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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #242,101
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:14pm Jul 30, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting cloggie
See, you are still having a bias. Just set the range that the consolidation of the open forms, today the DP was the bottom of that range and trade the breakout, today that was to the downside. Forget about what the chance is and what you think, just trade what you see. And don't anticipate a break like you did when you sold the support on the NY open without it having broken either way because you thought it would continue what London had started.

As to the TF, I will use any TF that shows the range clearly, today the M15 was just too tight,...
Ok, so you used the DP as the bottom of the range because when London opened it kept on hitting that support, and Frankie fakes high as the top of range because of the resistance from yesterday's high, and if the price broke out from either direction, that should be the trade to take?

Yup about NY open, that was dumb, can I understand your phrase again, don't sell at support and don't buy at resistance is it?
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,102
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:15pm Jul 30, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting drakes
Ok, so you used the DP as the bottom of the range because when London opened it kept on hitting that support, and Frankie fakes high as the top of range because of the resistance from yesterday's high, and if the price broke out from either direction, that should be the trade to take?

Yup about NY open, that was dumb, can I understand your phrase again, don't sell at support and don't buy at resistance is it?

That's it, the range formed with the DP as the bottom, fine just use it to trade. And yes never sell the support, wait for it to break and form again as resistance. Look at the PA now, there is nothing to trade, just wait for this range to break and trade the breakout. Now one thing you need to keep in mind of course that a breakout will have a greater run when it is in the direction of the trend. So if this current range breaks to the bottom you can short it putting your stop just inside the current range and keeping it tight until your trade is in profit. Then find the next logical range that will form as price will never move in a straight line and make sure it continues to break to the downside and move your stop just inside that last box, rinse and repeat and stay in your trade untill a range fails to break in your direction.

Of course this would be a CT, which is not really for the noobs as it takes some judgement to take the right CT's that can give you a decent profit and ignore the ones that are bound to fail, and takes lots of tapereading before you get the hang of it.

If you go back over the posts in the last few weeks, you will see loads of play-by-plays with Wormy and I where we keep throwing numbers up that we want to see and hold in order to stay in the trade.
  • #242,103
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:16pm Jul 30, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
before and after..
Navin, I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be seeing with these charts? I.e. what differences?
Enter Signature
  • #242,104
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:24pm Jul 30, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting cloggie
That's it, the range formed with the DP as the bottom, fine just use it to trade. And yes never sell the support, wait for it to break and form again as resistance. Look at the PA now, there is nothing to trade, just wait for this range to break and trade the breakout. Now one thing you need to keep in mind of course that a breakout will have a greater run when it is in the direction of the trend. So if this current range breaks to the bottom you can short it putting your stop just inside the current range and keeping it tight until your trade is...
Ok, more things to understand and learn, what if there was a fake breakout? Will you know about it? So far now I know that Frankie will always have a fake breakout and I will stay away from that trading time, only start during London open... have there been other times that it may happen too?
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,105
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:24pm Jul 30, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting vosterfxandy
Navin, I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be seeing with these charts? I.e. what differences?

was just indicating where the price bounced
  • #242,106
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:25pm Jul 30, 2010 12:25pm
Hi Star,

Since we're both learning from cloggie, maybe we can keep each other in check while we're trading...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,107
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:25pm Jul 30, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
Cloggie is truly brilliant.. i've been trading for 10 months... and am putting myself through re-training Cloggie style. All best to you.Go back through the thread over the w/e .It is the best training manual out there. in here. anywhere

He is..very few with his experience would even care and he does..he is a great guy!!
  • #242,108
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:26pm Jul 30, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting drakes
Ok, more things to understand and learn, what if there was a fake breakout? Will you know about it? So far now I know that Frankie will always have a fake breakout and I will stay away from that trading time, only start during London open... have there been other times that it may happen too?

Most ranges will have a fakeout first, that is just to keep it interesting and mop up some of the retail money. It just takes time for you to see what is the fake and what is not. Chart time is the only answer really.

