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  • #1,541
  • Aug 27, 2010 2:17pm Aug 27, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
Didn't your friend, Joe, advise against trading both directions? Easy to infer from his only selling.
If I recall correctly, we're talking about two different approaches to trading. Unlike Graeme, "Joe" is not a position trader. He only trades the short side and is more focused on short-term profits by utilizing extreme position stacking. Graeme, on the other hand, will trade and stack both directions because his goal is to get in early on a potential long-term trend change and, thus, will take any setup that meets his entry criteria knowing most of his entries will be stopped out at or around B.E. Over the course of this thread, Graeme has shared both approaches with us and has been very clear that one approach is his and the other is "Joe's."

Graeme, please feel free to correct me if I've misrepresented the facts.

Kevin
  • #1,542
  • Aug 27, 2010 4:25pm Aug 27, 2010 4:25pm
Hello,
Here are 2 yearly charts. True they aren't different from 5 min. ones, with some flying buddha's failing but the succeeding ones growing into huge legs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX EUR_USD (27-AUG-10).png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_JPY (27-AUG-10).png Size: 13 KB
Patience is magic
  • #1,543
  • Aug 27, 2010 5:19pm Aug 27, 2010 5:19pm
So what about this? Graeme or others.

If one were trading this top down timeline approach what would one do when they see an opportunity on daily/intra-day that is not quite there on the weekly?

The reason I ask is that it appears u/j is forming a weekly pin bar. We won't know until the end of next week. But Daily is showing a bullish outside bar and H4 is showing a flying buddha (although not a great one, big wick). So those little voices in my head are saying "go long now before you miss the opportunity". Or at least I am starting to get that feeling a bit. Trading weekly requires a heck of a lot of discipline to see the bar forming but having to wait a week for confirmation. All the time you are watching big moves of lost opportunity on Dailies.
  • #1,544
  • Edited 7:10pm Aug 27, 2010 5:40pm | Edited 7:10pm
To those who might find doubt or displeasure with the enclosed content of this thread, I am here to state and remind you that this is indeed a private thread and open only to those who wish to learn and participate. I will be so bold to speak on every learner's behalf and say to you "We do indeed accept your apology".
  • #1,545
  • Aug 27, 2010 5:43pm Aug 27, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting pip_daddy
So what about this? Graeme or others.

If one were trading this top down timeline approach what would one do when they see an opportunity on daily/intra-day that is not quite there on the weekly?

The reason I ask is that it appears u/j is forming a weekly pin bar. We won't know until the end of next week. But Daily is showing a bullish outside bar and H4 is showing a flying buddha (although not a great one, big wick). So those little voices in my head are saying "go long now before you miss the opportunity". Or at least I am starting to get...
Good morning, pip_daddy and all

Thank you for the question.

A very good question that is also on many other readers thoughts. I will address this question in great detail tonight as it is part of planned flow.

In regards to fundamentals, do you believe that fundamental data effects the movement of the markets or would you say that the fundamental data is already included in the movement of price?

Yes, a good news can trigger a sharp price fluctuation as soon as it is broadcasted but how long does a sharp price fluctuation last?

To answer myself, the amount of time that particular news effects the movement of the whole market is more or less a dot in infinite space and time.

I have invested alot of money into updates of fundamental news release, economic data and personal economic alert reports from reknowned economists.

Believe me when I say that all the vast information (which sometimes is too technical to fully understand to most readers) they provide is being 'said' by the market already.

There is a reknowned economist whom is affiliated closely with a very large international finance management who sends her personal insights on a monthly basis to selected contacts. I appreciate her efforts and without any disrespect on her efforts, she is just reiterating what market is showing in terms and expressions synthesized by so called qualified individuals (humans) of the industry. Market is above and beyond all that.

I applaud at successful news traders but hope they spend some time to visit their roots and analysis their success. It isnt just the 'great news' that propels their positions in growth but the fact that they participate into the market through a low-risk entry and anticipate a higher growth on hopeful potential opportunity that is arising. That is how they are successful (and it is similar ideology to myself as to participate in a low risk opportunity for a greater reward) but whether they truly know how/why they are successful might not be unknowingly correct or not.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,546
  • Aug 27, 2010 6:40pm Aug 27, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting Warburg
...And that is the ability to sense these movements prior to them occurring. ....
Hello Warburg

Does that mean you have to make all these cognitions of 95% and switch completely early enough?

If I read broadsheet economic newspapers and some well-known authors describes e.g. EURUSD are getting stronger,... concerning this and that.... I can bet with my friends every time that the opposite event will be turn up. In other words to educate the public incorrect is one aspect which big investment arrange cleverly.

