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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #241,201
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:21am Jul 27, 2010 7:21am
Quoting kill56
dam it cloggie let the cable go u are holding it

NAh not me, am still holding my longs, was gone all morning so did not get tempted in reversing this one yet. Like I said last night 5567 and 5596
  • #241,202
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:23am Jul 27, 2010 7:23am
Quoting reflex
Look at the last hour of the 5min cable chart engulfing bars one after another means indecision.

Market looks pretty indecisive right now, HUH?
  • #241,203
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:24am Jul 27, 2010 7:24am
Quoting cloggie
Yeah, I want a bar above the next asslevel at 5521 for 5567 to go, above that I got 5596..

Check one and two. 5596 next.
  • #241,204
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:24am Jul 27, 2010 7:24am
Quoting reflex
Look at the last hour of the 5min cable chart engulfing bars one after another means indecision.
engulfing does not mean indecision
Thank You
  • #241,205
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:25am Jul 27, 2010 7:25am
Quoting cloggie
NAh not me, am still holding my longs, was gone all morning so did not get tempted in reversing this one yet. Like I said last night 5567 and 5596

u got it
  • #241,206
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:25am Jul 27, 2010 7:25am
Quoting cloggie
NAh not me, am still holding my longs, was gone all morning so did not get tempted in reversing this one yet. Like I said last night 5567 and 5596
lol you wouldnt have been tempted ha ha only thing tempting was how many more longs to add lol
  • #241,207
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:26am Jul 27, 2010 7:26am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Two main levels I am watching here are 5471 monthly resistance and 5315 the resistance level for the monthly inside bar setup. This monthly bar close will be very important if we close above 5315 as it confirms a break of the monthly inside bar setup. That coupled with the positive Prelim GDP figures makes it likely we will target 5830 and 1.60 medium term providing we can break through 5471.

Today

[color=black][font=Verdana]Upper profile distribution...
PA testing daily 200MA (5577)....very important area with the monthly candle close around the corner. Im waiting for a daily/monthly close above above 5471/90 before getting involved in any longer term trades...

As per previous post a confirmed monthly hold above 5471/ 5320 leaves 5830 and 1.60 as medium term targets....Also a daily close aove the 200MA is very bullish for GU.

Stocky
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  • #241,208
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:26am Jul 27, 2010 7:26am
Quoting GlobalMacro
but if you have "no idea" how can you base your decision on something you don't know? after all your trading edge does not trade on its own!

in fact if one follows your line of thinking logically, you should not be able to determine your trading edge at all because you simply do not know...

What I mean is that at all times I have no idfea what will happen in the market next....ie in the next minute, 5min, 30min,hr, 4hr day, week etc....I accept this, how can I or anyone have any idea, we do not have access to all market participants trading plans ! All I have is my trading edge...and this I know verey well...when it sets-up I enter the market using the close of an individual candle on the trigger t/f it first sets-up on, but I still have no idea what will happen enxt...ie whther the trading edge on this particular occasion will produce a winning trade...all i know is that If I trade it every time it sets-up , based on a very large historical sample up to and including the last time it set-up, it produces a winning trade on x % of occassions, so if i combine that with the correct money and risk management then across the next sample of set-ups that make up the trading edge I should come out net profitable again.
ex member
  • #241,209
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:30am Jul 27, 2010 7:30am
Quoting digger1
lol you wouldnt have been tempted ha ha only thing tempting was how many more longs to add lol
flat now some good cans lets see
  • #241,210
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:32am Jul 27, 2010 7:32am
Quoting wormboy
sounds good!

