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DanUK's Intraday Experiment

  • #201
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:04am Aug 4, 2010 4:04am
i saw this trade and passed up on it because it was back to back conflicting climaxes.

like commander said, for me an ideal volume trade, an A+ trade, is where there is a volume climax and the next bar goes opposite without hesitation and closes near the top of the climax price bar or atleast nearbouts the half of the volume price bar.

i will then go long or short at the break of this 2nd bar.

one another thing, climax does not mean only a reversal. it also means continuation.

i have taken 2 trades last week, which were continuation of a climax.for me for a continuation trade, the second price bar should close as a good full green or red bar in continuation of the climax bar and then i will take a break of this bar.

this second set up is not an A+ set up.

Quoting bez3000
Guys i have attached a chart from this morning i think is a volume trade or possibly two?:

 

  1. Bar 1 is pushed on red bar through RN only to come straight back down again on bar 2 and closes under pivot, should this be a short?
  2. Or would we take bar 2 as the volume bar as its pushed down through the pivot on a white bar only to come back up on bar 3 and close above the pivot (entry at the top of bar 3?)

Your analysis will help me no end.

  • #202
  • Aug 4, 2010 6:01pm Aug 4, 2010 6:01pm
Hi thought this article may be of interest regarding seasonal volatilaty. http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...-to-trade.aspx
  • #203
  • Aug 5, 2010 8:26am Aug 5, 2010 8:26am
euro buying climax continuation trade today for a 1:1. should be easy to spot.

there is also a buying climax reversal just now which I didnt take.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_15min_aug_2010.png Size: 47 KB
  • #204
  • Aug 12, 2010 9:33am Aug 12, 2010 9:33am
This setup looked interesting today but failed in the end, red volume bar pushing price up through 8000 then came straight back down closing below 8000. I would have expected price to fall but it went up, is this just one of instances it didn't work or am i missing something in the setup?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_15m.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #205
  • Aug 12, 2010 10:48am Aug 12, 2010 10:48am
Quoting bez3000
This setup looked interesting today but failed in the end, red volume bar pushing price up through 8000 then came straight back down closing below 8000. I would have expected price to fall but it went up, is this just one of instances it didn't work or am i missing something in the setup?
Hi bez,

Slightly misinterpreted this one mate... but that's ok, it's just like learning a language; takes a little while to learn all the grammar!

For a selling opportunity you would be looking for a red buying climax at a swing high followed by a lower close (as per the attached chart).

What you had on EU today was actually a signal of prices rising, although it wasn't A+ clear.

You have the red bar - indicating high volume buying at a low and off of the 1.2800 level, I would have then looked to buy the break of the top of that bar however the next bar suggested high volume selling... as price dropped back down on high volume... and that would have put me off a buy, however it did work out in the end. Also, if you look at the two high volume bars in comparison to the previous bar they didn't actually stand out, what you really want is for that high volume setup to be much higher than the previous bars (as in the following example).

Hope that helps a bit!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 61 KB
  • #206
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:07am Aug 12, 2010 11:07am
errr why did you ignore the selling climax volume candle after that buying climax candle. there was a good buy there. i took that for a 1:1 and recovered my losses on the other system. i closed at 1:1 but i think it would have gone to 1:2. i had a migraine attack and hence an early close.

Quoting bez3000
This setup looked interesting today but failed in the end, red volume bar pushing price up through 8000 then came straight back down closing below 8000. I would have expected price to fall but it went up, is this just one of instances it didn't work or am i missing something in the setup?
  • #207
  • Aug 13, 2010 9:38am Aug 13, 2010 9:38am
not many pin bars these days. this was a 2% failure
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_15m_aug2010.png Size: 37 KB
  • #208
  • Aug 13, 2010 11:27am Aug 13, 2010 11:27am
A couple of trades i noticed today, i couldn't trade 15m today but this is my analysis for the day.

EJ:
1) BEOB of R1 and 111.000
2) Pin bar of 110.500
And also the pin bar coolshades pointed out that failed for him.

EU:
Pin bar of 1.2900

Did i miss anything, anyone?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 166 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 167 KB
  • #209
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:02am Aug 17, 2010 1:02am
bez, i would have taken both though i didnt. here is another one. the thing with this system is it takes a lot of time to monitor, a lot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_25m_aug2010.png Size: 35 KB
  • #210
  • Aug 17, 2010 7:41am Aug 17, 2010 7:41am
Quoting coolshades
bez, i would have taken both though i didnt. here is another one. the thing with this system is it takes a lot of time to monitor, a lot
I agree but it is a system that works very well if we had the time to spend on it.

A couple more from today:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_15m.jpg Size: 167 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj_15m.jpg Size: 150 KB
  • #211
  • Aug 17, 2010 10:15am Aug 17, 2010 10:15am
did you take these two? i am on the road the next three days so don't know when i will be able to monitor these charts.

in addition to usdjpy, which other pairs you monitor on 15m?

Quoting bez3000
I agree but it is a system that works very well if we had the time to spend on it.

A couple more from today:
  • #212
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:17am Aug 17, 2010 11:17am
Quoting coolshades
did you take these two? i am on the road the next three days so don't know when i will be able to monitor these charts.

in addition to usdjpy, which other pairs you monitor on 15m?
No been out on the road for work as well so just monitoring them in the evening at the moment, i look at eu, gu, ej.
Another lovely pin just arrived
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #213
  • Aug 17, 2010 12:02pm Aug 17, 2010 12:02pm
Short AUD/USD .9063, S&R + Fibs

Thoughts?

