Cable Update (GBPUSD)

lol i was kinda wondering the same thing i didnt wanna say anything .....

I joined your club bro, got an infraction ...........

Hey brother, if your ind. view will be different from my, then - just, play a little with customizing it and it will be super!
If there any questions about it, you can ask me, i will try to help all i can!

Also it will be nice to hear your opinion about it, after you try it on coming week.

Best wishes!

Im with you on this, i think we are going to break this trend line, to whatever degree, i got short begining of last week as we were "drifting" up on low volume, and formed an inside bar under the psychological level of 1.6000, added to the position on the way down, took the first position off +300pips. The chances last weeks low wont be violated is very very unlikely, but not impossible. A large gap to the down side would not surprize me come sunday night.

I hope that you are right, since I am short also.

I do believe that there will be a gap down on Sunday, however as we know gaps almost always get filled unless there is a very active market or some dramatic event which continues in the direction of the gap. However, given the fact that this is August, the gap will get filled, if slowly and is likely to be followed by a spike to 1.6 then a drop down and down.

I am likely to close my current trade if there is a nice gap down then short again from a higher level.

do you believe there will be a gap down or do you hope that will be the case?

I actually believe that this will occur which is why I left a short open over the weekend. I am also hoping that it will occur, becaues I left a short open over the weekend.

There are several reasons for this, one of which is the low risk appetite which seems to get worse with low volume. This is the only possible explanation for appreciation of USD in the face of such dismal numbers coming from the US.

There has also been lackluster support, at best, for GBP, so that the chance of its getting above 1.6 is low. The movement late on Friday was clearly southward and the stochastics in every time frame are headed south at the close. RSI is also showing weakness.

I think that the odds are very much in my favour, but then one can still never be sure.

Ok...thanks for the explanation...

I see it differently though...

Trade Well!

This is a clear example of someone who doesn't know what he/she's doing...but HOPE is where the money is...lol
E

O the mirical of not sleeping you know haha.
just to add my 2cents.

I actially thought, friday was going to be a up day,but if indeed monday gaps down, it wont be much, and it heading towards double bottoms on 4h so you know i am thinking monday might be up then sell anywhere late monday or tuesday, now speculating on which dates are not a science, infact far from it and mere speculation, but thts my view on it, but it def has to retrace, so in my eyes, the position to be open short over the weekend might not have healded the best opertunaty, there might be a strong liklyhood of a gap up if there is a gap.

So it would be best to be awake at sunday open.
Be afrade, be very afrade.
(yet again mind my spelling)

An Argentina-like Economic Crisis
The United States’ economic decline precariously resembles Argentina’s economic collapse, which started in 1998 and landed Argentina in a depression by the end of 2000. What began in Argentina as a recession mushroomed into a full-fledged depression due to bad economic and monetary policy. The Obama administration and its congressional Democrat lackeys are on the precipice of following Argentina’s disastrous economic and monetary policy decisions.

Arguably, the United States economy has been in a two-year-long recession, and while some may posit that the country has started an economic recovery, others suspect the country will plummet into a deeper recession, or perhaps a depression. In the past two years, the United States government instituted economic and/or monetary policies detrimental to American’s short- and long-term economic prosperity.

- $700-billion TARP bill.
- $787-billion economic stimulus bill the president deemed necessary to keep unemployment under 8%.
- $410-billion Omnibus bill with 9,000 pork-barrel projects.
- $1.3-trillion deficit in fiscal year 2009.
- $1.4-trillion deficit estimated for fiscal year 2010.
- $1 trillion or more for a health care bill that the majority of Americans didn’t want.
- Auto industry bailout with complete disregard to the bankruptcy laws, which turned the U.S. government into an equity owner and granted an ownership stake to the United Auto Workers union.
- $500-billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
- $145-billion bailout of Greece.
- Billions spent by the Federal Reserve to purchase toxic assets.
- $10.6-trillion dollar public debt the day Obama took the oath of office. In nineteen months, the public debt stands at $13.3-trillion (a 25% increase).

In early 2000, Argentinean President Fernando de la Rúa’s government evaluated options to end the recession. According to a 2003 report issued by the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress, the de la Rúa government evaluated several options and settled on raising tax rates as the solution:

The De la Rúa government was worried about the federal budget deficit, which was 2.5 percent of GDP in 1999. The government thought reducing the budget deficit would instill confidence in government finances, reducing interest rates and thereby spurring the economy, which was showing signs of recovery in late 1999. Among the options for reducing the deficit, cutting spending was politically difficult; the government doubted that cutting tax rates would spur enough growth in the short term to offset lost revenues; it did not wish to abandon the convertibility system and simply print money[.]