Kindest regards
FXcube
Attached Images
  • #1,547
  • Edited 7:35pm Aug 27, 2010 7:20pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting Forexcube
Hello Warburg

Does that mean you have to make all these kognitions of 95% and switch completely early enough?

If I read economic newspapers and some well-known authors describes e.g. EURUSD are getting stronger,... concerning this and that.... I can bet with my friends every time that the opposite will be true. In other words to educate the public incorrect is one aspect which big investment arrange cleverly.

Kindest regards
FXcube
Good morning, fxcube

If I may add, member: warburg already knows what Im going to explain today in detail which is surprising. And yes, it is very possible to anticipate such movements in advance.

Perhaps, and only my suggestion, the news release/economic data released by government is more or less just another indicator. And we all know indicators lag.

When government say usd is weakening. It is not just doom and gloom for US as there are also benefits of weakening usd dollar. It is the weight of the benefit that moves the price.

Or it could all be a ploy from the government but there is quiet a possibility that a purposeful false annoucement with malice intent can also backfire horribly causing a critical dent. Im sure they have some sort of risk control to apply when things turn sour but we will never know for certain. The market watches all this happen below its feet.

Government, traders, banks they are all just part of the plan and each individual body of trading traits that are more or less ripples in the ocean of everlasting motion.

Do you know what makes up eur/usd? Just on the simple sides and not including anything on micro terms or any inter-related exchanges.

Companies buying/selling large stock in america/uk
Travellers going from eur to usd or vice versa
Internet shoppers buying goods from america/uk
Corporations taking over interest in america/uk

and us, retail traders.

A vast space of struggle that are inter-twined on various levels with each individual nodes all with its own and separate agenda. It is a mind-boggling unstoppable neutral force that a single entity cannot control.

Just going out for the day.

Enjoy life and cherish it everday.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #1,548
  • Edited 8:18pm Aug 27, 2010 7:58pm | Edited 8:18pm
Be aware that often market is uncontrollable and is governed by the biggest market player!

Another example see chart, please.

So it make no sense double, triple, quadruple or multiply your account wins and let it further run.

Take out your wins as soon as possible!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, Daily.jpg Size: 208 KB
Attached Image
  • #1,549
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:24pm Aug 27, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting Forexcube
Be aware that often market is uncontrollable and is governed by the biggest market player!

Another example see chart, please.

So it make no sense double, triple, quadruple or multiply your account wins and let it further run.

Take out your wins as soon as possible!

Other example:

Please see trading as a whole. Last night, Graeme put the ending touch and i guess lot of people view shifted to that part. As a whole, i guess below

1) Money Management
2) Patterns (Based on mthly/weekly charts patterns etc)
3) Stacking of orders in smaller timeframes
4) Long term, mid term and mini diversification (Positions Mgt)

As to your 'Take out your wins as soon as possible!', i am sure we all can find a good monthly trend chart and debunk your theory that we shouldn't take out all the winnings first.
  • #1,550
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:28pm Aug 27, 2010 8:28pm
Hi Everyone,
Just wanted to share something with you. Some platforms allow multiple charts on one screen. This may seem like an obvious statement to some, but others were asking whether Graeme has several monitors to keep track of different currency. I have recently changed from this broker because it did not allow hedging but still use there charts for this reason. You can have same currency with different time frame or several currency's on one time frame. The broker is GFT. I have attached a screen shot. Hope this helps someone.
Kind Regards,
Ben.
P.S. Thanks for recent posts Graeme its all beginning to make sense.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xml multi screens.xml   274 KB | 825 downloads
  • #1,551
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:34pm Aug 27, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting songbo
Please see trading as a whole. Last night, Graeme put the ending touch and i guess lot of people view shifted to that part. As a whole, i guess below

1) Money Management
2) Patterns (Based on mthly/weekly charts patterns etc)
3) Stacking of orders in smaller timeframes
4) Long term, mid term and mini diversification (Positions Mgt)

As to your 'Take out your wins as soon as possible!', i am sure we all can find a good monthly trend chart and debunk your theory that we shouldn't take out all the winnings first.
All things relative there are people who find 'investing' a waste of time and there are those who cannot make the week by week gains that the earlier seem to thrive on. Is there any right or wrong way? Of course not. I for one like to take the best of boths side by taking some profits to help with minimum term growth whilst leaving some portions to do there business for as long as they can.

In the end it comes down to the individuals and there tolerance levels. I have seen alot over the past 5 years and there are some successful ways of trading that I cannot adapt to my personal circumstances and tolerances.

