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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #247,181
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:01am Aug 19, 2010 10:01am
Quoting pawpaw1000
how bout the 25 on m15, holding us down nicely and turning...

The trade is actually starting to look good

will wait for break...

Reckon if we break we could be going further than Pivot, if we go down!

it's pretty close now
looks like u/e is about 2 break 50sma on 5 min and 1h,, 200 sma on 15 min and some other sma on 30m,, all of which lay around 1.2850,, if that level breaks,, that will drag cable with it... hopefully.....
  • #247,182
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:01am Aug 19, 2010 10:01am
Cloggie, PipGrabber, MagicHat,

Thanks for the help guys.
  • #247,183
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:02am Aug 19, 2010 10:02am
Quoting skerdi-meta
looks like u/e is about 2 break 50sma on 5 min and 1h,, 200 sma on 15 min and some other sma on 30m,, all of which lay around 1.2850,, if that level breaks,, that will drag cable with it... hopefully.....
dunno, fibre m15 looks like a bull flag and as soon as london closes, NY is gonna break her up...

This can go either way...

cloggs, what do you reckon about the usual NY move after London close?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #247,184
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:04am Aug 19, 2010 10:04am
Quoting pawpaw1000
dunno, fibre m15 looks like a bull flag and as soon as london closes, NY is gonna break her up...

This can go either way...

fibre will be a bull flag as soon as we get one more touch to form the bottom. Right now it is a limp wet rag.

All depending on this next bar it could actually form a pennant instead of a flag.
  • #247,185
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:08am Aug 19, 2010 10:08am
Quoting cloggie
fibre will be a bull flag as soon as we get one more touch to form the bottom. Right now it is a limp wet rag.
Might be,,, but if e/u 15m closes below 1.2850 b4 shooting up,, bull flag might not work,, sl 2 break even though
  • #247,186
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:09am Aug 19, 2010 10:09am
Quoting skerdi-meta
Might be,,, but if e/u 15m closes below 1.2850 b4 shooting up,, bull flag might not work,, sl 2 break even though

Not quite sure what you are saying a close below 2850 would actually confirm a flag and not a pennant.
  • #247,187
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:10am Aug 19, 2010 10:10am
Quoting cloggie
Y

Of course while it sits here there is nothing wrong with scalping the inside of it. If you do your key will be the 50 retrace within the top of 5645, any rejection on that indicates a reversal to the opposite side of the top.

For those taking the inside scalp, here comes the key level for continuation to the top of the pattern or rejection back to the base line.

So a rejection of 5645 will test the base again. A break of the base would need to follow the standard 50 extension rule in my earlier post.
  • #247,188
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:10am Aug 19, 2010 10:10am
Quoting cloggie
fibre will be a bull flag as soon as we get one more touch to form the bottom. Right now it is a limp wet rag.

All depending on this next bar it could actually form a pennant instead of a flag.
for those who want the difference between flag and pennant...

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #247,189
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:11am Aug 19, 2010 10:11am
Quoting cloggie
We are actually forming a right angled broadening top on the 15. GM calls it a megaphone, same thing. Am going to enjoy my tea while I wait for the d@rn thing to go.
Hey Cloggie...I see the megaphone you're referring to also on M30 but since it's forming within what I call a Broadening Bottom (on M30 as well) with a much greater scope I consider that a continuation pattern rather than a reversal one...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #247,190
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:12am Aug 19, 2010 10:12am
Quoting cloggie
Not quite sure what you are saying a close below 2850 would actually confirm a flag and not a pennant.
anyways,, personally,, I dont really rely much on flags....
  • #247,191
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:14am Aug 19, 2010 10:14am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Hey Cloggie...I see the megaphone you're referring to also on M30 but since it's forming within what I call a Broadening Bottom (on M30 as well) with a much greater scope I consider that a continuation pattern rather than a reversal one...

