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  • #301
  • Jul 23, 2010 6:22am Jul 23, 2010 6:22am
Hello Ozziedave,

Yes, but we would not take position(s) on monthly chart. If we take position(s) on daily chart (completely different picture) they would be all in profit now. We never know wher market is going and if there is something big preparing. In this case it was something big, trend reversal and we alredy had our positions in place.
  • #302
  • Jul 23, 2010 6:27am Jul 23, 2010 6:27am
Quoting pipEASY
Dear all fellow traders

I wish you all a wonderful trading career and a loving life.

Last 3 weeks has been a blessing on my par and I feel very content from my effots.

At first I anticipated about 20-30 posts and no charts but it was possible to evolve this much from the support of many.

I have no doubts that many of the readers will achieve their dreams and be genuinely happy.

As I mentioned before, I would like to take a step back now.

I will pop in once a while to say hello to all.

Answers you seek are already inside you my...
Thank you very much for this wonderful thread. Good karma to you.
  • #303
  • Jul 23, 2010 6:32am Jul 23, 2010 6:32am
Another thing. As I understand the concept, described by Graeme, we take positions from lower time to higher time frame. We never know what is hapenning on market. We can just participate.
  • #304
  • Edited 10:18am Jul 23, 2010 7:08am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting pipEASY
Dear all fellow traders

I wish you all a wonderful trading career and a loving life.

Last 3 weeks has been a blessing on my par and I feel very content from my effots.

At first I anticipated about 20-30 posts and no charts but it was possible to evolve this much from the support of many.

I have no doubts that many of the readers will achieve their dreams and be genuinely happy.

As I mentioned before, I would like to take a step back now.

I will pop in once a while to say hello to all.

Answers you seek are already inside you my...
I've just spent the night reading this wonderful thread. Graeme, you're simply amazing. Thank you for the education, inspiration, kindness, and patience.
Your method seems to be amazing; your instruction exceeds superb.

If you happen to see this post, and have the patience, I would appreciate it if you could address the following issue:
I understand that moving stops to BE at some point can be psychologically "comforting", but I am not sure what sense the market makes of it. When you have a position in the market (more so if you have multiple positions), every move up or down is gain or a loss (albeit unrealized), whether above your entry, below it, or 1200 pips away.
IMHO, stops should be moved to S/R, from which they have a greater chance of really continuing their reversal - not at BE, which is meaningless for the market (which does not know where you entered).
Again, it really is psychologically comforting to place stops at BE; but as we don't know what the market will do next, I favor placing stops at prices the market might "recognize." btw, re-entries could be placed at the next SR zones...

If at all possible, I would be very interested in your thoughts on this.
Thanks again!
6pack
  • #305
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:25am Jul 23, 2010 7:25am
Quoting 6pack
[...}
IMHO, stops should be moved to S/R, from which they have a greater chance of really continuing their reversal - not at BE, which is meaningless for the market (which does not know where you entered).
Again, it really is psychologically comforting to place stops at BE; but as we don't know what the market will do next, I favor placing stops at prices the market might "recognize." btw, re-entries could be placed at the next SR zones...

If at all possible, I would be very interested in your thoughts on this.
Thanks again!
6pack
Do you mean trailing your stop behind S/R Levels even if your stop moves "in the money"? Or just as an initial Stoploss and leave it there?
  • #306
  • Edited 9:44am Jul 23, 2010 9:32am | Edited 9:44am
graeme
your thread is excellent!!
i have been around forums for so long, trying this and that. i signed up to say a big thankyou to you. every post has something to learn and i find myself re-reading you thread for the 3rd time. i just hope people keep the integrity of this thread. you are true honest person in this forum. thank you again.

