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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #249,481
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:03pm Aug 27, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting cloggie
Rebalancing is just about the easiest way to make money on a freaky Friday. There are lots more recurring calendar items that happen in the market that can be traded just as simply.

Just know when the big boys do their scheduled buying, from dividends, to rebalancing, to EU payments, to BIS schedules, to Debt auctions, they are all publicly available and easy as pie to trade.
Cloggie, would you be able to point me to somewhere online I can find out these kind of things? I was unaware of "rebalancing" and for some reason chose to be utterly ignorant of your warning about it, so remained in my trade when it would have been more profitable to close it, trade the rebalance, and then possibly re-establish the original position. Luckily my GU trade was sufficiently high that I didn't suffer any mental distress, but not so with my EU short which briefly gave me the flamin' irrits. Thankfully both appear to still be technically sound on the TF I am trading, but even so, this was not especially artful trading on my account.
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #249,482
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:08pm Aug 27, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting fxoxford
you learn from yourself, i don't think to many people every build a system base on some one else, they might of help you on certain thing but only you can make yourself a better trader
True, but you still need education in order to build your system base!
  • #249,483
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:11pm Aug 27, 2010 2:11pm
Hey magix a point you touched on shortly after rollover on thursday as far as the rollover price , today as in most days that is the line in the sand , chart also shows each session and how many pips the range was each session , the spike highs actually were going to my weekly open which will be different than most as my charts start before the brokers are open so todays open was kinda a double whammy, purple is tokyo which overlaps chinas (red candles) which overlaps frankie (orange) which overlaps london (green) which overlaps new york (turquiose) . White candles technically no session open also the time with least liqudity and when with lousy fills and spikes everyone blames their broker for stp hunting . Any how just why I treat the rollover price as the line in the sand each day and the weekly open as the line in the sand for the week etc right on down the line to the montly and quarterly . Everyone have a great week-end cheers.
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  • #249,484
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:11pm Aug 27, 2010 2:11pm
Brian,

Got a tee time this afternoon with my son. He's in his
last week before beginning year two of med school.

We'll try not to hit the 'big ball' before the little ball
and watch out for digger's pheasants and Magix's
errant helicopter drivers.

You playing this weekend?

Dr. D.
  • #249,485
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:11pm Aug 27, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting autopips
Cloggie, would you be able to point me to somewhere online I can find out these kind of things?...

It is one of those things that is just ingrained in the market over time. Most portfolios and funds need rebalancing at the end of the month to keep to their allocation of assets within the portfolio. This and last month was a great example as the DOW had moved so much in a single direction over the month to anticipate a good rebalancing effect in currencies. Keeping an eye on the DOW, CHF, USD, GBP and EUR will give you a very good and obvious indication of where each currency is going to go. It really is just correlation trading, but a bit simpler as the only influence is the DOW itself.

So if you have a steady increase of the DOW during the month you can expect the big boys to sell of shares and indices to bring the ratio down in their portfolio and vice versa, the currencies will move either fully correlated or uncorrelated depending on which one you are tracking. If you just talk about the dollar as it is the pair in both fibre and cable a rebalancing to the upside, as today would see a corresponding drop in dollar and a correlated increase in both fibre and cable.

Most portfolios start thier rebalancing at 1500 GMT to catch the last 30 of the LSE and the rest for the NYSE. That is just a time that was historically used.
  • #249,486
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:14pm Aug 27, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Brian,

Got a tee time this afternoon with my son. He's in his
last week before beginning year two of med school.

We'll try not to hit the 'big ball' before the little ball
and watch out for digger's pheasants and Magix's
errant helicopter drivers.

You playing this weekend?

Dr. D.
IF your watching for anything doc...make sure the 2 best balls you hit all day aren't the ones when you step on a rake in the sand traps!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,487
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:16pm Aug 27, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting fxoxford
you learn from yourself, i don't think to many people every build a system base on some one else, they might of help you on certain thing but only you can make yourself a better trader
I agree with you from the standpoint of trade setup - it is a personal thing, and everyone needs to find a system which works for them. I have found from my own personal experience that my biggest weaknesses as a trader come from myself - greed, fear, and my emotions regarding profit and loss. I believe my recent consistency in profitability is a result of working to contain those weaknesses much more than any change in my analysis or general style of trading.

Where I don't agree with you is in those aspects of trading that are purely factual. These things have to be learned. For the first few months of my trading career, for example, I was completely unaware of the news calendar. Trading without knowing about this is like driving whilst reading a book - you can get by, but it's unnecessarily difficult. Today I learned about rebalancing. There are a ton of other purely factual things I don't know about, and probably should not be trading without knowing, but I am getting by, and will gradually pick up from those experienced folk who kindly take their time to post here, and bit by bit I will improve as a trader.
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #249,488
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:19pm Aug 27, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting digger1
Hey magix a point you touched on shortly after rollover on thursday as far as the rollover price , today as in most days that is the line in the sand , chart also shows each session and how many pips the range was each session , the spike highs actually were going to my weekly open which will be different than most as my charts start before the brokers are open so todays open was kinda a double whammy, purple is tokyo which overlaps chinas (red candles) which overlaps frankie (orange) which overlaps london (green) which overlaps new york (turquiose)...
Definite resistance at the daily pivot, but unless we get an all out mass exodus for longs coming into the end of week, we are going to close off bottom in the top half of the day....

