Cable Update (GBPUSD)

the 38.2% of the current i/day hi-lo is at top of the previous 1hr swing lo zone 9asian lo's) which is the first upside obstacle to the pairing...ie potential sbr

G/L

i see. I am trying to learn this also.
Kinda like the naked trading things.. other than woman..
But i still couldnt find the entry for this system.. maybe gonna explore more and see how it goes

Returning to earlier NFP discussion, For so many NFP day is either Hero or Zero...if you get it right you are Hero and if on wrong side - Zero...It's really just gambling if opening a position ahead of the data unles already in a longer term position. Anything can happen on data releases and price can even defy conventional wisdom, ie what we expect to happen on the data print. This is particularly the case re the NFP release.

So may variables, some listed below

a. Headline no,
b. Manuf jobs element
c. private jobs element
d. Un-emp rate
e. Av hourly earninbgs (I read somewhere that every 0.1% accounts for 100k jobs ?)

And of course then there is how far from foreacts these come and the revisions from previous month. All in all it's impossible to say with any certainty before the event what will happen to any given instrument in the immediate post data and extended post data period.

All we know is what historical precedent tells us and what scenarion has the greatest probability (not certainty) of a given market reaction.

Bring it on- Lol ! With volatility comes opportunity !!!

I am experamenting with setting a pending order 5 pips under the box for a short. That's how i got in this one. Should have set one before running to the store earlier and I would have caught more of that move. I had another box on my chart that I got in off a break of.

Its called 'double bottom'.

hit trailing +3

too slow market

ok

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/1...9gcr4txtgf.jpg

I got stuck in the puddle at 15857, just cut my losses and got out until the river starts to flow again lol...

The 9am (uk time) big 1hr bearish thrust engulfing candle was a 'master engulfing' candle, ie it engulfed more than 1 previous candle body-16 to be precise...will this turn out to be significant ??

G/L

[quote=bbmac;3927217]The 9am (uk time) big 1hr bearish thrust engulfing candle was a 'master engulfing' candle, ie it engulfed more than 1 previous candle body-16 to be precise...will this turn out to be significant ??

Dont know ..but what a brilliant explanation of "engulfing". Thankyou

The thing I like about this method as a newbie is that whilst the price is in the box I can ignore it, I feel no need to trade, it gives me space to look at all the other wealth of information that I need to look at to work out trend, targets, and also time to do my real work, etc

soon.....

Hadn't thought of it in those terms, thanks. Some newbie?!

i doubt

cable will hardly move its azz

let c ...n dun be suprice if it goes to 1.5750 -1.5650....tonight

Morning all.

You hit the nail on the head there, it focuses your mind on the current price and it's interaction with levels and SR's. It breaks down the vast amount of information to manageable levels.

However it is slighlty losing its original purpose from last week. I came up with it originally to trade the breakout from the London and continuously stack up the boxes with the trend to identify when the London break starts to consolidate. That consolidation phase is key to see if the box breaks out as a continuation or whether London breaks it back. Then the NY comes around and you can use the same principle for the NY break, catch the breakout and stay in as long as the stack of boxes continues to break in the direction of the original breakout.

Now some are seeing boxes everywhere and use it to trade any and all breakout. That is fine to use at any point during the day, however at that point you should only trade the break of a consolidation area in the direction of the trend on the higher TF's. So right now we have an area of consolidation that has formed after the London break moved us down, this would be an ideal location to see whether the consolidation leads to a reversal or a continuation of the trend set by London.

Cable moves in fairly set stages during the normal trading day, finding them makes trading Cable very profitable. I have alluded to them several times this year: London break, consolidation, continuation/reversal, NY break, NY sets the hi/lo, NY fills the range, TY retraces. These little boxes, or areas of interest, or consolidation areas between SR's, whatever you call it are very good to help you identify whether Cable is following the norm and which way it is going.

Boxes around news is also very profitable, set the range based on the M15 before, which is usually a pretty good indicator of what the big boys know about the news release and is often a positioning for the news release, then wait for the news whipsaw to complete, envelop the entire news moves and trade the break, it again focuses you to see whether the news reverses the trend or continues it after it has settled down a bit.

The whole point of boxes was to help traders identify PA and its interaction. A big part of box trading is knowing candle and price patterns. It also shows you how Cable generally gives you a fake 'n shake, a fakeout of a break that 80-90% of the time brings price back within the range, don't adjust your range for the fakeouts, leave them outside your range box so it remains visual for you in future.

Look at some of 4X's charts she has posted in the last week, they are a series of boxes, a series of ranges that she has identified and is able to use to judge whether to stay in a trade or get out. Her charts also clearly show where the tops and bottoms are for her trades. Since using this 4X has managed to get 75+ pips a day out of her, if you can do that you will succeed in this game.

Box trading is a very simple solution for the biggest problem facing newbies: getting out of a trade too soon. Continuous breakouts will keep you in a trade for as long as the trend on the lower TF continues. You will end up with trades that make you 50+ pips each and once you get out, you will know that a reversal is imminent and you feel confident taking your profits there.

As setup and entry guide it also keeps you from picking tops and bottoms, you won't enter a trade until the direction is confirmed, yes you will miss out on the first 10-15 pips, but who cares if you catch the next 20-50 consistantly.

Price never moves in a straight line and identifying the possible areas of continuation/consolidation and how price reacts within it keeps you out of possible losers and allows you to let your winners run.

Caveat: simply taking every break of a box as a trade will not be a winning strategy, you will need to learn how the PA interacts with your chosen levels, and you will need to learn to pick the right levels.

Agreed.. kaboom will happen tonite..

nice kaboom .........

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/4742/87307650.gif

Banking on NFP? It's a HUGE nuisance as usual

just joking grashid

but it was a nice trade, my EA pulled it off smartly