USD/JPY Discussion | Page 893 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,841
  • Aug 23, 2010 4:27pm Aug 23, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting realjumper
No problem man....I understood what you were getting at....after a bit of thinking! I remember people saying the same thing about USA wanting to keep crude in USD. I could go on about that idiot Bush and his reasoning for the invasion.....but I don't think Bush actually possessed the power of reasoning to begin with....lol......but that's a topic for a different forum!!

It will be interesting this week, both from a trading standpoint and from a political one too, as far as Aussie politics goes......having the greens hold the balance of power does...

Def. Interesting mate, forgot you were a kiwi

Totally agree with a short period with the greens is enough. I am not australian but I live/work here and has done so for the last 6 years and there's sooo many changes that has to be done...

Even internet here, we get a shaped line if we go over!! HAHA, that's 15 years ago we had it like that in europe...
  • #17,842
  • Aug 23, 2010 4:30pm Aug 23, 2010 4:30pm
Quoting TheArcher
yes , that was bear flag , alright .

.. it dare not drop until after i turn off the computer ...sigh !

uj keeps sliding.......all this buying in this range is a trap, its only covering....they are trying to get weaker shorts out of their positions. Yen longs will keep buying and drive this lower until BOJ comes in....
  • #17,843
  • Aug 23, 2010 4:36pm Aug 23, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting mfoste1
Yen longs will keep buying and drive this lower until BOJ comes in....
How exactly would buying drive the price lower?
This is what awesome feels like
  • #17,844
  • Aug 23, 2010 4:39pm Aug 23, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting BudFox
How exactly would buying drive the price lower?

when uj is sold, that means yen is being bought....
  • #17,845
  • Aug 23, 2010 4:48pm Aug 23, 2010 4:48pm
Just went Long @ 85.13.

SL=84.42

TP=Leaving that one open for now so I dont have it yet in place. At 85.30 I'll raise my Sl above BE.
  • #17,846
  • Aug 23, 2010 7:28pm Aug 23, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting mfoste1
uj keeps sliding.......all this buying in this range is a trap, its only covering....they are trying to get weaker shorts out of their positions. Yen longs will keep buying and drive this lower until BOJ comes in....
And that might not be a bad thing. That's the interesting thing about SSI....it's usefulness as a contraian indicator is limted, although where the line is drawn, who knows? I mean, 85% of traders are long on this pair, which, according to SSI means further downside. Retail traders don't move this market much....they certainly don't change trends! Having said that, sooner or later this pair will turn around, whether by BOJ or by some other influence. 85% of the retail traders won't be wrong. There is so much about the Yen being at this level that is bad, and everyone can see it, and it's consequences...so that, in my opinion does NOT mean that the pair will continue to drop jusp because everyone is long.

After all, if it begins to rain and people go inside ther houses...does that mean that it will rain more?

SSI as a contraian indicator is forming a big question mark in my head. After researching it for several weeks, and casually watching it for months, I am becoming less and less inclined to believe it.

Lets imagine that this pair drops to 72.00. Lets also imagine that 99% of traders are now long on this pair. Does that neccessarily mean that the price will drop more? That's a ridiculous way to think!!

People are long on this pair for a good reason. Will that amount of traders force this pair down more?....I am sure that this is the reason for this painfully slow decline in this pair, but that doesn't mean that 85% of the retail traders are wrong.....not at all. It just means that those 85% are keeping this pair down here for the time being.

The market is bigger and stronger that 85% of retail traders.

Oh look.....it's startng to rain.....lets all go outside to make the rain stop!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,847
  • Aug 23, 2010 7:34pm Aug 23, 2010 7:34pm
Quoting Larseg
Def. Interesting mate, forgot you were a kiwi

Totally agree with a short period with the greens is enough. I am not australian but I live/work here and has done so for the last 6 years and there's sooo many changes that has to be done...

Even internet here, we get a shaped line if we go over!! HAHA, that's 15 years ago we had it like that in europe...
It's a question of can we afford super fast internet? In NZ it's ok, but nothing like Japan has. But 4 million people cannot afford the internet such as Japan's millions can afford. It's possibly the same with Aussie internet vs Europe??
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,848
  • Aug 23, 2010 7:50pm Aug 23, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting bablo
Inside bar last Friday.

