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  • #321
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:37am Jul 24, 2010 4:37am
I agree with you regarding the mental aspect, thats the biggest challenge.

Regarding when to go long or short I think Pipeasy's point is that because we dont know which way the market is heading even in the next hour, we have to concentrate only on low cost entries in both directions. Keep losses minimal, move stop to BE and forget them. The market will pay you or stop you out. If your shorts, for example, for the previous 2 weeks are being stopped out concentrate more on long positions.

The long term win rate is in single digit percentages, albeit massively profitable, and the 90% + losses or breakevens are what will destroy our appetite to stick with it. If you can mentally adjust yourself to accept 20++ losses or BE's in a row then you can do it.

Just being realistic, not negative, I have complete respect for anyone who can do it!


Quoting ozziedave
Hi Pipeasy,

I have attached a daily EURUSD chart with how I see the price action over the last few months. I attach this only to show the masses out there that what Pipeasy is suggesting with position entries isn't easy and there will be alot of frustration involved because most of your positions will be stopped out at BE or for a loss.

You need to honestly ask yourself if you can handle the mental aspect of this type of trading strategy. I'm not saying that it isn't financially rewarding I'm just playing devils advocate for those of you who may...
  • #322
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:42am Jul 24, 2010 4:42am
Hello everybody.

I will not try to take Pipeasys part, but I will say again, he give as big think. I think this could be trade very easy with no stress, no dificult desitions, ...Just for example from Ozziedave chart. Sell positions from 15. 3. 2010 and buy postions from 1. 6. 2010 could be now closed in big profits or divers.... (I can not rimember Easypips word). Before that we could not close tthat positions because we did not know wher the market is going. Today I think is optimum time to do that. 50 % retrace if you wish. This is mw opinion and I hope it helps...
  • #323
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:47am Jul 24, 2010 4:47am
Quoting 6pack
Or maybe not. I'm not trying to imply that you're wrong or I'm right. I'm just not convinced of the whole "stop at BE" approach.

I'm curious to hear what Graeme, and others here, think of this debate.
It's ok. I'd be happy to hear Graemes opinion too.


Quoting tookey
Graeme also say in earlier post traders fail cause they dont do the obvious.
Excatly. The what I see it is that most aspiring traders wait for "that new indicator" or "that new way to look at the charts" that will finally make them profitable.
  • #324
  • Jul 24, 2010 9:46am Jul 24, 2010 9:46am
I truly like the thought process behind this. I tend to trade H4 and I thought that I let positions run. Not even close.

I have found in many endeavours that people do not know what is possible until they see it or hear it articulated properly. To me this was for the instituitions and the central banks not for me. Or so I thought. Now my eyes have been opened.

As an ex-military Officer I like how he sends in the troops to recce and determine the lay of the land. He brings them to BE quickly and while many may argue the concept of BE it makes sense from this viewpoint. The purpose is to find out information not necessarily to make a killing. The killing will come when he has all the information that he needs. If he is good with his entries then nobody dies but they suffer BE and time delay. Even then all information has a cost associated with it.

I have spent the past week going back over the Daily and Weekly charts for several pairs and it is easy to see in hindsight.

For me, in practice and real time, it will take conviction to say that i am not taking this next trade to make a killing but rather to find out information. How deep into enemy territory it gets before being pulled out I do not know in advance (suffered a BE decision) but the constant probing will let me know where the market is going. (My natural inclination will be to go to BE+spread as required.)

Then the next step will be understanding "diversifying",
  • #325
  • Edited 11:57am Jul 24, 2010 11:44am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting flyer415
I truly like the thought process behind this....
Remember that you can be doing this on several pairs simultaneously. So it will not necessarily take all that long to see results and you will not necessarily be stopping out at BE on all your positions some weeks.

You would also want to focus on the pairs that make the largest moves over the long term without any big spikes that could take some of your long standing positions out. E/U looks like the best as expected. There appears to be 3 or 4 other good pairs. Some of the ones you would expect to be good don't look all that good for this system.
  • #326
  • Jul 24, 2010 12:10pm Jul 24, 2010 12:10pm
what an excellent thread, its been a pleasure to read and observe it. its been ages since we have seen such a solid commitment from a fellow trader to post such excellent stuff. Hats off .

Even with a 1000 USD equity and using micro lots i.e 0.01 ( 10 cents per pip) , you can do wonders with this strategy and concentrate only on the majors ( EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, AUD/USD )

i am going to open another small trading account for 500$ and do live trades using the microlots to check my ability to stick to this strategy . I will be using the Daily candle open to take the trades and use Pivots to maximise my entries and exits.

