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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,721
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:43pm Jun 30, 2010 7:43pm
Here are some interesting thoughts (maybe). I decided to pull up the monthly chart so I could see price action from 1993 until today.

1. In June 1995 an uptrend was started.

2. This uptrend lasted exactly 3 years to June 1998 (highest green candle, but 2 months later, price went slightly up before coming down a lot).

3. Current downtrend started July 2007.

4. We are about to enter July 2010, exactly 3 years later.

5. Signs of potential leveling off, Japanese "watching" it and sentiment perhaps changing some. Going up?

6. Although, April and June's candles look like what happened in Jan/Feb 1995. The next 2 months, UJ dropped from 97 to 80. Going down?

Anyway, just noticed this today and thought I'd share. Check it out for yourself in case I messed anything up.

Should be fun to watch.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,722
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:55pm Jun 30, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting Kas1
i'm short from 88831 still...target has not changed, looking for 88181...i see support at 88283 and resistance, 88725...looking to take another short form 88725 for the next couple hours
target was hit...looks like 88283 will be new resistance...
  • #16,723
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:20pm Jun 30, 2010 9:20pm
Wow, there is some real long-term stuff happening on the weekly. My attached image shows that we are skimming the downtrend line that we broke out off in March. Very important support. If broken, could lead to big moves. My guess is that it holds and leads to a big move up over the next few weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 20 KB
  • #16,724
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:28pm Jun 30, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting wontfindanam
Wow, there is some real long-term stuff happening on the weekly. My attached image shows that we are skimming the downtrend line that we broke out off in March. Very important support. If broken, could lead to big moves. My guess is that it holds and leads to a big move up over the next few weeks.
That would be my guess too....but it's only a guess! I'm VERY keen to see what this says at NFP time.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,725
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:38pm Jun 30, 2010 9:38pm
Was listening to Bloomberg Asia and they said that given the Tankan Manufacturing Index numbers, the BoJ might now feel like it doesn't need to do anything.

Waiting to see if it breaks 88.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,726
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:57pm Jun 30, 2010 9:57pm
Quoting RebelRed
Was listening to Bloomberg Asia and they said that given the Tankan Manufacturing Index numbers, the BoJ might now feel like it doesn't need to do anything.

Waiting to see if it breaks 88.


http://www.forexlive.com/116432/all/...-towards-88-00
  • #16,727
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:12pm Jun 30, 2010 10:12pm
Saw another article on that site about Kampo buying dips at 89. Didn't help any.

Don't know much about what they are trying to do though.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,728
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:02pm Jun 30, 2010 11:02pm
Quoting Kas1
i see support at 88283 and resistance, 88725...looking to take another short form 88725 for the next couple hours


target was hit...looks like 88283 will be new resistance...
Quoting RebelRed
Still just reason to short for me. The 60m chart shows about 88.36 as the level it keeps testing. And action went from a sideways trend to breaking south.

Waiting to see. Could hover around this point for quite a bit.

I think there's a lot of downside potential still (actually posted this days back).

Break through of 88.20 might show this. I think that's the last battleground for a bit. Next point of reference is 85 level.

Who knows.

Will UJ spike down when NFP comes out? hmmm
chartwise tend to share similar sentiments with both of u with regards to the chart analysis ...

good, quality postings
  • #16,729
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:24am Jul 1, 2010 12:24am
took another short from 88283 resistance, 87855 target...not going so well off the bat...looks like a pullback in search for some stops...2 to 1 r/r
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #16,730
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:41am Jul 1, 2010 12:41am
the Japanese are looking at the USD / JPY! some rumors that KAMPO will buy 87.70 ~ 87.80. I will now seek more information about this possible intervention. Some people who have already started making yen purchases (retail), the bank is in great demand after a Japanese TV report said the dollar bill was very cheap and that the long term the yen would come to cost 100 yen per dollar . Began the race to purchase, least here in Japan!!!!!!!!!!!
..television until the government uses to make the speech! without attracting much attention!
  • #16,731
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:54am Jul 1, 2010 12:54am
Yeah Mary. Sounds to me like Japan is walking a fine line and there's some disagreement about what to do. The last thing they want is anything that takes away growth.

