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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #249,541
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:25am Aug 28, 2010 8:25am
Quoting pawpaw1000
so as the dollar and stocks increase so will the USD pairs?

Investopedia Quote:

we compare the US Dollar Index (USDX), an index that tracks the value of the U.S. dollar against six other major currencies, and the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nasdaq and S&P 500 over a 20-year period,...
Almost, rebalancing is a clearer correlation, we had a solid month of decline in the DOW so the end of the month the large portfolios and ETF's need to add physical shares and indices to maintain their asset allocation model. That means that on the last friday of a declining month shares and indices will be bought heavily to make up for the shortfal, that means that dollars will be sold and shares bought, Dow up, dollar down.
  • #249,542
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:25am Aug 28, 2010 8:25am
I'd like to start off with a Welcome back Pipchick...quit being such a stranger!

DAMMIT!

Anyways...

Focusing on any one time frame can be the demise of trade accounts. You can easily miss the forest through the trees.

Below a chart that works with a little of docs compression, a little of the multi moving average cross and adding the 200EMA support. A little voodoo to the mix...on an H4 timeframe.

Each of the red circles shows that after a negative cross on the moving averages, each time price tried to move above, it was easily rejected and re-engaged a sell cycle. We moved all the way down to the 200EMA for a little support and then, not shown moved down to the daily 200EMA for what seems to be bottom support. This area has not been tested a second go round, but in looking at the rest of the moving averages, we are seeing a bit of an area of consolidation, with price being above the batch....Where do we go? It would seem long.

With a Friday close off bottom into the top side of the day, with price meeting support and quickly bought back, support found on the daily and never retested, I would say that we gotta better then fair chance at moving on back up.

3 Day weekends can do a lot to shatter a play, cripes we could see the next 2 days of sideways action and explode down moving for a second test on the daily...anything can happen, but all indicators on the lower time frames for me seem to indicate a continued long side pattern.

Anyways...

Get a life guys...market is done for the week. Why not go out n check see what you are really working this hard for and enjoy your weekends...you really wanna be trapped reading crap from guys like me? or you wanna turn into somebody so obsessed with market that all we see is price action?

Sheesh...

Have a good weekend all!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,543
  • Edited 8:39am Aug 28, 2010 8:28am | Edited 8:39am
Quoting 4xStar
There can be many interpretations of gartley patterns just like other patterns, candlesticks etc.

Actually there isn't, 1,000's of hours has gone into researching harmonic patterns and countless academic papers have been written on it and only those that meet the true dimensions as spelt out by Bluecirrus are tradeable and profitable, scorpz's patterns are just triangles drawn on a chart and have no bearing on trade setups as Thursday/Friday clearly proved. True harmonic patterns are not open to interpretation and have a succes rate in excess of 80%, just as proper candle patterns, once you start interpreting them and adjusting them, the succes rate will not beat a coin toss.

Whether harmonic patterns and candle stick formations are true reflections of market behaviour or just a self fullfilling prophecy because more then one trader recognises them and trades accordingly is also a subject in a lot of academic research.

A pattern like what scorpz drew on his chart is useless as he is the only trader, bar a few noobs here, looking at that so it would not in a million years have an effect on price, while a proper harmonic pattern is seen by 100's if not 1,000's of traders and collectively they adhere to the pattern and price reacts accordingly, now the question is did the pattern cause the price to move or did the interpretation of the market participants cause the price to move and how could you as a single retail trader take advantage of that.

I know what I use, price moves due to the collective behaviour of participants and once a pattern, whether harmonic or candle stick presents itself in the price I judge the initial reaction of the participants to the pattern and try to ride their coattails. The key is finding the same pattern as others do, so making one up that is open to interpretation would never work, because I would be the only one looking at it.
  • #249,544
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:28am Aug 28, 2010 8:28am
Quoting 4xStar
Once again we agree to disagree....
This is the best post I have seen in the last 24 hrs!
  • #249,545
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:30am Aug 28, 2010 8:30am
Quoting cloggie
Almost, rebalancing is a clearer correlation, we had a solid month of decline in the DOW so the end of the month the large portfolios and ETF's need to add physical shares and indices to maintain their asset allocation model. That means that on the last friday of a declining month shares and indices will be bought heavily to make up for the shortfal, that means that dollars will be sold and shares bought, Dow up, dollar down.
Alright, I understand that but why does Investopedia say that stocks up, dollar up? Or is that just the norm when foreign investors invest in USA which means they are actually buying dollars?