Not that I am saying anybody should be playing long, but I am not so sure I would be holding a short into the weekend.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,489
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:19pm Aug 27, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting cloggie
It is one of those things that is just ingrained in the market over time.
Great, so this is one of those things you just have to learn. That's what I read this forum for. I understand the rebalancing process now, makes perfect sense. Still leaves me reliant on you and others to post a warning about anything which is likely to result in large scale buying or selling outside of the normal news calendar. Next time I will pay attention.
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #249,490
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:22pm Aug 27, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Brian,

Got a tee time this afternoon with my son. He's in his
last week before beginning year two of med school.

We'll try not to hit the 'big ball' before the little ball
and watch out for digger's pheasants and Magix's
errant helicopter drivers.

You playing this weekend?

Dr. D.
But of course I will be on the course this weekend. Tomorrow midday tee for the President's Cup. I rate my changes on winning it at about zilch, but I will have fun having a hack at it

Enjoy your day and hope we get a birdie to highlight the round
  • #249,491
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:22pm Aug 27, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting autopips
Great, so this is one of those things you just have to learn. That's what I read this forum for. I understand the rebalancing process now, makes perfect sense. Still leaves me reliant on you and others to post a warning about anything which is likely to result in large scale buying or selling outside of the normal news calendar. Next time I will pay attention.

There are so many things that are not in the calendar, such as UK payments to the EU, that will drive EG on the last day of the month at 1100, then there are dividend payments, BIS settlements, the obvious footprints of Central banks, especially the SNB, export hedging at months end and the list goes on. Then there are the simple things in trading cable such as the Franky Fake, the London Break, the NY break, the NY fill etc.
  • #249,492
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:25pm Aug 27, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting Magix
IF your watching for anything doc...make sure the 2 best balls you hit all day aren't the ones when you step on a rake in the sand traps!
  • #249,493
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:27pm Aug 27, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting Magix
Definite resistance at the daily pivot, but unless we get an all out mass exodus for longs coming into the end of week, we are going to close off bottom in the top half of the day....

Not that I am saying anybody should be playing long, but I am not so sure I would be holding a short into the weekend.
Well had the daily L4 yesterdays low and a weekly low in about the same area , defenitly loaded longs there after the ride down , still holding a few but took most profit at the opens , be plenty of areas to get back in if it decides to go that way lol
  • #249,494
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:30pm Aug 27, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting digger1
Well had the daily L4 yesterdays low and a weekly low in about the same area , defenitly loaded longs there after the ride down , still holding a few but took most profit at the opens , be plenty of areas to get back in if it decides to go that way lol
Holding a 6 pack here myself...figured we closed London in a positive lite..took a few sheckles off bottom, why the eff not?

Worst case, we get that massive exodus, and I get stopped out even on a walk into weekend close...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,495
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:36pm Aug 27, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting cloggie
There are so many things that are not in the calendar, such as UK payments to the EU, that will drive EG on the last day of the month at 1100, then there are dividend payments, BIS settlements, the obvious footprints of Central banks, especially the SNB, export hedging at months end and the list goes on. Then there are the simple things in trading cable such as the Franky Fake, the London Break, the NY break, the NY fill etc.
The phases of cables trading day I already picked up from earlier lurking sessions, ditto the UK/EU payments. Will Google the rest.
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #249,496
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:36pm Aug 27, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting cloggie
Then there are the simple things in trading cable such as the Franky Fake, the London Break, the NY break, the NY fill etc.
Sounds like a set of dance moves, well I suppose they are in a way lol. Looking forward to knocking out some shapes next month (found this month very difficult PA to read).
  • #249,497
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:38pm Aug 27, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting cloggie
It is one of those things that is just ingrained in the market over time. Most portfolios and funds need rebalancing at the end of the month to keep to their allocation of assets within the portfolio. This and last month was a great example as the DOW had moved so much in a single direction over the month to anticipate a good rebalancing effect in currencies. Keeping an eye on the DOW, CHF, USD, GBP and EUR will give you a very good and obvious indication of where each currency is going to go. It really is just correlation trading, but a bit simpler...
Thank you for this beautifully explained info
  • #249,498
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:39pm Aug 27, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting autopips
The phases of cables trading day I already picked up from earlier lurking sessions, ditto the UK/EU payments. Will Google the rest.

Once these things happen they become self fulfilling, look at the DOW now and see the correlation with the Dollar. We are having a 200 point day on the DOW, purely driven by others jumping on the band wagon. Banks do that with overnight currency orders, say they get a 2 yard order, they just tag on a couple of 100 of their own and they are on to a guaranteed winner because the size of the order will set the hot potato principle in motion and they just ride the coattails, that's why the LO is such a big thing.
  • #249,499
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:40pm Aug 27, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting digger1
Hey magix a point you touched on shortly after rollover on thursday as far as the rollover price , today as in most days that is the line in the sand
That chart was just fascinating. Each center pushing and pulling her to fill their range, and then kindly leaving her where they found her before passing it on. Priceless. How often does it behave like this? Don't tell me all the time!
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #249,500
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:44pm Aug 27, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting Magix
IF your watching for anything doc...make sure the 2 best balls you hit all day aren't the ones when you step on a rake in the sand traps!

Ouch! Brings a 'scramble' and a 'smile' to a new level of pain.

We also say if you hit a maintenance working raking the traps
you're obligated to take his place.

I'll be exercising all my sphincter muscles as they pucker up
over every 3 ft putt.

Dr. D.
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