BTW, are you looking for UJ to go down or up?
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,732
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:01am Jul 1, 2010 1:01am
BTW, here's another interesting note. In the end of Nov 2009, the Japanese government was concerned with the Yen's strength. It was about 88.20---where it is now.

They did something about it and the UJ went up after that.

4-6 weeks later, it went from 88.20ish up to 93.60ish.

Here's a story from Dec 1, 2009 about it:
http://blog.taragana.com/business/20...ap-loans-5085/

A lot of interesting things lining up historically right now.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,733
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:04am Jul 1, 2010 1:04am
Quoting RebelRed
Yeah Mary. Sounds to me like Japan is walking a fine line and there's some disagreement about what to do. The last thing they want is anything that takes away growth.

BTW, are you looking for UJ to go down or up?

Japan generates its riches from exporting products, all Japanese know that a dollar value of 85 ~ 88 hinders the sale of their products! unfortunately Japan knows it!

I want to enter the market by buying USD / JPY, the time is right!
but the question that remains is the data tomorrow (NPF)
  • #16,734
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:15am Jul 1, 2010 1:15am
Looking back on the weekly charts, it would make sense to be bouncing off the 88.00 therefore a long with TP in the 92.00 area makes sense.
  • #16,735
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:16am Jul 1, 2010 1:16am
Quoting Mary Silvert
Japan generates its riches from exporting products, all Japanese know that a dollar value of 85 ~ 88 hinders the sale of their products! unfortunately Japan knows it!

I want to enter the market by buying USD / JPY, the time is right!
but the question that remains is the data tomorrow (NPF)
Yeah, there's a Bloomberg article about it too.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...deflation.html

Looking over history, they may be moved to act. In that article, it said (talking about Japan's National Strategy Minister, Satoshi Arai):

"He said it’s not clear how long the yen will keep gaining and the currency’s strength may be temporary.”

The NFP report is going to be interesting.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,736
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:51am Jul 1, 2010 1:51am
Quoting RebelRed
Yeah, there's a Bloomberg article about it too.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...deflation.html

Looking over history, they may be moved to act. In that article, it said (talking about Japan's National Strategy Minister, Satoshi Arai):

"He said it’s not clear how long the yen will keep gaining and the currency’s strength may be temporary.”

The NFP report is going to be interesting.
That sentence may (or may not) be a warning!

I don't watch NPF because I hate it, but next week should be interesting
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,737
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:53am Jul 1, 2010 1:53am
USDJPY is just waiting to get up there

will make at least 100 pips on this trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy just waiting to get up there.png Size: 27 KB
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #16,738
  • Edited 2:40am Jul 1, 2010 2:08am | Edited 2:40am
Quoting RebelRed
Yeah, there's a Bloomberg article about it too.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...deflation.html

Looking over history, they may be moved to act. In that article, it said (talking about Japan's National Strategy Minister, Satoshi Arai):

"He said it’s not clear how long the yen will keep gaining and the currency’s strength may be temporary.”

The NFP report is going to be interesting.
News: http://www.reuters.com/article/idCAT...0100701?rpc=44

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ts-record.html


effect of exchange between dollar and yen
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...rom-japan.html
  • #16,739
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:09am Jul 1, 2010 4:09am
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely strong as risk aversion kept crosses lower and USD/JPY tested Y88.40 support. Traders are wary of Sub Y88 levels as when get close to levels that may prompt intervention talk from Japanese officials. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.36 and a high of 88.79 before closing the day around 88.50 in the New York session. UPDATE Q2 TANKAN SURVEY +1 vs. -4 forecast.

Source: http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100...y-1st-july.htm
  • #16,740
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:10am Jul 1, 2010 4:10am
Quoting wontfindanam
Wow, there is some real long-term stuff happening on the weekly. My attached image shows that we are skimming the downtrend line that we broke out off in March. Very important support. If broken, could lead to big moves. My guess is that it holds and leads to a big move up over the next few weeks.
hello friend,
you believe that we will have a sharp reversal in prices? would be an ideal time to enter long??
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