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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #241,981
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:35am Jul 30, 2010 7:35am
Quoting cloggie
Right now we are forming a range from 5596-5608, trade the break, being mindful of a fakeout.
How can you tell when it is a fakeout .. I think this is one of my weak spots, the fakeouts always fake me out...
Is it when price surges 'too quickly' in one direction or another? How do you confirm if fakeout or new direction .. wait for next 5 min bar to close?
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,982
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:37am Jul 30, 2010 7:37am
Quoting 4xStar
How can you tell when it is a fakeout .. I think this is one of my weak spots, the fakeouts always fake me out...
Is it when price surges 'too quickly' in one direction or another? How do you confirm if fakeout or new direction .. wait for next 5 min bar to close?
Because 90% of the breaks have a test, a break and a continuation, just don't get caught out by the test turning into a fake, if a range goes don't jump on the first break of it, make sure it is retested before it continues.
  • #241,983
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:37am Jul 30, 2010 7:37am
Quoting 4xStar
How can you tell when it is a fakeout .. I think this is one of my weak spots, the fakeouts always fake me out...
Is it when price surges 'too quickly' in one direction or another? How do you confirm if fakeout or new direction .. wait for next 5 min bar to close?
She plumeted then reversed back up just as quickly .. which one is the fakeout??
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,984
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:38am Jul 30, 2010 7:38am
Quoting 4xStar
She plumeted then reversed back up just as quickly .. which one is the fakeout??

The first is a fake, because the test failed and brought us back in the range. she broke support and failed the test as resistance. For a break to the downside to be valid the support needs to become resistance. At this point for a break to the North the DP needs to become support so we want to see a break of 5609, don't trade it yet because the DP is so close, wait for the DP to go and form support then look at 5632 next. If the DP holds expect it to return into the same range from earlier and see if the next break is a valid one. At that point we are looking at 5587 and 5564 again. Just don't jump the gun on the open, especially when it coincides with major news like today.

Today is a beautiful NY text book open, 2 fakeouts having taken out plenty of retail stops and had the noobs jump on long bars in the wrong direction, it will now go back into its box and you can trade the break of that one. Patience is the key, don't be too worried about missing the run on the first bar, I call it the suckerbar.
  • #241,985
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:45am Jul 30, 2010 7:45am
as chart below....2nd and highest bubble should say '...preferably within the body of that bullish thrust candle'
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ex member
  • #241,986
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:47am Jul 30, 2010 7:47am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

You are 100% correct. One should never add to a losing position. This is sound advice.

Regards
i disagree,
i've strategy where i start with small lots ( with my rules) and go on incresin my trade size till it turns in my favor
search ff u'll find the averaging
u need courage, patience, big pocket, mm, and a set of fixed rules to act
dont try it on small tfs
gl
ohan
  • #241,987
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:47am Jul 30, 2010 7:47am
Quoting 4xStar
I shall be studying these last few posts over the weekend .. my goal is to see this stuff in advance, not in hindsight!!

Thanks for all the help
His posts and advice are always valuable...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #241,988
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:50am Jul 30, 2010 7:50am
Failed to break DP on the m15 chart, and also 200ma on 5m chart, so am short now.... hope to hit target...
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #241,989
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:51am Jul 30, 2010 7:51am
Quoting ohan
i disagree,
i've strategy where i start with small lots ( with my rules) and go on incresin my trade size till it turns in my favor
search ff u'll find the averaging
u need courage, patience, big pocket, mm, and a set of fixed rules to act
dont try it on small tfs
gl
ohan

Scaling into losers is a noob strategy. Look up 3 guys who scaled into losers and see their results: LTCM, Barings Brothers and Sumitomo Copper.

If you get caught scaling into a loser on any trading floor in the world you will not only lose money, you will lose your job.

