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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #242,621
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:02am Aug 3, 2010 5:02am
Quoting bbmac
Bottom picking in an uptrend is easier than top picking, conversely top picking in a downtrend such as the move down to 2009's 3505 lo is easier than picking a bottom - Lol !! Ie buy the dips/sell the rallys, is overall a higher probability startegy than sell the tops/buy the bottoms...It all depends where you buy the bottoms and sell the tops of course...
SOOOOOO sorry !...I meant...there is a lot of TOP pickers here....not bottom pickers. (75% of the latest posts are about trying to pick the top...and they almost all contain an "I think" kind of comment

It's clear that bottom picking in an uptrend is far less risky (in my opinion) that top picking in an uptrend.

So the question still remains: How many of you were trying to pick the bottom in 2008 and are still here to talk about it ?
It's all about your stomach lining...
  • #242,622
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:03am Aug 3, 2010 5:03am
Quoting patmarch
There's a lot of bottom pickers here...

I have a question if you guys don't mind...

How many of you guys were there in 2008 trying to catch the bottom ?

I bet not many because they have gone belly up
I have a question for you if you don't mind.
Instead of posting stuff like this, why not you post something of use. If you think that trying to sell here is not going to worth as much as buying, please put up a chart on where you think is a good entry, where you'd place your stop & why.
I have sold & shared why I did so here:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=242555

It's much better to post trade setups before any move instead of posting charts after the fact.

Thanks.
Thank You
  • #242,623
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:04am Aug 3, 2010 5:04am
as soon as (if) price bars clear the 10sma on the median, I will trail the stop one bar behind, well that's the plan anyway.
  • #242,624
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:17am Aug 3, 2010 5:17am
Quoting wormboy
I have a question for you if you don't mind.
Instead of posting stuff like this, why not you post something of use. If you think that trying to sell here is not going to worth as much as buying, please put up a chart on where you think is a good entry, where you'd place your stop & why.
I have sold & shared why I did so here:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=242555

It's much better to post trade setups before any move instead of posting charts after the fact.

Thanks.


Wow...That's a lot of aggressivity for such a "lame" question. It just make it clear to me now that it must have been be very painful to hunt for the top lately.

If I asked the same question 2 weeks ago, would you still have given the same frustrated answer...or would you have care at all answering ? I don't think so...

As for posting a chart about the uptrend. Come on. It's pointless. Even EMA crossovers made good money lately...so any system could have made as well...except ranging systems.

Anyway, I wish you all the best with your short and don't forget to take the chill pill
It's all about your stomach lining...
  • #242,625
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:21am Aug 3, 2010 5:21am
hi all

still dont like smelly fingers west is the way
  • #242,626
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:24am Aug 3, 2010 5:24am
Quoting patmarch
SOOOOOO sorry !...I meant...there is a lot of TOP pickers here....not bottom pickers. (75% of the latest posts are about trying to pick the top...and they almost all contain an "I think" kind of comment

It's clear that bottom picking in an uptrend is far less risky (in my opinion) that top picking in an uptrend.

So the question still remains: How many of you were trying to pick the bottom in 2008 and are still here to talk about it ?
I was round in 2008 and before and im still here, so are a few others here
ex member
  • #242,627
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:26am Aug 3, 2010 5:26am
Lets see if can break 5961... today's high so far...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,628
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:29am Aug 3, 2010 5:29am
5964 61.8% 7044-4229 and Daily R1 pivot, Monthly R1 pivot...just above..
Mni now saying offers aroiund here, then possible at 6000 area and option interest around the later area with 6005 being 1.618% extension of 5965-5900

G/L
ex member
  • #242,629
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:33am Aug 3, 2010 5:33am
Quoting bbmac
I was round in 2008 and before and im still here, so are a few others here
Great ! Thank you for your answer. As you point out, you were there in 2008 but were you trying to catch the bottom ? If yes then how many attempts did it take you ? and was the reward worth it ?

Sorry guys I ask this in a very educational purpose...i don't mean to attack anyone.

Catching the top of a move and riding the whole new downtrend must be something great and I think that the ego boost is such that it overcomes the money made and might push the individual to try it again even though he/she might have get hurt big the last time. Bit like UFC fighting...the winning is soooo good that it makes you forget the defeat.
It's all about your stomach lining...
  • #242,630
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:34am Aug 3, 2010 5:34am
I've jumped in short too, at1.5950
  • #242,631
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:35am Aug 3, 2010 5:35am
Quoting drakes
Lets see if can break 5961... today's high so far...
lots of flow-related cross trades today...remember couple of weeks ago...same thing
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #242,632
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:36am Aug 3, 2010 5:36am
Quoting fxoxford
Long Is The Trade Of The Day, Good Luck On Anyone Who's Shorts, 1.6147 Here We Come, this is what i see at the moment, if short comes into play then i will post it, good luck to all.
nothing has change, 1.6147 is still my t/p at the moment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #242,633
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:36am Aug 3, 2010 5:36am
Quoting GlobalMacro
lots of flow-related cross trades today...remember couple of weeks ago...same thing
jumping short here mate.. good luck on your trade. short @1.5951..
  • #242,634
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:37am Aug 3, 2010 5:37am
Quoting GlobalMacro
lots of flow-related cross trades today...remember couple of weeks ago...same thing
Yeah.. todays trade isn't so straight forward...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,635
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:37am Aug 3, 2010 5:37am

The ocean and the markets have many things in common. For one, they are both a dynamic event that is constantly in flux, and from the average traders point of view, beyond any possibility of manipulation. It is what it is; it will go where it goes.