Daily close above 85.795 will give longs the much needed steam, while a close below 85.174 will cause me to bail my long bias.

Daily charts still showing HD which also helps the long bias.

Time will tell but shorting should be done with caution ATM.
Not looking good for the bottom finding. Daily closed under 85.174. Although not convincingly under nonetheless.

HD still in play but not for long if this lady doesn't hike up her skirt and get moving up the mountain soon.

Long bias is dissipating quickly and I'm not comfortable entering any more longs at this time. I will let a little more time pass and if the HD is invalidated and/or the hourly closes lower than 84.75 then I will bail my one lonely position at 85.000.

That being said, I still cannot take a short stand. The true impact of the Yen value will eventually be realized and the reaction will be sudden IMO. Once again time will tell.
  • #17,849
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:13pm Aug 23, 2010 8:13pm
85.00 has been broken 3 times and retraced up clearly testing the BOJ's patience for quite some time now.

BOJ intervention is all verbal. Like they said, "put your money where your mouth is" and unfortunately, BOJ is just all talk.. thus this pair kept falling.

Remember "Boy who cried wolf" and BOJ has cried wolf 3 times already.
  • #17,850
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:17pm Aug 23, 2010 8:17pm
Quoting BurgerKing
85.00 has been broken 3 times and retraced up clearly testing the BOJ's patience for quite some time now.

BOJ intervention is all verbal. Like they said, "put your money where your mouth is" and unfortunately, BOJ is just all talk.. thus this pair kept falling.

Remember "Boy who cried wolf" and BOJ has cried wolf 3 times already.
BOJ cries wolf and Japanese companies are crying uncle. I wonder which one will tap out first.
  • #17,851
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:23pm Aug 23, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting BurgerKing
85.00 has been broken 3 times and retraced up clearly testing the BOJ's patience for quite some time now.

BOJ intervention is all verbal. Like they said, "put your money where your mouth is" and unfortunately, BOJ is just all talk.. thus this pair kept falling.

Remember "Boy who cried wolf" and BOJ has cried wolf 3 times already.
I think the market will certainly test BOJ's resolve. The talking heads in Japan can't do much else other than talk.....but the more they talk, the worse it becomes for them. Wherever they draw a line....be it 85, 84.40, 84.00 or wherever, the market will go and test it!

Japan is in a difficult position, but just as with the Greece clusterfuk, procrastination will just make matters worse for themselves
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,852
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:31pm Aug 23, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting realjumper
I think the market will certainly test BOJ's resolve. The talking heads in Japan can't do much else other than talk.....but the more they talk, the worse it becomes for them. Wherever they draw a line....be it 85, 84.40, 84.00 or wherever, the market will go and test it!
Japan is in a difficult position, but just as with the Greece clusterfuk, procrastination will just make matters worse for themselves

exactly.....that's why they haven't proposed a number. They are almost out of bullets. Another thing I've noticed, it might not mean anything and maybe I'm overthinking this, but to me it seems like they keep delaying their meetings and when they do have them nothing gets accomplished. This leads me to believe that they don't have a clue as how to resolve the issue, or even if there is a solution for that matter.....What will happen in the meantime? yen will continue to strengthen, markets dont give breaks to anyone.
  • #17,853
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:42pm Aug 23, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting mfoste1
exactly.....that's why they haven't proposed a number. They are almost out of bullets. Another thing I've noticed, it might not mean anything and maybe I'm overthinking this, but to me it seems like they keep delaying their meetings and when they do have them nothing gets accomplished. This leads me to believe that they don't have a clue as how to resolve the issue, or even if there is a solution for that matter.....What will happen in the meantime? yen will continue to strengthen, markets dont give breaks to anyone.
I agree 100%....I honestly think that they don't have a plan. As I've said before, I work for a Japanese owned and run company here in NZ, and I get to see how they work. I absolutely don't mean to pidgeon hole anyone or to be derogotary to Japanese people, but, when the shit hit's the fan.....they have meetings.....and nothing ever gets resolved!!

Yes, they are out of bullets, and the last real bullet they have, they cannot bite. They need to devalue the Yen, but to do that they need the co-operation of the other central banks.....and they ain't going to give it. So......what's left for them to do?......start buying shit loads of the greenback?

