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  • #266,881
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:39pm Jul 2, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting PipVip
Suntrader, Are you suggesting this was typical market behavior and not the result of central bank manipulation?
Yes.

Unless I can be shown evidence to back it up and not just media or internet speculation.
  • #266,882
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:40pm Jul 2, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting Jay Walker
No. In fact, I enjoy the manipulation
Hey who doesn't.
  • #266,883
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:41pm Jul 2, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting SunTrader
Yes.

Unless I can be shown evidence to back it up and not just media or internet speculation.
OK then, we simply disagree on a 4.7 Standard Deviation in variance.
  • #266,884
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:41pm Jul 2, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting cloggie
Exactly, and once methane is dissolved in water it is retained by it, reducing the likelyhood of escaping into the atmosphere and making it to Florida even less. The oil spill is 40% natural gas, so methane is present, but cows on land are a greater danger to methane exposure then an underwater oil leak.

I love all these blogs and forums spouting up everywhere warning of the impending doom of Florida blowing up because of the oil leak, but there is no scientific fact to warrant it. Eyjafjallajökull

I didn't think methane dissolved in water. Was under the impression it was stored in sediments in the ocean floor. I remember seeing a show on discovery about this awhile back saying if a certain amount of the gas stored in these sediments was released it would create a sort of run away greenhouse effect. Was awhile ago when I saw this so I could have facts wrong though.
  • #266,885
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:41pm Jul 2, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting mikekneip
i disagree, fundamentally speaking EUR/USD should be oscillating between 1.20 and 1.30 ... 1.1 would be undervalued, but that doesnt mean that it is not going to happen anyways
I having a hard time understanding the reference to currency over- or under-valued. If you say that 1.1 is undervalue, what determine that? If we believe that the currency markets are driven by demand and supply(which I do not, its only partially true), then every number below the current value is Under-valued and all above is Over-valued, so there is no purpose in trying to determine Over- or Under-Value, its based on current value...

Your remark "Fundamentally speaking..." do we have a formula that we can use to determine the Fundamental Value of a currency pair, like we can determine the Fundamental Value of a company stock?
(These questions are not meant to be sarcastic but is something I really have a hard time to understand) Thanks to any one who can respond.
  • #266,886
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:42pm Jul 2, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting cloggie
Exactly, and once methane is dissolved in water it is retained by it, reducing the likelyhood of escaping into the atmosphere and making it to Florida even less. The oil spill is 40% natural gas, so methane is present, but cows on land are a greater danger to methane exposure then an underwater oil leak.
Maybe but even the most militant Greenpeace activist likes to sneak a burger every now and then. So we both know what the greenies will be bitching about the most.

Quoting cloggie
I love all these blogs and forums spouting up everywhere warning of the impending doom of Florida blowing up because of the oil leak, but there is no scientific fact to warrant it. Eyjafjallajökull
You don't need scientific facts to prove anything.

Inserted Video
Not all sins are created equal
  • #266,887
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:42pm Jul 2, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting KumoDragon
Looks like EU may have done a weekly retrace. Just tested the tenkan-sen line on ichi charts.

What does everyone think? Possibility of shorts being much stronger next week?
Possibly. We'll just have to wait and see.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #266,888
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:44pm Jul 2, 2010 12:44pm
now that eur is doing what am expecting,i can now set my terget to the @1.2195.....lot of pips.let see how it goes
  • #266,889
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:44pm Jul 2, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Awesome
I didn't think methane dissolved in water. Was under the impression it was stored in sediments in the ocean floor. I remember seeing a show on discovery about this awhile back saying if a certain amount of the gas stored in these sediments was released it would create a sort of run away greenhouse effect. Was awhile ago when I saw this so I could have facts wrong though.

It dissolves very well, more so at colder temperatures. So as the leak is deep underwater the solluble solution will form an inversion layer preventing it from rising. It will need an external force to rise as the temperature of the water increases with height thereby reducing the amount of methane the water can hold.

You can dissolve 0.04 grams of Methane per 1 kg of water at 0 degrees centrigrade and only 0.025 grams when water reaches 20 degrees, so it will happily sit there at depth and not able to rise.

Like JW says, rumours about impending doom sells newspapers, boring scientific facts doesn't, and how convenient to blame the drop in new home sales to BP. Obamarama can skirt that issue too now.

NFP was great because 600k people were no longer counted as unemployed. They still are ememployed but are apparantly all at the beach enjoying the beautiful white sands with a beer instead of "looking" for work, making them "excempt"
  • #266,890
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:48pm Jul 2, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting netrader06
Geez..I just saw that and could not help to reply........
I was directing at anyone who throws the word around without any clear evidence of same.

