, it is such a terrible shame that what he offers is undone by that massive chip on his shoulder about something, and his need to belittle, abuse and bully other people.

Everyone has the right to their own opinion and the right to express it. This is not North Korea and cloggie is not our Dear Leader!!!
  • #249,572
  • Aug 28, 2010 4:46pm Aug 28, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting david777
Yes, malcolmb14's post was very helpful and much appreciated.

If you are right about the psycho, it is such a terrible shame that what he offers is undone by that massive chip on his shoulder about something, and his need to belittle, abuse and bully other people.

Everyone has the right to their own opinion and the right to express it. This is not North Korea and cloggie is not our Dear Leader!!!
HEHE, you know how the dutch are about being perfect, almost like the germans... Cloggs does make a point though, I'm pretty new to this game and when I see people put up Gartleys and they fail time after time I would maybe lose confidence in them and not bother to check them out for myself...

He doesn't always do it in the nicest way but his reasons are sound. We get soo many guys who come on here for a couple of weeks spewing the biggest load of BULL and the only way to keep them under control is to point them out.

I don't know what the whole story is, I'm a passivist and don't like confrontations unless it is something which I KNOW is right as I have experienced / researched it myself. Like my faith in Christ, same thing... If someone spews a skewed view of him on here, I will come out all guns blazing to prove that the person is wrong so it doesn't mislead others...

Cloggs is a good trader and a great guy, I would vouch for him, just I cant! I don't know the other guys yet but if they have any backbone it wouldn't worry them that they get crapped on. If you can't take a bit of a lashing, you aint gonna make it anyways! Cloggs has lashed me many a time and I just keep coming back

Lrt me go and read up on those gartleys now...

PS what does ES stand for... Searched everywhere so I don't look like a fool but hey, no luck
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #249,573
  • Aug 28, 2010 4:57pm Aug 28, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
HEHE, you know how the dutch are about being perfect, almost like the germans... Cloggs does make a point though, I'm pretty new to this game and when I see people put up Gartleys and they fail time after time I would maybe lose confidence in them and not bother to check them out for myself...

He doesn't always do it in the nicest way but his reasons are sound. We get soo many guys who come on here for a couple of weeks spewing the biggest load of BULL and the only way to keep them under control is to point them out.

I don't know what the whole...
Good for you pawpaw1000. I respect you. But please let me ask you a question, why should people have to have a backbone or worry about getting crapped on? Why can't people just be respectful of others and their opinions instead?

Didn't someone once get nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be if everyone was nice to each other for a change. (Sorry about the paraphrasing - no offence intended - hope that you get the point I am trying to make)
  • #249,574
  • Aug 28, 2010 5:02pm Aug 28, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting david777
Good for you pawpaw1000. I respect you. But please let me ask you a question, why should people have to have a backbone or worry about getting crapped on? Why can't people just be respectful of others and their opinions instead?

Didn't someone once get nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be if everyone was nice to each other for a change. (Sorry about the paraphrasing - no offence intended - hope that you get the point I am trying to make)
Yes, but then you enter the real world and see it doesn't work that way my friend. In this world it is do or die, eat or be eaten.

If you look at trading, you will not always be profitable, you will most likely blow many accounts... YOU NEED A BACKBONE!

If you look at life, your wife might die and you don't have the will to live... YOU NEED A BACKBONE!

Now... Someone wants to help you and at the same time thinks he is acting in the greater good by crapping on you and pointing out all your faults... YOU HAVE 2 CHOICES, go sit in a corner and never post again, therefore never learning. OR say, I'm sorry, I'm not a super duper trader, I dont have 50 clients like I said and my analysis shouldn't be seen as infallible... You can then learn like all the rest of us...

