Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Starchild, I pointed out to some of the noobs here that their probability of success was very limited trying to predict points of reversals. We had No stress who continues to try to predict reversal points here publicly that very publicly get stopped out and then he posts a week later that he had made 200 pips anyhow on that trade and that I don't know what I am talking about.

Ah well, if my rightful attack on him prevented another newer trader from making the same mistake, it was entirely justified and I will not hesitate calling guys like that idiots again when they post futile attempts in trying to predict tops here.

Last week we had over 100 post of new traders trying to predict tops unsuccesfully and noobs in here collectively probably lost a few thousand pips in the process.

Countertrading is not for noobs. Keep to the intermediate trend and you will succeed in this.

If you go back over my posts you can see where Wormy and I do plenty of play by plays on countertrends and call them pretty much to within a few pips. For us that is a bit of entertainment and should not be followed by newer traders. I stopped making exact calls of entries here because I got too many PM's expecting more of that.

If you want to countertrade don't make the mistake that some of these idiots make by calling the tops before there is any confirmation of it just because it hit some imaginary trend line that he put there or because it has gone up for so long that it is bout to come down.

IF a noobie posts a countertrend here that was thought out and confirmed you won't here from me, but all these attempts in throwing sh!t at the wall hoping and praying that something is going to stick is just pathetic.

But fine with me I won't call them idiots anymore, just call them utter failures from now on.

And Starchild, it was their pathetic defense of an utterly lossmaking trade setup that got all this started here. Now if they get upset by my comments, they should stop posting their setups here and start a little trading journal where their mates won't comment on their futility.

Hi cloggie..I agree wit you..in that a new person won't know the difference between a blind mouse and a sighted one until they loose money..new traders are impulsive and jump right in on any new info..not knowing for themselves..so I applaud your removing the vail so they can see that the mouse they are following is blind!! Actually we are all monkeys not mice..LOL

Cloggie,
I agree that the safest way to trade & especially to learn to trade is wait patiently for a strong trend, then JOIN it, don't try to fight it...
Check out a one minute chart below ... 50 above 200, both rising, just wait for the pullbacks & join in the next ride up. Simple, safe, effective .. you can see this happen many times over .. with a little patience.

However .. there does come a point at which a strong trend will either end or have a fairly major retracement .. and learning to spot those places can be an important part of successful trading, although I agree, not for someone just starting out!

So what I was asking NoStress is to explain further his method of identifying turning points. You say he has no method, he says he does .. but he has not explained it yet. I am always interested in someone's valid explanation of how to identify a turning point .. maybe it is something I can add to my own trading, maybe not .. depends on how complicated it is (I like simple!)

One reason I like turning point trading (my new term for it) is you can put a really tight stop .. either you are right or wrong, no sense waiting for 30, 50 or more pips to go against you. Again, check past charts (I'm talking to everyone now, not just Cloggie) .. when a move has run out of steam either direction, it just starts retracing, normally it does not give fake signals. So you identify your turning point, place a small position .. and if you are right you can add on retracements as it goes the other way. If you are wrong, you should lose no more than a few pips & can rinse/repeat as necessary until you are right. However if you have entered 3 times wrong, then something is not right with how you identify the turning points . so you need more input or more experience.

Just my 2 centavos (which any day now should be worth more than the dollar... )

His strategy is simple, just look at his posts, keep shorting it with a tight SL until he gets lucky. All of his calls here and in the EURUSD thread were calls against the trend before the reversal was confirmed. And all his calls were stopped out, but now a week later he comes in here and tells us he entered again and made 200 pips, yeah right.

An utter failure and an obvious losing strategy, now he does not like it when I call him on it, well tough sh!t, stop posting ridiculous attempts in picking your tops and I will stop publicly humiliating you.

But that is exactly where the noobs go wrong, they anticipate a reversal, try several times and get stopped out giving back to the market any money they would have made earlier in the day sticking with the intermediate trend. IF you do want to counter, wait for the price to come to you, don't go entering trades thinking that it might.

