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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,821
  • Aug 21, 2010 6:31am Aug 21, 2010 6:31am
Quoting realjumper

To each their own.....the point is to take the banks money....doesn't matter how you do it

5c
You got it! With all my experience I second every word of your post!
  • #17,822
  • Aug 21, 2010 9:12am Aug 21, 2010 9:12am
Quoting auxesis
Hummmm? Me's not smart enough most of the time to pick the exact level to enter, so me targets an area and adds the biggest when it gets the deepest in the area, but if you's gonna add when it's going in reverse you needs to understand when to add when it's going your way.

Tis' not hard once you understand the math.

fwiw, no one shoots all their ammo at the first skirmish and lives to finish the battle. Markets are great at letting people paint themselves into a corner.

regards

da math
yea no one can expect to pick an exact entry level........what i meant by averaging down was not a good strategy was that it is a lot more difficult to be profitable using this technique when you are trading against the trend. Ive seen traders get over a hundred pips in the red, only hoping that price will come back in their favor.....on top of all that they are trading against the trend hoping to catch a bottom or top.....this simply doesnt work very often

sure I guess you can say i "average" on entering a swing position. But I space my full position over 20-30 pips, not something like 200 pips...... and I never trade against the trend, and my stops for the positions net will never be more than 50-80 pips. If I need more than that for a position to come back to profitability, then ive obviously done something wrong in my analysis and i should re-evaluate the trade.
  • #17,823
  • Aug 21, 2010 9:28am Aug 21, 2010 9:28am
mfoste1

what is swing trade?

how do u trade swing trade ?
  • #17,824
  • Edited 12:49pm Aug 21, 2010 11:54am | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting TheArcher
mfoste1

what is swing trade?

how do u trade swing trade ?

swing trading more or less is playing the swing highs or lows of a trend, it works well on tf's higher than 2h(ie 4h, 8h daily) The swing highs and lows of the trend are very easily defined by these higher tf charts and it is much easier to see the real price action of the trend......I always swing trade with the trend......that is why i have been saying im short on uj, because if you look at these tf's, the trend hasn't changed all it is doing is consolidating at the lows......

there are a lot of people out there trying to catch a bottom on this, and that's fine if its their strategy, but then they'll get all pissed off when they get their dicks kicked in when the trend continues and they'll sit there and contemplate how they screwed up. After they get burnt on trying to catch the bottom, they decide hmmm maybe they should go with the trend now, but now the trend is finally changing and they will get burnt yet one more time trying to follow a trend that has changed. This mistake is sooooo common.......I used to do it, then I got smart!

I don't do that. I wait till a trend has been confirmed then I go where the big money goes It's so much easier and less stressful.
  • #17,825
  • Aug 21, 2010 5:04pm Aug 21, 2010 5:04pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-majority.html


this is very bad for risk.....aj will most likely get hit hard on sunday night. Expect uj to do the same.....
  • #17,826
  • Aug 21, 2010 5:46pm Aug 21, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting Deanchain
he such a narrowminded...
How could he know how big my account and how i trade.. unless he is a psychic... LOL...



This is the important point...
No single method trading is the best among others.... so never judge others method ...

no I'm not narrow minded, I'm just realistic.......

How could I know how big your account is? well this is what I'm factoring into the equation....You just recently joined FF, which tells me that you don't have much live trading experience, if any. Also by looking at your previous posts, that is telling me the same thing. That's why I said you are probably not trading a large live account, one that has enough capital to average down against a trend(and UJ pair, which is not a beginners pair to trade) with very little experience. However you do show effort to learn more which we all need to do! Trading takes a lot of effort and experience to be good.

Again I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just being realistic
  • #17,827
  • Aug 21, 2010 7:31pm Aug 21, 2010 7:31pm
according to the daily spinning top with the inside bar, i expect the usd/yen to go higher till around 86.72 area before going back down if it has to. But the risk reward in defavorable. i will stay out
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  • #17,828
  • Aug 21, 2010 7:33pm Aug 21, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting mfoste1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-majority.html


this is very bad for risk.....aj will most likely get hit hard on sunday night. Expect uj to do the same.....
Maybe....a hung parliament has always been on the cards and has been discussed ad nausium through the media here, so I shouldn't be suprised if this was 'built in' to the pa....up to a point of course.

In a few hours time we will see, but the aussies are caught between a rock and a hard place.....many don't like Gillard for her underhanded and arrogant handling of the whole party leadership issue.....and many don't like Abbot because he is perceived to be too weak for the job.

Quite what the market does in response, we will have to wait and see, but I don't know whether there will be a huge reaction or not in this pair....I doubt it. If there is, I hope it's to the downside....that way I'll have another bottom to pick!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,829
  • Aug 21, 2010 8:31pm Aug 21, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting realjumper
Maybe....a hung parliament has always been on the cards and has been discussed ad nausium through the media here, so I shouldn't be suprised if this was 'built in' to the pa....up to a point of course.

In a few hours time we will see, but the aussies are caught between a rock and a hard place.....many don't like Gillard for her underhanded and arrogant handling of the whole party leadership issue.....and many don't like Abbot because he is perceived to be too weak for the job.

Quite what the market does in response, we will have to wait and...

When I said Saddam Hussein RJ I were thinking about the Iraqi war and how people said the US went to war because they wanted to keep Crude in US dollars...