Marion
  • #307
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:22am Jul 23, 2010 10:22am
Quoting TJPLD
Do you mean trailing your stop behind S/R Levels even if your stop moves "in the money"? Or just as an initial Stoploss and leave it there?
In general, I think stops should trail, but not by a fixed number of pips, but behind S/R levels, as they get established. If you have multiple positions, you could find several such levels. In any case, you re-enter on a daily basis. So why use the meaningless BE level?
  • #308
  • Edited 12:25pm Jul 23, 2010 11:20am | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting 6pack
In general, I think stops should trail, but not by a fixed number of pips, but behind S/R levels, as they get established. If you have multiple positions, you could find several such levels. In any case, you re-enter on a daily basis. So why use the meaningless BE level?
The magic you get when you simply set your Stop to BE and leave it there forever is that the longer your position survivies the more unlikely it becomes that price will ever come back to your entry. If you try to lock in profit by trailing your stop it's very likely that you will kill a position that would have lasted for years or even a decade yielding unlimited profit. Not only would it have yielded unlimited profit but it'd aalso have paid for every loss or sloppy entry you made. If you kill such trades you ruin the basis of the entire strategy. That's the escence of what Greame is teaching here. If your Stop gets hit and you're out with 300 Pips you will never get a second chance to have such a good position at that price level.
Don't predefine your exits by trailing your stop just because you "belive" you have a good SR Zone as long as you never know whats going to happen let the market be the judge.
  • #309
  • Edited 4:48pm Jul 23, 2010 11:38am | Edited 4:48pm
Can someone explain to me what Graeme means by doing that entry training with 20/20 sl, tp. He keeps saying that things will start to become more clear after awhile and I will start to discover how to predict the best entries etc.

I can't figure out if he is talking about things I am already aware of or if I still do not feel the force (star wars reference).

Doing the training I don't feel like I am getting anything out of it. Either I am being naive and impatient or I am already aware of the force. What am I supposed to be 'discovering'. I already know all about s/r, pivot points, round numbers, confluence etc.

As Graeme said, keep an open mind and I am trying to do that.
  • #310
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:30pm Jul 23, 2010 1:30pm
Hi Graeme and everyone and thank you for for imparting your wisdom to us. I have been a long time lurker in this forum but now I feel the need to express my gratitude in your sharing.
  • #311
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:58pm Jul 23, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting TJPLD
The magic you get when you simply set your Stop to BE and leave it there forever is that the longer your position survivies the more unlikely it becomes that price will ever come back to your entry....
Thank you for your input.
I don't understand why you suggest I might "never get a second chance to have such a good position at that price level." Maybe I won't; more likely, I'd be able to get in at better price levels, if SR levels are broken. Nothing of course is guaranteed. It's all about maximizing your probabiliities. What we're doing here is debating the "how".

I'm afraid you're confusing magic with falling in love with your positions.
Allow me to point out that putting stops at BE is also "predefining your exits." Why put them at BE? why not 100 pips above? Or below?
If the market moves 100 pips against you, you've lost 100 pips [relative to where you were] - and it does not matter where you entered, or if your position is at a loss or a gain.
I'm not afraid of "killing a position", because sooner or later we'll do that anyway. Of course nobody knows what the market will do, where it will go, etc. Thus, I prefer to kill a position where it will most likely not work for me anymore, i.e. beyond strong S/R's. If you enter every day, you won't miss out on any large moves because of that. And if you're afraid you will anyway, put another entry between the SR stop and your original entry.

I realize, of course, the disadvantage of the approach I'm suggesting. However, I've always suspected that setting stops at BE - not only for this system, of course - has more of a psychological value than a "market" value.
I plan to gradually grow my own equity millipede - and at least some of my positions will have stops at SR levels, rather that at my entries.

Let me try to use an example:
If I had bought EURUSD at 1.2222, today I would have stops around 1.245 (resistance) and/or 1.215 (support). A breach of these levels would increase the probability of further declines, so I'd be happy to be out of my long position. Might the market hit these levels and then turn around and rally to 1.60? yes, of course that's possible. I'll have many opportunities (read: every morning) to re-enter.
Conversely, going below my random (from a daily/weekly perspective) entry of 1.2222 would not suggest anything in particular about market direction. That's what I mean by "meaningless" stop. Other than make me fell good that I didn't lose. But in fact I did - or at the very least I gave up some capturable unrealized gains.

I'd like my portfolio to hold high-probability vehicles at any point in time. I keep wondering here whether this alternative I offer here would help serve this objective. Please keep the discussion going, I do appreciate it.
Thanks again,
6pack
  • #312
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:33pm Jul 23, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting 6pack
Thank you for your input.
I don't understand why you suggest I might "never get a second chance to have such a good position at that price...
I think there are always many ways to skin the cat.
If you find out that your approach works for you that would be great.