This analogy works if we consider the mindset of a surfer. He knows that he is in a passive relationship to the sea, yet he also knows that he can develop a skill in relationship to its ever changing movements in order to reward himself. The surfer cannot demand anything from the sea, he can only wait for it to present him with an opportunity and engage it when the time is right. To go in during a total calm or a tsunami would be both equally foolish; he must wait for the conditions to be right.



From this point of view too, it would be absurd for the surfer to take anything the sea does to him personally (such as a wipe out, or even a shark attack). Just by entering the seas domain, he has accepted all responsibility for any good or bad outcomes that come his way.



The sea does not know the surfer exists - it is absolutely neutral towards him. Just so with the market. Even though sailors have been known to try to personify it (often as a "she" and in particular as a cruel mistress) we know that whilst this idea is romantic, it is not rational.



This situation is identical for the trader and the market. Consider this - it is as irrational for the trader to have an emotional reaction of anger towards the market as it would be for a surfer to have towards a wave that throws him off his board.



Now lets compare this mindset to that of the gambler. Whats the difference? The gambler feels as though his power lies in his ability to gamble when ever he wishes. There is an illusion of being in control of the situation. The gambler can pull the trigger at will, and he feels as though every pull of the trigger has a possibility of bringing reward. THAT is the difference. If we try to define clearly these two mind sets, they come out something like this:



Surfer : "I am in a passive relationship to the sea, I cannot control it - only myself. It is dangerous yet means me no harm. What ever happens to me is my own doing. I must wait for conditions to be right, and then the sea might present me with an opportunity to reward myself."



Gambler: "I can play the game at will, and each shot has an equal chance of rewarding me. If this turn fails, it brings me closer to winning the next time. Sooner or later, a massive reward must come. It could be the very next pull of the trigger."




These mindsets are fundamentally different. One is good for the trader, the other is a disaster in the making.

ex member
  • #242,636
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:37am Aug 3, 2010 5:37am
Quoting patmarch
Wow...That's a lot of aggressivity for such a "lame" question....
basically you can't answer can you?
you're just here to wind people up. it's not pointless to post a chart up if you know where and what the higher probability setup currently is. that is IF you know. you obviously don't
one more to the shitlist. see ya
Thank You
  • #242,637
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:41am Aug 3, 2010 5:41am
Quoting patmarch
Great ! Thank you for your answer. As you point out, you were there in 2008 but were you trying to catch the bottom ? If yes then how many attempts did it take you ? and was the reward worth it ?

Sorry guys I ask this in a very educational purpose...i don't mean to attack anyone.

Catching the top of a move and riding the whole new downtrend must be something great and I think that the ego boost is such that it overcomes the money made and might push the individual to try it again even though he/she might have get hurt big the last time. Bit...
I don't remember off hand...but personally I do trade both ways in a trend but really only go against it at a confluuence of potential supp/res factors and with one of my repeating set-ups with a price action trigger confirm...I agree with your comments...save to say that trends do move in waves - impulsive and corrective so iit can still be high probability to go against provided a confluebce of tech reasons lines up to suggest such and price action indicates that this may be a good reason to do so. Of course in a trend I favour 'with trend' entries after a pullback.
ex member
  • #242,638
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:42am Aug 3, 2010 5:42am
Quoting fxoxford
nothing has change, 1.6147 is still my t/p at the moment
Enjoy, good luck to anyone who's short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #242,639
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:43am Aug 3, 2010 5:43am
Quoting patmarch
Great ! Thank you for your answer. As you point out, you were there in 2008 but were you trying to catch the bottom ? If yes then how many attempts did it take you ? and was the reward worth it ?

Sorry guys I ask this in a very educational purpose...i don't mean to attack anyone.

Catching the top of a move and riding the whole new downtrend must be something great and I think that the ego boost is such that it overcomes the money made and might push the individual to try it again even though he/she might have get hurt big the last time. Bit...
I dont know about anyone else, I day trade mostly ,who cares about tops or bottoms , all depends on wht timeframe your looking at , day trading its about trading support and resistence levels for me , had a couple short trades early on now a couple of long trades tht payed better lol
  • #242,640
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:44am Aug 3, 2010 5:44am
Quoting bbmac
[left]The ocean and the markets have many things in common.
In overall, life too.
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