I would advise anyone to start to demo this on a live account so you can experience the adrelaine rush when you have 20 to 30 trades closing at BE or at a small loss.

best of luck to all
Trend is your friend...
  • #327
  • Edited 1:35pm Jul 24, 2010 12:44pm | Edited 1:35pm
For those of you who would like to read all of pipeasy's posts without other posts then i have created a pdf (includes the charts as well).

I had to upload it to mediafire as it is 6 megs and i could not attach it here.

Find it at this link..


  • #328
  • Jul 24, 2010 1:00pm Jul 24, 2010 1:00pm
flyer415

Great idea, to consolidate this valuable material.
Thank you, this is a big help.

Salbine
  • #329
  • Edited 1:47pm Jul 24, 2010 1:06pm | Edited 1:47pm
Fantastic work

But you might wanna get a "go" from Graeme before posting this (copyright issues etc), just a thought....

PC

[quote=flyer415;3896709]For those of you who would like to read all of pipeasy's posts without other posts then i have created a pdf (includes the charts as well).

I had to upload it to mediafire as it is 6 megs and i could not attach it here.
Less is more...
  • #330
  • Jul 24, 2010 1:34pm Jul 24, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting pipcruiser
Fantastic work

But you might wanna get a "go" from Graeme before posting this (copyright issues etc), just a thought....

PC

hadn't thought about copyright issues as it is all posted on this forum for us to read and all i did was to make it easier to sift through his thoughts.

In the meantime I will delete it and give it to him to post as he sees fit.
  • #331
  • Jul 24, 2010 1:47pm Jul 24, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting flyer415
hadn't thought about copyright issues as it is all posted on this forum for us to read and all i did was to make it easier to sift through his thoughts.

In the meantime I will delete it and give it to him to post as he sees fit.
Thanks. Hopefully it get's posted. I was looking for some way to extract this info for my own reference and in case his images disappear from imageshack.

Anyone know of a good way to do it?
  • #332
  • Edited 4:49pm Jul 24, 2010 3:30pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting tookey
Hello

graem enters from lower timeframe in anticipation of larger movements on the higher timeframe. why do you keep saying you dont understand ? u enter at good lowrisk on smaller timeframe and letting market decide and that position might become something later on which we let it grow?. we diversfy positions as means of risk-reward control. isnt that the whole concept of this method? its very simple .
choose to understand matey

marion
Hi Marion,

Actually I do understand what Pipeasy is doing I just think it's a bit more difficult to implement than most people think. I'm just trying to point out some of the issues and mental challenges you may face when trying to implement this style of trading. For example, on my daily EURUSD chart it would not matter what time frame you entered on the up move you still would be taken out of your positions on the retraces, as I have pointed out several area where this would have happened in this current up move. There are only 2 areas that you could have entered a long position and have it survive, all short positions would have been stopped out. One of those areas where your long position would still be intact is typically an area that most traders would not be taking long entries in and that's the first 2-5 candles of the original up move. If you did enter on those first few candles in the up move then you've one heck of a trader or just plain lucky.

If you look at the down move (between the solid orange lines) before the up move starts you will see that all of your short positions would have either made some profit or more than likely been stopped out at BE or taken a small loss. Alot of this will depend on your money management style.

Again, don't take my comments in the wrong way, I'm not saying this is a bad trading strategy I'm just saying it's alot more difficult to implement than you think. There will be plenty of times you will lose the equity that you have built up over the course of say several months as price retraces. Can most trades handle the mental aspect of long term trading like this? THat is the question you need to ask yourself.
  • #333
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:44pm Jul 24, 2010 4:44pm
Maybe an option would be to place two lots and when you take a trade in the opposite direction (diversify) then take profit on one lot and let the other run.

Quoting ozziedave
Hi Marion,

Actually I do understand what Pipeasy is doing I just think it's a bit more difficult to implement than most people think. On my example chart it would not matter what time frame you entered on you still would be taken out of your positions on the retraces, as I have pointed out several area where this would have happened in this up move. There are only 2 areas that you could have entered a long position and have it survive, all short positions would have been stopped out. One of those areas is typically an area that most traders would...
  • #334
  • Edited Jul 25, 2010 7:01am Jul 24, 2010 5:02pm | Edited Jul 25, 2010 7:01am
Quoting flyer415
For those of you who would like to read all of pipeasy's posts without other posts then i have created a pdf (includes the charts as well).