Welcome to the real world boys, lifes tough, bite the bullet!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #249,575
  • Aug 28, 2010 5:02pm Aug 28, 2010 5:02pm

There are several intricate components to a Butterfly, but the basic rules are: Leg X to A is an impulse move and the retracement leg A to D is a distinct two wave move where leg A to B equals leg C to D (in points).
Unlike the Gartley, the X to A leg of a Butterfly pattern is ALWAYS shorter than the A to D leg. In fact one of the components of a Butterfly is that you calculate the distance in points from X to A and multiply that number by several fibonacci ratios. That number is then used to calculate where the reversal target D should end.
You may notice that ratios of “time” are noted on the chart to the right. That is another component of both Gartley and Butterfly formations that pinpoint turns.
http://tradinglib.com/wp-content/upl...007/07/bf4.gif

For those who want to read up... Quite interesting, I might start to draw little formations on my charts http://tradinglib.com/trading-strate...rfly-reversals

@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #249,576
  • Aug 28, 2010 5:17pm Aug 28, 2010 5:17pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hi Magix

My husband mentioned your post to me earlier, and I thought I'd just pop in after putting the kiddies to bed to say hi, and reply (I had to wade through so much' unhelpful stuff' to find this). Thanks for remembering me, I'd almost forgotten the cable update thread, but nice to see you're still here.

First, I don't post or read threads after this debacle here, which I allowed (yes, I take responsibility for my folly as I could have trusted my own instinct - before anyone pounces on me!) to cost me a lot in May due to missed opportunities and trusting this 'experienced' person more than myself:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3688884&postcount=6048
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3688944&postcount=6049
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3689239&postcount=6051
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3689431&postcount=6052
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3689495&postcount=6053
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3689689&postcount=6059

Reading through the chest-thumping and rather 'rude' posts on the way to your post, I see the potential for newbies who read this thread day in and day out to disregard the 'little' knowledge and instinct they have just like I did in May, to just tag along the tailcoats of those 'experienced' traders trying to 'help' them out of fear of being insulted, only to be ridiculed by the same experienced guys who have got it all worked out, andwho pounce on anyone prepared to talk out of 'instinct' without being able to use all the fancy language and technical terms to back up their analysis.

My husband is an intraday trader, off his mobile phone, while he gets on with his day job so this thread is useful to him apparently, when he manages to sift the wheat from the chaff and filter out the chest-thumping,'d'-swinging posts; wheras it's of no use to me as I aim to view the daily charts of all pairs at the close of the NY session to identify which pair is likely to result in a successful trade for me - very often not taking a trade at all if I can't see a highly probable opportunity.

When I resume posting, it will be over at Stocky Monk's thread where the chaps there are sincere, i.e. no 'd-swinging', no 'I told you so', no looking down on those who get it right 'for the wrong reasons', or who don't get it right at all sometimes, and no looking down on anyone because they can't really explain their analysis; my old 'trusted' analysts i.e. 45 'Condor and Stocky Monk are on that thread, not sure if you post there or indeed AMs (definitely not a 'lady' btw...); but I'm not going to start posting on this cable update thread as I'm in no mood to be talked to rudely all in the name of training - if you're going to correct me or train me, be polite or else keep your skills to yourself, I'll learn somewhere else (and I'm not talking to you Magix).

I'm slowly rebuilding my confidence from what I allowed to happen in May. However, as I ain't got a 'd' to swing, I'll rebuild my confidence quietly in the trenches, then go back posting strong and well on the GU, GJ, EU Analysis thread by Stocky Monk.

One last point to all you newbies who may view this post, the greatest analyst and strategy that can help you to not only grow your account, but to also learn along the way and understand why your trades are successful or otherwise is 'YOU'; there is no Forex god on this thread or any other thread!. No matter how 'experienced' the 'analysts' are on Forex Factory, you can get better than them if you continue to learn rather than just follow calls. You don't have the same account size as many of them, so why take your trading decisions based on someone else's opinion? When you suffer a loss, whose pocket does it come out of? When you make a profit, whose pocket does it go into? Forex isn't rocket science, and there's no Forex instructor out there who's better than your knowledge and understanding of the market, once you've invested the time and effort to learn it yourself.