I agree that one can just as easily benefit as lose from "manipulation" or perceived "manipulation". It is just better to trade price and concern themselves less with whatever the cause of the move is.

Buy the rumor, sell the news works. Yet traders will forever concern themselves with what the news was, repeat was.
  • #266,891
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:49pm Jul 2, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting cloggie
It dissolves very well, more so at colder temperatures. So as the leak is deep underwater the solluble solution will form an inversion layer preventing it from rising. It will need an external force to rise as the temperature of the water increases with height thereby reducing the amount of methane the water can hold.

You can dissolve 0.04 grams of Methane per 1 kg of water at...

I generally hit my Time share in Kissimee, and head over to Port Saint Lucie every August, so I'll ask around about that once i get there. Never been to the Gulf side though.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #266,892
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:49pm Jul 2, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting PipVip
....... 4.7 Standard Deviation in variance.
WTF.

Yeah, I guess so.

Am I in double secret probation now?
  • #266,893
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:49pm Jul 2, 2010 12:49pm
What you guys think about shorting EURAUD?
  • #266,894
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:51pm Jul 2, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting Predi
What you guys think about shorting EURAUD?

I just did..I short at 1.4920 with 70 pips SL...but with 1% equity only...

Just one thing to keep in mind...it is on STRONG uptrend now.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #266,895
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:52pm Jul 2, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting cloggie
Like JW says, rumours about impending doom sells newspapers


Yeah, and South Park DVD's too.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #266,896
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:54pm Jul 2, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting SunTrader
I was directing at anyone who throws the word around without any clear evidence of same.

I agree that one can just as easily benefit as lose from "manipulation" or perceived "manipulation". It is just better to trade price and concern themselves less with whatever the cause of the move is.

Buy the rumor, sell the news works. Yet traders will forever concern themselves with what the news was, repeat was.

It is all speculation. But in the same way I have no concrete evidence that it was manipulation, you have no concrete evidence that it was not. But yeah, regardless of what caused the move, all you can do is trade what you see and use proper mm to protect yourself should a move like this work against you.
  • #266,897
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:55pm Jul 2, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting SunTrader
WTF.

Yeah, I guess so.

Am I in double secret probation now?
I had to read that sentence twice and try to get my mind out of the gutter.

My attempt failed
Not all sins are created equal
  • #266,898
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:55pm Jul 2, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting Awesome
I didn't think methane dissolved in water. Was under the impression it was stored in sediments in the ocean floor. I remember seeing a show on discovery about this awhile back saying if a certain amount of the gas stored in these sediments was released it would create a sort of run away greenhouse effect. Was awhile ago when I saw this so I could have facts wrong though.
Pretty much any gas will dissolve to some degree in water, but eventually the water can hold no more - it gets saturated. Google Lake Nyos. The lake got saturated with so much carbon dioxide it eventually exploded and killed 1700 people; mostly by suffocation. So all the fear mongering is because some people are saying the methane will eventually release causing a tidal wave or it could ignite when it does so and create a fire storm. No real evidence this will happen, just speculation. I guess Florida is worried because they think all the methane saturated water will somehow make it there?
  • #266,899
  • Edited 1:09pm Jul 2, 2010 12:58pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting Protogenos
Pretty much any gas will dissolve to some degree in water, but eventually the water can hold no more - it gets saturated. Google Lake Nyos. The lake got saturated with so much carbon dioxide it eventually exploded and killed 1700 people; mostly by suffocation. So all the fear mongering is because some people are saying the methane will eventually release causing a tidal wave or it could ignite when it does so and create a fire storm. No real evidence this will happen, just speculation. I guess Florida is worried because they think all the methane...

Absolutely correct, but there is a big difference here, the bottom of the GOM is cold and the top is warm so there is no way the gas can make it up unless there is a disturbance, cold water cannot rise on its own to the top unless it is heated, so as long as everybody stops trowing their fagends in the Gulf, we are pretty safe.

And BTW Nyos was CO2 and Methane (CH4) cannot form CO2 unless it is burned. Nyos started because of the heating of the magma on the bottom, no volcanos in the GOM.

And the Methane saturated water can never make it there, never seen cold water flow uphill pushing warm water out of the way, the day that happens is the day Newton's laws are reversed and we have bigger things to worry about, like gravity stopping and apples flying back into trees.
  • #266,900
  • Jul 2, 2010 1:06pm Jul 2, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I had to read that sentence twice and try to get my mind out of the gutter.

My attempt failed
Wonder how AK's deviation variance is today?
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