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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #244,101
  • Aug 7, 2010 12:11pm Aug 7, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
thanks bud..take yur pick
alriiight bro...I'll go for the scotch on the rocks and cognac...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #244,102
  • Aug 7, 2010 12:29pm Aug 7, 2010 12:29pm
Hey doc glad to see your compression charts are getting some discussion , I will say tho I will stick with what we have discussed before , it all comes back to what makes the market move . Quite simple really, buying and selling that is the only thing that makes a market move and you have to have more of one than the other , it doesent move because a line gets hit or an indicater says this or that . Those all come into play after the action that will make the reaction take place. You like the word compression ,well in thinking of a spring as in coil spring some springs are designed to absorb compression( springs on a car to make it ride smoother) some are designed to release compression ( like a BB gun you cock it to compress the spring to propel the bb ) Some are designed to do both. When applyed to the market when you have a reaction due to the action you still have to figure out what just happened to apply the right spring choice lol . Was it somebody buying or somebody selling . Fridays nfp headline print terrible, the ones buying earlier already knew that. Private sector jobs the ones that pay for all the goverment bullshit increased from last month hence the rise , the gbpnews was just the boys cocking the bb gun to shoot higher . Price only came down to the weekly support level 1.5860 - 1.5880 on the gbp news release a level that was getting bought all week and then shot up on the nfp release.Somebody mentioned finding a benchmark, the gbp has been going up for 56 or 57 days now , tht may be a day or two off but in that time it has been below a 200sma on the hourly chart 7 or 8 days maybe on this run up , not a bad bench mark when trying to catch a longer run . Obviously day traders are on a much shorter time frame as far as time in a trade but as cloggie has pointed out over and over you better know what the longer trend is and that is a must wether you use trendlines , channels , a whole bunch of ma s stacked on top each other. If you watch doc s compression charts long enough you will see the shorter time frames ie 5 min and below are usually working on getting to their compressed stage sometime close to and going into the frankie open which is also the time a lot of the action (buying or selling) is going to take place that we must react to in order to make money . On the longer time frames when they get to their compressed stage start looking at what levels you are at and you will find it has been stuck at a significant level or rangeing at certain levels for a while waiting for the next big action which will cause the big reaction to what action just took place. As far as benchmarks as magix has pointed out the 200 ema s work good , I use an sma a little more and I dont watch all the time frames he does any how too long of post already 4 hour chart posted with 200 sma from hourly and the 200 sma on the 4 hour cheers all
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  • #244,103
  • Aug 7, 2010 12:50pm Aug 7, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting cloggie
I am wondering and researching exactly the same, is there a consistant trigger that we could deduce from MAC's. I am playing around a bit with them too and am keeping a MAC setup on a side screen for next week to see how and when these triggers occur. It interests me so much because it is price driven, it is a sudden deviation from the average, like you said how does the nul hypothesis fit in to the deviation. Price as we know does move from a consolidation on every TF with often some good momentum bars, I like momentum bars because it justifies...
Ha ha I told doc to just think of a child on a pogo stick , they jump on it make a few hops to get their balance then they start out in a direction , when you get below or above them all just think of the mas as being the spring compressing for their next hop when price gets into them all, the big thing is figuring out which direction as they make a couple hops to get their balance to start in a direction
  • #244,104
  • Aug 7, 2010 12:59pm Aug 7, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting digger1
the big thing is figuring out which direction as they make a couple hops to get their balance to start in a direction

And that is what is interesting me. What can we read in them? Can it function as a trigger for direction on range breakout, could you use them to like you said dampen the pogo moves. Could you as Wormy says read them as a signal for KAbooms? I am not discounting them just yet and I am going to watch them for the next few months to see if there is something to them.

