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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #241,961
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:02am Jul 30, 2010 7:02am
Hi Guys, New blood here !! extremely grateful for being able to look at your charts,comments etc.

Are we now safe to go long on the cable & the EUR/USD.

I have lost so much going one way and then another it has made me argue with myself !!

Thanks again
  • #241,962
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:03am Jul 30, 2010 7:03am
It's one of those days .. no matter which way I think she will go, she does the opposite ... then reverses and goes the way I originally thought, after I am out .. or reversed.
Havn't had a day like this in awhile .. rather discouraging but I guess it is not a good idea to even be trading while there is no clear confirmation of direction...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,963
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:04am Jul 30, 2010 7:04am
Quoting Oracle
This week I lost $300.
instead of running after targets, learn to collect 5 to 10 pips on 5 minute charts

malcolm does just that, and we collect all the money on the table

running after targets gets you married to an old hag. and you never know when t o divorce her for an alternative from the beach.
  • #241,964
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:06am Jul 30, 2010 7:06am
Quoting 4xStar
It's one of those days .. no matter which way I think she will go, she does the opposite ... then reverses and goes the way I originally thought, after I am out .. or reversed.
Havn't had a day like this in awhile .. rather discouraging but I guess it is not a good idea to even be trading while there is no clear confirmation of direction...
go for live ins, not a marriage

never marry targets and direction, rather scalp 5 minutes with the wave
  • #241,965
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:06am Jul 30, 2010 7:06am
Quoting bbmac
Hi Nav, Of course many can and do sell a 'top' in an uptrend but I think the mistake newbie traders make is not traeting like a pullback, ie they go for the home run instead of the pullback target..Similarly in a downtrend buying the bottoms...What is self evident is

a. Trends tend to go on longer than we all thought possible
b. It's an old trueism but very true...oscillators can stay overbought or oversold longer than most can stand - lol!!
c. Trends move in waves, impulsive (with trend) and corrective

G/L

yes absolutely..that exactly what i used to do, in the beginning..go counter trend looking for a home run..

soon realised after big losses and no comeback!!..lol

in a uptrend..every support can potentailly correct price back into trend..it just aint worth it..

i considered a short like most based on the poor dailly yesterday..break of the low gave a potential reward of 30 pips SL needed had to be 97..just wasnt good risk to reward.

I have conditioned myself to only go with the trend..unless it is obvious theres a correction

weekly is health and if weekly closes like this..we should see a monthly target of 1.60 somewhere next month
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  • #241,966
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:06am Jul 30, 2010 7:06am
Quoting 4xStar
It's one of those days .. no matter which way I think she will go, she does the opposite ... then reverses and goes the way I originally thought, after I am out .. or reversed.
Havn't had a day like this in awhile .. rather discouraging but I guess it is not a good idea to even be trading while there is no clear confirmation of direction...

I disagree, we had an open today below the DP setting us up for a drop, Franky gave us the customary fake and London set the direction, reached my target, consolidated and is returning. Today is actually one of the first "normal" days in a while since summer trading started, just on a smaller scale, without the customary 150 pip move.
  • #241,967
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:09am Jul 30, 2010 7:09am
Quoting cloggie
I disagree, we had an open today below the DP, Franky gave us the customary fake and London set the direction, reached my target, consolidated and is returning. Today is actually one of the first "normal" days in a while since summer trading started.
Wish I could see it as clearly as you do!

I was short .. franky scared me out, I went long on retrace, got stopped out, did not go short again .. then she plumeted and my original short would have paid nicely.
I went long, got stopped out, went long again, stopped out. Gave up going long .. and NOW she retraces back up!
If today is 'normal' I don't want any more normal days LOL
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,968
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:09am Jul 30, 2010 7:09am
Quoting forexlion
go for live ins, not a marriage

never marry targets and direction, rather scalp 5 minutes with the wave
monkeys never sit on one tree, they swing from tree to tree
  • #241,969
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:10am Jul 30, 2010 7:10am
Quoting forexlion
rather scalp 5 minutes with the wave
Do you have a PROFITable strategy for this style?

as for me, I try to collect 5-10 pips in X:55 - (X+1):15 minutes
or
in X:25 - X:45 mminutes

$)
  • #241,970
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:13am Jul 30, 2010 7:13am
Quoting mouse09
fucking bulls moving it to top again ((

i woun't surprise if we see 1.5750 today
the 4hr bar was ruthless..all new traders would have got killed..experienced traders should have seen it coming

notice the 3 bars on the left triple bar low higher close..defined support..had no chance as this is where the buyer order would have flowed in
12 hrs and it couldnt break no reason to suspect it should break now..but its all probability..so could never be sure

hope that make sense

theres a point to me mentioning this..half in here wont have seen it cause they dont even look at the time frame
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  • #241,971
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:13am Jul 30, 2010 7:13am
Quoting 4xStar
Wish I could see it as clearly as you do!