I found this article interesting....

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/what-...39660?FIELD9=3

thanks 4xstar!

So you are expecting the current down move to go all the way down to 1.4948 this week ?

1.5529 as a top would make more sense to me as a double top. the current top at 1.5470 is only a spike, so imho we still have one more up move left.

5 waves up from the May low are completed so expectations are for a 3 wave correction down to 14950 (4th wave low). 15250-15300 could provide short term support for a bounce in the near term. In the event of a new high, 15530 is resistance.

hello cloggie..
for first time, 1 disagreed with you..
it nothing personal..
i respect you for your knowledge and one of most successful trader i know
i play revesal for quite sometime...sure it risky play revesal..but with tight SL, it help me a lot..
yeah,not every trade i win..some win,some loss but for me what important is in there end off day..my acc grow and make money..
it is not i try to be a hero by counter it, but i try looking better entry and to control SL..
to be a revesal trader u must have experience and knowledge to spot where is there top and there bottom..u also need to have healthy mental coz % loss is bigger then win
also what important is control your SL..i use tight SL around 20pips max for SL or +1pips from current high or low.. but what important is at some point SL must change on BE..method i use when my op +20pips i change my sl to +1..with 50-200pips TP..
i use tf 15-4H looking for revesal point..and it play nicely..
loss 200-300usd/day and get profit 1000-2000usd/day..it enough for me
it not wrong to loss some trade..but what important is how and when we loss it..remember there basic concept of trade....buy low,sell high..so, it up to fellow trader how to know when to buy and when to sell..
also for me,other TA and FA, luck also play important role on daily trade..
again it nothing personal..just there way we play there game is different but same goal..is to make money.
for other trader, how follow there call..just want to said..
trade at your own risk and trade what you believe and see..
we dont need to be 100% right to become successful trader..only to know when to hit and run

i dont think he is questioning counter trend trading..accept that it is easier for a new trader to go with the trend than against it...why go in fighting price when u can go with it..

theres no right or wrong way to trade but it is far easier for a trader to go with the momentum as apposed to against it..

as general observation new traders generally go against the trend till they get killed then start going with it..if yur rules are to go counter good..if there not in yur rules, or u dont have any..
do new traders have rules to pick setups?

thats a whole another issue..

sometime we need to loss some to gain experience..experience make us mature in taking decision..that why i point if new trader that trying to counter it,use tight SL and must have knowleadge..dont jump blindly..
also dont follow other trader call..
we must responsible of our own trade..
use other trader opinion only for reference..
if there long, we must know why...is short,also why there short..
dont ever OP base on other trader call..
like i said before
trade at your own risk and trade what you believe and see
it your own money..so think twice in taking decision..

agreed

I think the true bottom line is always going to be the bottom line....

Open a demo account, in fact, open 2.

When you think you want to try a counter trade, take it, on that and the other, play with the trend.

See which one is easier to manage and prospers more by the EOW.

For your regular play, well, hell, keep doing what your doing, if you are reading this message, so far what you are doing is keeping you in the game.

Sunshine and smiles people, its going to be one Fawk of a week!

We are at very strong support & I am one of those that shorted early but I did anticipate a move up to 1.55 before we got a minor top! Here is my view for the week, I see us going to make a new high unless we just start breaking resistance levels like the 2 trendlines we are sitting on right now. If we break those we could see 1.51-1.50 again before the new highs! We should see 1.5559 & watch out for R4 & if we get regected at R5

'evenin all. I just love you guys..Magix,Cloggie. 4XStar. you are so way over my head in terms of experience and yet you express yourselves in a way i can understand. You are like some sort of head calming balm to me.
Big smiles and like Magix say..one Fawk of a week to us all.

Hi to all,

My problem with Cloogie was not trading itself but how a member should speak to an other. Humble, polite and respect. That's it.

We will not going to discuss about this for the next ten years. Enough up to now. Agree everyone?