RT
  • #1,552
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:36pm Aug 27, 2010 8:36pm
Quoting Forexcube
Be aware that often market is uncontrollable and is governed by the biggest market player!

Another example see chart, please.

So it make no sense double, triple, quadruple or multiply your account wins and let it further run.

Take out your wins as soon as possible!
Valid Point Forex Cube,
However, if you re read the thread you will see that Graeme goes long and short. So looking at your chart there is a nice flying buddah 8 days prior to the big drop. Graeme would be going short then, he would have also seen it as a danger sign and maybe closed out some of his long positions.
So with that in mind please explain why that chart would pose a problem to any of us?
Look forward to your response,
Regards,
Ben
  • #1,553
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:47pm Aug 27, 2010 8:47pm
Now look at the monthly chart, please.

I say this is big investment p*ss-take!,...independent if you have made a lot of money with this extreme eruption and freelance if you have read the chart signals in a right way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY, monthly.jpg Size: 184 KB
  • #1,554
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:56pm Aug 27, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting leggo
Valid Point Forex Cube,
However, if you re read the thread you will see that Graeme goes long and short. So looking at your chart there is a nice flying buddah 8 days prior to the big drop. Graeme would be going short then, he would have also seen it as a danger sign and maybe closed out some of his long positions.
So with that in mind please explain why that chart would pose a problem to any of us?
Look forward to your response,
Regards,
Ben

Sorry but you can many events explain in hindsight. For other traders it could read as a classical range bound option and now the bottom has reached, and the next could be going up again...and then between 2 or 4 hours the market has extremely jiggled. Do you tell me that an indicator or a price action could forecast this tremendous swing? Really?
  • #1,555
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:57pm Aug 27, 2010 8:57pm
Quoting Forexcube
Now look at the monthly chart, please.

I say this is big investment p*ss-take!,...independent if you have made a lot of money with this extreme eruption and freelance if you have read the chart signals in a right way.
ForexCube,
Once again a valid point, especially if you are not fluid, if you have a bullish bias and cannot be wrong(most traders). However the point I made before still stands. Please explain how this would pose a problem to the methods laid out in this thread.(Please answer before posting your MONTHLY chart).
Regards,
Ben
  • #1,556
  • Aug 27, 2010 8:59pm Aug 27, 2010 8:59pm
Do all understand me in a right way, please.

I like Graeme's work extraordinary, but it is a difference if you explain something in hinsight or you make "economic predictions".
  • #1,557
  • Aug 27, 2010 9:24pm Aug 27, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting Forexcube
Now look at the monthly chart, please.

I say this is big investment p*ss-take!,...independent if you have made a lot of money with this extreme eruption and freelance if you have read the chart signals in a right way.
LOL, now that is funny!
  • #1,558
  • Edited 9:44pm Aug 27, 2010 9:25pm | Edited 9:44pm
The long GJ was for those aggressively into the carry trade, LOL. Infinite yield, etc.

Just the humour here: not disputing the thread. Haven't had several weeks to read it.
  • #1,559
  • Aug 27, 2010 9:29pm Aug 27, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting Forexcube
Do all understand me in a right way, please.

I like Graeme's work extraordinary, but it is a difference if you explain something in hinsight or you make "economic predictions".
Hi Forex Cube,
Like I said you have a valid point. I just dont think you have thought it through. Your first chart outlines everything that is good about Graeme's methods. It shows a screaming flying buddah, the importance of diversification and the need to be bias free and enter both buy and sell. In fact Graeme could have posted that chart himself.
I have no problems with objective discussions that's what democracy is all about. But please put a bit more thought into your arguments before you make such bold statements such as investment "pxxs take"
No method is bulletproof, what works well in Graeme's life may not work in mine. What works in your world may not work in Graeme's.
If you post a better example and put your thoughts in a more polite manner you may find a better reception on this forum.
Regards,
Ben
  • #1,560
  • Aug 27, 2010 10:19pm Aug 27, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Forexcube
Sorry but you can many events explain in hindsight. For other traders it could read as a classical range bound option and now the bottom has reached, and the next could be going up again...and then between 2 or 4 hours the market has extremely jiggled. Do you tell me that an indicator or a price action could forecast this tremendous swing? Really?
I totally agree FXcube. That is the very reason you need to be in the trade longer. For instance in the monthly chart you have shown, if I were building short positions from the FB three candles ago, I will be collecting the profit.

As for the earlier long positions, sure they would have died out in BE.

End of the day you are still making money in spite of this sudden bursts.
Does this make sense?

Thanks
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
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