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dusd081710.jpg
  • #214
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:13pm Aug 17, 2010 1:13pm
dunno.. i am actually wondering why i am not long from 9050 onwards! price falied to breach 887, and since then has been upward and has been upward from june/july.

my 50% fib for an upward trend is at 9050ish, off the high of 6/8 and low of 29/7.

btw you are posting this in the wrong thread.

Quoting sam0182
Short AUD/USD .9063, S&R + Fibs

Thoughts?

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dusd081710.jpg
  • #215
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:42pm Aug 17, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting coolshades
dunno.. i am actually wondering why i am not long from 9050 onwards! price falied to breach 887, and since then has been upward and has been upward from june/july.
Quoting coolshades

my 50% fib for an upward trend is at 9050ish, off the high of 6/8 and low of 29/7.

btw you are posting this in the wrong thread.
Interesting, we'll see what happens.

Re: "btw you are posting this in the wrong thread."

Below is taken from page one, post one of this thread...

Quoting DanUK

It's a very simple strategy based on intraday pivot levels, psych levels/round numbers. I am looking to trade off of these levels using VSA and price action setups on the 15M chart.

If there is anyone else following similar setups you are all welcome to join in but I do ask that charts and explanations are posted rather than just a statement of what happened (sold xyz @ 123)!
...
My trade, an intraday short, which included a chart & explanation (per Dan's request), is based primarily upon S&R. Psych levels, round numbers, pivots, fibs, etc. (Dan’s trading cues per this thread) all, IMO, make up S&R, which is what my trade is based upon.

I felt there was a similar trading style between what I implemented in this AUD/USD short and of which Dan, yourself, & others regularly post in this thread.

If I'm way off or am completely misunderstanding this thread, it's posters, etc., I'll happily delete my post and carry on. Cheers.
  • #216
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:18pm Aug 17, 2010 4:18pm
ok.. this thread is primarily about 15m using volume and pivots. yes its an intraday. your post however is more suited to commander's other thread, where we are mixing the trend trading a bit with intraday pa.

when commander recovers from his hangover he will be starting a pureplay pa thread which is perfect for your post.

Quoting sam0182
Interesting, we'll see what happens.

Re: "btw you are posting this in the wrong thread."

Below is taken from page one, post one of this thread...



[color=black][font=Verdana]My trade, an intraday short, which included a chart & explanation (per Dan's request), is based primarily upon S&R. Psych levels, round numbers, pivots, fibs, etc. (Dan’s trading cues per this thread) all, IMO, make...
  • #217
  • Aug 17, 2010 4:27pm Aug 17, 2010 4:27pm
Sure, I appreciate the clarification.

Cheers.

Quoting coolshades
ok.. this thread is primarily about 15m using volume and pivots. yes its an intraday. your post however is more suited to commander's other thread, where we are mixing the trend trading a bit with intraday pa.

when commander recovers from his hangover he will be starting a pureplay pa thread which is perfect for your post.
  • #218
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:25am Sep 14, 2010 1:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=205

Quoting DanUK
For a selling opportunity you would be looking for a red buying climax at a swing high followed by a lower close (as per the attached chart).

What you had on EU today was actually a signal of prices rising, although it wasn't A+ clear.
Quoting DanUK
You have the red bar - indicating high volume buying at a low and off of the 1.2800 level, I would have then looked to buy the break of the top of that bar however the next bar suggested high volume selling... as price dropped back down on high volume... and that would have put me off a buy, however it did work out in the end. Also, if you look at the two high volume bars in comparison to the previous bar they didn't actually stand out, what you really want is for that high volume setup to be much higher than the previous bars (as in the following...
Hi DanUK,

This may be a little late, but I was doing some more reading through your journals to better understand your entry and exit style.

I have noticed that in a few of your (successful) trades you have gone short at a swing high point. And when you have you have gained some decent pips.

I was tracing through and I would of considered going long on some of these. They look like potential retracements....

Can you reconfirm the short setup around these points? Is it simply the volume showing selling and failure of the price to make new highs?

In that posting, if the highs were more above the earlier high point; or price moved upwards - would this of suggested a potential long position?
  • #219
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:09pm Sep 14, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting dmuk
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=205





Hi DanUK,

This may be a little late, but I was doing some more reading through your journals to better understand your entry and exit style.

I have noticed that in a few of your (successful) trades you have gone short at a swing high point. And when you have you have gained some decent pips.

I was tracing through and I would of considered going long on some of these. They look like potential retracements....

Can you reconfirm the short setup around these...
Hi,

I think what you are referring too is a buying climax into resistance? If price is making a swing high and we get a buying climax into it (at a resistance level) and this is followed by a move back down (i.e. in the next candle) it signals a false mark up - i.e. the smart money has pushed price up to trap people into buying when in fact they are about to sell. This is evident because if a large move up into resistance comes with high volume it suggests big money buying but if price then drops it means the big money no longer has interest in pushing prices up - they want it to fall!

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #220
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:20am Sep 19, 2010 9:20am
Quoting DanUK
I think what you are referring too is a buying climax into resistance? If price is making a swing high and we get a buying climax into it (at a resistance level) and this is followed by a move back down (i.e. in the next candle) it signals a false mark up - i.e. the smart money has pushed price up to trap people into buying when in fact they are about to sell. This is evident because if a large move up into resistance comes with high volume it suggests big money buying but if price then drops it means the big money no longer has interest...
Thanks for another reply!

So you are watching a break of support or resistance (the green bullish candle). If the next candle moves above the preceding candle you would look to enter long; or if a move below you would look to go short?

The volume supports the above price action?

When do you take a position? The candle after the break or do you wait for further confirmation? (eg 1st red or 2nd red candle following the bullish green candle? Or later?)

What point to you move/adjust your stop loss?



http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1281628092


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