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  • #901
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:48pm Aug 15, 2010 6:48pm
we might see a move at the change of next 4H candle.. midday fwiw?? i'm watching...
  • #902
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:48pm Aug 15, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting pipEASY
eur/usd

2 sells, 1 buy.

See how price stalls/lingers around 1.27500. That is not momentum.

If there was a stack of sell limit orders on 1.27500 then it would be a large bold candle down.

I wouldnt touch this.

Oh dear... wick bounce @ 1.27391

Rmemeber wicks?
This is very confusing to me.

Why are you trading both sides of the EURUSD from a M5 chart during the Asian session? You started with sells tonight and then changed to buys a few minutes later. So, your discussion on the first page of the Monthly/Weekly/Daily trends means very little to your entry strategy? Really, you are just looking for short-term momentum in which you will hopefully find a few trades that will "stick" for long term growth. You've already taken over 10 trades on EURUSD alone...that seems like many more trades than you mentioned previously for one day, let alone in one hour.

There is no need to reply...I do not want to distract you and your followers from your trading. Best of luck with your trades.
  • #903
  • Edited 7:26pm Aug 15, 2010 7:01pm | Edited 7:26pm
Quoting zznbrm
This is very confusing to me.

Why are you trading both sides of the EURUSD from a M5 chart during the Asian session? You started with sells tonight and then changed to buys a few minutes later. So, your discussion on the first page of the Monthly/Weekly/Daily trends means very little to your entry strategy? Really, you are just looking for short-term momentum in which you will hopefully find a few trades that will "stick" for long term growth. You've already taken over 10 trades on EURUSD alone...that seems like many more trades than you mentioned...
ok.

I have no intention to contribute to your learning seeing the nature of your post.

I took the trades as there was momentum available which is quiet rare during asian session and I was present at the computer.

8 entries per day is worked out from the average number of entries i performed over the last 2 years. It varies day to day. Soemdays I have 1 entry while somedays I may have more than 10.

I took both buy and sell from s/r breaks and momentum stalls.

Asian session is open price of the daily candle which I look forward to as open prices have a greater probability of surviving for the long term.

Trends start from 5min charts as well as daily, 4hr.

Perhaps if you were confused you should ask questions without throwing around blatant assumptions.

No offence taken and I also wish you well in your trading.

Graeme
  • #904
  • Edited 7:33pm Aug 15, 2010 7:07pm | Edited 7:33pm
Thanks for the commentary Graeme. Very interesting to see your thoughts in real time as I watch the market.
  • #905
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:10pm Aug 15, 2010 7:10pm
Cable back at 1.5575, was support, now could become resistance. Will see how this one pans out.
  • #906
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:22pm Aug 15, 2010 7:22pm
Graeme, thanks for the live play, very enlightening indeed. I enjoyed that!

  • #907
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:29pm Aug 15, 2010 7:29pm
Master Graeme:

why not take profit of a small leg and mount half dozen 32" LCDs around your table? you can afford that, hoho.

Quoting pipEASY
!!!!!!!

missed it.....

thats why never focus on one pair...

edit: unless you have 4 heads and 20 eyes... keep moving around the charts
  • #908
  • Aug 15, 2010 8:38pm Aug 15, 2010 8:38pm
Hi Graeme,

I was just looking at the EURUSD 1hr chart from the start of the day on Monday. You talked about seeing momentum on the EURO, I'm trying to figure out what you saw that gave you the indication there was momentum and where you started to place trades. On the hour chart there is a break down from a small area of consolidation that only last 1 candle. Is that the area you placed your trades in?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1hr momentum 16.08.10.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #909
  • Edited 9:19pm Aug 15, 2010 8:50pm | Edited 9:19pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Graeme,

I was just looking at the EURUSD 1hr chart from the start of the day on Monday. You talked about seeing momentum on the EURO, I'm trying to figure out what you saw that gave you the indication there was momentum and where you started to place trades. On the hour chart there is a break down from a small area of consolidation that only last 1 candle. Is that the area you placed your trades in?
Good morning, Dave

Good question.