Some ask question about my approach or method. I got respect to all members including 4xStar who asked me about it. Seen i'm coming here to share and not to fight or to humiliate (life is not only trading, remember), I can give some indications about my strategy. It is difficult to put all what you know in one post or two, and to explain it easily.

I apologize to not put a graphic for explaining but i taking for help your experience and knowledge in trading to understand it.

Again, no strategy is perfect. Every approach could failed.

One of the base of my approach was from two great traders: Soros and Livermore.
Soros was indicating that no matter how many times you are right and how many times you are wrong, but how much you win when you are right and how many times you loose when you are wrong.
Livermore was the trader who was the specialist for catching the turning point. To be in the reversal (if we try to take this style of trading), he was always testing the market. He loose money at the beginning. Not every time he could catch the turning point at the exact point, but he is always very near. When market turns, he is already in. When validated, he pyramid and pyramid with protecting himself with SL up to when he saw that the market will go at the opposite direction ..etc.

Then, why i said that i am target trader then swing or day trader or scalper? Because, the first target of my trading is to grow my account with certain percentage every week and every month. I prefer this approach for two reasons: The first is because i am not a full time trader (not yet, maybe one day who knows) and then i can not control at every time different points on my chart, but i manage my trade with my Iphone, only to close trade if my final TP was very near and seems not to be touched. The second is to keep always in mind my first target to grow my account which protect me against greed.

To have success in my approach, i need an excelent money management: ratio should be very high. To have this ratio, i have to accurate at the maximum my entry point, means i have to wait sometimes for a long time before entering. When i said that, it does not mean that i have to wait for two months lol !! But i wait for the best of the best of opportunity not only in one pair. I can wait two weeks or more for GU but trade EU or AJ or EC if i saw that i can get a good trade. Do not forget, i'm trading to make money, not to play with forex and i am not married with GU. I come to this room when i trade GU, went to EU room when trading EU and more than 90% of the time i don't come to FF and trade alone when i see a lot of noise. I had two bad experiences at the beginning (one in EU and an other in GU) when i saw something that other "big posters" traders did not see and instead of sticking to my plan, i change mind by this influence and lost money. From that time, i decide to give a total confidence on my self and not follow any one. I prefer passing my time to accurate my approach then coming here to discuss or giving my trades. That's why i have not a lot of posts. Also, at the beginning, i had a big SL, 50 pips maybe more, which was not good for long time. I had to change. I made a big plummet in my books, posts of Auslanco and karmostaji that i consider them as the best traders in FF and after coming back to put time to time a post here.

Let's come back to the trades. After the money management, something is very important: We are not in Casino, then NO GUESS. Why? Because i believe that there is no hazard in Forex, absolutely no hazard. Then no luck here. It is not the place to say, i'm going short with 10 times SL of 10 pips and i could win when i succeed in 200 pips. No. Forex can destroy you very easily with that approach.

Some traders were convinced that i am counter-trend. My approach is rejecting the meaning of the trend as classic school in trading. Why? If you believe on that, you can hardly imagine that the trend was over or is going to change now. The trend can change at anytime. The trend begin to change from the little TF (5 mn and after 15 mn and after 1 hr and after 4hr and after daily and after on weekly and maybe monthly). Before arriving at the daily confirmation, how many pips did you loose to be sure that trend has changed? What about sideways or range? What about lost motion which give a wrong indication and bad signal that trend could change? ..etc. That's why, i am not trading neither with the trend nor against the trend. I try every time to understand why the top was at that level and not higher or lower. Looks like simple or complicated, but i'm working like that. As i said before, hasard does not exist in Forex. Up to you to understand then, why we stop at that bottom or that top.

I have nothing more than you have to do this approach. I simply try to apply what i learn. What rule to apply and what rule to not apply at a determinated moment. That's it. I use FIB level, old tops and bottoms, the evidence of retrace, patterns, the support that becomes resistance if reached at certain amount of pips...etc. If not, then there is not yet confirmation to change direction and wait a pullback for a certain amount of pips (depends on the pair and its speed to achieve its target) to take same direction.

