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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #236,161
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:07am Jul 7, 2010 8:07am
Quoting baruch
so should I consider "broke" when the candle close after the channel?
That channel has been here for over 30 hours, it is not going to give way on the first halfhearted attempt of a bar on M5 to be considered "broken". For the price to have jumped the channel I would want to see a full bar above on M15, followed by a retest as support and then a continuance. Any trade here gambling that it will jump the channel is just not high enough in my probability book. A new channel cannot form unless it is tested once entered.
  • #236,162
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:11am Jul 7, 2010 8:11am
Quoting cloggie
That channel has been here for over 30 hours, it is not going to give way on the first halfhearted attempt of a bar on M5 to be considered "broken". For the price to have jumped the channel I would want to see a full bar above on M15, followed by a retest as support and then a continuance. Any trade here gambling that it will jump the channel is just not high enough in my probability book.
Hum... I understood your point...
Like in the begining of the channel, 1 candle broke it, the second was a pin bar, and the third back to channel...
To consider "broken" it must be broken and the price should persist off the channel. Is that?
  • #236,163
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:12am Jul 7, 2010 8:12am
Quoting cloggie
Not yet, the price will tell you when she is ready.
yeah u need to let her complete her shower first .......
  • #236,164
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:15am Jul 7, 2010 8:15am
nice long setup...place my order set tp below resistance and wait

maybe gonna make triple top before tanking
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  • #236,165
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:22am Jul 7, 2010 8:22am
Doesn't look like she is going anywhere.... going to move in a range for the rest of the day???? No big news scheduled to today..
  • #236,166
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:24am Jul 7, 2010 8:24am
Quoting peach
Doesn't look like she is going anywhere.... going to move in a range for the rest of the day???? No big news scheduled to today..

It is summer and if you find today tough to trade with over 200 pips of opportunity, you better get ready for another 8 weeks of this.
  • #236,167
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:27am Jul 7, 2010 8:27am
Yea.. I know.. I am not good in a ranging market....

Quoting cloggie
It is summer and if you find today tough to trade with over 200 pips of opportunity, you better get ready for another 8 weeks of this.
  • #236,168
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:28am Jul 7, 2010 8:28am
Quoting peach
Yea.. I know.. I am not good in a ranging market....

Summer separates the men from the boys (sorry 4X).

If you are no good in ranging markets, just enjoy the summer and wait for labor day. Price moves just the same now, just a lot .. s.. l.... o ..... w ...... e ........... r
  • #236,169
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:42am Jul 7, 2010 8:42am
Quoting cloggie
Summer separates the men from the boys (sorry 4X).

If you are no good in ranging markets, just enjoy the summer and wait for labor day. Price moves just the same now, just a lot .. s.. l.... o ..... w ...... e ........... r
lol...
  • #236,170
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:49am Jul 7, 2010 8:49am
Quoting cloggie
Summer separates the men from the boys (sorry 4X).

If you are no good in ranging markets, just enjoy the summer and wait for labor day. Price moves just the same now, just a lot .. s.. l.... o ..... w ...... e ........... r
i thought u r a man

why do u need to go in labour ?????????????????
  • #236,171
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:52am Jul 7, 2010 8:52am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Seems our guy who was holding cable tightly has left the building sooner than I thought.
It's acting normal now up/down with indicies.

Tomm when BOE doesn't raise rates, I hope to see downside along with the indicies. Picture ain't pretty for UK with all the austerity meassures. Niether for USA with mountain debt for that matter.

Don't expect much buying above 152 level. Even if it's there it's fake.




Quoting ams
Why cable isn't flying when futures are rocketing?
It flies when indices starts going down….something very very dodgy…let's wait for Thursday things will be a bit more clear after that.
  • #236,172
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:03am Jul 7, 2010 9:03am
Quoting cloggie
This chart has worked fine now for 8 weeks (keep posting it here) and it has 50606 on it as an area of possible reversal, I may have to redraw the right channel slightly based on that fake break from last week, but I'll see how it holds this time. Not going to short here this close to my asslevel. If Cable continues to behave like it has in the past 4 weeks it will respect the channel and we are looking at 5147 and 5265 next. Just holding fire for now.

Well, 1st target reached. For the second one to have any hope today 5228 has to give first and I am not holding out for that just yet. It took 5 hours to get to 5147 so 5228 is still miles away. And before we even get to 5265 TY will have given us the obligatory retrace first.
  • #236,173
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:04am Jul 7, 2010 9:04am
Quoting forexlion
i thought u r a man

why do u need to go in labour ?????????????????

ok...ok..back to our trade please..peace all.

everyone got the own skill to trade and master of their own system. What ever written just people opinion. peace please

my h4 setup is looking good
  • #236,174
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:12am Jul 7, 2010 9:12am
Not a good level to short anyone? Advise please. Thanks.
  • #236,175
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:13am Jul 7, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Najee
Not a good level to short anyone? Advise please. Thanks.

Is there anything significant on your chart that is going to stop this move that started 5 hours ago, right here, right now? Or are you asking because of Murphy's trading law?
  • #236,176
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:16am Jul 7, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Najee
Not a good level to short anyone? Advise please. Thanks.
set your sell limit at 5228 resistance
  • #236,177
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:18am Jul 7, 2010 9:18am
Quoting cloggie
Is there anything significant on your chart that is going to stop this move that started 5 hours ago, right here, right now? Or are you asking because of Murphy's trading law?
Hi cloggie, just checking on what others are thinking. It's just that my stoch on H1 is almost reversing, however the MACD is slowly pointing upwards. That's all.
  • #236,178
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:20am Jul 7, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Najee
Hi cloggie, just checking on what others are thinking. It's just that my stoch on H1 is almost reversing, however the MACD is slowly pointing upwards. That's all.

But stoch and Macd only tell you that the speed of the price change is changing not the direction, they are useless as price indicators, just for price momentum. By the time these thingymajigs tell you we are going in the opposite direction, you would have missed half the move. Just look at your chart, is there anything stopping this and reversing this right here right now? If the answer is yes, short it, if it is no either stay out or long it. Focus on the price, not on the rate of change.
  • #236,179
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:24am Jul 7, 2010 9:24am
Quoting cloggie
But stoch and Macd only tell you that the speed of the price change is changing not the direction, they are useless as price indicators, just for price momentum. By the time these thingymajigs tell you we are going in the opposite direction, you would have missed half the move.
Since I'm new to this, what indicators are you using/do you look for trend direction, if you don't mind telling me. Thanks.
  • #236,180
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:26am Jul 7, 2010 9:26am
Quoting Najee
Since I'm new to this, what indicators are you using/do you look for trend direction, if you don't mind telling me. Thanks.

None, just how price interacts with SR's (ma, fib, TL and pattern based) Indies tell me what has happened not what is happening, using an indy is like driving down the motorway at 100mph using your rearview mirror.

Now that is me, because it works for me, plenty here are happy using Indies. So I am not the right person to ask. I just look at a price level, see how the price interacts and if it is respected I find the next logical level it needs to reach before I change my bias, if you go back over my posts you can clearly see my thinking and I call plenty of levels that will be reached once and if a certain level or pattern is respected. This morning I posted here that if the channel is respected 5147 would be next. How do I know that? Because of the way cable behaves, once certain key levels are respected the probability of the next one to be reached is fairly high and fairly obvious to call. 5147 for example has been in play since the first week of March this year, so a respect of the channel that started 8 weeks ago would lead to an obvious target of the next logical level, being 5147. The next level I am looking at is 5228, why? because the H4 has tried to reach that for a week now and she is not going to come all this way without testing it at least. Before we get to 5228, 5217 needs to give.
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