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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #237,141
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:40am Jul 12, 2010 6:40am
I guess we have to wait till the big boys in the US begin in 20 minutes, then we should see some volume
  • #237,142
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:45am Jul 12, 2010 6:45am
I love it when traders see price jump a channel and immediately think of a trend change, why not look at the jump as a better opportunity to get a better price to continue with the trend? By all means trade the break of the trend, just don't marry your new positions until you have seen a solid confirmation of the change in trend. In this case, I shorted the break of the channel, but I am not going to see that as a long term trend until we have seen a swing high that is lower then the previous and break the swing low followed by one more consecutive lower swing high to form a new trend. Until then I just play what the charts tell me and we have had a bull run all morning ever since my asslevel was solidly rejected by the LO.

For a new trend to form we need 2 solid rejections of a TL, for a proper longer term direction we need 2 of the top and 2 of the bottom to form a channel of some sorts indicating a reversal in trend. Looking at the higher TF, like the weekly we are bullish, the daily lTL is still nicely holding, the H4 has not formed a new swing low, so the trend is still up. Now trading this just means finding 2 consecutive lower TF's with corresponding trends and trade the trend within the trend, changing a longer term bias takes a lot more then a bit of a retrace.
  • #237,143
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:45am Jul 12, 2010 6:45am
nice went short from 5191 0.2lot
and long from 4989 0.3lot
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #237,144
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:51am Jul 12, 2010 6:51am
it seems we've got 3 white soldiers on the hourly chart
  • #237,145
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:51am Jul 12, 2010 6:51am
Quoting cloggie
I love it when traders see price jump a channel and immediately think of a trend change, why not look at the jump as a better opportunity to get a better price to continue with the trend? By all means trade the break of the trend, just don't marry your new positions until you have seen a solid confirmation of the change in trend. In this case, I shorted the break of the channel, but I am not going to see that as a long term trend until we have seen a swing high that is lower then the previous and break the swing low followed by one more consecutive...
To which jump you are referring to?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #237,146
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:56am Jul 12, 2010 6:56am
Quoting USD-Bear
To which jump you are referring to?

I am referring to the break of the channel on H4 that was initially formed in the middle of May, we had a break of that channel in the first week of June but it failed to from a new lower high so the trend just carried on. Now we are in a similar situation, we had a break of the lTL on the H4 channel, but a new lower swing high has not formed yet, starting the process of a trend change, until then we are still going up.
  • #237,147
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:57am Jul 12, 2010 6:57am
Quoting Huey
it seems we've got 3 white soldiers on the hourly chart
I don't see it. Post a chart.
  • #237,148
  • Jul 12, 2010 6:59am Jul 12, 2010 6:59am
Quoting Huey
it seems we've got 3 white soldiers on the hourly chart

Not only that, the perfect tweezer bottoms on the hourly would have been an earlier signal for a bullish reversal on the hourly, before the 3 soldiers showed up.
  • #237,149
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:01am Jul 12, 2010 7:01am
Today is a perfect example of probability trading, what has the greater probability of success? CT's or trendtraders waiting for an entry? Even if your math skills, like mine, are lacking to figure out the exact probs, just waiting for the trend on different TL's to realign themselves again with the larger trend would have given you a greater return for less risk then trying to CT this. Now everyone has their own strategy and setup and I am not going to teach the succesful CT's how to suck eggs, but for the majority of traders here, finding and following an existing trend is a lot easier to spot and trade. Sometimes using too many indy's and trying to be too clever for one's own good, can keep a trader from seeing the trees from the forest.

Even if this ultimately result in a trend change on H4 and the Daily, price still needs to form that change and in order to do that it needs to form a lower swing high, a fresh TL and possible even a new channel, so finding a place where that process can start from gives a trend trader a good opportunity to find his entries. Then keeping an eye on the PA for confirmation of the trend change process will give the CT's a good entry again.
  • #237,150
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:20am Jul 12, 2010 7:20am
Hi all ,,,

1.5050 is a very nice resistance area to start shoring again, it goes back to 12may

I place an order there with tiny stop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #237,151
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:21am Jul 12, 2010 7:21am
Quoting cloggie
Today is a perfect example of probability trading, what has the greater probability of success? CT's or trendtraders waiting for an entry? Even if your math skills, like mine, are lacking to figure out the exact probs, just waiting for the trend on different TL's to realign themselves again with the larger trend would have given you a greater return for less risk then trying to CT this. Now everyone has their own strategy and setup and I am not going to teach the succesful CT's how to suck eggs, but for the majority of traders here, finding and...
Good Morning cloggie,

your market explanation is always to the point.
Clean and logical. In theory i can follow,
in practice itīs tough to get the right timing/entry.
Wish i only had 10% of your fx skills.

