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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #242,281
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:14am Aug 2, 2010 5:14am
Quoting drakes
Hi cloggie,

That explains today's movement, missed out on the London move cause I wasn't sure when to enter it, just checking, do you have resistance at 1.5811?

I was just commenting on the overall economic picture really after an uninformed post earlier. Even the Swiss are struggling, their GDP is down, their retail sales are down. I am not saying that things are rosy in the UK, they are just a little less sh!ttier. Joe blow on the street in the UK may not like what the government is doing, the market certainly does.
  • #242,282
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:17am Aug 2, 2010 5:17am
Quoting drakes
Hi cloggie,

do you have resistance at 1.5811?

What TF you looking at?
  • #242,283
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:21am Aug 2, 2010 5:21am
1.594 for short in a small retracement before continue to 1.64574 area...

chow

g
  • #242,284
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:23am Aug 2, 2010 5:23am
Quoting cloggie
What TF you looking at?
Both 5m and 15m charts, on 5m chart it looks more obvious.... if it ranges around this area for awhile, i'll draw a box out and will only go in once it decides on a direction, up if it breaks this resistance line and retest as support, or short if it bounces off it and breaks down below the 40ma line on 5m and holds....

I'm still figuring out how did I miss the move during London open, it was ranging in a box till it broke up, but I was not sure whether I should buy up at that time....
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,285
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:27am Aug 2, 2010 5:27am
Quoting drakes
Both 5m and 15m charts, on 5m chart it looks more obvious.... still figuring out how did I miss the move during London open, it was ranging in a box till it broke up, but I was not sure whether I should buy up at that time....

Yeah I got minor at 5814 only on the M5 though, nothing yet on the 15. Not really a concern here unless you got in late, or not at all in your case . The next big one is at 5831

So you had a break setup on the open that went with no retest and you did not take it? No confidence in your setup yet? Look at some of the breakout strategies here on FF and see if you can find one that suits you.
  • #242,286
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:29am Aug 2, 2010 5:29am
Quoting cloggie
Yeah I got minor at 5814 only on the M5 though, nothing yet on the 15. Not really a concern here unless you got in late, or not at all in your case .

So you had a break setup on the open that went with no retest and you did not take it? No confidence in your setup yet? Look at some of the breakout strategies here on FF and see if you can find one that suits you.
I was worried to be caught in a fake breakout.... but I guess that doesn't really happen so often during London open does it? Anyhow, yeah, just need to build up the confidence that my setup is right....
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,287
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:30am Aug 2, 2010 5:30am
5833 is a strong resistance on daily, I plan to short around there
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  • #242,288
  • Edited 5:44am Aug 2, 2010 5:31am | Edited 5:44am
Quoting drakes
I was worried to be caught in a fake breakout.... but I guess that doesn't really happen so often during London open does it?

Oh yes it does happen, you just need to have patience to not jump on the first bar that jumps out of a range but let it retest the range before a confirmed break.

Every range will at least have a fake and a test. Look at that last one on M5 5787-5807, it faked down and retested (taking some retail money with it), then it faked up and retested (again freaking out the retailers) before testing the minor at 5814 and now the range is broken.

You just need to continue finding ranges and see how the PA interacts with it. A simple TL or even a fast MA is a good tool to keep you from the fakes. Remember last friday, you sold the support at the TL that 4x and I had been discussing and you got suckered into the fakeout. By the time your stop was taken out you had missed the initial move and were now not sure about reentering with the trend and you missed out on 100 pips or so. You need to learn to sit on your hands, watch for a fake out, a test, a retest and the penultimate break, that's where you get in.

I am looking for 5823 (R1) - 5826 (fib extension) next with a nice overshoot and a retest as support.
  • #242,289
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:40am Aug 2, 2010 5:40am
Quoting cloggie
Oh yes it does happen, you just need to have patience to not jump on the first bar that jumps out of a range but let it retest the range before a confirmed break.

Every range will at least have a fake and a test. Look at that last one on M5 5787-5807, it faked down and retested (taking some retail money with it), then it faked up and retested (again freaking out the retailers) before testing the minor at 5814 and now the range is broken.

You just need to continue finding ranges and see how the PA interacts with it. A simple TL is a good tool...
This man is a freakin genius when it comes to charts! Cloggs, back in france mate, still quite sick but will propably start trading again soon. Hope all here at FF is doing well and are ready for my stupid questions ;-) hopefully less soo than 8 months ago!

This was a helluva run we've had! with the USA looking like leading us into the next recession, I'd be looking even longer but a breather is definately needed!

Hope alls well,

pp
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #242,290
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:42am Aug 2, 2010 5:42am
Quoting pawpaw1000
This man is a freakin genius when it comes to charts! Cloggs, back in france mate, still quite sick but will propably start trading again soon. Hope all here at FF is doing well and are ready for my stupid questions ;-) hopefully less soo than 8 months ago!

This was a helluva run we've had! with the USA looking like leading us into the next recession, I'd be looking even longer but a breather is definately needed!