Sorry for the re-asking but I think If I can understand this, it would really help my trading. I follow USDINX and do look for correlation. But haven't been follow the Dow. Which i now realise I should.
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #249,546
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:33am Aug 28, 2010 8:33am
Quoting cloggie
Actually there isn't, 1,000's of hours has gone into researching harmonic patterns and countless academic papers have been written on it and only those that meet the true dimensions as spelt out by Bluecirrus are tradeable and profitable, scorpz's patterns are just triangles drawn on a chart and have no bearing on trade setups as Thursday/Friday clearly proved. True harmonic patterns are not open to interpretation and have a succes rate in excess of 80%, just as proper candle patterns, once you start interpreting them and adjusting them, the succes...
Great, now that puts me in a corner to do better research on my candle formations! I was just doing it "kinda", reckon I need to go back to studying. Thanks cloggs...

Understand what you wanna say 4x, but must agree with cloggy when it comes to techinical analyses and technical patterns like these...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #249,547
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:34am Aug 28, 2010 8:34am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Alright, I understand that but why does Investopedia say that stocks up, dollar up? Or is that just the norm when foreign investors invest in USA which means they are actually buying dollars?

Sorry for the re-asking but I think If I can understand this, it would really help my trading. I follow USDINX and do look for correlation. But haven't been follow the Dow. Which i now realise I should.

Following the DOW during rebalancing is the way to go because the large funds invest in the DOW, during normal trading hours, following es shows a better correlation once price is affected by it.
  • #249,548
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:40am Aug 28, 2010 8:40am
Quoting Magix
I'd like to start off with a Welcome back Pipchick...quit being such a stranger!

DAMMIT!

Anyways...

Focusing on any one time frame can be the demise of trade accounts....
Hi Magix
I just sit here quietly and watch. (usually..lol)
  • #249,549
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:40am Aug 28, 2010 8:40am
Quoting cloggie
Actually there isn't, 1,000's of hours has gone into researching harmonic patterns and countless academic papers have been written on it and only those that meet the true dimensions as spelt out by Bluecirrus are tradeable and profitable, scorpz's patterns are just triangles drawn on a chart and have no bearing on trade setups as Thursday/Friday clearly proved. True harmonic patterns are not open to interpretation and have a succes rate in excess of 80%,....
Arrrghhh!!! Ok, so maybe he is still LEARNING. We all are. Gartleys take years to master, kudos to scip that he is at least trying.

End.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #249,550
  • Aug 28, 2010 8:41am Aug 28, 2010 8:41am
Quoting PipChick
This is the best post I have seen in the last 24 hrs!
Thank you
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #249,551
  • Edited 8:52am Aug 28, 2010 8:41am | Edited 8:52am
Quoting 4xStar
Arrrghhh!!! Ok, so maybe he is still LEARNING. We all are. Gartleys take years to master, kudos to scip that he is at least trying.

End.

But do you understand what I am trying to say, you need a proper pattern that is recognised by others and has the proper dimensions for it to work? A made up pattern on a retail traders screen is useless because none of the other market participants are looking at it.

Look back over the last month and you can see where Wormy and I discuss a candle pattern forming and catch over 400 pips trading them, because we saw the market's reaction to the formation and followed the other participants. That is what trading is really about, what is the behaviour of the other participants, how can you "see" what they are doing and how can you follow the herd.

Now we are getting to what moves price, the pshycological behaviour of the participants. Once a pattern occurs and its PA is confirmed, you just follow the behaviour of the others and are on to some "easy" money.

Magix's 200 ema is a prime example, Wormy's and mine patterns is another one, Bluecirrus's harmonic trading patterns is another one. They are all tools in the toolbox you can use to visualise the market participant's behaviour and the resultant PA.

You can't give a guy kudos for drawing a triangle on a chart, it will open the floodgates here. They must be valid and well researched or else they are useless.

I know you try hard to keep the peace here and I applaud your effort, but you can't ignore the fact that what he was doing has no bearing on price behaviour.
  • #249,552
  • Edited 7:06pm Aug 28, 2010 8:46am | Edited 7:06pm
Quoting PipChick
Hi Magix
I just sit here quietly and watch. (usually..lol)
You should join in more PipChick...

