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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #235,881
  • Jul 6, 2010 10:59am Jul 6, 2010 10:59am
Quoting wormboy
...Plenty of upside targets to build on if the channel breaks that I don't think buying about 100 pips further up to build large positions are going to be costly.

Good luck to all
Spoken like a pro .. having the patience to wait for higher probability & knowing 'there will always be plenty' , you don't have to chase every little pip...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #235,882
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:01am Jul 6, 2010 11:01am
Short gu .Bearish engulfing on 1hr and shooting star on 4hr.Targetting the bottom of the range and below.
  • #235,883
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:03am Jul 6, 2010 11:03am
The battlefield is playing out, we had a break of the uTL, a fake and a retest as any self respecting resistance should behave, however the test of the lTL failed and the 28.2 extension was never reached, in no small part by the 5228 holding, so she tested the lTL as resistance once more and now for the first time today we are in new territory. Longs are not having much of a chance here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #235,884
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:05am Jul 6, 2010 11:05am
I want to share this with all GBPUSD traders on this forum. This is my interpretation of the picture for the short short term. I have highlighted the S/R and various trading channels. I hope somebody will find it useful.
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  • #235,885
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:11am Jul 6, 2010 11:11am
Quoting cloggie
The M15 battlefield is playing out, we had a break of the uTL, a fake and a retest as any self respecting resistance should behave, however the test of the lTL failed and the 28.2 extension was never reached, in no small part by the 5228 holding, so she tested the lTL as resistance once more and now for the first time today we are in new territory. Longs are not having much of a chance here.

so long as this doesnt break the red line below it can still be bullish..could and most likely a trap..but at this point all i say is thanks god im not looking for a position..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #235,886
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:13am Jul 6, 2010 11:13am
Quoting OldReigatian
sitting this out, still think there could be push back to the down side
Will she bounce back up? Not convinced, I think we should all be booking our shorts

although GU does like to retrace and we are currently at about 30% retrace on the day
  • #235,887
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:13am Jul 6, 2010 11:13am
Quoting nAVIN2007
so long as this doesnt break the red line below it can still be bullish..could and most likely a trap..but at this point all i say is thanks god im not looking for a position..
I totally agree, this could go anywhere, however that said the immediate intraday play favours a short. I am flat too on cable and have been for hours, the bull flag break was helped by the fundies and was not entirely a techie play.
  • #235,888
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:15am Jul 6, 2010 11:15am
All this fibre strength and GBP weakness is doing good for my EG trade, now of course I wish I had taken a larger position

Quoting 4xStar
I have a small long on EG based on weekly price only, & continued fibre strength. Not touching GU until she decides what she 'really' wants to do...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #235,889
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:16am Jul 6, 2010 11:16am
Quoting gotpips92
Still waiting for 1.50

Don't tell me you never closed that short at 5006 when you had the chance after having it seen run 220 pips against you?
  • #235,890
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:22am Jul 6, 2010 11:22am
Quoting cloggie
Don't tell me you never closed that short at 5006 when you had the chance after having it seen run 220 pips against you?
I was away from the interweb all day and when I checked it again it was about to break 1.5090 so I slept.
  • #235,891
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:30am Jul 6, 2010 11:30am
Quoting gotpips92
I was away from the interweb all day and when I checked it again it was about to break 1.5090 so I slept.

That is the problem with going to sleep on a bad trade with no stops, it is still there in the morning.
  • #235,892
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:32am Jul 6, 2010 11:32am
Quoting cloggie
That is the problem with going to sleep on a bad trade with no stops, it is still there in the morning.
true. S/l is at 1.53, t/p near b/e. Pretty horrid r/r ratio
  • #235,893
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:34am Jul 6, 2010 11:34am
Quoting 4xStar
Spoken like ...
Thank You
  • #235,894
  • Edited 11:54am Jul 6, 2010 11:35am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting gotpips92
true. S/l is at 1.53, t/p near b/e. Pretty horrid r/r ratio

Don't fret you are not the only one, the hardest thing to learn in trading is to admit that you are wrong, your brain will do anything it can to avoid admitting defeat. It is kind of funny, lots of traders can't see a new trend until they have closed a trade that they have carried deep in the red, then all of a sudden it dawns on them and they kick themselves for not seeing it sooner. Overcome that and just see a loss as a cost of doing business and a learning exercise and you will turn the corner. Finding a way to admit errors quickly and happily is the hardest thing to do.

