Cable Update (GBPUSD) | Page 12309 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Cable Update - Continued 118 replies

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies

Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
Exit Attachments

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #246,161
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:47am Aug 17, 2010 4:47am
decks cleared

no rate hikes from UK in 2010
  • #246,162
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:48am Aug 17, 2010 4:48am
Quoting forexlion
yeah, he is my brother
You do make me crack up... sometimes!
  • #246,163
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:49am Aug 17, 2010 4:49am
Quoting bbakker
Excellent macroeconomic analysis, thanks

Cameron and his cohorts are doing something extraordinary here. They are managing the recession in a non-Keynesian way, unlike the US and the numbers are supporting them over and over again.

If they manage to pull this of, economist will have to throw away their theoretical ramblings that have supported Keynes for nearly 100 years and that have never worked in practise.

10-20 years from now people are going to look back on how they handled the recession and use it as a benchmark for future recessions.

As I have voiced plenty of times here, I am a big fan of how the UK is handling itself and laugh at the pethatic efforts of Obama that pale in comparison.

The only other country that has ever attempted this was Canada, and they were too focused on inflation for it to be succesful, but they are fairing loads better now then most thanks to their policies back in the 90's
  • #246,164
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:49am Aug 17, 2010 4:49am
Quoting forexlion
decks cleared

no rate hikes from UK in 2010
You never know... still got 4 meetings left this year, but it is highly unlikely.
  • #246,165
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:52am Aug 17, 2010 4:52am
Quoting cloggie
Cameron and his cohorts are doing something extraordinary here. They are managing the recession in a non-Keynesian way, unlike the US and the numbers are supporting them over and over again.

If they manage to pull this of, economist will have to throw away their theoretical ramblings that have supported Keynes for nearly 100 years and that have never worked in practise.

10-20 years from now people are going to look back on how they handled the recession and use it as a benchmark for future recessions.

As I have voiced plenty of times here,...
I am totally with you on that one! Some of my work colleagues think the opposite... the fools that they are, but hey... everyone is entitled to their opinion.
  • #246,166
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:52am Aug 17, 2010 4:52am
Quoting bbakker
You never know... still got 4 meetings left this year, but it is highly unlikely.

There is no need for it, the economy is growing, exports are increasing, the GDP is increasing, inflation is at bay, money supply is taken care of naturally. The UK is definitely on the right track.
  • #246,167
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:53am Aug 17, 2010 4:53am
Quoting bbakker
I am totally with you on that one! Some of my work colleagues think the opposite... the fools that they are, but hey... everyone is entitled to their opinion.

They are two very opposing views of how to tackle a crisis, there is the US way by government spending and borrowing silly amounts and there is the UK way by tackling the deficit, reduce the spending and grow the economy from the bottom up.

There will be plenty here that will support both views. The slight problem is that the US way is a true following of Keynes, and history has proven plenty of times that that does not work. The one key item in the Keynes way is addressing public debt albeit at a later date, something that Obamarama is ignoring entirely, he has no plan to tackle the deficit, so maybe we should call it the Obamarama approach to recession, the only thing he is investing in is printing presses.

Ah well enough on macro economic views, let's get back to playing the flag while she is still here.
  • #246,168
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:03am Aug 17, 2010 5:03am
Quoting cloggie
Did you make sure you got paid on reaching the top of the flag?
Don't quite follow. Why would I close when she's coming out of the flag?
  • #246,169
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:04am Aug 17, 2010 5:04am
Quoting AnonYmos
Don't quite follow. Why would I close when she's coming out of the flag?

You still had that long from the DP/bottom of the flag, right? The flag is holding on the 30 so cover and take your profits of the table.
  • #246,170
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:05am Aug 17, 2010 5:05am
Quoting cloggie
They are two very opposing views of how to tackle a crisis, there is the US way by government spending and borrowing silly amounts and there is the UK way by tackling the deficit, reduce the spending and grow the economy from the bottom up.

There will be plenty here that will support both views. The slight problem is that the US way is a true following of Keynes, and history has proven plenty of times that that does not work. The one key item in the Keynes way is addressing public debt albeit at a later date, something that Obamarama is ignoring...
The UK way is the painful yet effective way
The US way is the convenient one yet can lead to disaster
  • #246,171
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:08am Aug 17, 2010 5:08am
Quoting cloggie
The drop in Core CPI is a direct result of money supply and the effect of trade balance on the BOP, a reduction of the core number signifies a reduction in supply even though the trade balance and QE increased the supply, so yes under normal circumstances an increase would be a prelude to an increase in future interest hikes, however interest cannot be raised unless the money supply is taken care of first, a lowering of the core does that for Mervyn. Next report should now see a lowering of the overall CPI and the latent CPI (not directly published)

This...
The core CPI, as an inflation measure, strips out food and energy, among other components. Thus, it is often the measure that central bankers tend to place a great deal of focus on, as it shows the true price pressures that exist within the economy, through stripping out the volatile costs of imported commodities priced in dollars, such as food and energy.

A low core CPI does imply that the supply and velocity of money is dropping, due to the relative tightness of credit in the UK and the tendency of consumers, and banks, to hoard cash to repair their battered balance sheets.

It also shows how firms are unable to pass on full price increases to their customers, due to the weak final demand and excess spare capacity/slack that currently exists within the UK economy. This leads to an obvious squeeze on companies' profit margins.

