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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #321
  • Jul 13, 2010 6:18am Jul 13, 2010 6:18am
i hear 5 pivots mentioned alot,
are we talking elliot waves ?

thanks
  • #322
  • Jul 13, 2010 6:36am Jul 13, 2010 6:36am
Good question Pikeliver. The answer is no. Andrews noticed that after a P5, he expected price to turn. His count started with P0. It is not associated with the Elliott Wave concepts in their truest sense, he was just counting "significant" pivots. The commonality of "five" is simply a similarity in their observations of market behavior and that was the extent of it.

Hope that helps.

FX4Newbies

Quoting pikeliver
i hear 5 pivots mentioned alot,
are we talking elliot waves ?

thanks
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #323
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:43am Jul 13, 2010 8:43am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Good question Pikeliver. The answer is no. Andrews noticed that after a P5, he expected price to turn. His count started with P0. It is not associated with the Elliott Wave concepts in their truest sense, he was just counting "significant" pivots. The commonality of "five" is simply a similarity in their observations of market behavior and that was the extent of it.

Hope that helps.

FX4Newbies
You Can start looking for a pivot after P4
  • #324
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:47am Jul 13, 2010 8:47am
Look at the 3 touches off the UML - Blue line did give me a little concern
but the stop was 5 pips plus spread. As always looking for LML - green line now profit stop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FCY383154-45.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #325
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:53am Jul 13, 2010 8:53am
Profit stop moved
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FCY383154-46.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #326
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:58am Jul 13, 2010 8:58am
OUT - Thank you Dr. Andrews and Tim Morge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FCY383154-47.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #327
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:48am Jul 13, 2010 9:48am
Exactly so Wave Trader.

Quoting Wave Trader
You Can start looking for a pivot after P4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #328
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:52am Jul 13, 2010 9:52am
Very nice flow...textbook trade like you said. I think you have a good rhythm with the UsdChf. I agree...thank you Dr. Andrews and Tim Morge and other pitchfork pioneers.

Quoting Wave Trader
OUT - Thank you Dr. Andrews and Tim Morge
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #329
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:03am Jul 13, 2010 10:03am
Well,

Price missed the target by about 18 pips or so. Turned at P5 and went north. Price did hit the ML of new blue fork. That ML is a money magnet for sure.

Have a very busy day today and tomorrow. Will keep you posted with any updates.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: P5 On The Dime.jpg Size: 110 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #330
  • Edited 12:59pm Jul 13, 2010 12:47pm | Edited 12:59pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: img_12790430044789.gif Size: 17 KB


hi FX4,stupid question,i known you sell the upper line and buy the lower line,is the median line just the target or is there more to it ?
  • #331
  • Jul 13, 2010 1:07pm Jul 13, 2010 1:07pm
Pikeliver,

You are asking some very good questions. The Median Line (ML) actually acts as a magnet for price. It is a measure of central tendency. It has a pull on price. That is why in Andrews' philosophy, when price failed to reach the ML it was a big deal. He expected it to get there...at least 80% of the time for a fork that is drawn close to current price action.

Good going,

FX4Newbies

Quoting pikeliver
Attachment

hi FX4,stupid question,i known you sell the upper line and buy the lower line,is the median line just the target or is there more to it ?
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #332
  • Jul 13, 2010 1:14pm Jul 13, 2010 1:14pm
Hello again Ashes,

Just saw your new chart...

What you experienced is something many traders go through when they don't see the market first. Analysis should always be applied to the price action in such a way that it makes the underlying action more vivid. In a nutshell, that means paying attention to trend: higher highs and higher lows etc.

Drawing a fork on three pivots is good, but first you want to see the fork that frames where price is coming from, where it may be now and where it is likely to go. When that is done, then you can see clearly. What you may have drawn was a counter-trending fork, hence your stop was taken. Those forks too have a purpose believe it or not.