Once a trade goes in the red you will only see the next SR as a confirmation that you were right originally because it "will" turn around there, every opportunity to get out of your trade your brain will only translate as an opportunity to be proven right, because that is what you really want to see.

Look at this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=241411

This guy is so convinced he is infallible having had a few trades go in his favour that he will carry a loser deep in the red and will continue to add to it because he just cannot admit defeat, his brain will not allow him to see that he is hopelesly on his way to blowing an account one 1 trade.

When you have backtested a strategy thoroughly and have found that 4 out of 10 trades are losers, you welcome a run of 5-6 losers because statistically speaking you are going to turn the corner, most traders however will see 6 losers in a row as a sign that their strategy is no longer working and will tinker with their setups only to add to the losers.
  • #235,895
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:46am Jul 6, 2010 11:46am
Hey Navin so how is ur trading going ? I see u r still on here. Hope u r still not holding losing positions forever. I think will still have an up move for today, as long as 1.5150 holds. Might see a double top or 225 tested again, before we drop to 1.506 area, then up again. Of course great place to sell would be 1.5325 if it ever makes it and a great place to buy is at 1.5050. However I would be very careful around the 1.5250 area as we could also be forming a ascending triangle. But only time will tell. Good luck and happy trading. I
Quoting nAVIN2007
so long as this doesnt break the red line below it can still be bullish..could and most likely a trap..but at this point all i say is thanks god im not looking for a position..
  • #235,896
  • Jul 6, 2010 12:07pm Jul 6, 2010 12:07pm
First 2 paragraphs have been copy/pasted into my 'Forex-Read Daily!' file.

Quoting cloggie
Don't fret you are not the only one, the hardest thing to learn in trading is to admit that you are wrong, your brain will do anything it can to avoid admitting defeat. It is kind of funny, lots of traders can't see a new trend until they have closed a trade that they have carried deep in the red, then all of a sudden it dawns on them and they kick themselves for not seeing it sooner. Overcome that and just see a loss as a cost of doing business and a learning exercise and you will turn the corner. Finding a way to admit errors quickly and happily...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #235,897
  • Jul 6, 2010 12:07pm Jul 6, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting dobbie11
Hey Navin so how is ur trading going ? I see u r still on here. Hope u r still not holding losing positions forever. I think will still have an up move for today, as long as 1.5150 holds. Might see a double top or 225 tested again, before we drop to 1.506 area, then up again. Of course great place to sell would be 1.5325 if it ever makes it and a great place to buy is at 1.5050. However I would be very careful around the 1.5250 area as we could also be forming a ascending triangle. But only time will tell. Good luck and happy trading. I
doing well bro..mentally a lot stronger..i trust yur doing well as well..which is evident from yur analysis

good to see u around also buddy
  • #235,898
  • Jul 6, 2010 12:14pm Jul 6, 2010 12:14pm
Come in from time to time to see how the old chat room is. I still see it really has not changed, everyone trying to learn but then the few that want to fight and put others down. But all in all a good place to learn.
Quoting nAVIN2007
doing well bro..mentally a lot stronger..i trust yur doing well as well..which is evident from yur analysis

good to see u around also buddy
  • #235,899
  • Jul 6, 2010 12:20pm Jul 6, 2010 12:20pm
still bullish... i think until 5156 taken-out
  • #235,900
  • Jul 6, 2010 12:22pm Jul 6, 2010 12:22pm
[quote=cloggie;3854395]Don't fret you are not the only one, the hardest thing to learn in trading is to admit that you are wrong, your brain will do anything it can to avoid admitting defeat. It is kind of funny, lots of traders can't see a new trend until they have closed a trade that they have carried deep in the red, then all of a sudden it dawns on them and they kick themselves for not seeing it sooner....

Thank you cloggie for this post,
reading this post is very helpful for us newbies.
The cadjpy-thread is a perfect example how NOT to trade.
Averaging down and pyramide trading does not work in the long haule.
Getting ride of these bad habbits could only improve newbies trackrecord.

Good luck for the Oranjes today, one more push for the dreamfinal,
hope we pass Spain
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