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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #242,081
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:21am Jul 30, 2010 11:21am
Nasty PMs etcetera.

Don't let the buggers get you down. Hog the thread or not, at least when pushed, you can give a succinct summation of how to stay out of trouble - too many posts here of calls with no explanation, or even worse.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #242,082
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:22am Jul 30, 2010 11:22am
Hey cloggie, thanks A LOT!

As you can see, this is my first post here in FF although I've been following this forum for quite some time. I have traded for about two months, and most of the time I lost a few trades becoz of this fakey-fakey thing. I HAD to register myself just to say THANK YOU to you for explaining that fakey-fakey thingy a few posts back. That explanation is SO USEFUL to me. Maybe I will dig up up your old posts, could learn something useful from there as it is today. Again, thanks.
  • #242,083
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:23am Jul 30, 2010 11:23am
Quoting digger1
Well I am hoping for the same , fiber all ready paying a little lol, gbpusd however still has some argument for longs , we had an abc pattern back a little bit and the gbp likes the 272 and the 618 extension area , niether have been hit and they are both near the top of the channel we have been in for a week now. Someone mentioned a possible head and shoulder pattern forming well a small inverted head and shoulder pattern near the bottom of the channel argument could also be made . both sides of the coin for you man pick your posion lol, didnt want...
For anyone who was in here during the asian session before frankie got the ball rolling , was thinking short at the time because I had some from near yesterdays high lol, they payed but not like the longs have today , The 272 and 618 extension tgts from the abc pattern have played out, done flat for the weekend .
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  • #242,084
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:26am Jul 30, 2010 11:26am


Quoting cloggie
It doesn't get me down at all, have survived many a trading floor over the years.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #242,085
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:27am Jul 30, 2010 11:27am
Quoting digger1
For anyone who was in here during the asian session before frankie got the ball rolling , was thinking short at the time because I had some from near yesterdays high lol, they payed but not like the longs have today , The 272 and 618 extension tgts from the abc pattern have played out, done flat for the weekend . Attachment

Having had the open below the pivot for the first time in a long while I was looking for the same thing this morning and actually shorted the LO and the break of the LO, NY had a mind of its own today giving us a nice runup after their breakout at the open.
  • #242,086
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:27am Jul 30, 2010 11:27am
Quoting cloggie
Yup, looking at the same thing and it is looking good, this week the weekly bar is fully above the channel that started back in June 09.
yep in fact my profit has even started this will be a bullish monthly..if next month can make a new monthly high..no telling where this can go!!
  • #242,087
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:29am Jul 30, 2010 11:29am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yep in fact my profit has even started this will be a bullish monthly..if next month can make a new monthly high..no telling where this can go!!
Maybe time to re-paste the very first post on this thread:
Quote

Quicksilver: Hi,
Does anyone agree cable may go up to 1.9050 area? or will continue bearish when the market open on monday?
__________________

"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses"
George Muzea

******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #242,088
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:30am Jul 30, 2010 11:30am
Quoting 4xStar
..........
.
.
.
and could have entered several times as it turns out.. you should all be grateful as I have the power to stop a move dead in its tracks just by joining in the trade

Really looking forward to next week!!

was that you who just bought 4x?....
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #242,089
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:33am Jul 30, 2010 11:33am
Quoting cloggie
Having had the open below the pivot for the first time in a long while I was looking for the same thing this morning and actually shorted the LO and the break of the LO, NY had a mind of its own today giving us a nice runup after their breakout at the open.
ha ha it was the 1st time in 6 days we opend below the pivot , was thinking a nice retracment too , was one but not much of one lol
  • #242,090
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:33am Jul 30, 2010 11:33am
Quoting 4xStar
Maybe time to re-paste the very first post on this thread:
that would be something huh
  • #242,091
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:35am Jul 30, 2010 11:35am
Quoting cloggie
Setting the stop just below R2 and letting her ride some more. R3 is at 5737
Just got stopped, done for the day. Closed all my trades, going to be an interesting one next week. A weekly close above 5707 would be really great for the bulls.
  • #242,092
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:36am Jul 30, 2010 11:36am
...i did realise some one mentioned to wait ~ 1.57 area..n he does...

thanks to grashid for his input..damm it ..i really follow his call blindly as i saw most of his post was damm accurate especially gy..

i short gu @1.57127 at 10 std lot and it was in +107pip

thanks g for ur insight ...g where are u?
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  • #242,093
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:40am Jul 30, 2010 11:40am
Quoting cloggie
And that's why I keep coming back, it is quite nice for me too because it forces me to formalise my thinking and rationale at times. And it is fun calling out the muppets trying to predict the tops. Keeps me entertained. But even today two idiots called me a know it all and stuck up trader trying to show off, Ah well. As long as I keep squeezing 200 pips a day out of Cable, I don't really care too much....
Hi Cloggie, don't bother about idiots, they can harp all they want, but thanks for being patient to answer all the questions we throw at you, I learnt something from your teachings to Star also, cause I have that exact same problem with Frankie fakes.... hopefully next week will be a better trading week for me....
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,094
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:43am Jul 30, 2010 11:43am
Quoting drakes
I have that exact same problem with Frankie fakes.... hopefully next week will be a better trading week for me....

