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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #243,721
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:13am Aug 6, 2010 1:13am
Quoting XTrade
I am doubting that. I am expecting a poor #.

Should be some nice action around this report tomorrow.

We will see.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010...obs-jobs-jobs/
  • #243,722
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:17am Aug 6, 2010 1:17am
http://nsa16.casimages.com/img/2010/...3524115073.jpg

http://nsa17.casimages.com/img/2010/...4600218036.jpg

http://nsa17.casimages.com/img/2010/...5956420942.jpg

other analysis on my blog http://foxtrade-foxtrade.blogspot.com/

  • #243,723
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:20am Aug 6, 2010 1:20am
Quoting primzvicious
this how contrarian trade

with a very tight stop of course
sl @ BE free trade now...
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #243,724
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:27am Aug 6, 2010 1:27am
Quoting primzvicious
sl @ BE free trade now...
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #243,725
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:31am Aug 6, 2010 1:31am
Quoting primzvicious
sl @ BE free trade now...
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/7...14a5a26257.gif
  • #243,726
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:37am Aug 6, 2010 1:37am
Quoting forexlion
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/7...14a5a26257.gif
tee hee...im fishing real big fish

will try again at 25 and 69...
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #243,727
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:41am Aug 6, 2010 1:41am
Happy Friday everyone...

as expected barrier options containing price in a 100+pip strait since tuesday...

price now saturated within both upper and lower ranges (see chart)...sufficient energy has been accumulated to prepare for a breakout...after a slight bearish tendency on wednesday we're seeing renewed bullish vigor today probing the upper range...

Note that price found support three times at the midline of the broadening top...this should keep the preliminary posture positive going into the numbers...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: M30.gif Size: 9 KB
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #243,728
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:43am Aug 6, 2010 1:43am
Quoting primzvicious
tee hee...im fishing real big fish

will try again at 25 and 69...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohf7GyDlQ8I

  • #243,729
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:44am Aug 6, 2010 1:44am
Quoting primzvicious
tee hee...im fishing real big fish

will try again at 25 and 69...
lol, not knocking you by any means but in being a contrain trader the majority of the hours you spend trading end up just like that , get in, move stop to break even if you get a chance then watch your stp get hit move up the ladder and do it again and see the same result , tough way to make much , a ranging mkt you can do alrite any how at least you got your stop to break even on that one
  • #243,730
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:48am Aug 6, 2010 1:48am
Quoting digger1
lol, not knocking you by any means but in being a contrain trader the majority of the hours you spend trading end up just like that , get in, move stop to break even if you get a chance then watch your stp get hit move up the ladder and do it again and see the same result , tough way to make much , a ranging mkt you can do alrite any how at least you got your stop to break even on that one
thx for the suggest boss
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #243,731
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:04am Aug 6, 2010 2:04am
Quoting primzvicious
thx for the suggest boss
Personally if that is the way you trade i would advise closing half and then move your SL to B/E that way you book some profits and leave some on the table to see how it plays out.
  • #243,732
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:06am Aug 6, 2010 2:06am
Quoting Dayboy001
Personally if that is the way you trade i would advise closing half and then move your SL to B/E that way you book some profits and leave some on the table to see how it plays out.
yes would say 2/3s even that way when you get stpped at break even you walk away with a little , you get the right levels and you can do alrite at it , but much better finding the trend and rolling with it for sure
  • #243,733
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:13am Aug 6, 2010 2:13am
G/M all.

Yesterday's Hi was a H on 1hr folowed by a HL a LH, HL and now a H...so still pretty rangy on that t/f, bullish-mixed would sum it up at this time...main trend 4hr + remains up/bullish.

Uk data at 0830am gmt with the monthly circus that is U.s Nfp etc at 1230pm gmt

G/L
ex member
  • #243,734
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:14am Aug 6, 2010 2:14am
Quoting Dayboy001
Personally if that is the way you trade i would advise closing half and then move your SL to B/E that way you book some profits and leave some on the table to see how it plays out.
trust me i know how to play
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #243,735
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:21am Aug 6, 2010 2:21am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Happy Friday everyone...

Note that price found support three times at the midline of the broadening top...this should keep the preliminary posture positive going into the numbers...
Happy Friday too. Nice analysis there. My chart looks very different but I think the end result could be the same. The area I shaded as a potential test (1.5560-5570) does actually go back a long time but I didn't show it on the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gu_4h_pre_nfp.png Size: 57 KB
  • #243,736
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:23am Aug 6, 2010 2:23am
Re NFP later

Keenly anticipated still by market even though it's worth as an accurate measure is somewhat devalued....this time more so than prev recent months as may influence U's's Fomc to introduce more Qe, 'QEII' as it is termed, at their next meeting if payrolls are weak...

