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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #243,141
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:50am Aug 4, 2010 9:50am
Quoting chitindu
u mean if it bounces back from 1.5861 it will continue its uptrend

I am not saying that, all I said was what levels were important here for the ones already in a short. IF you look at my earlier post I gave a "if-then-if" scenario, breaking one would automatically lead to the next, which it did to the pip. Now going long here in anticipation of a bounce is just too high risk when price hasn't told us yet it is going to bounce.
  • #243,142
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:52am Aug 4, 2010 9:52am
Quoting cloggie
It is your money and your strategy, a long here does not fit mine. You are not alone though, plenty of others see this as a discount in anticipation of the break on H4, while some see this as a confirmation of the major resistance on H4. I just play it one level at a time without anticipating either. The pattern that is being formed here with this move down has not completed yet.
i so wish that people would read back through Cloggies posts . He has and continues to state everything you would ever want to know about intraday trading. Its just up to us to research and get up to speed with him. He is one of the clearest and most honest voices anywhere.
I'm fairly new to all this but have progressed rapidly through reading everything of Cloggies and several others...i hope the several others know that i am clapping and applauding them also. Just take time to read back through the thread. Trust me it works
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #243,143
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:53am Aug 4, 2010 9:53am
Quoting reflex
Good site for the basics
http://www.babypips.com/
Good Luck
Ill also have a look at this site

Thanks[/quote]

Babypips course is very good for the basics .. but stay away from their forum, it is not well controlled & you can easily be led astray. FF much better (with all its faults...)
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #243,144
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:55am Aug 4, 2010 9:55am
Quoting Vasile
Buy from here tp 1.60 sl 1.5760
I don't think that price will break ex-resistance and top border of ex-channel at 1.5825, maybe it wouldn't be touched. So I think it will be nice position
you know, the dx had just made a pretty big bounce from 80.52 & currently is @81.07. The nearest resistance if this bounce continues is @81.45
Cable might not stop here mate.

Trade safe & good luck
Thank You
  • #243,145
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:55am Aug 4, 2010 9:55am
Forecast of the week, 08/02–08/06
The pair is trading along an uptrend within the “B-B+” channel, and it is above the “a” supporting trendline, having the upside target seen at resistance level 1.5895. In case the pair rises above that resistance, it may keep on rising up to level 1.6000, but further rising is very unlikely after that. For this reason we may expect a correction to develop from levels 1.5895–1.6000, and if the pair then retreats below 1.5550, a downtrend will start with the downside target set at support level 1.5285, and intermediate resistance will be met at 1.5448 on the way down.


Forecast monthly, August.
The pair is trading along the “B-B+” uptrend (the “a” wave) having the upside target seen at resistance level 1.5895. In case it rises above level 1.6000, the uptrend will resume and the next upside target will be set at resistance level 1.6400. Yet for the time being we may expect the trend to turn from level 1.5895 as the “b” downside correctional wave goes in under condition that the pair drops below level 1.5448, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.5050. After the pair gets to that level we may expect the uptrend to resume as the “c” wave goes in with the upside target set at resistance 1.6200.



Forecast quarterly, August–October
After the pair rose above level 1.5400 it quit from the “E-E+” downtrend. At this moment an uptrend is being developed with the upside target set at resistance levels 1.6420–1.6850. This trend is supposed to evolve within the “a” upside wave with the upside target set at resistance level 1.5895, next within the “b” wave with the downside target set at support level 1.5050 and finally within the “c” wave with the upside target set at destination levels 1.6420–1.6850. If the market keeps on rising above level 1.6850, a “double bottom” figure will be formed and the upside momentum will grow stronger, which will set the next upside target at resistance level 1.8530, and then at 1.9800 (just a prospective).
Otherwise, if the pair fails rising above level 1.6850, it will start developing sideways trend in a form of “triangle” figure. Then the downside wave will start within that trend having the downside target set at level 1.4600
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-weekly.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #243,146
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:01am Aug 4, 2010 10:01am
Quoting Privet
Forecast of the week, 08/02–08/06
The pair is trading along an uptrend within the “B-B+” channel, and it is above the “a” supporting trendline, having the upside target seen at resistance level 1.5895. In case the pair rises above that resistance, it may keep on rising up to level 1.6000, but further rising is very unlikely after that. For this reason we may expect a correction to develop from levels 1.5895–1.6000, and if the pair then retreats below 1.5550, a downtrend will start with the downside target set at support...