I am a big fan of price compressions and use them all the time to make sure I enter in the right direction on a range break, to judge the validity of a break and to judge the move after a break, now could the MAC compression assist me in that?
  • #244,105
  • Aug 7, 2010 1:21pm Aug 7, 2010 1:21pm
food for thought ... what is the correction ..this up move or the down move to 1.4400 ?

reason for this is weekly volumes on 6b at 1.4300 area were DOUBLE a 2008 lows that took us to 1.7000

is there a chance that 1.7000 is exceeded ? of course there is until we see a weekly change

In regards to Gu range , historically gu range is about 120 pip per day and with the VIX dropping sub 22 volatility in the market is settling down . so those 300 pip days may be rare now.

here is a weekly chart with levels of s/r on it .... till that tl is broken we can assume 6300 / 6500 then 1.7000 ... I know sound nuts but after that low vol test 4 weeks back I have been very bullish gu

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Quoting XTrade
Hey Dr D....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,106
  • Aug 7, 2010 1:22pm Aug 7, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting cloggie
And that is what is interesting me. What can we read in them? Can it function as a trigger for direction on range breakout, could you use them to like you said dampen the pogo moves. Could you as Wormy says read them as a signal for KAbooms? I am not discounting them just yet and I am going to watch them for the next few months to see if there is something to them.

I am a big fan of price compressions and use them all the time to make sure I enter in the right direction on a range break, now could the MAC compression assist me in that?
When I was looking at them It was just before my spring planting got started so the study got interupted lol, Now as I day trade mostly I was going thru som pretty short time frames to figure out what worked best for day trading and finding a decent time frame to catch some of the bigger moves during the day but was still synchronized or in time with the longet term charts , sorry cloggs my mind works in equipment or tactor terms , when I say synchronized I think of like a combine harvesting there is a 100 different belts and pulleys and gearboxs that all have to be timed just rite to work togather at a certain engine rpm if 1 of them is out of time or if you dont run the engine at the right rpm a lousy job of harvesting costs you money , compared to not watching the right combination of time frames togather costs you the best entries and exits cost you money trading . Now equipment you can almost feel or hear when something isint quite rite but you will fid you are down to some pretty small time frames to pin point entries and exits , but you still must be aware of wht is happening on the longer term charts .
  • #244,107
  • Aug 7, 2010 1:25pm Aug 7, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
...Also most importantly:

since the component MAs are inherently lagging creatures we need to find evidence that the results this phenomenon is delivering aren't deceptive (i.e. having predictive value and not just trailing the price action) and nonambiguent when applied purely on their own


...
A couple of years ago I worked with some people who used the 'rainbow' ma's as we called them, also guppy ma's. We used fib numbers: 8, 13, 21, 34 etc for the ma's themselves. It seemed exciting at first (and very pretty charts) but after awhile the conclusion was that by the time the ma's gave a clear signal, the action had passed ...
However ... that doesn't mean they might not work, as Cloggie said, maybe just need to find the right ones for the pair you're trading .. or maybe some other component was missing.
I'll be interested to see where this goes .. & if you start a new thread, good idea.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #244,108
  • Aug 7, 2010 1:26pm Aug 7, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting Precap2
I don't know what the professionals here think, but our Lady failed to convincingly move away from 5960 area after worse than expected NFP. I don't look to long until 1.6000 is broken convincingly. I set my eyes on 1.5850 once more.
I'm newbie here but have a look again.

PreCap2
of course retraces are there , but as noted last week the dips are being bought.

nfp was not worse than expected ...

'they' being market manipulators issued - 137 k jobs , these were temp jobs. In fact the 70,000 odd private sector jobs created as considered very good news for the market , and nice of OB to highlight this 1.5 hours before market close for a lovely 15 point rise on the es to close just under key resistance .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,109
  • Aug 7, 2010 1:48pm Aug 7, 2010 1:48pm
Hey malc , the traders that were tradeing seen that just after it was printed the big dogs had that figured out before it was printed , it didnt jump just because the least qualified in any room supposed leader said so an hour an a half before mkt close , of course the moron was going to mention it lol
  • #244,110
  • Aug 7, 2010 1:55pm Aug 7, 2010 1:55pm
Quoting digger1
Hey malc , the traders that were tradeing seen that just after it was printed the big dogs had that figured out before it was printed , it didnt jump just because the least qualified in any room supposed leader said so an hour an a half before mkt close , of course the moron was going to mention it lol
was a simple long ...

stopping volume on the 30 min then a shake out right into 1105 . was to easy for a 3 point stop only.

es has been very simple to trade using vsa on a 10 / 15 and 30 and is what I am mostly trading these days as the timing suits me better
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #244,111
  • Aug 7, 2010 2:04pm Aug 7, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
was a simple long ...

stopping volume on the 30 min then a shake out right into 1105 . was to easy for a 3 point stop only.

es has been very simple to trade using vsa on a 10 / 15 and 30 and is what I am mostly trading these days as the timing suits me better
lol I would think so , should have been able to see that coming a mile away , glad you caught it
  • #244,112
  • Aug 7, 2010 2:39pm Aug 7, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting 4xStar
A couple of years ago I worked with some people who used the 'rainbow' ma's as we called them, also guppy ma's....
I hear what you're saying 4x...that's exactly where I am coming from...these little thingies are very tempting...I try to stay clear of them usually...