I was particularly interested in eur/usd this morning as there was a very large move last week.

I noticed that 1.27500 was also 4hr/1hr support. As we all know I only trade when there is a volatile breakout. Volatile breakouts are usually price that breaks the support/resistance and closes far away from it. If it retraces back that is not a volatile breakout and I will close out with a small loss.

Im not sure if you witnessed the movement this morning but from 9am sydney time, after first 7 5min candles you can clearly see mini range breakout followed by clear downward movement. The very first 5min candle is a flying buddha and that was my first position. What I saw at first break of 1.27500 was a single long bodied down candle which clearly pierced the support. This move would have been very large if the price didnt stall at 1.27325 but continued on as a volatile breakout.

I knew it was all over when the price stalled and the double wick bounce at 1.27327 15minutes after on the 5 minute chart. This double wick prompted me to enter buys.

Now we can see that it was a failed breakout.

I will show some charts later tonight on volatile breakouts. Best breakouts are the ones that travel very far from s/r in one single candle. These are usually the beginning/resume of a trend.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #910
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:06pm Aug 15, 2010 9:06pm
Hi Graeme,
Could you please share with us when you move the stop to B.E. on the 5 min chart? Do you just do it from feel or do you have a set number of pips?
Regards,
Ben
  • #911
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:18pm Aug 15, 2010 9:18pm
Quoting leggo
Hi Graeme,
Could you please share with us when you move the stop to B.E. on the 5 min chart? Do you just do it from feel or do you have a set number of pips?
Regards,
Ben
Good question, Ben

5minute charts are very fast and furious.

Its like driving very fast. You do not need to look behind you or the side mirrors as long as you know your direction/destination very well and drive straight.

I do not have set number of pips, its all personal discretion however when price stalls I will move most positions to BE.

Sometimes when price stalls I close the last 1,2 positions that are in very small profits to minimize my exposure.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #912
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:22pm Aug 15, 2010 9:22pm
that was very "real" breakout at that moment. i actually followed eurjpy, and buy and sell both, but both didn't work out, just exit with same reason of yours.

i love these LIVE trading examples. i LIVE them too.

Quoting pipEASY

Now we can see that it was a failed breakout.

I will show some charts later tonight on volatile breakouts. Best breakouts are the ones that travel very far from s/r in one single candle. These are usually the beginning/resume of a trend.
  • #913
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:36pm Aug 15, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting charvo
that was very "real" breakout at that moment. i actually followed eurjpy, and buy and sell both, but both didn't work out, just exit with same reason of yours.

i love these LIVE trading examples. i LIVE them too.
Good afternoon, charvo

Im glad that my live comments helped out.

Yes, you are correct. That breakout was an official momentum/volatile breakout for that moment and I too was looking forward to it.

There will always be more price action at the next s/r or .00.

Thank you to Froggy10 as well who helped out.

Unfortunately I missed out on eur/jpy as I was glued at eur/usd.

Traders must be moving around from pair to pair.

Edit: I reassure myself mentally by knowing that it was a possible golden opportunity that I could have profited big but unfortunately due to fluctuations I have no control I ended up with -12 pip loss.

I still have buy positions on both eur/usd and gbp/aud alive as we speak

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #914
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:03pm Aug 15, 2010 10:03pm
Seems to me this style of trading could do better during the London session since that is the most volatile period. Sidney time I believe it's early evening at the start of London.

Other than maybe not wanting to trade in the evening, is there a reason you prefer trading during the Asian session?
  • #915
  • Aug 15, 2010 10:15pm Aug 15, 2010 10:15pm
Hi Graeme,

I was looking for a range around 1.2750 and the price to subsequently breakout out in whichever direction momentum presented itself.

I chose this course of action at 1.2750 because it was friday's low and I wanted to test out how the friday wick would behave.