Franky does not always have a fakeout, if London opens and the volumes join Franky's start she will just continue what Franky initiated, again it takes time to identify when Franky is the fake (90% of the time). I just stay out and let Franky do whatever it wants and then see where London takes us. Google "London breakout" and find a way of trading that suits your style.
  • #242,109
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:27pm Jul 30, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting cloggie
I used to do this a lot here but I got too many nasty PM's from noobs calling me a know it all and thread hog, that I stopped doing it. Today I just wanted to help 4X in her setup with the NY open as she was a bit distraught having been on the wrong side of the Franky fake out and chasing the intra day trend a bit. I keep my setups simple and don't really rely on indies, just find the intra day trends, and play the breakouts and supports. Go back over yesterday's posts too, we had a bit of a play-by-play with Drakes using SR's and fibs.
Yes .that one is big on my list. Please dont let the strange noobs get you down with their PM talk. Cowards in my opinion,afraid to humble themselves into a learning situation. You have one very good following of good people. If you like tell them to PM me(the nasty PMers), i'll give them a good Welsh sorting and it might keep my mouth off the thread as well. All the best Cloggs
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #242,110
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:29pm Jul 30, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting cloggie
Most ranges will have a fakeout first, that is just to keep it interesting and mop up some of the retail money. It just takes time for you to see what is the fake and what is not. Chart time is the only answer really.
Ok, thanks for the help, looking forward to next week, will analyze this weeks lesson during the weekend...

And will check up on London breakouts...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,111
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:31pm Jul 30, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting drakes
Ok, thanks for the help, looking forward to next week, will analyze this weeks lesson during the weekend...

Look at the PA now, we have had 2 breakouts already on the M5, one at 5704 and one at 5696, now it is forming the next one to break at 5689. You can see how small they are because, one they are CT, two London is closed, three the NY boys are in the pub now waisting their hard earned profits of today.
  • #242,112
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:31pm Jul 30, 2010 12:31pm
I think we are all excited about the Cloggie-lession today.. to recap I made the chart below:

If any mistakes/things to add, please feel free Cloggie.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 27 KB
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #242,113
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:32pm Jul 30, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting 4xStar
I think we are all excited about the Cloggie-lession today.. to recap I made the chart below:

If any mistakes/things to add, please feel free Cloggie.

Perfect and you can clearly see your boxes that need to break to the topside to build your wobbly tower of pisa. Today was actually a perfect textbook trading day, it had all the elements in the right order.
  • #242,114
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:33pm Jul 30, 2010 12:33pm
Ooops .. somehow the first trendline I drew got erased .. and it is important as look how price tested it later on...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 28 KB
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #242,115
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:34pm Jul 30, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting 4xStar
Ooops .. somehow the first trendline I drew got erased .. and it is important as look how price tested it later on...
You got it, that's how you judge when to stay in and when to get out. Who needs indies? The only thing you need to realise is that the entire hour from 0500-0600 GMT is the Franky Open, not just the one bar at 0500. So box in the hour from 0500-0600 and then see what London does with that.
  • #242,116
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:34pm Jul 30, 2010 12:34pm
cloggie, first post for me as well, but I wanted to get in and say thanks for all your useful information today as well... I feel like I have learned a ton today, and for sure I'll be going over this thread again this weekend.

Thanks again!
  • #242,117
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:36pm Jul 30, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting cloggie
Look at the PA now, we have had 2 breakouts already on the M5, one at 5704 and one at 5696, now it is forming the next one to break at 5689. You can see how small they are because, one they are CT, two London is closed, three the NY boys are in the pub now waisting their hard earned profits of today.
Hmmm... I'm looking at the m5, wouldn't you consider them in a range now?
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,118
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:37pm Jul 30, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting drakes
Hmmm... I'm looking at the m5, wouldn't you consider them in a range now?
Yup, 5689-5706
  • #242,119
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:38pm Jul 30, 2010 12:38pm
i have short @15666 and 15698 i have no clue what to do with ..please i u could suggest any thing please that would be great

Quoting cloggie
Perfect and you can clearly see your boxes that need to break to the topside to build your wobbly tower of pisa. Today was actually a perfect textbook trading day, it had all the elements in the right order.
We cannot direct the winds but we can adjust our sail.
  • #242,120
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:39pm Jul 30, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting 4xStar
Ooops .. somehow the first trendline I drew got erased .. and it is important as look how price tested it later on...
May I know how you draw the TLs?
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
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