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  • #961
  • Aug 16, 2010 2:06pm Aug 16, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting flyer415
The link to the revised pdf up to page 64.


http://www.mediafire.com/file/lno6v4...e%20page64.pdf
Great work Flyerr!!
  • #962
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:53pm Aug 16, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting flyer415
The link to the revised pdf up to page 64.


http://www.mediafire.com/file/lno6v4...e%20page64.pdf

MANY MANY THANKS to the Flyer415 !!!!!!!!!!!
  • #963
  • Aug 16, 2010 3:54pm Aug 16, 2010 3:54pm
Thank you once again Flyer
  • #964
  • Aug 16, 2010 5:09pm Aug 16, 2010 5:09pm
Morning Graeme,
Can I ask when we were trading live last night you kept refering to fib level retraces on 5 min chart. Do you add these levels after the end of each 5 min candle? Or do you just have a rough idea in your head?
Regards,
Ben
  • #965
  • Aug 16, 2010 6:26pm Aug 16, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting leggo
Morning Graeme,
Can I ask when we were trading live last night you kept refering to fib level retraces on 5 min chart. Do you add these levels after the end of each 5 min candle? Or do you just have a rough idea in your head?
Regards,
Ben
Good morning, Ben

Good question.

All my personal focal interpretation is done on fly. This is from alot of practice.

If I were to set golden rules about fibs

When price retraces:

33% of previous candle - stronger move that will most likely continue
50% of previous candle - evenly matched buying/selling power
66% of previous candle - stronger opposition power

If you look across any pair, any timeframe, you will notice:

Strongest trend will have less than 33% retrace
Stronger trends will have 33% to 50%
Weaker trends will have 50% to 66% retrace

Basically you are gouging/prodding the selling/buying power to gain a hindsight to what might happen next.

Doesnt happen all the time but most/enough times.

Fibs are not about buying/selling oportunities as most traders believe but it is an indication of buying/selling power. Is the power slowing down or is the opposite power increasing? That is purpose of fibs.

If trend is downwards and price retraces to 50% and then close at 33% of previous candle. That is a stall and the tredning momentum has halted. Alarm bells should be ringing and you should be preparing to phase out your positions.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #966
  • Aug 16, 2010 6:44pm Aug 16, 2010 6:44pm
Thanks Flyer, finally got a copy before it maxed out.

cheers scalpz
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #967
  • Aug 16, 2010 6:54pm Aug 16, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, Ben

Good question.

All my personal focal interpretation is done on fly. This is from alot of practice.

If I were to set golden rules about fibs

When price retraces:

33% of previous candle - stronger move that will most likely continue
50% of previous candle - evenly matched buying/selling power
66% of previous candle - stronger opposition power

If you look across any pair, any timeframe, you will notice:

Strongest trend will have less than 33% retrace
Stronger trends will have 33% to 50%
Weaker...
So when you look to enter after a 50% retrace do you prefer the price to come back to open before you add another position? Or do you try and get in as it heads back to the open so your entry is on the wick?
Thanks for your time
Ben
  • #968
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:16pm Aug 16, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting leggo
So when you look to enter after a 50% retrace do you prefer the price to come back to open before you add another position? Or do you try and get in as it heads back to the open so your entry is on the wick?
Thanks for your time
Ben

Good question.

This is where pros and learners get divided.

Learners will enter what they believe is mechanical trading and will 'just' enter at the sight of 50%. They will close if they think its not working. Wrong.

I prefer to watch the 50% get tested which in my interpretation is:

Struggle to pierce 50% with momentum

and this applies to all areas of s/r (including .00)

When price drops, I must see other traders (momentum) also acknowledging what I believe as well for a much higher chance of moving my SL to BE at the very least. This is where pros and learners get divided.

Learners will enter cause its at 50%
Pros will enter after looking at what happens at 50% or any other valued s/r areas.

Traders must interpret price action properly to be successful. Price action is basically gouging/prodding the selling/buying power that is happening in the market on the screen.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #969
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:38pm Aug 16, 2010 8:38pm
It deeply worries me that alot of traders know that price action is important however not doing anything about it.