I never trade Franky, I just watch it to see if London catches on or not. Franky does not have the volume to break major levels and if London does not join the Franky ride (which it rarely does) you can discount the move from 0600-0700 GMT as a Franky fake and focus on the London break. There are loads of different ways of trading the London open, I just set a range and trade the break out. And like today Franky could not break the high and as the day opened below the pivot I did not even wait for a range to form and just got in short on the London open as soon as the Resistance held.

The biggest problem "newer" traders have is riding larger moves and for that you really need to know your SR's and how PA interacts with them to have the confidence to stay in and to know when and where to move your stops so you only get stopped when the intraday trend changes and not when you get the odd spike in the PA. I see a larger move as we had today as a series of smaller ranges that form and as long as they continue to break in the direction of the trend I stay in and move my stops as soon as the breakout resistance forms as support and continue to do that for as long as the move holds. Once in a run I hardly look or think about the "top" I just let the SR's decide that for me.
  • #242,095
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:44am Jul 30, 2010 11:44am
just echoing other posts in here; thanks for the advice, especially cloggie & navin at the moment.

Been dabbling with cable for a few months and am now in a position to do more during the London day; this thread is worth it's weight in gold (or pips).

Going to be reading over the last couple of days worth of comments this weekend in preparation for next week.
  • #242,096
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:52am Jul 30, 2010 11:52am
Quoting cloggie
...
The biggest problem "newer" traders have is riding larger moves and for that you really need to know your SR's and how PA interacts with them to have the confidence to stay in and to know when and where to move your stops so you only get stopped when the intraday trend changes and not when you get the odd spike in the PA. I see a larger move as we had today as a series of smaller ranges that form and as long as they continue to break in the direction of the trend I stay in and move my stops as soon as the breakout...

The problem being .. how do you know the 'odd price spike' is not a trend change?
.. but that can be next weeks' lesson. Maybe in real time we can follow your trade if we get a nice trending day.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #242,097
  • Jul 30, 2010 11:54am Jul 30, 2010 11:54am
Quoting 4xStar
The problem being .. how do you know the 'odd price spike' is not a trend change?
.. but that can be next weeks' lesson. Maybe in real time we can follow your trade if we get a nice trending day.

You use exactly what I talked you through on the NY open, keep finding boxes on your charts and trade your trend as a series of boxes, keep stacking them up and as long as the tower does not tumble over stay in. Also keep drawing new TL's on the lower TF and use them as your supports. Oh and forget the indies, they just confuse you and force you to get out early because the d@mn things show overbought in no time when there is still 100 pips to run. If you are late in the day and see that a trend has started without you, just find the next box and use the breakout of that as your entry to a trend that has been going for a while. And keep in mind Cable likes fibs, put up one for the day's range and see where we ended up. (watch that 50 momentum level, that is always the biggie)
  • #242,098
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:00pm Jul 30, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting cloggie
I never trade Franky, I just watch it to see if London catches on or not. Franky does not have the volume to break major levels and if London does not join the Franky ride (which it rarely does) you can discount the move from 0600-0700 GMT as a Franky fake and focus on the London break. There are loads of different ways of trading the London open, I just set a range and trade the break out. And like today Franky could not break the high and as the day opened below the pivot I did not even wait for a range to form and just got in short on the London...
I looked back at the post that you answered Stars question, and knowing the range and breaking out of the range.... so for range, you use the 5m chart? Is this the 'box' you both are mentioning about?

Looking back at todays trade, after Frankie fake got held by yesterdays high as resistance, and when London opened the next hour, it looked like it had trouble breaking the DP, as the DP was being the support held for the next couple of hours. Furthermore, the 25ma was also near the DP. Wouldn't that suggest that a move down was tough to break and there was a chance it would bounce back up instead? It was only after 3 hours of London open till it broke below the DP.
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #242,099
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:01pm Jul 30, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting drakes
Looking back at todays trade, after Frankie fake got held by yesterdays high as resistance, and when London opened the next hour, it looked like it had trouble breaking the DP, as the DP was being the support held for the next couple of hours. Furthermore, the 25ma was also near the DP. Wouldn't that suggest that a move down was tough to break and there was a chance it would bounce back up instead? It was only after 3 hours of London open till it broke below the DP.

See, you are still having a bias. Just set the range that the consolidation of the open forms, today the DP was the bottom of that range and trade the breakout, today that was to the downside. Forget about what the chance is and what you think, just trade what you see. And don't anticipate a break like you did when you sold the support on the NY open without it having broken either way because you thought it would continue what London had started.

As to the TF, I will use any TF that shows the range clearly, today the M15 was just too tight, it was only a 15pip range, so I scaled down to the M5 and used that one.

So to summarise it bluntly, forget about chances, leave that for the poker table, trading is about facts.
  • #242,100
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:08pm Jul 30, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting nextchay
Hey cloggie, thanks A LOT!

As you can see, this is my first post here in FF although I've been following this forum for quite some time. I have traded for about two months, and most of the time I lost a few trades becoz of this fakey-fakey thing. I HAD to register myself just to say THANK YOU to you for explaining that fakey-fakey thingy a few posts back. That explanation is SO USEFUL to me. Maybe I will dig up up your old posts, could learn something useful from there as it is today. Again, thanks.
Cloggie is truly brilliant.. i've been trading for 10 months... and am putting myself through re-training Cloggie style. All best to you.Go back through the thread over the w/e .It is the best training manual out there. in here. anywhere
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
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