We gotta few gals that post, and fwiw, if some of the other dick swingers got to know that, it might keep the place a little more tidy.

4xStar, kaspopsicle, IbkA..might be a few others I have missed.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,553
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:02am Aug 28, 2010 9:02am
Quoting cloggie
But do you understand what I am trying to say, you need a proper pattern that is recognised by others and has the proper dimensions for it to work? A made up pattern on a retail traders screen is useless because none of the other market participants are looking at it.

Look back over the last month and you can see where Wormy and I discuss a candle pattern forming and catch over 400 pips trading them, because we saw the market's reaction to the formation and followed the other participants. That is what trading is really about, what is the behaviour...
Do you know what the post number is of the triangle? I wanted to see it. Just curious.
  • #249,554
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:03am Aug 28, 2010 9:03am
Quoting cloggie
You can't give a guy kudos for drawing a triangle on a chart, it will open the floodgates here.
Buwahahahahahahahah....

Theres a lotta traders here Clogs, some new, some old, some trade slow, some trade fast, some trade half assed......

Everybody needs to have a voice, I just think some need to spend more time on their dd, and less time patting themselves on the back...

And some days, I prolly in that group of the self back patters.

Enjoy your weekend brother!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,555
  • Edited 9:26am Aug 28, 2010 9:07am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting Magix
Buwahahahahahahahah....

Theres a lotta traders here Clogs, some new, some old, some trade slow, some trade fast, some trade half assed......

Everybody needs to have a voice, I just think some need to spend more time on their dd, and less time patting themselves on the back...

And some days, I prolly in that group of the self back patters.

Enjoy your weekend brother!

That's why lots of you guys have buggered of and started your own threads, the barrage of noobs here screaming and shouting can get to you over time. So far I am managing and am still enjoying it, starting one's own thread is time consuming. I just come down like a ton of brick on anyone spouting rubbish and like I said before if you can't handle the critisism then print out your little chart and bluetack it to the wall and you are safe from anyone critisising it. If guys can't handle me then they would not survive for more then a day on a tradingfloor.

I love their comebacks: "keep your big nose out of it", well debate with facts, like I do, offer proper proof and research and I will keep my nose out of it, spout rubbish and you open yourself up for my critisism. Don't like it? Don't let the door hit you in the @rse on the way out.

Arguing with me is like wrestling a pig in mud, in the end you come to realise that the pig enjoys it.

I especially like this one:

Quoting Scipionz
As I wonder why he need to convince other to feel he's right about something....
Maby insecurity from a child traumatism...LOL!

Let him be....
Well, where is his proof? Just yelling and screaming at someone who disagrees with you and can back it up shows a lot of insecurity. Oh and work on your grammar and spelling please.

Enjoy your weekend Magix, see you Tuesday. Two more weeks of this rubbish and normal trading resumes.
  • #249,556
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:47am Aug 28, 2010 9:47am
Quoting Magix
You should join in more PipChick...

We gotta few gals that post, and fwiw, if some of the other dick swingers got to know that, it might keep the place a little more tidy.

4xStar, AMS, kaspopsicle, IbkA..might be a few others I have missed.
ams is not female
  • #249,557
  • Aug 28, 2010 11:20am Aug 28, 2010 11:20am
why dont we call the day off..
market are close...
let just try to relax for this 2 day..
take our family and girlfriend out...
like magix said...
get a life...
Revesal Trader
  • #249,558
  • Aug 28, 2010 11:25am Aug 28, 2010 11:25am
Quoting 4xStar
Arrrghhh!!! Ok, so maybe he is still LEARNING. We all are. Gartleys take years to master, kudos to scip that he is at least trying.

End.
You are vey kind Star!

Just forget about (him) all this my friend.
No more time to lose on the subject, let's trade instead!

I manage more then 90% win ratio, so gartley are doing the job.
No need for nuclear resherch, only need to try it long enough to make yourself you own idea about it!

Take care bud!
"Flip that coin!"
  • #249,559
  • Aug 28, 2010 12:28pm Aug 28, 2010 12:28pm
gartleys, pfff beyond me.

i had an indicator but it always repainted. what crap.
Enter Signature
  • #249,560
  • Aug 28, 2010 12:29pm Aug 28, 2010 12:29pm
exactly, lets get back to trading next week guys.
Enter Signature
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