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USD/CHF

  • #441
  • Jul 6, 2010 2:56am Jul 6, 2010 2:56am
I'm expecting further downside. My SL is pretty high since I have a major position (short) and have been shorting off and on since the intervention ended.

Maybe it will slow and maybe it will turn in a couple months, but right now there's no reason to bet against the trend.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #442
  • Jul 7, 2010 6:03pm Jul 7, 2010 6:03pm
Snake pattern here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH1.png Size: 164 KB
  • #443
  • Jul 7, 2010 7:17pm Jul 7, 2010 7:17pm
This is the confirmation I was looking for.

I have been posting on this pair over a week now with every setup short riding this massive ride back down.

SNB - OK here we want to assess EUR/CHF action.

Swissy (USD/CHF) I am short bias and now I have my daily confirmation break....
Just flipped out and "blamed the broker" Yet my silly test TP was hit in profit!

Looking for a Large move down. TO PARITY perhaps.

We'll see. X

Here re 2 snapshots.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF_flatline_DAILY REZ.GIF Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF_BREAKTHRU_daily.GIF Size: 43 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #444
  • Jul 7, 2010 7:27pm Jul 7, 2010 7:27pm
If you plot a daily chart you will see this was the LAST FIRM support to crack.

I will add it...

Also SNB wants a weaker CHF - they "may" if necessary, "prop" up the EUR.

But this pair is Going DOWNSKI!!!

Let's all make pips and exchange setups.

This is more for Daily or 1 trade intraday (with setup from prior day) riders.
not for scalpers At all.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #445
  • Jul 7, 2010 7:42pm Jul 7, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting XTrade
If you plot a daily chart you will see this was the LAST FIRM support to crack.

I will add it...

Also SNB wants a weaker CHF - they "may" if necessary, "prop" up the EUR.

But this pair is Going DOWNSKI!!!

Let's all make pips and exchange setups.

This is more for Daily or 1 trade intraday (with setup from prior day) riders.
not for scalpers At all.

If the SNB want a weaker CHF wouldn't it be a bit dangerous to be shorting the lows now?
  • #446
  • Jul 7, 2010 7:45pm Jul 7, 2010 7:45pm
All you needed to know to light this pair up was when intervention was announced as being stopped when this thing was near 1.1700. No charts. No fundamentals. No guesswork.

Actually, guesswork cost me a few mistakes but I still made out. Now I'm just shorting the heck out of it and not even watching the market.

Just keep using your trailing stop loss and locking in pips. Might we see 1.0000 by the end of the month?
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #447
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:21pm Jul 7, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting learntowin
Seems that it could not manage to pass 1.0855

Tried 1/3 Short again @ 1.0830

USD/CHF is falling

Lucky again with my Short on Bounce @ 1.0830 https://www.kitcomm.com/images/smilies/smile.gif
  • #448
  • Jul 8, 2010 5:49pm Jul 8, 2010 5:49pm
Daily CCI(14) shows divergence (ascending valleys 2010.06.10; 2010.06.17; 2010.07.01).

Take the risk over with 5 positions enter long at 1.0498 just now.

Be aware market price could go further down till 1.0438 (DS2), next 1.0305 (DS3) & 1.0176 bottom line of Bollinger Band (weekly).

1.0498 seems to be a good price.

Target: 1.15
  • #449
  • Jul 8, 2010 10:03pm Jul 8, 2010 10:03pm
Still just kicking back with an easy short.

There's no reason, IMHO, to think this pair is going that much higher anytime soon since the last time we were there was due to heavy intervention. While SNB may indeed intervene, there's nothing suggesting that it will be at that level of intensity.

And if that did happen, there's no need to bottom pick. You can just wait to see it and ride the wave up. Pretty easy.

Also CHF has become a proxy flight to safety of some sort. Just waiting around to see what happens toward the end of the year with the Eurozone and the predicted decline.

Of course I guess you could always take a chance on range trading if that's your thing.

No charts were harmed in the formulation of this position.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #450
  • Jul 9, 2010 6:00am Jul 9, 2010 6:00am
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4982/usdchfh4.pnghttp://http://img84.imageshack.us/im...2/usdchfh4.pngIMO,

The MT Trend is still resuming Down

May need to test the important Ressistance to confirm http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4982/usdchfh4.png
  • #451
  • Jul 11, 2010 5:32pm Jul 11, 2010 5:32pm
EUR/USd and USD/CHF used to have strong negative correlation. I guess about 6 months ago it used to be 95.5%.

