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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #246,321
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:19pm Aug 17, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting Magix
Ewww..whuts yer sl on this one mal?
Here is why ... pros buy weakness ... max volume on a 60 min for the week on a double bottom , worth trying just due to the selling cliamx we may be seeing.

60 odd pips for 150 pip reward is ok with me .

really just watching this channel , which is a channel till it is not

the fact that my long was off 50% fib retrace of down move also helps me... lol ..(just trying to justify why I am long when all my instincts scream sell rallies)

I know trend is down... but with sideways movement it may mean trend is weakening and we can play both sides.

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  • #246,322
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:35pm Aug 17, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
no specific tf...anything low resolution or zoomed out....

price retracing into congestion zone i.e. finding support (1.5900 retraced into CZ & found resistance then!)

just wanted to check if you saw any similar characteristics here...

see you LDN...have a good one!
I see what you're saying but I would want to see longer 'congestion' and a couple more spikes down (which we may get between now & LO). The other one lasted many hours with clear triple tops.
Waiting to see how this plays out .. my bias is lower because of 4h but the lower tf's are a definite 'maybe'
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #246,323
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:40pm Aug 17, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Here is why ... pros buy weakness ... max volume on a 60 min for the week on a double bottom...
I do believe we will see a little better price before another sell off, but don't quite think we going to shoot where you are thinking. Chopping through resistance all the way up to 1.57 without a true base....hrmmmmmm...

I have been thinking that we are heading for the H4 200EMA for a while now, and have only cautiously been playing the longside of the chart over the last week or so.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=246250
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=246056
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=244579

Given the area of the play, I would say that if we continue this downslide, we might just trip you out at the bottom of the play...

Just an observation here mango....
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #246,324
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:43pm Aug 17, 2010 5:43pm
blindly with out any negations am in sir 1.5581 from ur first call & am still holing my EURUSD longs 1.2338 since july ur call
  • #246,325
  • Aug 17, 2010 6:12pm Aug 17, 2010 6:12pm
Mag

here is what i am seeing

High volumes are all on the lows of the channel . Someone is buying heavy . I htink that we have a pretty nice base already , but we may have a shake out or these buyers maybe overcome , but the charts , from a vsa perspective show considerable buy interest

I am only suggesting top channel 1.5700 right now , not the moon ..lol

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Quoting Magix
I do believe we will see a little better price before another sell off, but don't quite think we going to shoot where you are thinking. Chopping through resistance all the way up to 1.57 without a true base....hrmmmmmm...

I have been thinking that we are heading for the H4 200EMA for a while now, and have only cautiously been playing the longside of the chart over the last week or so.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=246250
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=246056
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=244579...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #246,326
  • Aug 17, 2010 6:14pm Aug 17, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting monkey@forex
evening guys, is there any reason why the pound dropped today? Euro has barely dropped, so why has pound dropped, considering a few days ago we were thinking its done its retracement and will be back to 1.6000 or at least 1.57...
Yes, it is because there were more sellers than buyers, regardless of what "we" were thinking.
  • #246,327
  • Aug 17, 2010 6:25pm Aug 17, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting monkey@forex
evening guys, is there any reason why the pound dropped today? Euro has barely dropped, so why has pound dropped, considering a few days ago we were thinking its done its retracement and will be back to 1.6000 or at least 1.57...

the mnove down on gu is due to gbp weakness not usd strength

The move actually started at the end of us session yesterday. Think that pros sit here updating the ff calender waiting for news to come out ?

Here is the 30 min showing why this wetn down

1) UP move on very high volume into R , then double top ,
2 )note on 2nd top and the up candle there was NO volume , this is a no demand and gave me entry for the sell

Now we see potential buying at the base of the channel . If support 1.5530 broken or any upe moves are hit with sellers again on ultra high volume up bars then I can buy that the down move continues

Everything we need to know is in the charts....if i could survive on no sleep making billionbs would be easy ...lol . I just have to settle for millions for now. of course before any says prove it blah blah I am saying this tongue in cheek

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  • #246,328
  • Aug 17, 2010 7:28pm Aug 17, 2010 7:28pm
Nothing to confirm upside at support.

- Day closing under 2/3 and under TL, no new high on daily, 3rd time we attack support.

Probability is down... why make funny guess, just wait call confirmation.

So good gambling everyone!

"Flip that coin!"
  • #246,329
  • Aug 17, 2010 7:56pm Aug 17, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting malcolmb14
me I am

if news was that bad why the hell has max volume on 60 min all week occurred on major support level that the buyers have been accumualting off all week

this is a pure vsa trade

long 1.5558 target 1.5700

Attachment
i closed this one .. looking at es seems like trap up move to me today , waiting till us tomorrow to trade again , seems the best way these days , take it session by session
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #246,330
  • Aug 17, 2010 8:25pm Aug 17, 2010 8:25pm
LONDON (MNI) - Market and media speculation that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee may have split three ways at its August meeting could prove unfounded, as the key probabilities of the BOE's quarterly August Inflation Report were so similar to May's it's doubtful MPC members will have switched sides.
  • #246,331
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:14pm Aug 17, 2010 9:14pm
Nice blog, nice article:

Must Watch Kyle Bass Interview: "I Don't Know How I Can Be Long Stocks"
"Flip that coin!"
  • #246,332
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:19pm Aug 17, 2010 9:19pm
i went short at 1.5586, t/p at 1.5425
  • #246,333
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:49pm Aug 17, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting malcolmb14
i closed this one .. looking at es seems like trap up move to me today , waiting till us tomorrow to trade again , seems the best way these days , take it session by session
Yep.. an up move today seems a trap.. the plan is to follow the gu downside.. once it clears 1.5550 everything will clear lower..
  • #246,334
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:09pm Aug 17, 2010 10:09pm
Quoting mloistianto
Yep.. an up move today seems a trap.. the plan is to follow the gu downside.. once it clears 1.5550 everything will clear lower..
Two words, expanding triangle. Make a call once past its boundaries.
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  • #246,335
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:12pm Aug 17, 2010 10:12pm
Yet again good morning all. hope today going to be great.
I see some support at the moment and RSI hidden divergence pointing at oversoldness at a bigish support area anyone share my sentiment.

Thanks good luck.
  • #246,336
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:17pm Aug 17, 2010 10:17pm
OK sorry forgot to post my chart again hahaha. ignore the trendlines.
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  • #246,337
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:21pm Aug 17, 2010 10:21pm
sorry havnt had a coffee yet not hidden divergence my mistake just normal divergence.
  • #246,338
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:25pm Aug 17, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
OK sorry forgot to post my chart again hahaha. ignore the trendlines.
Don't agree.

To me the weekly has alot of room to the downside. Would be more comfortable in shorts rather than longs for the moment.

I do not have a position ATM but will be looking for shorts more than longs.
  • #246,339
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:29pm Aug 17, 2010 10:29pm
No i am not saying its going to be a up day, all i am saying it might support now, and with the germans comming into play not to long from now, they might add some strenght to it, even push it to 1,56 if the really nice today
  • #246,340
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:37pm Aug 17, 2010 10:37pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
No i am not saying its going to be a up day, all i am saying it might support now, and with the germans comming into play not to long from now, they might add some strenght to it, even push it to 1,56 if the really nice today
Anything is possible, but I wouldn't put a whole lotta money to ride for 1.56.

Immediate trend line resistance topside and if we bust through that on a buy back, it would most likely top at the 5m 200ema, a little lower then your expectations.

Topside resistance on chart.
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