The statement 'price action is king' is everywhere in this forum but I dont think it is completely understood by all. Even if it was acknowledged, traders are looking elsewhere for an 'easier' answer and there isnt if you truly believe price action is king.

Interpreting price action through your own personal interpretation requires actual live viewing of price at 5min timeframe. You need to clearly mark on the chart with .00 and other s/r areas and watch what happens. I would say after 50 live viewings you will have a good grasp.

You do not need special eyes to know a good momentum.

Good momentum is a clear pierce through the s/r lines. But we are interested in what happens after. Is there other traders also joining in with the break?

Volatile breakouts are the safest way to enter the market lower timeframe. It has the highest percentage of succesful trade.

Volatile breakouts are my bread and butter.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #970
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:40pm Aug 16, 2010 8:40pm
Hi Graeme,
Thank you so much. Sorry to clog the thread up but can I ask just one more question? You said that the trend is stronger if the retrace is only to 33% but both You and Joe prefer 50% retest for your entries. I just wondered the reason for this.
Thanks and Regards,
Ben

P.S. I have learnt more in the last week trading the 5 min timeframe than in the previous 8 months of forex. It is hard going at times but I know once I master this then any system I implement will succeed.
  • #971
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:57pm Aug 16, 2010 8:57pm
Quoting leggo
Hi Graeme,
Thank you so much. Sorry to clog the thread up but can I ask just one more question? You said that the trend is stronger if the retrace is only to 33% but both You and Joe prefer 50% retest for your entries. I just wondered the reason for this.
Thanks and Regards,
Ben

P.S. I have learnt more in the last week trading the 5 min timeframe than in the previous 8 months of forex. It is hard going at times but I know once I master this then any system I implement will succeed.
Good question.

Joe has more mechanical approach to myself. He would enter price without any personal interpretation on 5minute chart. His strength is in the increasing number of his positions and taking an advantage of a trend to its maximum capacity.

Personally, Im very different to Joe and I honestly have better success rate with my entries. I always always always prefer to have bare minimum drawdown. That is my mentality.

I do trade higher timeframes which has drawdowns that most traders would consider large however it is relatively small to what Im trying to achieve on the higher timeframe with a bigger goal.

50% fib is where most retail traders are watching and it is a strong 'psychological level.' Remember that I always try to piggyback ride and obviously it would be at areas where there is the most attention from others.

All trends start first at lower timeframe so it is very useful to master price action on 5min chart.

However, positions on lower timeframe has lower success rate as the random price fluctuation will take you out more often than the higher timeframe.

Lower timeframe = smaller losses but more number of random losses
Higher timeframe = larger losses but less number of random losses

Its give and take. Which one do you choose?

I believe its always better to learn from smaller timeframe and apply the success over to higher timeframe because you will have much more chances on the lower timeframe to demo your skill.

Methods that work on lower timeframe should also be working on higher timeframe with the exact same effect but just bigger in scale.

Hope my detailed explanation clears some of the confusion.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #972
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:02pm Aug 16, 2010 9:02pm
Thanks Graeme,
I think another great advantage of learning on the lower timeframe is that once you move to the higher time frame you still can zoom in and stack positions with more skill.
regards,
Ben
  • #973
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:43pm Aug 16, 2010 9:43pm
Today is a good example of what I meant in my prior post with regards to market selection. Scanning through my list, I have flagged the following:

- aud/jpy, look for long probes on a break above 76.94
- eur/jpy, look for long probes on a break above 110.29
- gbp/jpy, bracket long or short beyond range of 132.80 - 134.85
- aud/usd, longs break above 0.8997
- eur/usd, longs break above 1.2873
- gbp/usd, longs break above 1.5702
- usd/cad, shorts break below 1.0352

I would like to ask if this sort of thing is fairly common to Graeme. What I notice is that my trade ideas are all very related to one another (longs on some yen crosses, also longs for those same usd related pairs). This troubles me somewhat, but maybe it is because I am quite used to focusing on a single market and somehow feel this over exposes me....I don't know. Maybe I am too 'busy' because I did take longs on aud/usd, eur/usd, and gbp/usd last night and shorts on eur/jpy. All pairs do have 1 or more positions still alive and at BE. I guess I'm trying to pile things on early before things get moving too far in my favor should they continue - do you know what I mean?