That left only one option: raising tax rates. President de la Rúa secured approval for three big tax increases, effective January 2000, April 2001, and August 2001.

Argentina’s economy continued to shrink throughout 2000. In April 2001, the Argentinean government proposed cutting spending by 4.5 billion pesos over a two-year period. Public outrage ensued, and special interest groups protested. Furthermore, government monetary policies manipulated current valuations, causing fear and instability, and debt policies such as refinancing debt at higher interest rates exacerbated a deteriorating economy. In late 2001, a newly elected government took control, and the Joint Economic Report summarized their actions:

In a series of blunders that made matters even worse, from December 2001 to early 2002, succeeding governments undermined property rights by freezing bank deposits; defaulting on the government’s foreign debt in a thoughtless manner; ending the Argentine peso’s longstanding link to the dollar; forcibly converting dollar deposits and loans into Argentine pesos at unfavorable rates; and voiding contracts

Coincidentally, the United States is in a two-year-long recession, and Obama and congressional Democrats intend on letting the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of the year. The outstanding public debt stands at $13.3 trillion. Any opposing viewpoints from Republicans or conservatives on cutting spending or addressing entitlement programs are met with media outrage, accusations of racism, and accusations that Republicans and conservatives are coldhearted people incapable of compassion or benevolence.

The Obama government’s actions ominously mirror the actions and the timing of the Argentinean government in early 2000, when the first of three tax increases was instituted. Higher unemployment, more debt, falling wages, and eventually inflation ensued. Moreover, the Obama administration and the mainstream media deceive the American people regarding the impact of the Bush tax cuts. Obama and the MSM repeatedly espouse that only tax rates for those rich Americans in the top income tax bracket will increase.

…. to continue reading click here!

Good day traders , rather interesting area here for the ole gbp, as usual lol. The 272 and 618 fib extension levels of the last abc pattern on the daily were hit and we have had a pull back to the 50% retracement area of that move . Its also this quarters R1 level and just barely above or below some longer trendlines depending on how they are drawn. Smaller timeframes seem to be attempting to build a base here but being only 70 pips or so above last quarters high and the daily sma 200 seems they would get tested as we are this close and with the 618 retracement level being just below that, it only takes a spike lol . Move may have been interupted by the weekend guess we will know when the mkt opens . Previous longer term holds I had were exited at the 272 and 618 levels Will wait to see what happens when and if we get to the 200 sma . Day trades flat for the weekend of course, may everyones pips be positive , cheers all

As A side note and it is the weekend here is an update from some of last week ends posts about what had happened and what may happen after a very nice up week in the gbp with seemly no end in sight , it would appear at the moment that it was stopped cold again at least took back a week and a half worth of gains cheers all

Very nice forexlion, person with brains.

WIthout going much into politics, for not wanting to be viewd being a racist, man its so annoying, i am like the nicest person but for merly suggesting a unpleasant idea most ppl just quickly view you as a racist, but anyway i said i wasnt going to go into politics haha.

The liberal mind is a perverted mind lol unpractical imaginative fiction aurtor, most traders would be able to say tht to us a liberal must be to a conservative, like a economist to a trader, speaks about alot of things, this and tht and mind you uses the biggest words in the dictionary but the ideas being talkd about is the most impractical and insane ideas one can think of.

Having tht in mind ill forcast the dollar with the following examples, and which tipe of party would give america a stronger dollar.

Liberals solitions:
Immegration: create no borders on the world or atleast their country.
Unemployment: pay unemployd ppl for not having a work, or create new jobs in the form of 20ppl doing the same job just costing the tax payer more.
Racism: Affirmative action, while not realising by handing ppl something on a platter you agknowlege they are not capable of doing it themselfs(yes ppl consider tht racist of me, but i tend to think the liberal is the racist.)
Also note thts more out of tax payers pocket.
Local govt. budget: Realises there is not enough money to deliver services so tax ppl more to upkeep their healthy pay checks.