To be honest I was particularly interested on a long at this point. I am wondering if I am forming too much of an expectation for a long entry at 1.2750 based on the last few daily candles.

I am also currently holding a long position on USD/CAD (1.03) and there seems to be resistance at 1.05, a flying buddha has formed several days ago but the price has yet to move significantly from that area. I will be looking to short USD/CAD around 1.04. I'd like to hear your opinion on this.

I feel like I'm a slower trader and my goal is to stack a position or 2 on every daily candle as a trend develops.

I personally think this is reasonable but I'd like to know what you think because I take a lot of value from your posts.
  • #916
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:59pm Aug 15, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting pipEASY
Just before I go out for the day

Traders often get discouraged at the number of losing trades. Pros dont care at the 'amount' of losses however ensure that each winning trades are stretched out to cover more than all the losses combined. This is the required mindframe.

Edit: Fantastic job Ben. Keep watching the markets for the next volatile breakout.

Sincerely,

Graeme
Thanks for your good lessons...
Just to share what I discovered.

It seems to me that it's difficult (for new traders) to maintain a cool head when suffering from a string of losses if trader have a fixed R:R like 1:3 ... the reason is because, for new traders, high accuracy is something almost impossible to do. Lose 3 times and trader will start to question his ability.

Only by having a large R:R ratio .. 1:50 or 1:100 (or 1:infinity) can new traders feel comfortable during losing streaks ... They feel they can lose many-many times and still come out ahead in the long run.
  • #917
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:27am Aug 16, 2010 12:27am
pip_daddy - true. Many volatile breakouts happen during uk/us. However when your present at your computer during an asian session and there is a valid volatile breakout there is no reason not to take it.

mjotic - Nice observation. There is no such thing as wrong observation however there is huge difference meaning between 'observation' and 'expectation.' Dont expect anything in forex and you will be fine. I was looking forward to 1.27500 this morning as I know volatile breakout would mean alot of profit and this comes from witnessing/watching many many many breakouts. I have a slightly different mentality to yourself which is choosing to arrive at the action earlier if possible without increasing my risk.

The first 4 hour candle was definitely a valid breakout (with momentum) however it failed and retraced back. I was positioning myself for a greater reward if the breakout was successful and hoping it would continue to close at the bottom of the now wick of that 4hr candle at 1.27300. Most likely 8+ positions comfortably.

usd/cad has a great move last week. Series of flying buddhas at 1.04700 should tell you that price is stalling and having difficulty to continue upwards. The most optimum entry was a volatile breakout at 1.04460 to break the 3 wick touch. I have a sell position just there and another 1.04400 as this was 50% fib of previous candle. Both positions closed at BE this morning and I lost nothing for the opportunity.

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/3140/aa1y.png

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/7070/aa1.png

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/8232/aa1k.png
  • #918
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:30am Aug 16, 2010 12:30am
Quoting luqmanz
Thanks for your good lessons...
Just to share what I discovered.

It seems to me that it's difficult (for new traders) to maintain a cool head when suffering from a string of losses if trader have a fixed R:R like 1:3 ... the reason is because, for new traders, high accuracy is something almost impossible to do. Lose 3 times and trader will start to question his ability.

Only by having a large R:R ratio .. 1:50 or 1:100 (or 1:infinity) can new traders feel comfortable during losing streaks ... They feel they can lose many-many times and still...
Good.

You are correct. Just to add more to it, alot of traders are anxious to close a winning position to re-coup their previous losses they had but more importantly they are not sure what they are expecting.

The above trader definitely does not have '1 thing'

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #919
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:36am Aug 16, 2010 12:36am
Just been taken into my first "volatile breakout" on Chf/Jpy 4hr chart. Lets see how it works out. If it closes above I will zoom in to 5 min and try some stacking of positions.
Regards,
Ben
  • #920
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:45am Aug 16, 2010 12:45am
Why did I trade/watch eur/usd this morning?

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/1583/aa1m.png

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/1378/aa1z.png

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/3340/aa1f.png
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