Hope alls well,

pp

Good to have you back, probably the dodgy food in SA . I think most of us are enjoying the carry trade that Sterling is becoming right now.
  • #242,291
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:50am Aug 2, 2010 5:50am
Quoting cloggie
Oh yes it does happen, you just need to have patience to not jump on the first bar that jumps out of a range but let it retest the range before a confirmed break.

Every range will at least have a fake and a test. Look at that last one on M5 5787-5807, it faked down and retested (taking some retail money with it), then it faked up and retested (again freaking out the retailers) before testing the minor at 5814 and now the range is broken.

You just need to continue finding ranges and see how the PA interacts with it.
Ok before Frankfurt open, price was ranging 5710-5720, once Frankfurt open, I didn't enter even though it went up, then it came down to retest the range once more... up and down, so once London opens, the 1st bar went up, I didn't go in yet cause I thought there was a resistance at 5751. Was there?

FYI, I use the site you passed me to check the S/R. Can I confirm with you if my inputs are right for today?

High price:5710
Low price:5550
Close price:5692
Open price: I'm unsure open price for which TF to use?
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,292
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:53am Aug 2, 2010 5:53am
Quoting drakes
Ok before Frankfurt open, price was ranging 5710-5720, once Frankfurt open, I didn't enter even though it went up, then it came down to retest the range once more... up and down, so once London opens, the 1st bar went up, I didn't go in yet cause I thought there was a resistance at 5751. Was there?

FYI, I use the site you passed me to check the S/R. Can I confirm with you if my inputs are right for today?

High price: 5710
Low price: 5550
Close price: 5692
Open price: I'm unsure open price for which TF to use?

Resistance was at 5748. Range was 5725-5748, we had one fakeout with the customary retest and we were on our way. An entry on the proper break would have netted you 60 pips or so, an entry on the TL would have given you 80 so far.

The site I gave you double checks your pivots, not your SR's, today's DP is at 5653
  • #242,293
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:55am Aug 2, 2010 5:55am
Quoting pawpaw1000
This man is a freakin genius when it comes to charts! Cloggs, back in france mate, still quite sick but will propably start trading again soon. Hope all here at FF is doing well and are ready for my stupid questions ;-) hopefully less soo than 8 months ago!

This was a helluva run we've had! with the USA looking like leading us into the next recession, I'd be looking even longer but a breather is definately needed!

Hope alls well,

pp
Think I beat you to the cake on asking stupid questions to Cloggie...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,294
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:58am Aug 2, 2010 5:58am
Quoting cloggie

I am looking for 5823 (R1) - 5826 (fib extension) next with a nice overshoot and a retest as support.

Elusive so far, am taking profits of the table. Let's see what NY brings us. 10 bars and only 10 pips on the 15, price is compressing for some covering here.
  • #242,295
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:00am Aug 2, 2010 6:00am
Quoting cloggie
Resistance was at 5748. Range was 5725-5748, we had one fakeout with the customary retest and we were on our way. An entry on the proper break would have netted you 60 pips or so, an entry on the TL would have given you 80

The site I gave you double checks your pivots, not your SR's, today's DP is at 5653
Ah... that would explain it, my DP is the same as shown by the site...

As for the trade just now, yup, my resistance was at 5751, should have got in once after it broke the resistance and held....

Ok, have a clearer picture now...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,296
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:02am Aug 2, 2010 6:02am
Quoting drakes
Ah... that would explain it, my DP is the same as shown by the site...

As for the trade just now, yup, my resistance was at 5751, should have got in once after it broke the resistance and held....

Ok, have a clearer picture now...

How can your resistance be at 5751 with the high of the Franky move only being 57477? What dodgy broker are you donating your money to?
  • #242,297
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:08am Aug 2, 2010 6:08am
Quoting cloggie
Resistance was at 5748. Range was 5725-5748, we had one fakeout with the customary retest and we were on our way. An entry on the proper break would have netted you 60 pips or so, an entry on the TL would have given you 80 so far.

The site I gave you double checks your pivots, not your SR's, today's DP is at 5653
Are you using London time to figure the DP? By London time I mean as the option for time in the box on the site for the pivots.
  • #242,298
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:09am Aug 2, 2010 6:09am
Quoting cloggie
How can your resistance be at 5751 with the high of the Franky move only being 57477? What dodgy broker are you donating your money to?
I'm using fibo pivots, is there any way I can double check S/R lines?
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,299
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:10am Aug 2, 2010 6:10am
Quoting mdiz2
Are you using London time to figure the DP? By London time I mean as the option for time in the box on the site for the pivots.

Yup, all my trading is based on London, My H4 starts there, my Daily does and all my levels are calculated based on the London, that's where the market is centered around, that's where the majority of traders are.
  • #242,300
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:14am Aug 2, 2010 6:14am
Here is today's play with the two previous ranges and their fakes and breaks, and the current range. You can see the high during the Franky and the fakeout and retest to the bottom, then the fakeout to the top with the retest and the penultimate break. The second range also had a fake to the bottom, followed by a fake to the top with a retest and the penultimate break, we are now in the third range (look a that lovely spinner on the top there, that's what made me take my profits of for now)
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