Quote
I don't understand why you suggest I might "never get a second chance to have such a good position at that price level." Maybe I won't; more likely, I'd be able to get in at better price levels, if SR levels are broken.
Maybe I should have put it differently. You won't get in that "cheap" anymore. Imagine having a short position right at the alltime high of EUR/USD around 1.60ish . Now price comes down to 1.50 you put you stop at 1.55 because you belive that if that level is broken it's likely that we will see higher prices. It get taken out and you are happy to have 500 pips more on your Balance. 1 year later price is at 1.19 now you realize that your your 500 Pips win was actually a 3500 Pips loss. You will never get a positon as cheap as 1.60 if prices keeps trending down for the next years.

Personally I think diversifing at the right time will benefit you much more than having several large wins but no gigantic ones. Because if you keep your positions from getting stopped out prematurely your millipede will have so many legs even if it loses half of them it will still be able to move. Plus even your small leges which you will bank are probably bigger than the ones you get when you get stopped out at SR zones.

Of course it makes sense to protect yourself from corrections and such but even if the proability of a reversal increases. How often have you been proven wrong and how much did it cost you in the sense of potential pips?
So maybe we are better of not beliving in SR zones anyway.
  • #313
  • Jul 23, 2010 4:15pm Jul 23, 2010 4:15pm
If one are able to enter at low risk it would be meaningless to have large sl, so why not to move quickly to BE. If closed out you will just take another entries. Cuting loses always pays off. And leting profits run.
  • #314
  • Jul 23, 2010 5:38pm Jul 23, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting pipEASY
Dear all fellow traders

I wish you all a wonderful trading career and a loving life.

Last 3 weeks has been a blessing on my par and I feel very content from my effots.

At first I anticipated about 20-30 posts and no charts but it was possible to evolve this much from the support of many.

I have no doubts that many of the readers will achieve their dreams and be genuinely happy.

As I mentioned before, I would like to take a step back now.

I will pop in once a while to say hello to all.

Answers you seek are already inside you my...
Afore ye go...

I have a question if you don't mind.

Did you just regurgitate the Buy & Hold {with reason} strategy or was there something in there I missed?

At some point in their Trading career everyone is going to realize the Tried & True;
Trend is Friend;
Longer TF;
Accumulate Pips to cover Adds to Position:
etc... etc...

Not knocking your thread. it was a very easy read. Well formulated with a nice flow but, sorry to say, I didn't see any revelations.

Did I miss something?
  • #315
  • Jul 23, 2010 5:47pm Jul 23, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting Bemac
Afore ye go...

I have a question if you don't mind.

Did you just regurgitate the Buy & Hold {with reason} strategy or was there something in there I missed?

At some point in their Trading career everyone is going to realize the Tried & True;
Trend is Friend;
Longer TF;
Accumulate Pips to cover Adds to Position:
etc... etc...

Not knocking your thread. it was a very easy read. Well formulated with a nice flow but, sorry to say, I didn't see any revelations.

Did I miss something?

Yes sometimes he even sells and holds.
You don't have to reinvent the wheel in order to make money.
Maybe that's the most important message of this thread.
  • #316
  • Jul 23, 2010 5:50pm Jul 23, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting TJPLD
Yes sometimes he even sells and holds.
You don't have to reinvent the wheel in order to make money.
Maybe that's the most important message of this thread.
My mistake. I should have typed...

Buy/Sell & Hold...
  • #317
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:41pm Jul 23, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting TJPLD
Personally I think diversifing at the right time will benefit you much more than having several large wins but no gigantic ones.
I agree. But how do you ensure that? What's the right time? That's probably the big question here. I'd like the market to tell me when to diversify. And one way the market conveys this message is by breaking SR levels - certainly not by retracing to my entries, which the market does not recognize.
I'm sure that in many cases, putting a SL at BE would turn out to be the right thing to do. In other cases, you'd be much better off with the approach I propose. Neither of us can tell a priori.

w.r.t your example: Unfortunately, I don't have any EURUSD shorts from 1.60... However, were I to have any such positions, I might have placed SL around the 1.5283 April 2008 lows. If the market would have retraced to there, it would have been hit, and yes, as you suggest, that specific position would not have "enjoyed the ride" down to 1.19, which is a shame.
But you're missing my point. EURUSD never reached 1.55 or even 1.5283; but if it did, EURUSD may have never reached 1.19: that would have increased the chance we'd be heading toward 2.00 or 2.19 now. That kind of scenario would have left "my" 1.600 position (SL ~1.53) some 700 pips better than "yours" (SL 1.6).