This site and others goinmg with -65k headline number forecast against -125k last month...Much focus will be on the 'private payrolls' sectrion of the report and manuf jobs fxcm saying +90k private payrolls against +83k last mth and +10k manuf payrolls against +9k last mth, Un-emp rate forecast to rise slightly again to 9.6% from 9.5%.

So difficult to predict as it depens on so many factors/components now as to how market will react..but generally if the number (s) are weak and the un-emp rate goes up and say there is a negative revision to last mth, that would likely see some $ selling...the opposite being the case on strong/positive numbers.

It's a lottery and I for one will not be in a position ahead of it, unless that stop is at b/e or better. Prefer to see market reaction and see if it is is definate on defiante data...but 1st lo/sell 1st p/back -or- sell 1st hi/buy 1st pullback would be the preferred route if that scenario plays out.

G/L
ex member
  • #243,737
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:27am Aug 6, 2010 2:27am
Ahead of U.s Nfp data Uk's Ind and manuf prod and PPi numbers are due at 0830am gmt...again weak prints could see some £ weakness...conversely good prints could see some £ strength. ? That is the conventional wisdom but remember, anything can happen - Lol !!

G/L
ex member
  • #243,738
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:32am Aug 6, 2010 2:32am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Alrite, profit cash'd on GJ 100 pips @ 137...pending for gold...expecting 1200....

Nice free ride in the last 2 days on EU,GU,GJ each 100 pips..might be on gold as well for 8 points...

I would love to see a positive NFP!!

ta
ams


Quoting ams
Buying GJ 136xx and gold 1193 for scalps :-)

Reason...fake breakout imo.
  • #243,739
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:47am Aug 6, 2010 2:47am
Quoting bbmac
Re NFP later

Keenly anticipated still by market even though it's worth as an accurate measure is somewhat devalued....this time more so than prev recent months as may influence U's's Fomc to introduce more Qe, 'QEII' as it is termed, at their next meeting if payrolls are weak...

This site and others goinmg with -65k headline number forecast against -125k last month...Much focus will be on the 'private payrolls' sectrion of the report and manuf jobs fxcm saying +90k private payrolls against +83k last mth and +10k manuf payrolls against +9k...
It is indeed a lottery....

To follow on from a point you made within that post, it has been interesting to see risk assets (namely commodities and equities) remaining bid of late in the face of deteriorating economic data from the US, with the disappointing initial jobless claims data from yesterday being the latest in a string of poor numbers.

Some credit for this relative resilience must be attributed to the pleasing second quarter earnings from the US. However, by and large, the market's current logic seems to deduce that the worse the economic numbers are, the greater the chances of another round of QE from the Fed. This theory has gained a great deal of traction from the weak inflation numbers of late.

And, as we have seen from 2009, QE does have a positive effect on equities, commodities and bonds, as capital moves away from a crowded market in US Treasuries and seeks better returns elsewhere.

From a theoretical point of view, a further round of QE, or even the increased likelihood of such an outcome, should be detrimental to the fortunes of the dollar (as we are seeing now?) - something which is an added benefit from the point of view of policymakers in the US, as they strive to re-balance the economy away from a reliance on debt-fueled consumption.
  • #243,740
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:55am Aug 6, 2010 2:55am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Spot on Paul...

I also expect to see situation mimic'd in other areas as well..for long term bulls it might come as a shock but it will eventually happen. If BIG daddy (largest economy) goes down it takes everyone else with it to an extent. Thing to note is, BOE is not withdrawing QE, they have left the option open
For EU, they never did one except recently where they bought Greece debt. One shoe has dropped wait for the other. It's a WAR of currencies. US expect cheap dollar so jobs / manufacturing can be created in the US instead of wealth transfer to other countries due to "expensive" dollar. Germany doesn't want strong Euro as they can't compete with China and supply the rest of the world. For UK I don't know where the hell they stand...financial capital means all should be hunky dory but this drives job away due to currency strength and inflation (if it goes down) at the same time attracts investment.

If BOE raise the IR, it will be a disaster. Inflation is due to animic currency not demand. People below the poverty line can't stop eating or live life. May be that's what they want :-)


ta
ams




Quoting gammase1
It is indeed a lottery.......
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