However, if the trend of lower core CPI persists, increasing the chances that CPI and RPI drop below the 2% target (something that is a long way off). Then this outcome will undoubtedly be bearish for sterling, as it increases the odds of further QE, as the MPC strives to ensure deflation does not take hold, through increasing the supply - thus lowering the cost - of sterling.
  • #246,172
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:10am Aug 17, 2010 5:10am
Quoting gammase1

However, if the trend of lower core CPI persists, increasing the chances that CPI and RPI drop below the 2% target (something that is a long way off). Then this outcome will undoubtedly be bearish for sterling, as it increases the odds of further QE, as the MPC strives to ensure deflation does not take hold, through increasing the supply - thus lowering the cost - of sterling.

However, there is no need for an immediate QE as the supply is reducing naturally even in light of increase in trade balance, the next CPI/RPI will be the key whether Sterling will remain bearish. In the interim the reduction of core CPI is a good early indicator of reduction in supply.
  • #246,173
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:10am Aug 17, 2010 5:10am
Quoting cloggie
Cameron and his cohorts are doing something extraordinary here. They are managing the recession in a non-Keynesian way, unlike the US and the numbers are supporting them over and over again.

If they manage to pull this of, economist will have to throw away their theoretical ramblings that have supported Keynes for nearly 100 years and that have never worked in practise.

10-20 years from now people are going to look back on how they handled the recession and use it as a benchmark for future recessions.

As I have voiced plenty of times here,...
But the better than expected economic numbers, including the public finances, cannot yet be attributed to the Conservatives or any of their policies, as they have been in power too short a time for their economic policies to be objectively judged.

Canada was a different story. They had the backdrop of a booming global economy and were luckily producing lots of the raw materials that were needed to power that growth.

As for Keynes: true Keynesian policy involves running budget surpluses in the good times and targeted budget deficits in the lean period of an economic cycle - when private sector demand and balance sheets shrink and governments take the temporary slack. Unfortunately for the UK, Brown never managed the bit about having budget surpluses in the good times.
  • #246,174
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:12am Aug 17, 2010 5:12am
Quoting gammase1
Canada was a different story. They had the backdrop of a booming global economy and were luckily producing lots of the raw materials that were needed to power that growth.

Correct, but they at least took the view of a bottoms up recovery and not a top down one led by an increase in borrowing. And I used them as an example, because I think they made the mistake of focusing too much on 1% inflation.

Target 2% is achievable.
  • #246,175
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:13am Aug 17, 2010 5:13am
Quoting bbakker
mmmmmm, this sounds very much like Richard Hill's Forex Net Trap System. Am I right?
Hi BBaker,

Yes it was, sent it back though for refund. Good basic introduction though. Now I'm learning from the ground up!

I did reply earlier, but post seem to have got deleted. My posts also take time to show as I'm a newbie and they are monitered.

Your a great crowd here!
  • #246,176
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:14am Aug 17, 2010 5:14am
Quoting cloggie
You still had that long from the DP/bottom of the flag, right? The flag is holding on the 30 so cover and take your profits of the table.
Oh, come on, Cloggie, please let me stay in a weeny bit longer! I got the upper boundary of the flag, a feeble supp, the DP and a 200 MA between now and my entry. And now that she's kinda outa the flag she might take off blow thru the res @ .5703 shoot up to 1.70 and make me filthy rich!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eo 031-d.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #246,177
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:15am Aug 17, 2010 5:15am
Quoting gammase1
But the better than expected economic numbers, including the public finances, cannot yet be attributed to the Conservatives or any of their policies, as they have been in power too short a time for their economic policies to be objectively judged.

I agree again with you, but there is a distinct difference in approach and doing what DC is doing takes big brass ones, who will be right, we'll know in 10-20 years.

That said, you can see the difference in market sentiment here, just look at the confidence numbers and Gilt prices, the market likes what he is doing so far and good numbers will only reinforce that "feeling"
  • #246,178
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:18am Aug 17, 2010 5:18am
Quoting cloggie
There is no need for it, the economy is growing, exports are increasing, the GDP is increasing, inflation is at bay, money supply is taken care of naturally. The UK is definitely on the right track.
RPI figures will be hit with the VAT increase in January, but that is next year!

Anyway, like you said, back to the Price Action. For me on the bigger picture, if GU manages to break 1.5713, 1.5894 is the next target on the h4. We are a long way off and with many targets to get through on the lower tfs. I am bullish above 1.5713 and will probably go long on a pullback to this area once it breaks through.

Good luck with your trading people! See you all soon.
  • #246,179
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:18am Aug 17, 2010 5:18am
Quoting AnonYmos
Oh, come on, Cloggie, please let me stay in a weeny bit longer! I got the upper boundary of the flag, a feeble supp, the DP and a 200 MA between now and my entry. And now that she's kinda outa the flag she might take off blow thru the res @ .5703 shoot up to 1.70 and make me filthy rich!

It is your money, your trade, your strategy. I just highlighted your setup as an example of how to play the flag. You did well not shorting this at support and identifying the pattern, there is nothing wrong with moving your stop to halfway up the flag and see if it breaks on this attempt. Just don't get greedy and have a green trade turn red on you.
  • #246,180
  • Aug 17, 2010 5:20am Aug 17, 2010 5:20am
Quoting bbakker
RPI figures will be hit with the VAT increase in January, but that is next year!
.

Actually the clever bit is that it won't as comparison as this January saw a similar increase. So statistically speaking there will not be a year on year increase in Jan. Clever accounting really putting the increase then.
285 traders viewing now, 2 are registered:
,