Looking back at the post it was a bit unclear, I will clear this and future posts up with my artistical site of the brain before posting next time...

Trade Well
  • #17,830
  • Edited 11:27pm Aug 21, 2010 11:15pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting mfoste1
no I'm not narrow minded, I'm just realistic.......

How could I know how big your account is? well this is what I'm factoring into the equation....You just recently joined FF, which tells me that you don't have much live trading experience, if any. Also by looking at your previous posts, that is telling me the same thing. That's why I said you are probably not trading a large live account, one that has enough capital to average down against a trend(and UJ pair, which is not a beginners pair to trade) with very little experience. However you do...
Haha u just think with your way...
Posting can be tricky.. Senoir.. And I know you are totally wrong.
Some of my friends can use my user name.. not all the forex trader must have an account in FF n posting in FF. Be logic...
FYI I used to do long trading but some times I do day trading, it depends on the situation..
UJ is saver than GU, AU and EU..
So don't bother other trader style..
World is much bigger than your thought...
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,831
  • Edited 2:37am Aug 22, 2010 2:00am | Edited 2:37am
Quoting mfoste1
swing trading more or less is playing the swing highs or lows of a trend, it works well on tf's higher than 2h(ie 4h, 8h daily) The swing highs and lows of the trend are very easily defined by these higher tf charts and it is much easier to see the real price action of the trend......
so u look at only 4H , 8H and Daily charts ..?

u enter on the 2H chart ..?

when do u exit ..?

Quoting mfoste1

I wait till a trend has been confirmed then I go where the big money goes It's so much easier and less stressful.
how do u confirm a trend has established ?

say, in uptrend, do u look at HH and HL on the 2H chart .. or other higher timeframe to confirm trend ...

how many HH and HL must it be before it is confirmed that the uptrend has established ?

------------

the picture below ..

is this how a swing high and swing low look like ?

is this the definition of swing ?

how should the candle pattern be to confirm that the swing is beginning or ending ..?

-------------

i am reading through the 'epic' of Strat's Long Term thread,starting with google index ... need to know about swing and if urs is similar to his thought process ...

--------------

thanks for ur patience in explaining things to me
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  • #17,832
  • Aug 22, 2010 2:02am Aug 22, 2010 2:02am
Quoting Larseg
When I said Saddam Hussein RJ I were thinking about the Iraqi war and how people said the US went to war because they wanted to keep Crude in US dollars...

Looking back at the post it was a bit unclear, I will clear this and future posts up with my artistical site of the brain before posting next time...

Trade Well
No problem man....I understood what you were getting at....after a bit of thinking! I remember people saying the same thing about USA wanting to keep crude in USD. I could go on about that idiot Bush and his reasoning for the invasion.....but I don't think Bush actually possessed the power of reasoning to begin with....lol......but that's a topic for a different forum!!

It will be interesting this week, both from a trading standpoint and from a political one too, as far as Aussie politics goes......having the greens hold the balance of power does not bode well for a government to actually govern for a for a full term. I see another election in the not-too-distant future
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,833
  • Aug 22, 2010 2:12am Aug 22, 2010 2:12am
Quoting realjumper

It will be interesting this week, both from a trading standpoint and from a political one too, as far as Aussie politics goes......having the greens hold the balance of power does not bode well for a government to actually govern for a for a full term. I see another election in the not-too-distant future
tongue-in-cheek ...

does this mean gold will increase ..?
  • #17,834
  • Aug 22, 2010 2:40am Aug 22, 2010 2:40am
Quoting TheArcher
tongue-in-cheek ...

does this mean gold will increase ..?
Uranium might!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,835
  • Aug 22, 2010 2:44am Aug 22, 2010 2:44am
Quoting realjumper
Uranium might!
u mean becos of Iran going nuclear !
  • #17,836
  • Aug 22, 2010 2:51am Aug 22, 2010 2:51am
Quoting TheArcher
u mean becos of Iran going nuclear !
No, because the greens hold the balance of power, so they will want to stop uranium mining in Aussie
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,837
  • Aug 22, 2010 5:41pm Aug 22, 2010 5:41pm
Inside bar last Friday.

Daily close above 85.795 will give longs the much needed steam, while a close below 85.174 will cause me to bail my long bias.

Daily charts still showing HD which also helps the long bias.

Time will tell but shorting should be done with caution ATM.
  • #17,838
  • Aug 22, 2010 6:35pm Aug 22, 2010 6:35pm
Daily shows a large descending wedge with the current bottom coming in some where around 83.00-.

The immediate time frames appear to be forming a range bounded on top by the mid 86's with the bottom doubling off last Novembers spike low of 84.80's.

The prior failed break south of 84.82 could be viewed as a spring if new highs above 86.50 are seen after last weeks failed low. If seen look for extra long opportunities on the following pullback long term targets the top of the daily wedge immediate targets at double the range distance.

Any sustained break on the southern edge of the range target the bottom of the daily wedge, but be prepared for action from the BOJ .

In the interim, pick a direction north or south and play the range sides.

fwiw...........
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  • #17,839
  • Edited 1:59am Aug 23, 2010 1:44am | Edited 1:59am
hourly chart

classic bear flag in the making ...?
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  • #17,840
  • Aug 23, 2010 10:33am Aug 23, 2010 10:33am
yes , that was bear flag , alright .

.. it dare not drop until after i turn off the computer ...sigh !
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