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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #249,001
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:18am Aug 26, 2010 10:18am
Quoting ams
hey amgix,

I am still trying to figure the balancing books business, needless to say you are champion in it

Where do these boys need to be to balance their books for today.. I reckon 54600 but you are the expert..

ta
ams
Check the area on your chart where NY session hasn't had a chance to short into.

Check the chart below, we have bought back to clear the longs, now time for the shorts to be cleared. Where it goes from there, or if they clear, who knows...I can still see one more possible test of the daily before we launch, but would prefer to play the moves instead of speculating.

Heres the chart, check the blue boxes to see where NY hasn't cleared the shorts yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: boox.jpg Size: 110 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249,002
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:18am Aug 26, 2010 10:18am
LOL, funny!

Quoting Derwood
Pips Stunner,

Your holy grail-ness, where have you been hiding since your Aug 19th post at 5:02 EST/10:02 BST

You told us all to go long and that we were quote "dumb asses" to be short.

That was at 1.5640.

You forgot to suggest that we might want to have at least a 275-300 pip stop loss in order to follow your stellar advice.

Since you have fuzzed out your account balance, i'm guessing you did follow your own advice.

I did not. So my account has not been "Pips Stunned"
"Flip that coin!"
  • #249,003
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:26am Aug 26, 2010 10:26am
Quoting Scipionz
LOL, funny!
eerr yea trade off a four hour chart which his must have been upside down at the time believe the stp was at 1.5380 , ah whats a few hundred pips, stunning perhaps lol
  • #249,004
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:27am Aug 26, 2010 10:27am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Cheers Magix...
Before we progress in any direction I like to see a retest of 546xx to be confident of where we are going so we both are thinking on the same lines.
It could be that by the time daily is tested 546xx hased establish itself as daily, 546xx is only only 30 odd pips away from daily anyways.


ta
ams

Quoting Magix
Check the area on your chart where NY session hasn't had a chance to short into.

Check the chart below, we have bought back to clear the longs, now time for the shorts to be cleared. Where it goes from there, or if they clear, who knows...I can still see one more possible test of the daily before we launch, but would prefer to play the moves instead of speculating.

Heres the chart, check the blue boxes to see where NY hasn't cleared the shorts yet.
  • #249,005
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:29am Aug 26, 2010 10:29am
Yep, he got pip stunned by that nearly 300 pip draw down after his long call on Aug 19th around 1.5640

Quoting digger1
hmmm , looks a bit shy of what it was before , reckon you must of made a withdrawl
  • #249,006
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:30am Aug 26, 2010 10:30am
Quoting pips stunner
my (10th) 100 dollar account continued
Errmmm...

Wish you well...

Regards
Attached Image
  • #249,007
  • Aug 26, 2010 10:33am Aug 26, 2010 10:33am
Quoting TauTrader
Errmmm...

Wish you well...

Regards
all ritey my turn settleing back down to your area lol
  • #249,008
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:00am Aug 26, 2010 11:00am
Hi Everyone:

For those that trade Harmonic (Gartley type) patterns, a "Bearish Bat" has formed on Cable. This "W" pattern requires a middle retrace level of 38% to 50% and a final retrace level of 88.6% (155.90 area).

This pattern started with the August 23rd 2:00 A.M (New York time) bar and completed about 75 minutes ago. (Can be seen on hourly charts..)

The target is a re-test of the lows at the 153.70 area.

There was also a test of an hourly downtrend line at this same level(155.90), and, for those who use oscillators, there is fairly strong bearish divergence forming.

Good Luck!....Hope it helps!
  • #249,009
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:05am Aug 26, 2010 11:05am
Quoting bbakker
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post3977930

Just shy. I will leave it in my Trading Journal so that I can also see all the missed trades for future analysis to see if I tighten my zones too much.

I am still of the firm believe through my analysis that we will hit 1.5494 which would have been my 1st TP and maybe even get back down to the 1.5375 level, but checking my h4 again 1.54 will be a hard nut to crack. I have my demand zone at 1.5399-1.5387, a good place to take some profits if you are short. BTW, I always...
Looks like it got filled this time round looking at my iPhone4 Forex app.

I personally have to create orders and without having a MT4 feed at work, there is not a lot I can do at work once I have placed the order. I can't fiddle with it, I can't make changes to it. I planned the trade and now hopefully the trade will go to plan. This is actually a positive thing as in the past I have often made changes during the actual trade and so therefore I was not sticking to any plan. Not having access to my trading account at work means that I cannot do this anymore and this is quite a refreshing change for me.

Still have to hit TP1 @1.5494, so I shouldn't start counting chickens and looking at my crappy iPhone Forex charting app (Easy Forex), 1.5512 (London/NY Lo) needs to be broken 1st!

My TP2 target of 1.5378 is quite aggressive and I will change that when I get home to 1.5410, but that is the only change I will be making as I didn't properly analyse my TP2 this morning. TP3 will be a trailing stop as always. I am out tonight so I won't be back until midnight and can't make my change to TP2 until then anway.

It might even go back up again not having reached my TP1 and hit my SL. It is out of my hands now, but with my automatic TPs and SL, I can either lose 1% or make a minimum of 3:1 and maybe even better if it does go to TP2 and further.

To be honest, I don't know what this hippo is going to do, but I might be pleasantly surprised.

Good luck everyone and I won't be back for a while. Spending time on here is not conducive to getting the final touches on my trading plan done!
  • #249,010
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:09am Aug 26, 2010 11:09am
Quoting bbakker
Looks like it got filled this time round looking at my iPhone4 Forex app.