BTW, what are we doing with Paul the octopuss,
he was right another time. He predicts all games right.
Think we make a spanish paella out of him (no,no, only joking!)
  • #237,152
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:22am Jul 12, 2010 7:22am
Well... I think I am going to get some sleep. Had 2 small losers this morning, but just closed 5 open trades in some really nice profit. There is probably more upside I would guess, but 15M chart might give us a pullback now with some ranging and bouncing for a while. Who knows.. maybe it will go straight up... lol

Anyway, going to take my profits... wow it will start to be something when I don't take the few losers I took earlier.. maybe I just need to sit out Sunday night and Monday Asian.

Happy Pippin' and will see you all a bit later.. nighty night
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #237,153
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:25am Jul 12, 2010 7:25am
Quoting dag777
Good Morning cloggie,

your market explanation is always to the point.
Clean and logical. In theory i can follow,
in practice itīs tough to get the right timing/entry.
Wish i only had 10% of your fx skills.

BTW, what are we doing with Paul the octopuss,
he was right another time. He predicts all games right.
Think we make a spanish paella out of him (no,no, only joking!)
Before you can even figure out your entries and exits, you need to find your "style", what sort of trader are you? Once you answer that question can you find a way to identify your entries and exits. I am a simple trendtrader, with the occasional countertrend if a solid TL is broken and there is a good enough reason to follow the counter. I do take less pips out of the CT then I do out of the trend following trades. I just find the trend on a time frame and trade the entries on a lower one. Today the hourly is up, so my entries come from the M5/15 in the direction of the trend. Last Friday, the H4 topped out and the Hourly retraced so I took the countertrend of the M15/M30.

As a "newer" trader you need to perfect one "style" first before becoming creative. I would highly recommend that you try to figure out how to be a trendtrader first and if the day goes against your trend, just give it a miss, or find another pair that does meet your requirements. To trade Cable succesfully you need to study the LO thoroughly.

Paella does sound appealing, the better team did win last night I must admit.
  • #237,154
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:28am Jul 12, 2010 7:28am
Quoting damonl
Well... I think I am going to get some sleep. Had 2 small losers this morning, but just closed 5 open trades in some really nice profit. There is probably more upside I would guess, but 15M chart might give us a pullback now with some ranging and bouncing for a while. Who knows.. maybe it will go straight up... lol

Anyway, going to take my profits... wow it will start to be something when I don't take the few losers I took earlier.. maybe I just need to sit out Sunday night and Monday Asian.

Happy Pippin' and will see you all a bit later.. nighty...
My view for what it is worth is that we will see a bounce off today's high at 1.5080. It that goes we are looking back to 1.5240.
  • #237,155
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:38am Jul 12, 2010 7:38am
Quoting OldReigatian
My view for what it is worth is that we will see a bounce off today's high at 1.5080. It that goes we are looking back to 1.5240.
i'm long from 15000 tp 15080 if it breaks and holds all the better
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #237,156
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:44am Jul 12, 2010 7:44am
hi all

i might be wrong , i am taken it hour by hour but that what i see for longer term
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  • #237,157
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:47am Jul 12, 2010 7:47am
Afternoon folks..trust u all had a good weekend..

i see we moved down..1.50 expected to hold as support, lower trendline likely to touch b4 moving upward..

place the seat belts..

chart2 show potential setup which may happen..watch for PA around 1.5
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #237,158
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:52am Jul 12, 2010 7:52am
Quoting kill56
hi all

i might be wrong , i am taken it hour by hour but that what i see for longer term
u were right about the fall bro..hope u caught the wave
  • #237,159
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:52am Jul 12, 2010 7:52am
I'll be watching 15080-15100 for shorts... fib, res, and round number confluence.
My Daily bias is long though, support and rejection of BRN and horizontal level 15000, trend turning bullish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd2.jpg Size: 44 KB
  • #237,160
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:54am Jul 12, 2010 7:54am
would bp bid push cable up
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