Not sure where you copied this from, but it is as useless as a chocolate teacup. We did break 5895 to the top so your bull scenario you described should be playing out now which it doesn't. So you either need to find a 3rd scenario to cover the failure of the break or just throw the whole darn thing in the bin.

When putting up and trading long term scenario plays you need to think of each and every level and what price could do at them and how you could recognise it and trade of it. The outlook you posted is just too simple and does not take into account the inevitable retrace on the daily that does not necessarily signify a trend reversal.
  • #243,147
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:11am Aug 4, 2010 10:11am
Quoting jimmyloz
http://nsa16.casimages.com/img/2010/...4556916778.jpg

other analysis on my blog http://foxtrade-foxtrade.blogspot.com/

the evening star is born ?
  • #243,148
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:13am Aug 4, 2010 10:13am
My outlook for the next few days is simple, we either set a new high on the daily and continue or we break the low and retrace to the 50. Third option is that both will hold and we have another day of ranging.

Done.
  • #243,149
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:22am Aug 4, 2010 10:22am
Quoting cloggie
My outlook for the next few days is simple, we either set a new high on the daily and continue or we break the low and retrace to the 50. Third option is that both will hold and we have another day of ranging.

Done.
From which low are you starting your fib retracement?
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #243,150
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:23am Aug 4, 2010 10:23am
Quoting 4xStar
From which low are you starting your fib retracement?
5550 as an initial, because it coincides with the weekly.
  • #243,151
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:26am Aug 4, 2010 10:26am
Quoting cloggie
When putting up and trading long term scenario plays you need to think of each and every level and what price could do at them and how you could recognise it and trade of it.
This sentence contains everything you need to know to trade successfully. The problem is, it takes time, patience & experience (thousands of chart views) to understand it .. and after that .. to 'see' it in real time.

That's what the boxes are for .. a crutch to help identify these levels and what price is doing, and what happens next. No short-cuts, just pladding day by day & gaining more experience. But I know it will be worth it in the end.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #243,152
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:26am Aug 4, 2010 10:26am
so they had 4 yards of exotics overhead...where is the other leg?...maybe just below here....?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #243,153
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:28am Aug 4, 2010 10:28am
Quoting cloggie
My outlook for the next few days is simple, we either set a new high on the daily and continue or we break the low and retrace to the 50. Third option is that both will hold and we have another day of ranging.

Done.
I expect to break the low and retrace to 50 and maybe more.Lets see .Good luck.
  • #243,154
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:29am Aug 4, 2010 10:29am
Quoting cloggie
5550 as an initial, because it coincides with the weekly.
OK, thanks .. that is Friday's low. Hard to believe only a few days ago how much she has moved!
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #243,155
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:30am Aug 4, 2010 10:30am
Quoting honeybhi
I expect to break the low and retrace to 50 and maybe more.Lets see .Good luck.
I'm (finally) learning to expect nothing .. just follow price wherever she leads...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #243,156
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:30am Aug 4, 2010 10:30am
Quoting 4xStar
OK, thanks .. that is Friday's low. Hard to believe only a few days ago how much she has moved!

It is Tuesday's low.
  • #243,157
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:31am Aug 4, 2010 10:31am
Quoting GlobalMacro
so they had 4 yards of exotics overhead...where is the other leg?...maybe just below here....?

Just about here would make perfect sense.
  • #243,158
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:32am Aug 4, 2010 10:32am
would be around 15755...cloggie what about 15820
is that previous res and now support .sir

Quoting cloggie
5550 as an initial, because it coincides with the weekly.
We cannot direct the winds but we can adjust our sail.
  • #243,159
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:33am Aug 4, 2010 10:33am
Quoting posterboy
would be around 15755...cloggie what about 15820
is that previous res and now support .sir
5755 would be my target and 5820 was never support on the daily.

Caveat: nothing is confirmed yet and trading the retrace would just be a gamble right now. I carry a trade of the resistance on H4, as does Wormy, but getting in here as a long term trade is too late without proper confirmation in the price.
  • #243,160
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:33am Aug 4, 2010 10:33am
Can someone please help me to post a chart .i think i have something quite exciting on one of my systems. Could explain it in terms of emas but would be so much better if i could post the chart.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
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