I personally have to create orders and without having a MT4 feed at work, there is not a lot I can do at work once I have placed the order. I can't fiddle with it, I can't make changes to it. I planned the trade and now hopefully the trade will go to plan. This is actually a positive thing as in the past I have often made changes during the actual trade and so therefore I was not sticking to any plan. Not having access to my trading account at work means that I cannot do...
  • #249,011
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:16am Aug 26, 2010 11:16am
Nice pin on the weekly, hope it will be there till tomorrow. i am predicting the next 1000 pip upmove here.... 1.5370-1.6377 as USDX bounced of 83.60 yesterday, we might have already seen the bottom on GU
  • #249,012
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:23am Aug 26, 2010 11:23am
Quoting PipGrabber
Also should mention that today's candle opened above my trendline, so I more convinced of a reversal at this point.
You may be right, but the Monthly Dynamic Balance Point is sitting at 15625, and we're still trading under the Descending Daily TL.

During the last move up, many people were calling reversal on July 1st, 12th, and 21st. That's why I prefer to wait for confirmation on the break out for trend reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #249,013
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:25am Aug 26, 2010 11:25am
Quoting Honored
Nice pin on the weekly, hope it will be there till tomorrow. i am predicting the next 1000 pip upmove here.... 1.5370-1.6377 as USDX bounced of 83.60 yesterday, we might have already seen the bottom on GU
my thinking too, just struggling to get an acceptable entry.......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #249,014
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:29am Aug 26, 2010 11:29am
Targets for that kinda pattern are the fibs correction % of the last leg, so any of 38.2/50/61.8 can do thet job.
Yes... it could also be 78.6/88.6%

Your "call" could be good until 38.2 at least - witch been done at 1,5514, so next logic target of pattern is 50% @ 1.4990.

Just wanted to put thing in perspective, this is no strike call.
As, gartley pattern can extend as butterfly.

Take care!


Quoting BlueCirrus
Hi Everyone:

For those that trade Harmonic (Gartley type) patterns, a "Bearish Bat" has formed on Cable....
"Flip that coin!"
  • #249,015
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:36am Aug 26, 2010 11:36am
I agree, peeps need to be carefull whit long.
Short term up momentum can be trade but their is still alot of pressure down.
Volume at 1.5580 is udge.

No higher high on 4h or daily = still down.
If upper TL get broken, then..... 1.5630.

Let's not forget 1,5710 that will be like a rock the break also.
No need to make 4 weeks call, sticking to my chart!

Beware or be square guys! LOL
Later!



Quoting Fudomyo
You may be right, but the Monthly Dynamic Balance Point is sitting at 15625, and we're still trading under the Descending Daily TL.

During the last move up, many people were calling reversal on July 1st, 12th, and 21st. That's why I prefer to wait for confirmation on the break out for trend reversal.
"Flip that coin!"
  • #249,016
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:36am Aug 26, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Honored
Nice pin on the weekly, hope it will be there till tomorrow. i am predicting the next 1000 pip upmove here.... 1.5370-1.6377 as USDX bounced of 83.60 yesterday, we might have already seen the bottom on GU
If I remember correctly the weekly candlestick finalises on a Friday, unless Friday is now a weekend day... wish it was

Still have GDP figures to come out tomorrow so anything can happen between now and market close that might change that pin into 3 crows or any other candlestick formation you can think of.

Remember that assumptions are the mother of all fook ups!

Just my 2 pennies.
  • #249,017
  • Aug 26, 2010 11:37am Aug 26, 2010 11:37am
Quoting digger1
Digs... you're the man!
  • #249,018
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:00pm Aug 26, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting Scipionz
Targets for that kinda pattern are the fibs correction % of the last leg, so any of 38.2/50/61.8 can do thet job.
Yes... it could also be 78.6/88.6%

Your "call" could be good until 38.2 at least - witch been done at 1,5514, so next logic target of pattern is 50% @ 1.4990.

Just wanted to put thing in perspective, this is no strike call.
As, gartley pattern can extend as butterfly.

Take care!

Thanks for the reply Scipionz...I have attached a screenshot showing the differing Fib levels for each Harmonic pattern according to Scott Carney of Harmonictrader.com. This pattern, of course, like any other, can sometimes fail to achieve it's target, but for the most part, it is a very reliable trade setup. As for 1.4990, that is certainly possible, but I will always take partial profits at the middle retrace level (154.80 in this case) and at the test of the low of the pattern.

Good Luck and thanks again!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Harmonic Patterns.GIF Size: 113 KB
  • #249,019
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:02pm Aug 26, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting MarcusK
Hi Cloggy!

I need ur advice pls, I entered in a Cable trade as thus:
entry: 1.55500
SL: 1.54590
TP: 1.55795

Is this a good trade?
Yes! I think I can answer myself here, really it was a good but little trade which as a day trader using 1 lot size profitted a little bit. I would say more that it is a fair trade.
  • #249,020
  • Edited 12:59pm Aug 26, 2010 12:16pm | Edited 12:59pm
Hey Mate,

Hope you're staying cool!

I'll post the set up for the RSX on my thread, don't want to clog up the board here with geek talk.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post3979718

btw:I wanted to mention to you to check out the Meguro pool. It's a great place to hang out in summer. I used to live in the building in the park facing the pool, was a lot of fun taking trading breaks in the pool.

On weekdays you practically have the whole place to yourself!


Quoting uksnowman
this seems like a great tool to add to the toolbox. I must admit I am still not that confident in my scalping abilities. Do you have any links to where this type of indicator use is discussed in a bit more detail?

Do you mind explaining what period is the black MA on the RSX and how you are using that i.e. as an MA cross for trend change or is that just the 14MA to show the longer term trend overlayed on the short term?
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