Offlate the correlation has reduced because Euro is taking a deep plunge due to economic conditions and Swiss Franc is still holding relatively good.

Does anyone has latest numbers of the correlation between these two currency pairs?
  • #452
  • Jul 12, 2010 2:18am Jul 12, 2010 2:18am
I am really liking this as a long right now. With last weeks bullish close on the weekly I am going to stay long from here with SL below last weeks low and just see what happens. For me the Risk Reward is very much in my favor for a long term hold.
  • #453
  • Jul 12, 2010 2:50am Jul 12, 2010 2:50am
Quoting learntowin
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4982/usdchfh4.pnghttp://http://img84.imageshack.us/im...2/usdchfh4.pngIMO,

The MT Trend is still resuming Down

May need to test the important Ressistance to confirm http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4982/usdchfh4.png

Testing
  • #454
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:54pm Jul 12, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting learntowin
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4982/usdchfh4.pnghttp://http://img84.imageshack.us/im...2/usdchfh4.pngIMO,

The MT Trend is still resuming Down

May need to test the important Ressistance to confirm http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4982/usdchfh4.png

Tested

and....

Fell
  • #455
  • Jul 15, 2010 3:43am Jul 15, 2010 3:43am
WE have broken important supports now.


This pair may see parity in the near future.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #456
  • Edited 6:06am Jul 15, 2010 4:00am | Edited 6:06am
besides the .05 line there is more support at .0480 on the swissy.

Edit: If we can close below this level on a higher TF we should be locked in for more Downward momentum.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #457
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:18pm Jul 15, 2010 11:18pm
Quoting forexmarket;
EUR/USd and USD/CHF used to have strong negative correlation. I guess about 6 months ago it used to be 95.5%.

Offlate the correlation has reduced because Euro is taking a deep plunge due to economic conditions and Swiss Franc is still holding relatively good.

Does anyone has latest numbers of the correlation between these two currency pairs?
You can just look at some daily figures to see. I noticed it stopped last month, most likely because the SNB stopped intervening, which is probably what caused the opposite correlation to begin with.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #458
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:19pm Jul 15, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting XTrade;
besides the .05 line there is more support at .0480 on the swissy.

Edit: If we can close below this level on a higher TF we should be locked in for more Downward momentum.
Works for me. I've just been kicking back and enjoying the ride down. Haven't spent one second looking at a chart.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #459
  • Jul 16, 2010 12:37pm Jul 16, 2010 12:37pm
Looks like we have an interesting formation in the makings here. Possible inv.H&S in the makings.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this pair bullish for next week or so thus forming the neckline which would, if everything goes as planned around the 1.067 level. Then, the pair might go for a retest @ the 1.048 level thus completing the formation. Just as a reminder, 1.067 was this weeks high thus making it potential resistance.

If this indeed completes, we will see a bullish pair after the formation is complete.

Also, there is an H4 bullish MACD divergence pointing towards 1.1136.

Lets see how this unfolds.

Cheers and have a nice weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_chf_h4_16_07_2010_inv_h&s.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #460
  • Jul 17, 2010 1:39am Jul 17, 2010 1:39am
Anything is possible.

Fundamentally, the Swiss Franc is far more powerful. Also, the franc is better than the euro, which is better than the weakening dollar.

There's no fundamental reason for upside at this time, so if it's going to pop up, it will be on a technical basis. And the upside should be limited. It's been ranging over the past weeks while slightly inching downward (had a moment under 1.0400 this week).

I'm expecting it to maybe range up slightly before coming back down. US housing permits and starts and existing home sales will be released this week and the numbers won't be surprising anyone to the upside.

Meanwhile, you have light CHF news and a euro poised for a 1.3 breakout AND stronger news out of the eurozone. Fundamentally, CHF could see a 1.03xx trade by Thursday.

One thing is for sure, there's been a nice range over the past couple of weeks for those who like to trade more often. I'm just sitting comfortably in my short positions and have no plans to leave anytime soon.
Only expectation matters . . .
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