my w1 res is @5553. planning to take my money there as well
target reached. good place to book some imho. that Allseeingeye fella is a reaaly good contrarian
no shorts yet tho, the flag GM pointed out earlier is coming into play. next level if the current resistance fails is the secondary monthly resistance @5597

good luck
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Thank You
  • #241,211
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:36am Jul 27, 2010 7:36am
Quoting wormboy
target reached. good place to book some imho. that Allseeingeye fella is a reaaly good contrarian
no shorts yet tho, the flag GM pointed out earlier is coming into play. next level if the current resistance fails is the secondary monthly resistance @5597

good luck


its tempting bro thinking about it
  • #241,212
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:36am Jul 27, 2010 7:36am
Quoting bbmac
What I mean is that at all times I have no idfea what will happen in the market next....ie in the next minute, 5min, 30min,hr, 4hr day, week etc....I accept this, how can I or anyone have any idea, we do not have access to all market participants trading plans ! All I have is my trading edge...and this I know verey well...when it sets-up I enter the market using the close of an individual candle on the trigger t/f it first sets-up on, but I still have no idea what will happen enxt...ie whther the trading edge on this particular occasion will produce...
so there you go...you have a positive expectancy based on your historical sample...so you must "know" or think to know where the market is going to go when you enter a trade!

...there is simply no other way...

if you truely didn't know or didn't expect a certain future level (i.e. have a certain forecast however implicit it may be )...you should be not doing anything at all otherwise you would be gambling (i.e. tossing a fair coin...)
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #241,213
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:38am Jul 27, 2010 7:38am
Quoting kill56
flat now some good cans lets see
yes took my profit on the ones from the little green fuzzy average on the right , ones from the channel bottom will hold for a bit and see if we can hit the channel top
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  • #241,214
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:46am Jul 27, 2010 7:46am
Quoting wormboy
engulfing does not mean indecision
I didn't say engulfing alone I said one after another but that is just what I have read.
When you see price action with lots of overlaping and engulfing bars what does it mean to you?
I'm not arguing I am interested in how you see it.

Cheers.
  • #241,215
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:47am Jul 27, 2010 7:47am
Quoting GlobalMacro
so there you go...you have a positive expectancy based on your historical sample...so you must "know" or think to know where the market is going to go when you enter a trade!

...there is simply no other way...

if you truely didn't know or didn't expect a certain future level (i.e. have a certain forecast however implicit it may be )...you should be not doing anything at all otherwise you would be gambling (i.e. tossing a fair coin...)

I see what you are referring to, a positive expectancy over the sample as a function of the trading edge being played...yes..but this still does not mean that I have any idea what will happen to price next on each individual time in the sample that I play it...If I did I would only play the ones that I 'knew' were going to win thereby abolishing losing trades, but I don't so I have to play them all to make the saample work.

From the point of view that I know that if the trading edge holds good per the historical sample (and that I play it correctly-patience and disiciplne etc...a whole other ballgame - lol!) over the current sample I will come out ahead then yes my own 'expectancy' is for that outcome.

Semantics probably ?
ex member
  • #241,216
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:48am Jul 27, 2010 7:48am
Quoting kill56

its tempting bro thinking about it
to short? not yet bro give it some time
Thank You
  • #241,217
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:51am Jul 27, 2010 7:51am
Quoting bbmac

Semantics probably ?
I would say most definitely .. GM is taking the meaning of 'know' differently from how you meant it. Of course no one can *know* what will happen next but you can *know* what your trade is likely to do based on your own criteria. You're both right
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #241,218
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:53am Jul 27, 2010 7:53am
Quoting MisterTrader
I am long since 1.5233 and I keep to be long. Cable is moving above 8 hour moving average for the last 72 hours...this signals strength....last print 1.5522
We may see 1.5862 in the next couple of days...still long ...last print 1.5565 and rising...
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #241,219
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:58am Jul 27, 2010 7:58am
Quoting bbmac
I see what you are referring to, a positive expectancy over the sample as a function of the trading edge being played...yes..but this still does not mean that I have any idea what will happen to price next on each individual time in the sample that I play it...If I did I would only play the ones that I 'knew' were going to win thereby abolishing losing trades, but I don't so I have to play them all to make the saample work.

From the point of view that I know that if the trading edge holds good per the historical sample (and that I play it correctly-patience...
semantics probably...so we are in agreement as to the necessity of knowing the final outcome (not necessarily the individual events)...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #241,220
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:58am Jul 27, 2010 7:58am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
155700..that's my top for today..
short here with SL to 156..
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