BUT...this time...Doc managed to re-ignite my curiosity...so I'm willing to give it a go in terms of statistical scrutiny....

However, since that's on Doc's domain, he's gonna have to be the initiator of such a thread...

I will be more than happy to contribute...

Take care and Have a great weekend, 4x.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #244,113
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:01pm Aug 7, 2010 3:01pm
http://nsa17.casimages.com/img/2010/...9590895691.gif

other analysis on my blog http://foxtrade-foxtrade.blogspot.com/
  • #244,114
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:06pm Aug 7, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting jimmyloz
http://nsa17.casimages.com/img/2010/...9590895691.gif

other analysis on my blog http://foxtrade-foxtrade.blogspot.com/
the last time this happened, stock markets crashed.
long dollar!!
Thank You
  • #244,115
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:11pm Aug 7, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14

here is a weekly chart with levels of s/r on it .... till that tl is broken we can assume 6300 / 6500 then 1.7000 ... I know sound nuts but after that low vol test 4 weeks back I have been very bullish gu

Attachment
i called 1.7 level 2 months back when it was at 1.45 and got laughed at. so no malcolm, what you're saying now doesn't sound nuts. it's "only" 1000 pips away
Thank You
  • #244,116
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:11pm Aug 7, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting wormboy
the last time this happened, stock markets crashed.
long dollar!!
maybe they'll hold off for a month
  • #244,117
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:13pm Aug 7, 2010 3:13pm
Hey cloggie , found an old template I was watching it on only with a 200 sma of the time frame added to it for a benchmark (the big fat white one) it is a 30 second time frame. A personal battle of mine was always the price scaling on a small time frame , sometimes what looks to be a huge move is only a few pips and sometimes what looked to be a small move was 40 pips or more, something that happens on most time frames depending on the size of a move the 30 sec chart also has the daily camirillo pivots on it which for the most part will contain the days price action doesent venture to far out side the 4 levels , , the sell off at the gbp news took it down to the daily L4 level and the buy back up took it above the H4 level but price came almost back to it . Have put the 30 second chart in with doc s mas on it plus the benchmark and also a 30 minute chart with same trading period marked out, to the right of thick yellow vertical line , the 30 mi chart has a hulls average on it, malc s suppestion by the way which when all is said and done in a days time runs pretty close to what the 200 sma does on the 30 second chart and tht is about as far as my study got , interupted by planting season lol, just remember it was only for catching the bigger moves of a day and not to enter for a 1000 pip run cheers all .
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  • #244,118
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:15pm Aug 7, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting digger1
Hey cloggie , found an old template I was watching it on only with a 200 sma of the time frame added to it for a benchmark (the big fat white one) it is a 30 second time frame. A personal battle of mine was always the price scaling on a small time frame , sometimes what looks to be a huge move is only a few pips and sometimes what looked to be a small move was 40 pips or more, something that happens on most time frames depending on the size of a move the 30 sec chart also has the daily camirillo pivots on it which for the most part the days price...
what the hell you doing with charts on a weekend bro lol
don't ask me why i'm here, it's 4:30 am & i cant sleep so i have my excuse.
Thank You
  • #244,119
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:18pm Aug 7, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting mfoste1
maybe they'll hold off for a month
who's they??
everyone's super bullish now, time to look the other way.
Thank You
  • #244,120
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:23pm Aug 7, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting wormboy
what the hell you doing with charts on a weekend bro lol
don't ask me why i'm here, it's 4:30 am & i cant sleep so i have my excuse.
ah ha ha , dont know really kids are at their friends slow day on the farm 1st one in a while , excavating caught up atm , wife is shopping aaarrrgggg so going to need pips to pay for it lol
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