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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,661
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:28am Aug 15, 2010 11:28am
Quoting Geelong_Cats
haha, i didn't see you posted that article already. shorting dollar-yen seems like the right move here...

.....that's how to do it! The more I look at a daily, I see absolutely no sign of trend change......there was profit taking last week in asian currencies, shorts will probably come back in this week.
  • #17,662
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:57pm Aug 15, 2010 1:57pm
IMO LONG USDJPY @86.21 TP: 87.09 SL: 85.40.
Based on 4H chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Murrey Math on every TF + Divergences on higher TFs
  • #17,663
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:04pm Aug 15, 2010 7:04pm
Funny stuff.
1. GDP numbers come out, below conensus.
2. 10 min passes by without much happening.
3. Suddently the Yen starts strengthening in all pairs.
  • #17,664
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:05pm Aug 15, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting Mikispag
IMO LONG USDJPY @86.21 TP: 87.09 SL: 85.40.
Based on 4H chart.

good luck.....
  • #17,665
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:07pm Aug 15, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting Rush
Funny stuff.
1. GDP numbers come out, below conensus.
2. 10 min passes by without much happening.
3. Suddently the Yen starts strengthening in all pairs.

nothing funny.......bad numbers= risk aversion=uj selling

hold on to your hats.....
  • #17,666
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:24pm Aug 15, 2010 7:24pm
Of course its risk-aversion, but that it should even strengthen against the dollar a little harder to get.
  • #17,667
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:02pm Aug 15, 2010 9:02pm
more news on the yen

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...38P3JfCA&pos=3
  • #17,668
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:06pm Aug 15, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting Rush
Of course its risk-aversion, but that it should even strengthen against the dollar a little harder to get.

japanese yen trumps usd when risk aversion is in play......
  • #17,669
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:19am Aug 16, 2010 11:19am
will this hold ....?
Attached Image
  • #17,670
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:05pm Aug 16, 2010 12:05pm
wow... it could be double bottom 2morrow,,,,

hoping it won't break 84,73.... would be japan disaster...
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,671
  • Aug 16, 2010 12:07pm Aug 16, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting TheArcher
will this hold ....?
if no BOJ intervention, yen will go to 80 i think...
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,672
  • Aug 16, 2010 7:07pm Aug 16, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting Deanchain
if no BOJ intervention, yen will go to 80 i think...
BOJ intervention won't stop it from going to 80. you might see a short uptick for few days, but the long term trend is down.
  • #17,673
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:01pm Aug 16, 2010 8:01pm
I haven't been here for a few days, but it seems that nothing much has changed.....the downtrend is still strong and there is no sign of a reversal at this stage. Japan can't pull off intervention on it's own, and other central banks don't seem to keen, so I guess tha Japan's only hope to the continuing strength of the Yen is more verbal intervention, which won't work with such a strong downtrend.

I'm not building longs at the moment, I see the Yen in the low 80's as a very real possibility now.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,674
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:06pm Aug 16, 2010 8:06pm
Quoting realjumper
I haven't been here for a few days, but it seems that nothing much has changed.....
It hasn't changed too much which is kind of nice. Playing both ends of it with Stops especially tight when going Short.

Quote
.....the downtrend is still strong

Yes it is. The weekly chart is downright scary. When will it end?
  • #17,675
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:37pm Aug 16, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting realjumper
I haven't been here for a few days, but it seems that nothing much has changed.....the downtrend is still strong and there is no sign of a reversal at this stage. Japan can't pull off intervention on it's own, and other central banks don't seem to keen, so I guess tha Japan's only hope to the continuing strength of the Yen is more verbal intervention, which won't work with such a strong downtrend.

I'm not building longs at the moment, I see the Yen in the low 80's as a very real possibility now.

Absoluteley, let deflation begin
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  • #17,676
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:41pm Aug 16, 2010 8:41pm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2201...fx-devaluation

Interesting POV.
  • #17,677
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:03pm Aug 16, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting realjumper
I haven't been here for a few days, but it seems that nothing much has changed.....the downtrend is still strong and there is no sign of a reversal at this stage. Japan can't pull off intervention on it's own, and other central banks don't seem to keen, so I guess tha Japan's only hope to the continuing strength of the Yen is more verbal intervention, which won't work with such a strong downtrend.

I'm not building longs at the moment, I see the Yen in the low 80's as a very real possibility now.
But the yen bear-suit still hangs in the closet I presume?
  • #17,678
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:19pm Aug 16, 2010 9:19pm
Quoting Rush
But the yen bear-suit still hangs in the closet I presume?
Indeed.....just waiting!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,679
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:27pm Aug 16, 2010 9:27pm
Quoting Geelong_Cats
BOJ intervention won't stop it from going to 80. you might see a short uptick for few days, but the long term trend is down.
I still believe Japan will do something before yen goes to 80.
It will climb at least to 89 or 90 first, base on my chart, except if there is a very long downward spike...

It is a very high possiblility to have double bottom around 84,73..
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,680
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:40pm Aug 16, 2010 9:40pm
Quoting Deanchain
before yen goes to 80.
It will climb at least to 89 or 90 first,
I feel the same way. I can't offer any TA to support my views but sometimes ...how does one explain it? For better or worse my small long term trade that I am trying to forget about is based on basically the same sentiment.
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