With kind regards,
MK
  • #974
  • Edited 10:40pm Aug 16, 2010 10:20pm | Edited 10:40pm
I appreciate the time you have spent on your thread Graeme. I think you may have helped me and many others with a few 'missing links' with trading.

I have attached a picture that I hope will help you illustrate some of the concepts that you have introduced.

Thanks again!

Dan

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 195 KB

The additional legs I've taken here are at the breakout of the candle marked on the 5min chart.
Next addition was made at .9000 using a buy stop. I then immediatly moved to BE and I'm looking to enter at the .9015 if price keeps moving quickly.

.9000 has already been taken out at BE.

I missed the start on this move about two hours earlier. I was on a 5 hour drive. When I got home price had moved a hundred pips up from my one remaining 'soldier' from yesterday. And so my millipede begins. ..
If the trades hold then great if not - I'll try again!
  • #975
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:23pm Aug 16, 2010 10:23pm
Hi Graeme,
I missed this breakout last night because I wasn't trading this currency. I have posted 5 min chart with the places where I would have stacked. If you traded this can you let the forum know if you were more or less aggresive with your stacking. I know you are a busy man so there is no rush for this, I just thought it might help us on our stacking.
Kind Regards,
Ben
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad5.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #976
  • Edited 11:26pm Aug 16, 2010 11:15pm | Edited 11:26pm
Hi Graeme,

Perhaps you missed my question. If you already explained this then I apologize for missing it or not remembering.

I have been staring at these charts now for a few days and I cannot understand how you manage to trade your system during the Asian session. Especially the 5min but even if you are trading 1h/4h. Volatility, breakouts, momentum etc rarely seem to happen during the asian session. Some of the Jpy pairs have reasonable activity as you had previously stated but it's still nothing compared to the activity during London. Just looking back the past few weeks, when there are some signs of life in the Asian session, the London session quite often reverses whatever gains or losses the Asians session has and then some. I just don't see how you can get positions to consistenly survive this unless you are trading the London session.

What am I missing? I would love to trade the Asian session as the time frame is much more convenient for me compared to London.
  • #977
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:40pm Aug 16, 2010 11:40pm
Quoting flyer415
The link to the revised pdf up to page 64.


http://www.mediafire.com/file/lno6v4...e%20page64.pdf
Hi Flyer...

Anyone else having trouble downloading this Pdf? I downloaded it once and it tells me it's a corupt file. Tried to download again and I can't get it to download from the host server.

Any suggestions???
  • #978
  • Aug 17, 2010 12:16am Aug 17, 2010 12:16am
Quoting pip_daddy
Hi Graeme,

Perhaps you missed my question. If you already explained this then I apologize for missing it or not remembering.

What am I missing? I would love to trade the Asian session as the time frame is much more convenient for me compared to London.
Hi pip_daddy

If I may attempt a reasonable answer to your question I would like to say that the 'session' does not matter. From my experience (win or lose) big moves can and will start anytime.
Dan
  • #979
  • Aug 17, 2010 12:58am Aug 17, 2010 12:58am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Flyer...

Anyone else having trouble downloading this Pdf? I downloaded it once and it tells me it's a corupt file. Tried to download again and I can't get it to download from the host server.

Any suggestions???
Ozzie,

I managed to download it ok this morning. If Flyer doesn't reply to your question then PM me and I'm sure we can find a way for me to get you a copy.
  • #980
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:07am Aug 17, 2010 1:07am
Quoting flyer415
The link to the revised pdf up to page 64.


http://www.mediafire.com/file/lno6v4...e%20page64.pdf
many thx flyer !
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