Hope my answer helps to steer you a little bit more to a clearer perspective on applying the Pitchfork.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

Quoting ashes
audusd 15min
trading the bounce off the upper tl @0,8736, might be the beginning of a new pitchfork, using it as trademanagement orientation. sl=20pips

edit:
sl hit
looks like the price has taken the other pitchfork path
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #333
  • Jul 13, 2010 1:46pm Jul 13, 2010 1:46pm
many thanks for answering my questions,i am having another positive week

i dont see any trigger lines on the charts posted,is there any reason why ?
  • #334
  • Edited 4:48pm Jul 13, 2010 2:00pm | Edited 4:48pm
Pikeliver,

The reason I don't put all the related lines on, is that some people are seeing a Pitchfork for the first time. I put Warning Lines in addition to the Pitchfork. Also two Fib lines inside the fork. Every line that is added is a teaching session almost. Don't want to get into that too much here. If anyone is interested in learning to use Pitchforks and how to trade in a systematic way, they can send me a private message. It is amazing that traders can know lots of technicals, but don't have a systematic, credible approach or recipe. That generally happens when you start off grabbing this here and that there. I will not present information like that because it is not the best approach in the long-run. Not to mention no attention to the psychology of the business. When I teach, I deal with it all, because developing the trader as you teach is, in my mind, the most effective method.

If traders don't understand why they are drawing this or that, or why they are looking for this or that, they're already lunch meat. They don't know what information they need to process to make what decisions.

Thanks for asking and congrats on another positive week,

FX4Newbies

Quoting pikeliver
many thanks for answering my questions,i am having another positive week

i dont see any trigger lines on the charts posted,is there any reason why ?
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #335
  • Jul 14, 2010 4:22am Jul 14, 2010 4:22am
Hello again traders,

Attached is an updated chart since we completed P5 and price turned on a dime! Bullish sentiment on Monthly chart at the moment...will see how this plays out as price has been falling now for several months. This upward move could be retracement of the fall. Time will tell...just thinking out loud .

May not be able to post again until next until London Session...very busy day today.

Take care and be safe,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: London Session July 14th.jpg Size: 88 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #336
  • Jul 14, 2010 4:44am Jul 14, 2010 4:44am
hello FX4N
good to see you have your own thread going here, i to am a forker at heart.
i'll be interested to see how many trades u pull out of E-U on the 1 hr in a week, not many i'd imagine.
i wish u the best, and may even join you occassionally if i may.
  • #337
  • Jul 14, 2010 4:54am Jul 14, 2010 4:54am
Hey PeterE,

Glad to meet another forker at heart! It is amazing how many people don't really understand the power of this tool.

Regarding the number of trades on EU off the H1 in a week...will start paying more attention to that. Three or four trades a week with let's say 100+ pips each on two or three pairs...not bad for a week's work. Not a bad initial goal .

Thanks for the well wishes and would certainly enjoy seeing your posts as your schedule would permit.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

P.S. Pitchforks do keep things simple.

Quoting PeterE
hello FX4N
good to see you have your own thread going here, i to am a forker at heart.
i'll be interested to see how many trades u pull out of E-U on the 1 hr in a week, not many i'd imagine.
i wish u the best, and may even join you occassionally if i may.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #338
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:02am Jul 14, 2010 5:02am
what!?

EU 1hr ~3 trades/wk x +100 each

and if you feel motivated you might just look at another cpl pairs

= +300 x 3 pairs = a casual +900 pips/wk

what!?
  • #339
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:16am Jul 14, 2010 5:16am
It is very doable. It is just a matter of organizing your day. I have a few things that I am working on at the moment. Clearing my plate so I can really get cracking! The key is to wait for your set-up...let the market come to you. I believe the EU moves at least 100-150 pips a day. If you got 2 entries off the H1, and at least 50 pips each, there you are. Add two or three pairs...well, you have done the math.

Quoting PeterE
what!?

EU 1hr ~3 trades/wk x +100 each

and if you feel motivated you might just look at another cpl pairs

= +300 x 3 pairs = a casual +900 pips/wk

what!?
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #340
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:24am Jul 14, 2010 5:24am
Quoting FX4Newbies
It is very doable. It is just a matter of organizing your day. I have a few things that I am working on at the moment. Clearing my plate so I can really get cracking!

my friend, do not take this the wrong way, .........are you sure you are not being starry eyed?

i've been around long enough to know that 900pips/wk is unlikely to be achieved "consistently" by one individual, and applying good risk management and with the logistics of managing multiple markets/pairs/trades on your own.

what sort of consistency do you have achieving 900pips/wk?? or do you simply "believe" you can achieve this.

again this is not a criticism, i am fully supportive of your success.
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