Good luck all, and I won't check in for replies to this post; so PM me if you want to slap my wrists or otherwise, If I read the first few lines of your reply and don't like it, I'll close it and not read the rest!





Quoting Magix
You should join in more PipChick...

We gotta few gals that post, and fwiw, if some of the other dick swingers got to know that, it might keep the place a little more tidy.

4xStar, AMS, kaspopsicle, IbkA..might be a few others I have missed.
  • #249,577
  • Aug 28, 2010 5:19pm Aug 28, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
haha... nah, he was my mentor for about 5 months and still gives me good pointers every now and then...

He really is a good trader and a nice guy once you get to know him. Not all people are simple you know, some are a bit complex. Like shrek used to say "Cloggs" has layers, like onions... just get through the first couple and you'll see.

Anyways, he doesn't need me to defend him, he can do that pretty well himself!
You are of course entitled to you opinion. I don't see anything funny about belittling, abusing or bullying others though. Some people seem to get a kick out of it being done to others or even themselves however.
  • #249,578
  • Aug 28, 2010 5:26pm Aug 28, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting david777
You are of course entitled to you opinion. I don't see anything funny about belittling, abusing or bullying others though. Some people seem to get a kick out of it being done to others or even themselves however.
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #249,579
  • Edited 5:48pm Aug 28, 2010 5:35pm | Edited 5:48pm
Quoting david777
Sounds like you have been brainwashed by the Dear Leader!
LOL!

So you don't feel like a dog that need a backbone.... (tsss...)
BRAVO my friend!

------------

Gartley, butterfly, crab.....
The real point is:

Market work whit legs, and a healty move stand over 61.8% correction, even 50%.

Most of the time if price stand over 23.6%/38.2 - making some kind of flag,
it will then extend over the last top making an AB=CD or variation of it.

If this support is broken, price will attempt 50/61.8% zone.
As said, an healty move should stay over that level.

Last chance to keep the move in the way is the 78.6%/88.6% zone.
After that its 0 and show terrible weakness of the move and even often reversal.

So, why and how gartley work?!?
Don't all ebook say buy at support and sell at resistance... well....

1-buyers buy and create a leg (XA leg).
2-Sellers get into play and sell until 38.2/50% (bat) or 61.8% (gartley).(AB)
3-Following what said before an healthy move need to stand over 61.8% so buyer buy again (abc pattern).(BC)
4-Sellers getting sqeeze will then sell again at top creating a double top. (CD)
5-Buyers, to save the move and their entry, will then reenter around 78.6% - the support and previous consolidation zone. (D = PRZ - potential reversal zone).

Target for those pattern are simple fibs correction, but they often get to the middle point of the pattern, so around 50%/61.8%.

http://www.harmonictrader.com/gartleybullre.jpg

So you can see that this pattern make you buy exactly a support area, where previous buyers bough.
It not magic, it respect a combination of rules follow buy alot of traders. And this combination is the reason its accurate.

Again, yes pattern can fail.... no one is 100% accurate.
In trading, as I know, you never enter blindly, you wait for confirmation.

This is no rocket science, and really simple to understand.
Its follow market logic that I describe at top.

Hope this help people to understand those kind of pattern.

Good trade all!

EDIT: All info of this approch can be found on harmonictrader.com and I suggest this pdf even for the one that dosen't beleive in it. http://harmonictrader.com/harmonictraderpdfoldapr10.htm
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"Flip that coin!"
  • #249,580
  • Aug 28, 2010 5:49pm Aug 28, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting Scipionz
LOL!

So you don't feel like a dog that need a backbone.... (tsss...)
BRAVO my friend!

------------

Gartley, butterfly, crab.....
The real point is:

Market work whit legs, and a healty move stand over 61.8% correction, even 50%.

Most of the time if price stand over 23.6%/38.2 - making some kind of flag,
it will then extend over the last top making an AB=CD or variation of it.

If this support is broken, price will attempt 50/61.8% zone.
As said, an healty move should stay over that level.

Last chance to keep the move in the way is...



Interesting stuff! Thanks!
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