I had to upload it to mediafire as it is 6 megs and i could not attach it here.

Find it at this link..


Hi there

Please where is the pdf? thats great idea

Edit: its okay i made one today.

i wish more traders was as helpful as graeme without the ego.

happy trading all

marion
  • #335
  • Edited 1:10pm Jul 25, 2010 12:29pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Marion,

Actually I do understand what Pipeasy is doing I just think it's a bit more difficult to implement than most people think. I'm just trying to point out some of the issues and mental challenges you may face when trying to implement this style of trading. For example, on my daily EURUSD chart it would not matter what time frame you entered on the up move you still would be taken out of your positions on the retraces, as I have pointed out several area where this would have happened in this current up move. There are only 2 areas that you...
That's now how I see it. Yes, you will get a lot of postions (legs) taken out but you should have a lot more positions on both sides. If you get everything taken out for a particular pair you are not doing it right. As you said, you could get positions taken out after several months. But you should have a lot more positions that won't and you should have closed many of the more vulnerable positions before they got taken out. As you see the long term trend going against you over the days and weeks you should have been averaging out of the trades on the opposite end of this new possible trend as you enter new positions with the new possible trend. Graeme does talk about this.

Remember these are not individual trades. These are groups of trades taken over days/weeks. So it's easy to close out a few here and there and take some profits as conditions change and still have plenty of skin in the game.
  • #336
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:11pm Jul 25, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting pip_daddy
That's now how I see it. Yes, you will get a lot of postions (legs) taken out but you should have a lot more positions on both sides. If you get everything taken out for a particular pair you are not doing it right. As you said, you could get positions taken out after several months. But you should have a lot more positions that won't and you should have closed many of the more vulnerable positions before they got taken out. As you see the long term trend going against you over the days and weeks you should have been averaging out of the trades...
hey there

i agree with you.

i read the this thread three times now and it was the third time that made clear sense.

graeme aims for long term growth for his positions but knows that most of his positions will close from price fluctuation that he cant control. post 250 where he summs up his stats show only 3-5% of his legs ever become long term growth while 15% will bring in profit in one of the diversification and the other is 80% breakeven. but i be honest and say now that 80% breakeven will drive me crazy. i also read peter_crwn and he also mentions something similar about continuous small losses. i think graeme and peter both saying similar things.

graeme say important of tight /excellent extries will grow our insight and better understanding of the market but also protects our capital from unnecesary losses and drawdowns. we need to protect our capital for the 80% breakeven yes? thats 4 out of 5 positions just dying. dont know if i could stay sane but the reward is definitely attracting me.

i been babypips, forecfactory for so long looking from system to system but maybe the reason this method attracts me is because its finally making 'sensible' sense.. maybe long term growth as grame say is the only way to go. all the other senior members keep saying trend is friend, longer timeframe but they never really explain as to why. perhaps this is why?

just my 2cent folks

marion
  • #337
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:38pm Jul 25, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good evening Ben

... When you are a long term trader you cannot lose on exiting after growth unless your on the wrong side of the road.

Also, im aware of this common belief among traders to walk away when they reach a certain proft target for the week. All I can say is that the market doesnt know each individual traders profit target and certainly dont care. I never stop trading cause I reached certain limit.

No trades on fridays? Yes if there are no low risk setups forming. No if there are low risk setups forming worth entering....
The answer i was looking for that i already knew and it is here. feels strange. the more times i read it the more im convinced long term trading is the way to go.

maybe we could support each other and just post up positions that was held more than 2 weeks into this thread? just to keep it going and motivate others. i know im going to need a friend or two when 80% of my positions just die out.

marion
  • #338
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:06pm Jul 25, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting pipEASY
Thank you for your interest so far. Hope my life stories haven’t bored you however I find it necessary to reveal enough of me even though I feel exposed. I must admit im slightly reclusive and coming this far is out of ordinary for me.

Running a business has its ups and downs but the difficulties I had when I first started with forex was a completely different stress on a different level. At least in a business you have a reliable counsel in which you pay for advice however in forex there is advice everywhere and most of them completely free....
Hi, i get what you're trying to put across here, but maybe you should amend this post of yours in case it causes confusion. The dice game you name here is -EV and smart people would not play it unless they knew how to rig it.

making the fee to play the game $50 instead would work.