Wow tht all sounds great in theory lets look at the conservative.
Immegration: enforce strong imagration laws(just note less influx of diff racial groups also directly causes less racism, so conservatives get blamed for racism, take note arizona)
Unemployent: will already be drasticly reduced, by less influx of foreign nationals, this will also most prob give greater strenght to dollar in long run making space for more new commers to start a bussiness, reducing unemployment even more.
Also unemployment checks should be cut to encourage ppl to go look for work yet again not only deminishing unemployment but directly giving the country more money to spend on infrastructure.
Racism: Conservatives dont give a flying ... if you accuse him of being a racist, damn how dare you, but anyway disband affermative action because tht law is racist on itself, and if needed sees the need for ppl to govern themself and grants them a independant homeland(yet again this would be seen as racist, but haha, obv its done to prevent racism completly, its not possible to discriminate against whites if there arnt any around you so win win, and plus your freedom of speach increases dramatically because no need for pollitically correctness, because there is nothing to be discriminatory about on a racial level)
Local govt. budget: Cut on own pay checks, but the above steps already would give them more financial backing so more drastic steps would not be needed.

So just compair americas dept do liberalism, the more liberal the more dept.
So forexfactory should have a news release every election the more conservative or republican i dont really know to stronger the long term out look for the dollar.

Yet again politics are like trading, guys tht have to most practical experience and practical ideas have the biggest probabilaty of actially implying tht succesfully.

Please ppl note i do have a heart i do believe everyone should be treated by respect and everyone has rights, but i think liberals just talk to much, its like me talking about lets say a black man then i tell my friend this black man named Eddie was standing infront of me so he commented about racial diffrences and yeah we had quite the chat you know pretty nice chap, the liberal friend whould correct me and say he is not black he is a human my word really now thts something new so i was talking to a non human, obv i knew the man was a human, but i am not blind the man is still black no need to cry bout it right, i wouldnt cry bout being white why should he, so the liberal whould conduct millions of studies trying to prove whites and blacks are the same comming to the conclusion both are human whooo nice find liberal friend(yet again the liberal more racist needing to prove diff race groups are the same), but i mean thts off the point there are obv diff my skin is whites his black thts a diff,our forfathers also have diff backgrounds making us more diff.
Or the other classic men and woman are the same, whaaaaaaaat??? damn liberals really just are blind, yes obv we are both humans,but im a man and shes a woman, genetically i am stronger, faster and physically more superior than most woman(note some bodybuilder woman look real strong lol) so please tell me how you can say we are the same???

I view the human species this way(because we are nt a human race because of obv facts haha) tht if you look at a lion and a cat they both part of the cat family, but hallo there is a very obv difference, yet i do not think household cats are going to survive very long in the wild, is that in anyway diff from the racial and gender isue, no not at all, wht would be the solution to the cats prob dont put him in the wild.

Gender dont make woman physically compete with men.
Race ,seperate homelands or just teach racial awarness, and no affermative action.
thts the most logic solutions no the liberal will force the cat to live among the lions and continue to do so and imply laws thts impractical behond belief wht prob the lion may not eat, but then conduct studies y the lion dies, then coming to the conclusion tht its hunger but still enforcing the law the lion may not eat, then they would just lift their hands

Damn is it just me tht gets annoyd at impractical liberal do gooders or does anyone share my opinion between liberal ideas and currency weakness.
Please ppl if i come across racist, please re read wht i said, infact, i do often adress ppl thts rude based on colour of skin because all deserve to be treated with respect no matter what.
Also please mind my spelling haha, damn i am not going to spell check this .

Ok enjoy your day, man tht last part of forexlions post really jsut struck a nerve now.

Sorry if i spamd the thread haha, damn just felt i had to discuss alittle fundementals to you know on babypips when i was learning they taught me tht fundementals also play a role lol.
back to technical annalysis, lets all hope monday is a up day

Ok daily outlook.
Nice trendline, also oldtops and the recent top before the latest up move seem to form a nice area for support, inverted hammer formd, and for the indicator wizzards, RSI make lower low than prev low yet prev low was lower so there is wht i believe they call it hidden divergence.
Anybody agree with my annalysis tht the daily its either going to form double tops or atleast just a nice 123 pattern or maby just continue up completly, but tht monday might be a up day.

shorter term view 15mn:
GU has made a weaker down slope.
It also could not break though the support consilidation area.
yet again for the indicator wizzords, it has made triple bottoms with a slight up slope, but RSI showing a new low indicating divergence for it being oversold.
Plus if you compair 4h to 15min the 4h clearly is up where the 15min min has a down move also time frame divergence, so monday you might actially look for a few pips up or just get ready to position for a larger down move if its comming.

Goodluck hope my annalysis helps anyone

forgot the chart haha

Your analysis doesn't help at all. You are confused yourself... either support the long or short, not both. and by the way 4h is still down, we dropped 100 pips on friday, how is it clearly up.

good analysis, i liked your rsi 7 setup, very realistic

your logic is also good, let the end decision remain on the reader.