I was only focusing on the rejection of it as so many here are short of the TL on the hourly and I wanted to point them to a confirmation of that short. In my experience broadening tops are reversal patterns in about 40% of the time as long as the 50fib extension of the broad side is breached or else it will be continuation in about 80% of the time and then a breach of the top would not need a 50 extension of the broadside but the key level then would be 50% of the pole.
  • #247,192
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:14am Aug 19, 2010 10:14am
Quoting mygoldenpips
yup..
kamikaze trade..
capital 100usd turn 1000usd in couple of hours.
that my style..
and please to try this at home..
but my SL move to BE +1pips
how u do that....
bro add me in skype or ym...
  • #247,193
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:16am Aug 19, 2010 10:16am
Quoting skerdi-meta
anyways,, personally,, I dont really rely much on flags....

Have a look at them going back on your M15, they are wonderful as long as you know the limitations and confirmations of false breaks, they probably are valid 80-90% of the time. So over time they are a good money maker.
  • #247,194
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:16am Aug 19, 2010 10:16am
Quoting cloggie
For those taking the inside scalp, here comes the key level for continuation to the top of the pattern or rejection back to the base line.

So a rejection of 5645 will test the base again. A break of the base would need to follow the standard 50 extension rule in my earlier post.

You can see how the 50 retrace of the broadside is playing out now and how it is key to the continuation to the opposite side.

I am hogging the thread again, apologies. Your fault pawpaw for anticipating a break and ignoring the basics.

Zooming out to the M5 you can clearly see how to play a broadening top with the 50 level being rejected plenty of times. I am still working on figuring out statistically whether you can deduct something from the rejections.

Flags, pennants and broadening tops are lovely to trade it keeps you out of anticipating breaks, it gives you a pretty well defined scalping range and once it breaks you will have very preset targets to aim for. And they are extremely useful for identifying trend changes on the higher TF's
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  • #247,195
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:19am Aug 19, 2010 10:19am
Quoting dzulfx
how u do that....
bro add me in skype or ym...
cheak your pm bro..
Revesal Trader
  • #247,196
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:21am Aug 19, 2010 10:21am
hi guys do you think this week or next GBP will continue to downside to 154ish or 157ish? Please answer masters....i still hold my short from 15580 =(....
thanks in advance
  • #247,197
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:21am Aug 19, 2010 10:21am
Re the discussion of how to draw the boxes .. today I just see one long and rather deep trading range. I have a small short from the high just in case she breaks south .. but at the moment, she is just bouncing around inside the 'box'... teasing us all, as usual....
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******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #247,198
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:23am Aug 19, 2010 10:23am
Quoting cloggie
I was only focusing on the rejection of it as so many here are short of the TL on the hourly and I wanted to point them to a confirmation of that short. In my experience broadening tops are reversal patterns in about 40% of the time as long as the 50fib extension of the broad side is breached or else it will be continuation in about 80% of the time and then a breach of the top would not need a 50 extension of the broadside but the key level then would be 50% of the pole.
IMO the bigger broadening bottom (chart posted earlier) is a reversal of weeklong bear move.... the smaller broadening top we're in now is a continuation pattern of the reversal move (bull run) which started earlier today from 1.5509...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #247,199
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:24am Aug 19, 2010 10:24am
Quoting cloggie
You can see how the 50 retrace of the broadside is playing out now and how it is key to the continuation to the opposite side.

I am hogging the thread again, apologies. Your fault pawpaw for anticipating a break and ignoring the basics.
well cloggs, you have to admit, this is pretty frustrating! havent smoked for a week and here I go again! PA is sooooo dead its not even funny!

I would have thought we were going to break down by just looking at yesterday! I'm giving it another 20 min then I gotta go, My gf has organised a picnic
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #247,200
  • Aug 19, 2010 10:24am Aug 19, 2010 10:24am
Quoting cloggie
You can see how the 50 retrace of the broadside is playing out now and how it is key to the continuation to the opposite side.

I am hogging the thread again, apologies. Your fault pawpaw for anticipating a break and ignoring the basics.
Happy for you to have the floor - especially now pip stunner has decided he won't be posting here anymore
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