I was short .. franky scared me out, I went long on retrace, got stopped out, did not go short again .. then she plumeted and my original short would have paid nicely.
I went long, got stopped out, went long again, stopped out. Gave up going long .. and NOW she retraces back up!
If today is 'normal' I don't want any more normal days LOL

The day opened below the pivot indicating a down day, Franky always gives us a fake (90% of the time) so that should not have caught you out. Franky failed to break the top and the london open set a mini range which you could have traded as a breakout. RIght now we are waiting to see what NY gives us for a direction before the dollar sell of starts this afternoon. Let it consolidate during the open here and trade the break, if she goes down we are looking at a new low, if NY holds her up in anticipation of the sell off in dollar this afternoon we are looking at 5632 and the high again. Just don't take a new position now, let it tell you the way in the next 15 minutes.

Looking at your daily this morning would have identified the spinning top and evening star making the likelyhood of any longs pretty remote.

Your key right now is the DP, if NY fails to breach it we are staying below it.
  • #241,972
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:14am Jul 30, 2010 7:14am
Quoting mouse09
fucking bulls moving it to top again ((

i woun't surprise if we see 1.5750 today

There was probably always going to be some demand there (the higher probability,) a potential support zone...confluence consisteing of

a. previous 1hr/minor 4hr swing lo zone
b. 50% 5541-5661
c. 200day sma
4. Mni touting bids 5545/55 with stops below 40

As the 5min priinted a bullish candle combo...a PB followed by a Bull thrust engulf, then so did 15min, 30min, 1hr...

G/L
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ex member
  • #241,973
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:19am Jul 30, 2010 7:19am
bbmac, sorry but i didn't understand what you wanted to say.
  • #241,974
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:21am Jul 30, 2010 7:21am
My bias was short .. but I got faked out, story of my life! Frankfurt rose to .5638 right? Then she surged to high of day at LO .. just want to make sure I have my times right. YOu say LO set a mini range .. looks like from open (if the open was the high of day) she went down from there with one retracement .. so I don't get 'playing a mini range' I just see staying short and maybe adding at that surge would have paid...
And then out at the S1.


Quoting cloggie
The day opened below the pivot indicating a down day, Franky always gives us a fake (90% of the time) so that should not have caught you out. Franky failed to break the top and the london open set a mini range which you could have traded as a breakout. RIght now we are waiting to see what NY gives us for a direction before the dollar sell of starts this afternoon. Let it consolidate during the open here and trade the break, if she goes down we are looking at a new low, if NY holds her up in anticipation of the sell off in dollar this afternoon we...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,975
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:25am Jul 30, 2010 7:25am
Quoting 4xStar
My bias was short .. but I got faked out, story of my life! Frankfurt rose to .5638 right? Then she surged to high of day at LO .. just want to make sure I have my times right. YOu say LO set a mini range .. looks like from open (if the open was the high of day) she went down from there with one retracement .. so I don't get 'playing a mini range' I just see staying short and maybe adding at that surge would have paid...
And then out at the S1.

Franky gave us the fake but did not have the volume to break it, London brought it straight back to the day's open and ranged between the pivot and 5632. The pivot gave way and she headed to 5564, overshooting it slightly, consolidated and attempting now to bring it back to the pivot. If NY respects that pivot we should see a mini range here forming on the M5 which you can then use as a break out to trade, if she breaks to the bottom we will see the Low again, NY likes to fill the range. If she breaks to the top and the DP gives 5632 comes back in and NY and London will have the volume to bring it back to the top once more.

Right now we are forming a range from 5596-5608, trade the break, being mindful of a fakeout.
  • #241,976
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:26am Jul 30, 2010 7:26am
Q2 advance U.s GDP and PCE due in 5mins..potential for dissapointment ? If numbers come in much lower than last mth/forecast....

G/L
ex member
  • #241,977
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:27am Jul 30, 2010 7:27am
I shall be studying these last few posts over the weekend .. my goal is to see this stuff in advance, not in hindsight!!

Thanks for all the help

Quoting cloggie
Franky gave us the fake but did not have the volume to break it, London brought it straight back to the day's open and ranged between the pivot and 5632. The pivot gave way and she headed to 5564, overshooting it slightly, consolidated and attempting now to bring it back to the pivot. If NY respects that pivot we should see a mini range here forming on the M5 which you can then use as a break out to trade, if she breaks to the bottom we will see the Low again, NY likes to fill the range. If she breaks to the top and the DP gives 5632 comes back...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,978
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:27am Jul 30, 2010 7:27am
Quoting bbmac
Q2 advance U.s GDP and PCE due in 5mins..potential for dissapointment ? If numbers come in much lower than last mth/forecast....

G/L

They probably will with the dismal durable goods we had, it is just a matter of whether the market has it priced in already or not.
  • #241,979
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:29am Jul 30, 2010 7:29am
Quoting 4xStar
I shall be studying these last few posts over the weekend .. my goal is to see this stuff in advance, not in hindsight!!

Thanks for all the help

A normal non-summer's day gives us the Franky fake, the London break, the consolidation then either the return or continuation and NY setting either the high or low, all you need to do is figure out whether the day is pretty normal, news not withstanding and what happens after the consolidation phase of the London break. Then repeat on the NY open.
  • #241,980
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:32am Jul 30, 2010 7:32am
kind of a mix here...
14:30USDAdvance GDP q/q 2.4%2.5%2.7%

14:30USDAdvance GDP Price Index q/q 1.8%1.1%1.1%
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