One thing is for sure....if they keep doing nothing, then nothing will change
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,854
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:46pm Aug 23, 2010 8:46pm
Quoting realjumper
I agree 100%....I honestly think that they don't have a plan. As I've said before, I work for a Japanese owned and run company here in NZ, and I get to see how they work. I absolutely don't mean to pidgeon hole anyone or to be derogotary to Japanese people, but, when the shit hit's the fan.....they have meetings.....and nothing ever gets resolved!!

Yes, they are out of bullets, and the last real bullet they have, they cannot bite. They need to devalue the Yen, but to do that they need the co-operation of the other central banks.....and they...

today will be interesting.......right now i have half position in au just below 9000 and 1/4 pos in aud/chf....im not messing with yen trades right now, that's playing with fire.

uj broke 85, ej broke lows as well........
  • #17,855
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:57pm Aug 23, 2010 8:57pm
Quoting mfoste1
today will be interesting.......right now i have half position in au just below 9000 and 1/4 pos in aud/chf....im not messing with yen trades right now, that's playing with fire.

uj broke 85, ej broke lows as well........
I'm short on the kiwi from the pivot..sl at be, and that's the only open trade I have at the moment. I have a buy order on uj at 84.50, but it's only a small position.

Sooner or later this whole fx market is going to move..just a matter of time, so patience is of the essence!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,856
  • Aug 23, 2010 9:00pm Aug 23, 2010 9:00pm
Quoting realjumper
I'm short on the kiwi from the pivot..sl at be, and that's the only open trade I have at the moment. I have a buy order on uj at 84.50, but it's only a small position.

Sooner or later this whole fx market is going to move..just a matter of time, so patience is of the essence!!

it would be nice if it did this week .....I wanna establish positions before classes start next week so I don't have to bring my laptop into every class. Most kids kinda look at me like im weird or something, trading in class :nerd:
  • #17,857
  • Aug 23, 2010 9:04pm Aug 23, 2010 9:04pm
Quoting realjumper
USD/JPY is a sell as long as risk aversion remains....retail traders don't have much say in the matter!
Risk aversion ???? You have Japan, UK and US of A implementing quantitative easing. Not to forget quasi QE by ECB. Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index is almost strong buy levels - means risk aversion has been in play for the last 6 month.

When and if retail traders capitulate USD/JPY will become a strong buy.

Unfortunately with readings of 6:1 long positions this is not yet the case. Last print 84.99. Mrs. Watanabe has not yet learned her lesson...
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,858
  • Aug 23, 2010 9:06pm Aug 23, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting MisterTrader
Risk aversion ???? You have Japan, UK and US of A implementing quantitative easing. Not to forget quasi QE by ECB. Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index is almost strong buy levels - means risk aversion has been in play for the last 6 month.

When and if retail traders capitulate USD/JPY will become a strong buy.
Unfortunately with readings of 6:1 long positions this is not yet the case. Last print 84.99. Mrs. Watanabe has not yet learned her lesson...
rj is right......this is purely risk aversion

retail traders are not moving this pair.......retail traders are long trying to catch a bottom. Hence a reason why most retail traders are not winners....
  • #17,859
  • Aug 23, 2010 9:24pm Aug 23, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting mfoste1
rj is right......this is purely risk aversion

retail traders are not moving this pair.......retail traders are long trying to catch a bottom. Hence a reason why most retail traders are not winners....
Last Thursday's Unemployment and Philly Fed tried hard to break the 85.00 only to run into something big underneath. This drop from the weeks start is already showing divergence as it hits the same areas. Knock enough times and it will eventually give but there's little momentum on this drive, Back to at least mid range 85.40-50 if not the range top, imho.............

fwiw
  • #17,860
  • Aug 23, 2010 9:55pm Aug 23, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting mfoste1
rj is right......this is purely risk aversion

retail traders are not moving this pair.......retail traders are long trying to catch a bottom. Hence a reason why most retail traders are not winners....
Of course retail traders are not moving this pair. But you can use them as a proxy for your timing. As retail traders are "not winners", you have to stay short USD/JPY. Right now, retailers are massive long. At they very moment retailers capitulate and "flip" to the short side => strong buy.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
23 traders viewing now