Currently, you lose about $16.60 every time u roll the dice.
  • #339
  • Edited 2:16am Jul 26, 2010 1:12am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting tookey
The answer i was looking for that i already knew and it is here. feels strange. the more times i read it the more im convinced long term trading is the way to go.

maybe we could support each other and just post up positions that was held more than 2 weeks into this thread? just to keep it going and motivate others. i know im going to need a friend or two when 80% of my positions just die out.

marion
I do see a possible solution to this psychological problem. Instead of letting the positions die at BE why not put your SL at +50 or +100. I am talking weeks later when you are already up several hundred. On these large time frames, 50 pips is not even a drop in the bucket so it's not really much different to BE in the overall scheme. But it's just enough so you don't feel like it was a total waste of time when you get stopped out.

I would be curious what Graeme would say about this as he is, of course, the ultimate authority.
  • #340
  • Edited 5:33am Jul 26, 2010 5:21am | Edited 5:33am
Good evening, all

Hope everyone is safe and warm.

I have returned to see how everyone is holding up. Im surprised to see that this thread still has interest of many and I thank you for your support.

I have read all your pms, emails and I will hopefully try find some time to answer them all. I apologize for my hastily departure however my participation was costing me alot of my personal time. I ask for your understanding.

Im pleased to see that the thread is now evolving on its own pace by the contribution of the public. Unfortunately, just like orbital decay of a roulette ball, all public discussions will soon decay in size and quality. Hence, I request all new readers to please consider reading the material I presented from the beginning of the thread.

I dedicated my time and efforts for the learners. I pushed aside my own agenda and invested personal time to bring this thread to the benefit of all.

All the answers you are looking for are in the first 21 pages of this thread. You can base your perception around the facts that I presented to you. You do not need to follow my method however there are facts embedded in my posts which will be of great help. I wish I had someone who presented the facts like I did when I was learning. It would have definitely saved me alot on my learning curve. Ironically, even if someone with the knowledge taught me the facts of the market when I was learning, I would have most likely chosen not listen to what they say. Just like parents telling their children what to do and it sounds so sensible to an adult ear but just nonsense to the children.

There is no need to reinvent the wheel and this is especially true in the markets. Traders fail cause they try to create a way to make money. It is so much easier when you just action the obvious.

If its up then BUY, if its down then SELL. You would be amazed at what secrets are behind that sentence.

I know I can completely ruin the integrity of this thread by saying the next, but you are ALL WAITING FOR ME TO SAY IT.

If you cannot be bothered doing the hard work of perfecting your entries, then here you go.

Entering a position at every .00

1. If the price is coming down from last .00, then enter 2 sell positions, 1 position at take profit 100 pips and other position has no take profit. Both positions to have stop loss -100 pips. If price reverses from your entry you lose -200pips but then enter another x2 lots of buy positions since price is coming up from .00
2. You let it run. After 100 pips, 1 position will close by taking +100 pips, and the other remaining position is completely free. Dont move the -100 stop loss of the remaining position, this is your free leg.
3. Hopefully this remaining leg will turn into a leg on your millipede.
4. Place a buy stop/sell stop on every .00

If price changes direction, and price comes from .00 to higher .00 then you would put in x2 buy positions with same rules at the coming up .00.

You need to still allow plenty of time of growth, at least 1/2 weeks before diversification. You will find there is still alot of positions dying now and also they are dying on -200 pips.

Draw a horizontal trendline at every .00 on 'zoomed out' daily chart and you will see that you can stack positions effectively with the above system. On a continuous trend you will have consecutive positions in a row. Make sure you diversify with enough growth.

Im definitely not pleased to share this entry system as you will have drawdowns as you are letting the market either hit the +100 of one position or losing both at -200.

Your accuracy will improve however your reward will be smaller in a sense and your drawdowns will be large. Perhaps you can think of ways to minimize your drawdowns, you will be surprised at related discoveries.

Use small lot size but expand your exposure in the market by putting in positions in many different currency pairs but with same rules as above.

The only reason im sharing the above entry system is so many traders are still asking me for an entry method despite my rants about practicing perfect entries. So, I thought I might as well get them started somewhere.

Im sure I wont sway many traders, however please believe me when I say that I have covered most general areas to be a prosperous trader and it is now up to you to build your own interpretation around what I have showed you.

You do not need to know 200 things to be pro in trading. You only need to be perfect in one thing to make zillions from this market.

I dedicate this thread to everyone. This is all for you.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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