I try as possible as i can to have a confirmation with timing which is the most important thing. Calculate, timing, speed and pips variation in each TF is the best indicator and with that you can enter with a tight SL or very tight SL. What's the target for a double top if crossing the neckline, calculate the time for each top and both, establish the speed and compare it inside a bigger vision (calculate for example this in 1hr TF, but do not forget to compare it in daily TF). As FIB can calculate prices, it can calculate also timing. Try it, you will be wondered when you will discover results. This accurate approach can gives you the best enter to a trade with a very tight SL. If not, then you should make mistake in your calculation. Many times, i enter for test for two reason: testing if i was right or wrong (As Livermore said: you can't tell it, until you bet it), and second i don't loose position if price decide to begin its move.
Sometimes, i made a calculation of price and timing and when putting my pending order, i modify my entr order at the SL level and make again slightly higher and tighter my SL. Target trader is to have a very high ratio. Swing trader can permit himself to have a wider SL, Day trader too, a scalper wider more, but for myself 20 pips SL means at least 100 pips to win (by lot and without pyramiding), otherwise no entring. Don't forget, sometimes entering to test market can make some loss which should be including in you whole operation and not from the great amount of your account. Means, if you trade with a balance of 5000$ and expect to make (in mini account) 200 pips, don't forget, that if you loose 15 pips at the begining, you have to calculate that from the 200 pips won after and not from your 5000$ and said after i won 200 pips. You won only 185 pips. Wish you understand that.

Again, i'm not with or counter trend. I only try to understand why this top is made at that moment and why that bottom was made at that moment. When i change my approach and not stick to my strategy, i was not able to see changing in EU trend. Most of people were waiting for 1.16 before going higher including some great banks, but it stopped to 1.1875 not lower. I did not respect my approach, then i missed many opportunities.

My target is only to increase my balance. Not to go with the whole trend. 50% retrace before continuing the price direction is not acceptable for my target. Pyramiding also is very important and had to be calculated as a new trade and not as need to increase benefit covered by a succefull trades before. Always in front of me, the amount of the balance have to increase. A trade could take 30 mn or two days, no problem. Until market conditions did not change and we are in range for example, i stay. As soon as possible SL have to be removed to entry point. No winning becomes loss. No trader has to accept this, specially target trader. Most of the time is passed in calculation and trying to find opportunity. This is a great difference with a day trader. I can wait for somedays before trading GU, but don't forget, there is not only GU in forex. I can find good opportunity and less risky in EJ than trying GU. When GU shows a good entry, i come in. Otherwise, i follow it in the other screen until i receive invitation lol.

Pair in Forex are not football team to support. Every pair could be traded, like every stock. Up to you to stay with only one pair or to have your own strategy to be adapted with any pair you want to trade with taking care the specificity of every pair.

Maybe some informations missed as i said in the begining that i could not explain my whole approach in one or two posts. We are sunday, i had time to write this post, i don't think it will be possible to explain more during the week.


I hope that my post will be usefull for who come here to share. I did it.


Good trading for all.

You should look at U/J it looks like its ready to EXPLODE UP BIGTIME, can you do your thing on it because we are at a 9 month low I believe & quasie 3 triple bottom & or Inverted Head & Shoulders!

Let me be the first to come forth in deniable self-defamation.

I sometimes battle the ill-virtues to which cloggie often condemns;
but, I'm getting better... not at picking bottoms, tops or even
picking my beak... but sanitarily picking their proper order while
managing my risk.

So in life and also in the forex, I am an admitted contrarian.

"And when I die.... if I should drown in the river's strong current,
do search for my body upstream." LOL

Dr. D.

Poetry in motion. The Doc is in good form

How you keeping matey. Hope life has been treating you as well as the golfing gods! Personally, I couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo right now, but I always come back for more punishment. Managed to break a 100 today, to the wrong side... arghhhhh! From a birdie on one hole, to a 12 on the next