Or maybe not. I'm not trying to imply that you're wrong or I'm right. I'm just not convinced of the whole "stop at BE" approach.

I'm curious to hear what Graeme, and others here, think of this debate.
Good weekend everyone,
6pack
  • #318
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:44pm Jul 23, 2010 7:44pm
Hi Pipeasy,

I have attached a daily EURUSD chart with how I see the price action over the last few months. I attach this only to show the masses out there that what Pipeasy is suggesting with position entries isn't easy and there will be alot of frustration involved because most of your positions will be stopped out at BE or for a loss.

You need to honestly ask yourself if you can handle the mental aspect of this type of trading strategy. I'm not saying that it isn't financially rewarding I'm just playing devils advocate for those of you who may want to trade like this.

Ok, we see that the EURUSD has bottomed out and we have many sell positions in place from the last leg down between the solid orange lines. Price starts to reverse between the solid orange line at the bottom and the dashed orange line 5 candles higher. Seeing this move up, I ask, is this a pullback or possible longer term reversal? Knowing most pullbacks last from 2-5 candles I think to myself, this is just a pullback and I don't see any reason to go long here given the fact that I see a clear resistance area marked by the 2 gold arrows. Now if you were lucky enough to place a buy trade within these first 3-5 up candles you would still be in the game with a long position as of 23 July 2010. Price moves up to the 2nd dashed orange line and then we start to get some type of down move. Now, we need to ask ourselves, is this a correction to the up move or is it a resumption of the longer term down trend? Of course we don't know the answer to that question yet so what do you do here? Most traders would not be inclined to place long trades in the area between the dashed orange lines. I think most traders would look at this and think the down trend is resuming and I should get in short. If you take short positions in this area you would be stopped out or you would take a loss. Even if you took a long position within this area more than likely you would have a BE trade or a loss. The only long position that would survive is in the long up momentum candle that I marked. For the next several weeks ( blue and indigo rectangles)we have basically up, down moves that produce nothing but BE or losing trades. In the meantime as price is moving up you will have to make decisions about all of those sell positions that we entered on the way down from the last leg of the down move. These positions will either get stopped out at BE, turn into small profits or possibly small loses. The point here is all of that work you did on the way down is gone. If you had sound money management you may have made some pips but you also would have lost some pips with the majority of the positions being closed at BE. Would you be happy with those results for your efforts???

What Pipeasy is showing us is great information. I just question how many of us can actually implement a trading strategy like this and make it work?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eru daily 24.7.10.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #319
  • Edited 8:15pm Jul 23, 2010 7:54pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting Bemac
Afore ye go...

I have a question if you don't mind.

Did you just regurgitate the Buy & Hold {with reason} strategy or was there something in there I missed?

At some point in their Trading career everyone is going to realize the Tried & True;
Trend is Friend;
Longer TF;
Accumulate Pips to cover Adds to Position:
etc... etc...

Not knocking your thread. it was a very easy read. Well formulated with a nice flow but, sorry to say, I didn't see any revelations.

Did I miss something?
Sir, i know im stepping on ur toes to say this but what are you exactly saying? everyone is going to realize trend is friend, longer tf, and you dont see any revelation? its cause you may already be successful in your trading and know everythin. waht u say is unnecesary.

you should just agree with the threads intention and hope that others learn something from it.
grame also say in earlier post traders fail cause they dont do the obvious. you know what this is but most dont yet.

the word you chose "regurgitate" is hardly appropriate. disappointing may i add
  • #320
  • Edited 9:58pm Jul 23, 2010 9:42pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Pipeasy,

I have attached a daily EURUSD chart with how I see the price action over the last few months. I attach this only to show the masses out there that what Pipeasy is suggesting with position entries isn't easy and there will be alot of frustration involved because most of your positions will be stopped out at BE or for a loss.

You need to honestly ask yourself if you can handle the mental aspect of this type of trading strategy. I'm not saying that it isn't financially rewarding I'm just playing devils advocate for those of you who...
Hello

graem enters from lower timeframe in anticipation of larger movements on the higher timeframe. why do you keep saying you dont understand ? u enter at good lowrisk on smaller timeframe and letting market decide and that position might become something later on which we let it grow?. we diversfy positions as means of risk-reward control. isnt that the whole concept of this method? its very simple .
choose to understand matey

marion
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