Take your loss and move on.
  • #241,990
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:51am Jul 30, 2010 7:51am
Quoting cloggie
The first is a fake, because the test failed and brought us back in the range. she broke support and failed the test as resistance. For a break to the downside to be valid the support needs to become resistance. At this point for a break to the North the DP needs to become support so we want to see a break of 5609, don't trade it yet because the DP is so close, wait for the DP to go and form support then look at 5632 next. If the DP holds expect it to return into the same range from earlier and see if the next break is a valid one. At that point...

Many thanks for posting this very valuable information for us New-Bees......

I often wondered how this could or more too the point should be explained.

Your post will of course be added to other valuable information gained from this thread.

Hope everyone has a good and restful weekend. Personally I will continue studying all the pertinent information I have gathered this week. Which has enabled me too be 123 pips up on the week.

regards

AdrianHNV
  • #241,991
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:52am Jul 30, 2010 7:52am
Quoting drakes
Failed to break DP on the m15 chart, and also 200ma on 5m chart, so am short now.... hope to hit target...

Right now you are selling support (again)
  • #241,992
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:53am Jul 30, 2010 7:53am
Hi Cloggie

Thanks for your commentary over the pass hour.

Your understanding is very, very good.
  • #241,993
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:55am Jul 30, 2010 7:55am
finding supply at the base of that previous 5min congestion zone referred to earlier-lasted 2hrs before downside break...

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z.gif Size: 13 KB
ex member
  • #241,994
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:55am Jul 30, 2010 7:55am
Quoting ohan
i disagree,
i've strategy where i start with small lots ( with my rules) and go on incresin my trade size till it turns in my favor
search ff u'll find the averaging
u need courage, patience, big pocket, mm, and a set of fixed rules to act
dont try it on small tfs
gl
ohan

Different schools of thought abound with regards to averaging-in. (adding to losing positions).
It's a very reasonable strategy as long as you use proper and strict money management.
  • #241,995
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:58am Jul 30, 2010 7:58am
Quoting cloggie
Right now you are selling support (again)
Support would seem to be on the M30 chart, current area would seem to be 15m resistance...

IMO...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 15mres.jpg Size: 82 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #241,996
  • Jul 30, 2010 8:01am Jul 30, 2010 8:01am
Quoting cloggie
Scaling into losers is a noob strategy. Look up 3 guys who scaled into losers and see their results: LTCM, Barings Brothers and Sumitomo Copper.

If you get caught scaling into a loser on any trading floor in the world you will not only lose money, you will lose your job.

Take your loss and move on.
This is simply not true. Position trading by the large institutions is a staple part of their trading. Timing is certainly NOT everything.
  • #241,997
  • Jul 30, 2010 8:02am Jul 30, 2010 8:02am
Quoting cloggie
Right now you are selling support (again)
I shouldn't right??
Don't be emo... don't be emo....
  • #241,998
  • Jul 30, 2010 8:03am Jul 30, 2010 8:03am
You know, I think I'm beginning to see it ...
I was 'almost' there .. & now maybe the missing pieces have been filled in .. I sure hope so!

Quoting cloggie
The first is a fake, because the test failed and brought us back in the range. she broke support and failed the test as resistance. For a break to the downside to be valid the support needs to become resistance. At this point for a break to the North the DP needs to become support so we want to see a break of 5609, don't trade it yet because the DP is so close, wait for the DP to go and form support then look at 5632 next. If the DP holds expect it to return into the same range from earlier and see if the next break is a valid one. At that point...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,999
  • Jul 30, 2010 8:05am Jul 30, 2010 8:05am
same as yesterday. good for the 30 to 50 pips traders. good luck to all.
  • #242,000
  • Jul 30, 2010 8:16am Jul 30, 2010 8:16am
Quoting cloggie
Today is a beautiful NY text book open, 2 fakeouts having taken out plenty of retail stops and had the noobs jump on long bars in the wrong direction, it will now go back into its box and you can trade the break of that one. Patience is the key, don't be too worried about missing the run on the first bar, I call it the suckerbar.
The blue area below would be the 'box' right? So you wait through all the jumping around, should consolidate inside the box, then wait for a breakout with a test .. ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 19 KB
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
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