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  • #265,501
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:54pm Jun 30, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
I don't have an exact date on the stress test results; if someone's got a hard date, I'd love to know....
How did they just dump it back onto the ECB.. wouldn't that debt need to be rolled over as well?

So you think there implications of risk aversion for tomorrows 12-month LTRO expiry?

Thanks,
Jag
  • #265,502
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:55pm Jun 30, 2010 6:55pm
hate to say this buddy.
eu is going up sooner than we thought.... though not much. i placed my buy stop at 2245.
  • #265,503
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:55pm Jun 30, 2010 6:55pm
Quoting ak4x
That one Bit us both.... I got it patched and repaired already tho.
Glad to hear you recovered without much pain. I covered some of my short into the pop to reduce leverage to a comfortable level, but really wasn't damaged very much either.

It was a great lesson for me though. I've mostly dealt with US-centric trades in the past and have always known when critical events would occur. I need to make sure that I do the same with Europe.
  • #265,504
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:01pm Jun 30, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting sidhujag
How did they just dump it back onto the ECB.. wouldn't that debt need to be rolled over as well?

So you think there implications of risk aversion for tomorrows 12-month LTRO expiry?

Thanks,
Jag
The ECB doesn't have to roll the debt on their books, just as the Federal Reserve doesn't have to roll the $1.1Trillion in Mortgage Backed Securities on their books. Don't open this link unless you're sitting down. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/
Well, at least they've got their leverage 'down' to the low 30s:1.
  • #265,505
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:03pm Jun 30, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
I don't have an exact date on the stress test results; if someone's got a hard date, I'd love to know....
i dont have a date but it supposed to be around July 1 on.
i doubt its any real test. just lipstick. a good looking women is a good looking women with or without it. a pig is a pig with or without it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,506
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:04pm Jun 30, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
I don't have an exact date on the stress test results; if someone's got a hard date, I'd love to know. This is an article .
i think this is just more of what you said... but it's straight from a BIS report...

"...Therefore, last Thursday the heads of governments of the EU member states agreed that the results of stress tests on their respective banks will be published in the second half of July..."
http://www.bis.org/review/r100624a.pdf
FUBAR...
  • #265,507
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:08pm Jun 30, 2010 7:08pm
convergence of quarter pivot at 2218 and xx20 pysch level make 2220 a stinker of a support level tonite. if busted, then it's a clue... if not, then also a clue.
FUBAR...
  • #265,508
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:10pm Jun 30, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
at a good place atm.. upper levels may cap at 2235/38 if so that's the risk. currently 2223
testing 2238 now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #265,509
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:14pm Jun 30, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
i dont have a date but it supposed to be around July 1 on.
i doubt its any real test. just lipstick. a good looking women is a good looking women with or without it. a pig is a pig with or without it.

bull becomes bear. Can it be bro? hahaha
  • #265,510
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:15pm Jun 30, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
I need to make sure that I do the same with Europe.
check out the SNB intervention policies the last few months... you should find it interesting. especially the current (apparent) change in policy.
FUBAR...
  • #265,511
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:16pm Jun 30, 2010 7:16pm
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-07-01_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (DJ).pdf (17.6 KB)


EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by negative risk sentiment, Moody's announcement yesterday it would review Spain's AAA credit rating for possible downgrade (following lead of S&P, Fitch); concerns about liquidity shortfall after today's expiry of more than EUR440 billion in ECB 12-month tenders; weaker-than-expected euro-zone June flash CPI (up 1.4% on year vs forecast for 1.5% rise), smaller-than-expected 21,000 decline in German June jobless (vs forecast for 25,000 drop). But EUR sentiment soothed by lower-than-expected EUR131.9 billion take-up of ECB's 91-day refinancing tender yesterday (vs anticipated demand as high as EUR250 billion), news Ireland had officially exited recession in 1Q; German presidential vote win by Chancellor Merkel's candidate Christian Wulff providing relief German support for recent Greek debt bailout would continue. Data focus: 0600 GMT German May retail sales, 0755 GMT German June manufacturing PMI, 0800 GMT euro-zone June manufacturing PMI. EUR/USD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics falling from overbought, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 1.2164 (yesterday's low), then at 1.2149 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2043 (June 11 low), then 1.1954 (June 10 low) and 1.1875 (4-year low set June 7). Resistance at 1.2304 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2397 (Monday's high), then 1.2490 (June 21 high), 1.2560 (55-day moving average) and 1.2672 (May 21 reaction high).
Dow Jones NewswiresJune 30, 2010 19:36 ET (23:36 GMT)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-07-01_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (DJ).pdf   18 KB | 564 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #265,512
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:17pm Jun 30, 2010 7:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
testing 2238 now
tonite that's the daily and central together ---> 2234/36 levels


15m and 1hr 50ema at 2240/44 as well.

ADD: A hard break of the DP/CP could easily give us M3 zone a'rd 2270ish. That converges with a descending TL on the 1hr. we'll see
FUBAR...
  • #265,513
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:20pm Jun 30, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting ak4x
convergence of quarter pivot at 2218 and xx20 pysch level make 2220 a stinker of a support level tonite. if busted, then it's a clue... if not, then also a clue.
either way, I am clue-less. Don't know where I am heading to....

Anyway, you all make me happy as I dont need to dig the info at all. I am alway getting a free Info at FF. You guys are all hardworking!
  • #265,514
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:26pm Jun 30, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting ptistrader
You guys are all hardworking!
hardposting is not hard work
Follow the Trend, thats all
  • #265,515
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:31pm Jun 30, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting ak4x
check out the SNB intervention policies the last few months... you should find it interesting. especially the current (apparent) change in policy.
Yeah, I've been watching that. They had to stop because they were loaded to the gills with Euros. Check out this link: http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/stat/sta.../stats/statmon
Click on A3 2.
  • #265,516
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:34pm Jun 30, 2010 7:34pm
I'm seeing a bull wedge on 4h. Anyone see that? Or am I missing something...
  • #265,517
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:35pm Jun 30, 2010 7:35pm
Just pondering my 6h and 8h charts which look early bearish to me, but the 12hr is not in synch with them yet and could tilt either way... so keeping the stinkeye on the shorter TF's for the sea change signals...

and yet swissy sitting just above STIFF long term support levels a'rd 0740/60ish now that comment jetzz made about the test releases providing catalyst for yoorow strength has me thinking....

and thinking makes my head hurt...

but earlier today i made a reference to "the giddy factor " in the markets making folks do weird things,,,, that may be what i was seeing.

if so, then the short TF's will show that and i'll go flat till next week sooner than I'd expected to. That'll likely be one roller coaster ride I can sit out...

In the immortal words of Bemac...
Quoting Bemac
We endeavour to avoid the room with the Whips but, occasionally, we do stumble into it. Then the quest becomes finding the Fastest Exit.

GL TD.
FUBAR...
  • #265,518
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:38pm Jun 30, 2010 7:38pm
Quoting thelws
I'm seeing a bull wedge on 4h. Anyone see that? Or am I missing something...
What I am seeing is a couple of candles with long wicks above the bodies - representing selling.
  • #265,519
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:41pm Jun 30, 2010 7:41pm
G'day folks!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #265,520
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:42pm Jun 30, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting thelws
I'm seeing a bull wedge on 4h. Anyone see that? Or am I missing something...
Yeah i posted the chart earlier with the MACD...Its just something to watch is all, there may not be anything in it. Price isn't showing any kind of gusto which would give it lots of weight right now.

Overall I'm bearish here, though I'm not in trade. The 4hr MACD although reading bullish will easily get buried if the sellers are there.

Everything feels like a bear. To me just that one thing to keep an eye on.
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